oldmanfan Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, MAJBobby said: There it is notice the WIN % drop after the punt http://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=400951560 As I suspected no real analysis of factors such as the conditions. t's a graph and does not give me any idea what data they use to generate their numbers. I have taken graduate level stats. You need to buck up on your understanding of statistics before making claims that the math proved he was wrong. You don't understand what you're looking at.
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, oldmanfan said: As I suspected no real analysis of factors such as the conditions. t's a graph and does not give me any idea what data they use to generate their numbers. I have taken graduate level stats. You need to buck up on your understanding of statistics before making claims that the math proved he was wrong. You don't understand what you're looking at. Yeah VARIABLEs I got it. I am done with this conversation. and No I do not need to buck up on anything thank you very much.
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, oldmanfan said: They get it at their 40. Even if they don't make a yard, their punter kicks it say 40 yards and now we are on our 20 yard line. And have to go at least 70 yards with likely no time outs (because I assume we use our two to save time), and because passing is so difficult it would be difficult to pass and get guys out of bounds to stop the clock. As I said before I would have run on fourth down. But you and others seem to want to ignore the field conditions, when that was the single biggest aspect of the game yesterday. The thinking had to accommodate that. The most amazing play I've seen in a long time was the pass to Thompson. Incredible. No I'm actually factoring in the field conditions. They are essentially 15 to 20 yards away from winning the game and I thought that would be their only chance to score given those conditions you're referring to. I did not want the bills to start in their own territory because of the awful field conditions and knowing we have a 3rd string QB. Hey it worked out because of a couple lucky plays . But does not mean it was the right call
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: There it is notice the WIN % drop after the punt http://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=400951560 This is the part of the argument that holds absolutely no water. You are using an ESPN simulation that dropped about 2% and has NOTHING to do with this actual game, these conditions, these players, etc... So basically you are digging your heels in because of a flawed model that shows a 2% decrease in win percentage.
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, dubs said: This is the part of the argument that holds absolutely no water. You are using an ESPN simulation that dropped about 2% and has NOTHING to do with this actual game, these conditions, these players, etc... So basically you are digging your heels in because of a flawed model that shows a 2% decrease in win percentage. Got it Variables cool like I said I am done with this conversation
Gugny Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: I don't care about the first two but that punt you are referring to was almost the reason the Bills are out of the playoffs today. Out of curiosity, if Brissett hits Hilton for that wide open pass on the last drive, are you singing the same tune today? Cause that would have ended the bills season Can't play the if game. What if Tolbert hadn't fumbled. That would have set up putting the game on ice. What if Peterman didn't get hurt and we weren't left with Webb III (or was it Taylor II)? Had he gone for it and come up short, there would be 17 threads calling for McD's head saying, "how the !@#$ do you go for it with a 3rd string QB in that weather?!?!?" You know it as well as I do.
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, MAJBobby said: Got it Variables cool like I said I am done with this conversation Those things matter. I am not saying you're wrong to want him to go for it. I am just saying it's not scientific like you are trying to make it out to be and it certainly wasn't an obvious call one way or another. The rationale for punting in that situation is actually pretty reasonable, just as going for it would have been.
oldmanfan Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: No I'm actually factoring in the field conditions. They are essentially 15 to 20 yards away from winning the game and I thought that would be their only chance to score given those conditions you're referring to. I did not want the bills to start in their own territory because of the awful field conditions and knowing we have a 3rd string QB. Hey it worked out because of a couple lucky plays . But does not mean it was the right call Yeah, I would agree with you on going for it. I would have as well and if your offense can't get you a yard when you really need one then you deserve what you get. I am simply saying I can understand the rationale even though I would have made a different decision. I would take exception to luck being the difference. You rely on your punter to make a play and he did, you rely on your defense to hold and they did. And then you rely on your offense to make a play (which of course he also could have done on the fourth and one), and they did. The only luck I guess was the pass to Thompson, but Webb made a great throw and he made a great catch.
teef Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Gugny said: Can't play the if game. What if Tolbert hadn't fumbled. That would have set up putting the game on ice. What if Peterman didn't get hurt and we weren't left with Webb III (or was it Taylor II)? Had he gone for it and come up short, there would be 17 threads calling for McD's head saying, "how the !@#$ do you go for it with a 3rd string QB in that weather?!?!?" You know it as well as I do. this exactly. at some point people just have to realize the call worked out, and that the game was won. i swear, some people on here aren't happy unless they're complaining about something. the what if game is just the worst.
oldmanfan Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, dubs said: Those things matter. I am not saying you're wrong to want him to go for it. I am just saying it's not scientific like you are trying to make it out to be and it certainly wasn't an obvious call one way or another. The rationale for punting in that situation is actually pretty reasonable, just as going for it would have been. Don't bother. When you want to say variables don't affect statistics it's clear the guy is clueless. This must be I think the third win of the season thus far where people complain more the next day then if they had lost. Bizarre behavior.
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Gugny said: Can't play the if game. What if Tolbert hadn't fumbled. That would have set up putting the game on ice. What if Peterman didn't get hurt and we weren't left with Webb III (or was it Taylor II)? Had he gone for it and come up short, there would be 17 threads calling for McD's head saying, "how the !@#$ do you go for it with a 3rd string QB in that weather?!?!?" You know it as well as I do. Not me. Even when he went for it on 4th and 6 and didn't get it I applauded him. Every decision isn't going to workout. But at least give your team the best chance to win. And I don't think he did that by punting it
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, oldmanfan said: Don't bother. When you want to say variables don't affect statistics it's clear the guy is clueless. I just don't understand why everything has to be so black and white. I was pissed when they went for it, psyched for it that they won but still mind boggled by the call. But as I thought through it after the fact, I really started to understand how it made sense. I just hadn't thought about it that way in the heat of the moment. I really think either way was totally defendable. That's not always the case but I think it was here.
Bob in STL Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) Fans and Sports writer have it easy. We have the always safe option of the second guess. Suppose the Bills go for it on that fourth and one situation, and like the previous two fourth downs they fail. The Colts are now about 25-30 yards away from a long FG but with the wind at their backs and veteran clutch kicker ready to try again. The Bills are likely a bit demoralized as the defense trots out there hoping for a stop to save the tie. After giving up a very long drive in the fourth quarter I do not like our chances in this scenario at all. We will never know, and it is pointless to argue, but it is likely that the Colts would have had a shot at winning the game. The punt gives your defense a better chance to succeed but the punt is correct the decision only if your defense holds and you get the ball back in time to win. Both happened and we won. Yet many experts fans, most of whom never played or coached, cannot accept this. They insist on railing on the coach. I love to second guess ... I think that McD should have punted on the 2 fourth downs in regulation and played for the field position when there was more time to do so. I also think he should have gone for 2 points after our first TD. I also think he should have not punted in OT. I would be wrong and he would be correct. I accept that outcome, we won the game and I am happy. I fully realize that I belong on the sofa watching the game with a beer in hand. Why can't most of you do the same? Calling for his firing is just plain ridiculous. Listening to the sports writers and sportscasters is not productive. Great win Coach! Now get us ready for next week! Edited December 11, 2017 by Bob in STL
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 I think McD made the right call, it was a 50/50 call and the HC gets to make it to determine if we win or lose. 1
Gugny Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: Not me. Even when he went for it on 4th and 6 and didn't get it I applauded him. Every decision isn't going to workout. But at least give your team the best chance to win. And I don't think he did that by punting it Insinuating that he did not give the team the best chance to win the game .. the day after they won said game ... doesn't compute with me.
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob in STL said: Fans and Sports writer have it easy. We have the always safe option of the second guess. Suppose the Bills go for it on that fourth and one situation, and like the previous two fourth downs they fail. The Colts are now about 25-30 yards away from a long FG but with the wind at their backs and veteran clutch kicker ready to try again. The Bills are likely a bit demoralized as the defense trots out there hoping for a stop to save the tie. After giving up a very long drive in the fourth quarter I do not like our chances in this scenario at all. We will never know, and it is pointless to argue, but it is likely that the Colts would have had a shot at winning the game. The punt gives your defense a better chance to succeed but the punt is correct the decision only if your defense holds and you get the ball back in time to win. Both happened and we won. Yet many experts fans, most of whom never played or coached, cannot accept this. They insist on railing on the coach. I love to second guess ... I think that McD should have punted on the 2 fourth downs in regulation and played for the field position when there was more time to do so. I also think he should have gone for 2 points after our first TD. I also think he should have not punted in OT. I would be wrong and he would be correct. I accept that outcome, we won the game and I am happy. I fully realize that I belong on the sofa watching the game with a beer in hand. Why can't most of you do the same? Calling for his firing is just plain ridiculous. Listen to the sports writers and sportscasters is not productive. Great win Coach! Now get us ready for next week! So just because we aren't NFL coaches, we are not aloud to criticize a coach about a decision? Just supposed to kiss his arse no matter what decision he makes?
Patrick Duffy Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Well, guess it's time to go ahead and move past this. Whether you like it or don't (which I didn't like the call), time to move on to Miami.
oldmanfan Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, billsfan11 said: So just because we aren't NFL coaches, we are not aloud to criticize a coach about a decision? Just supposed to kiss his arse no matter what decision he makes? See, this is where you go off the rails. No one is kissing his behind. No one is saying you can't be critical. But what I would say is when folks say they can understand the call, and those who don't reuse to accept things like the weather having an influence (not you but others) it just gets ridiculous. You would agree I suspect that there are those here that look for any excuse to rag on the coach. Even after a win, as has happened several times this year. It just gets over the top.
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, Gugny said: Insinuating that he did not give the team the best chance to win the game .. the day after they won said game ... doesn't compute with me. Ok. Like I said in previous examples. If I play poker and I have pocket 2's pre flop, vs. pocket aces. We go all in before the flop. But I win the hand and beat pocket aces. Does that mean I was in the right odds to win?
oldmanfan Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, billsfan11 said: Ok. Like I said in previous examples. If I play poker and I have pocket 2's pre flop, vs. pocket aces. We go all in before the flop. But I win the hand and beat pocket aces. Does that mean I was in the right odds to win? Depends how much snow affected your hand.
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