Gutless Call to Punt

[BillnutinHouston]

16 hours ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

I'm a McD fan and I don't think that was the right call. If anything, THATS the time for Toldozer. 

 

There is NO time for Toldozer.  He's done.

[teef]

44 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Ole Sammy Watkins got another 3 receptions.  That's 34 for the year.

well...the coach is telling people not to throw to him.

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, teef said:

well...the coach is telling people not to throw to him.

 

It's criminal Kupp is getting more production....it's just criminal.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It's criminal Kupp is getting more production....it's just criminal.

Yeah.  It's really ruining their record so far.

Watkins is losing a lot of $$ this year.

[26CornerBlitz]

How did this turn into a Watkins thread?

[oldmanfan]

Regarding the call, if anything it took a lot of guts to rely on pinning them down in their end.  Gutless is the opposite of what that call was.

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Yeah.  It's really ruining their record so far.

Watkins is losing a lot of $$ this year.

 

I can see Watkins getting a similar contract to like Terrell Pryor like a 1 year/$8 million.  

He's got talent but the production just isn't there with Watkins.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[MAJBobby]

I slept on it and looked more rationally. 

 

Yep still the wrong decision to punt on 4th and 1. 

 

And even worse decision to call the TO before said punt 

Edited December 11, 2017 by MAJBobby

[26CornerBlitz]

9 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I slept on it and looked more rationally. 

 

Yep still the wrong decision to punt on 4th and 1. 

 

And even worse decision to call the TO before said punt 

 

That makes it even more head scratching to blow a TO and still punt.   We're counting on McDermott to match wits with the best coaches in the game?   Does not bode well for this moving forward. 

Edited December 11, 2017 by 26CornerBlitz

[Gugny]

3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

That makes even more head scratching to blow a TO and still punt.   We're counting on McDermott to match wits with the best coaches in the game?   Does not bode well for this moving forward. 

 

I was baffled by the TO call, as well.  But he's a rookie head coach and this game had a lot riding on it.  I don't think it's any indication that, moving forward, he won't get better with his decision-making and time out management.

[Royale with Cheese]

11 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I slept on it and looked more rationally. 

 

Yep still the wrong decision to punt on 4th and 1. 

 

And even worse decision to call the TO before said punt 

 

I thought for sure he re-thought the punt and was going to send out the offense.  Man was I pissed to see the punting team again.

[HappyDays]

McDermott isn't inherently conservative. We had two 4th down attempts in yesterday's game. We failed to convert both. He probably just trusted the defense more than the offense and who could blame him?

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Chandler#81]

There’s only one possible conclusion to this narrative. The Snow Gods were with us yesterday and showed us mercy. They wouldn’t let the gutless coach end the season in front of the defiant humans who braved their winter wrath for their beleaguered ‘hope against hope’. They forced an otherworldly penalty to take 2 points off the board and blew hard right the XP attempt -to no avail. Even when the huge-headed bumpkin Coach gave the Colts a last minute turnover, they had just enough combined breath left to blow that one inches left of the goalposts. But they found super courage in OT when the melon-headed winter hater tried to screw the hardy faithful by punting on 4th & 1, refusing to win. They chose Incognito -the epitome of anti-Process players- to deftly feign one block, then burst out and clear the lone player with a chance to tackle Shady as he raced to the winning score. 

Thank you, Snow Gods!

I’m through with ‘the Process’.

[MAJBobby]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

McDermott isn't inherently conservative. We had two 4th down attempts in yesterday's game. We failed to convert both. He probably just trusted the defense more than the offense and who could blame him?

 

And again you only can trust the defense after a punt?  What about trusting them if you fail to convert?

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

There’s only one possible conclusion to this narrative. The Snow Gods were with us yesterday and showed us mercy. They wouldn’t let the gutless coach end the season in front of the defiant humans who braved their winter wrath for their beleaguered ‘hope against hope’. They forced an otherworldly penalty to take 2 points off the board and blew hard right the XP attempt -to no avail. Even when the huge-headed bumpkin Coach gave the Colts a last minute turnover, they had just enough combined breath left to blow that one inches left of the goalposts. But they found super courage in OT when the melon-headed winter hater tried to screw the hardy faithful by punting on 4th & 1, refusing to win. They chose Incognito -the epitome of anti-Process players- to deftly feign one block, then burst out and clear the lone player with a chance to tackle Shady as he raced to the winning score. 

Thank you, Snow Gods!

I’m through with ‘the Process’.

 

The football gods say yes to the Bills for once.  

[Shaw66]

 

Punting on 4^th and 1 was the right decision. 

 

Let me start by saying that I was watching the game at a sports bar.  The room was filled with the audio from another game, so I couldn’t hear the announcers for the Bills game.  Looking at the screen, it was impossible to know where the ball was because all the yard markings were obliterated.  The network only occasionally showed in writing where the ball was.  So when they got to 4^th and 1, I thought punting was a good idea because I would have guessed the Bills hadn’t crossed the 50.

 

If I had known that they were at the Colts 41, I would have said go for it.  And that would have been the wrong decision.  Here’s why:

 

The objective is to make the playoffs.  For the coaches and players, that’s all that matters.  And when you get to this point of the season, it’s almost like you’re already in the playoffs. 

 

The over-riding rule in playoffs is “survive and advance.”  In other words, it doesn’t matter how you survive, it doesn’t matter how ugly or how beautiful or whatever.  Survive.  Giving yourself another game where you have a chance is what you need.   Whether you can win that next game is irrelevant; just getting to the next game is all you want – you’ll worry about how to win that game later. 

 

Survive and advance is where the Bills are now, along with all the other teams in the AFC hovering around .500 and trying to get to the postseason. 

 

And in this period when you’re fighting to get into the playoffs, there is a second important point:  Tie games are closer to wins than to losses.   Why?  Well, 9-6-1 gets you into the playoffs over every 9-7 team, so you don’t have to look to tie-breakers.  8-7-1 gets you in over every 8-8 team, and this is one of those years were 8-8 could actually be enough.  

 

In other words, a tie is not a neutral result.   A tie is a positive result.  Yes, a win is better.  But a tie is more like a win than like a loss.  Stated differently, until you absolutely MUST win, it’s more important not to lose than it is to win.

 

Okay, with that in mind, go back to 4^th and 1 at the Colts 41.   I don’t know the exact probabilities, but looking just at winning or losing, I’d say that going for it on fourth down gave the Bills a 50-50 chance of winning or losing.  Why?   Because the chances of making the first down were around 50-50.  Whichever team had the ball on the next play would have had four minutes left and would have needed to move the ball about 25 yards to try a field goal.  The Bills would have needed 25 to get to the 15 to have a shot at 35-yard field goal into the wind, and the Colts would have need 25 to get to the Bills 35 to try a 50-yard field goal with the wind at their back.  We can argue about the percentages and how far they had to go, etc. but I think I’m in the ball park.

 

So in a two-outcome scenario, going for it is more or less a coin toss.   But it isn’t a two-outcome scenario; it’s three outcomes – win, lose or tie.  It isn’t 50-50; it’s more like 40-40-20. 

 

Given that the Bills are in the playoff hunt, and given that in the hunt ties are more like wins than losses, it’s easy to see why punting was the right call.  If the Bills punt, the chances that either the Bills or the Colts will win the game (if those are the only choices) are probably still 50-50.  The Colts have the ball, which is a plus for them, but they have a long way to go.  The Bills don’t have the ball but they have field position, but they also may run out of time.  

 

But those aren't the only choices; it’s a three outcome scenario.  Although if they punt the chances the Bills will win go down, probably pretty dramatically, the chances that they get a tie go way up.  I’d guess that punting with 4 minutes left reduces the chances of the Bills winning in those conditions to 20%, probably less.  But the chances of tying go UP from 20% to 60%. 

 

Remember, in the playoff hunt, winning is the objective, but not losing is more important than winning.  Going for it on 4^th and 1 the Bills had a 60% chance of not losing.   Punting they had an 80% chance of not losing.  Punting was the right call.

 

Survive and advance. 

 

[BillsfanAZ]

12 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And again you only can trust the defense after a punt?  What about trusting them if you fail to convert?

Would you feel better about your defenses chances to get a stop with the other team having to drive on a long field or get a stop with other team with a short field?

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And again you only can trust the defense after a punt?  What about trusting them if you fail to convert?

 

If we didn't convert the game was over. We would have lost field position.