MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: If we didn't convert the game was over. We would have lost field position. If Colts get two 1st downs the season is over. And really what did the punt give you where did they take over their own 35
Shaw66 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: If we didn't convert the game was over. We would have lost field position. And the importance of field position is magnified in low-scoring games.
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said: Would you feel better about your defenses chances to get a stop with the other team having to drive on a long field or get a stop with other team with a short field? Doesn't matter do you trust your defense to get the ball back or don't you, cant have it both ways
BillsfanAZ Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Doesn't matter do you trust your defense to get the ball back or don't you, cant have it both ways I think you are just digging in your heels. The defense has a better chance of getting a stop on a long field than they do on a short field. It is less likely for a team to drive 80 yards than it is for a team to drive 35 yards.
HappyDays Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: If Colts get two 1st downs the season is over. And really what did the punt give you where did they take over their own 35 I don't think that's how McDermott thought about it. For the fans we look ahead at every other team's schedule and we've already decided X team will have X wins. We've already decided a tie kicks us put of the playoff race. From McDermott's perspective he needs to get the best possible record and let the chips fall where they may. A tie is better than a loss. He took what seemed like a sure tie or a decent chance to win. Whereas a 4th down failed conversion would have significantly increased our chances of losing. It wasn't an easy decision and I don't think the probability would have been that different either way. He has gone for 4th and shorts before but maybe with Joe Webb as QB it isn't a good idea. Edited December 11, 2017 by HappyDays
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, BillsfanAZ said: I think you are just digging in your heels. The defense has a better chance of getting a stop on a long field than they do on a short field. It is less likely for a team to drive 80 yards than it is for a team to drive 35 yards. Nope just playing the proper %s that have statistically been proven
Andrew Son Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, MAJBobby said: Nope just playing the proper %s that have statistically been proven Statistically proven in those conditions?
BillsfanAZ Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, MAJBobby said: Nope just playing the proper %s that have statistically been proven You keep eluding to this math but havent shown anything. There are no percentages that factor in weather, field conditions, and what players are available.
HappyDays Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: In other words, a tie is not a neutral result. A tie is a positive result. Yes, a win is better. But a tie is more like a win than like a loss. Stated differently, until you absolutely MUST win, it’s more important not to lose than it is to win. Or I could have just quoted this. Exactly what I was thinking Shaw.
Billsfan1972 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: That makes even more head scratching to blow a TO and still punt. We're counting on McDermott to match wits with the best coaches in the game? Does not bode well for this moving forward. And he still defends the Peterman start vs. LAC. Regardless it was 100% wrong and by some fluke it actually worked out....... May be a first for Buffalo.
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, HappyDays said: I don't think that's how McDermott thought about it. For the fans we look ahead at every other team's schedule and we've already decided X team will have X wins. We've already decided a tie kicks us put of the playoff race. From McDermott's perspective he needs to get the best possible record and let the chips fall where they may. A tie is better than a loss. He took what seemed like a sure tie or a decent chance to win. Whereas a 4th down failed conversion would have significantly increased our chances of losing. It wasn't an easy decision and I don't think the probability would have been that different either way. He has gone for 4th and shorts before but maybe with Joe Webb as QB it isn't a good idea. So that makes it better that my HC doesn't look at the big picture. Bills lost a 20% chance to win on the Punt according to Number Fire (an analytics site). So what are the better odds, picking up 1 yard with a team that was AVG 4.5 a carry and over 200 yards on the ground??? Or your ST player driving the 65 yards with No TO and a limited time on the clock?
Wayne Arnold Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 48 minutes ago, HappyDays said: McDermott isn't inherently conservative. We had two 4th down attempts in yesterday's game. We failed to convert both. He probably just trusted the defense more than the offense and who could blame him? I agree that McDermott is not inherently conservative. A lot depends on the next month. If they can finish 9-7 and McDermott replaces Dennison with a young upgrade at OC then I can overlook the game management gaffes and hope he either improves or hires someone to do game and time management for him in 2018.
Shaw66 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, HappyDays said: I don't think that's how McDermott thought about it. For the fans we look ahead at every other team's schedule and we've already decided X team will have X wins. We've already decided a tie kicks us put of the playoff race. From McDermott's perspective he needs to get the best possible record and let the chips fall where they may. A tie is better than a loss. He took what seemed like a sure tie or a decent chance to win. Whereas a 4th down failed conversion would have significantly increased our chances of losing. It wasn't an easy decision and I don't think the probability would have been that different either way. He has gone for 4th and shorts before but maybe with Joe Webb as QB it isn't a good idea. Yes. The important point is that avoiding the loss was more important than getting the win. McDermott got the best of both worlds: He told his defense he had confidence in them, and then his offense took advantage of the opportunity his defense presented. AND he got the win. All while he was protecting his downside by reducing the likelihood of losing, which would have been a killer.
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, SWATeam said: Statistically proven in those conditions? over 15 years of data has been crunched on this you can try to curtail it all you want because you love this coach. but facts are the NUMERS do not lie
HappyDays Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, MAJBobby said: So that makes it better that my HC doesn't look at the big picture. Bills lost a 20% chance to win on the Punt according to Number Fire (an analytics site). So what are the better odds, picking up 1 yard with a team that was AVG 4.5 a carry and over 200 yards on the ground??? Or your ST player driving the 65 yards with No TO and a limited time on the clock? I am willing to bet that website does not account for snow.
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said: You keep eluding to this math but havent shown anything. There are no percentages that factor in weather, field conditions, and what players are available. You really make yourself look like an idiot everytime you say that, go throw yourself through another table Just now, HappyDays said: I am willing to bet that website does not account for snow. Ummm yep they do it is real time based on what is on the field 2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Yes. The important point is that avoiding the loss was more important than getting the win. McDermott got the best of both worlds: He told his defense he had confidence in them, and then his offense took advantage of the opportunity his defense presented. AND he got the win. All while he was protecting his downside by reducing the likelihood of losing, which would have been a killer. So shaw was Rex decision to punt right? (avoiding the loss) what about Marrone (avoiding the loss)
Andrew Son Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: over 15 years of data has been crunched on this you can try to curtail it all you want because you love this coach. but facts are the NUMERS do not lie The "data" can be thrown out the window in such outlier conditions.
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, SWATeam said: The "data" can be thrown out the window in such outlier conditions. ahhh the clichés run well in Buffalo
oldmanfan Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: over 15 years of data has been crunched on this you can try to curtail it all you want because you love this coach. but facts are the NUMERS do not lie 3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: over 15 years of data has been crunched on this you can try to curtail it all you want because you love this coach. but facts are the NUMERS do not lie Go look up the phrase statistical outlier.
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, oldmanfan said: Go look up the phrase statistical outlier. So you like playing for the statistical outlier (rare) or playing within the statistics?
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