BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) 29 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said: Okay. Put it this way. Why would you let everything ride on one play? Because you are in control of that play? Why not give yourself more plays to control your destiny? Even if that means being on D. That is what a snow game brings to the table more often. He let go. It was gutsy but he did it! Man everything wasn't riding on that one play lol. You are making it sound like it was 4th and 10 from their own 20. It was 4th and 1 from the Colts 40. If they don't get it, stop the colts and you still get the ball back at the 20 yard line with plenty of time... It really wasn't that big of a risk to go for it Edited December 11, 2017 by billsfan11
26CornerBlitz Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 The call to punt worked out, but it's a bad sign for McDermott's so called methodical approach to decsion making.
Gugny Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said: The call to punt worked out, but it's a bad sign for McDermott's so called methodical approach to decsion making. I don't know. It was the Colts, who they'd held scoreless for 3+ quarters. And ... it was the Colts. Had McD gone for it and came up short, then held them to 3 and out, how much different would it have been? I thought he made the right call at the time and I'm glad it worked out.
BuffaloRush Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 5 hours ago, Domdab99 said: A tie does not help this team, right? So why not go for it? If they fail, they still have to stop the Colts, just like if they punt it. But this way, they actually have a better shot at winning the game! Why is this so hard to understand? Like Rex last year, I'm not sure if McDermott knew a tie is barely better than a loss when trying to make the playoffs
ganesh Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 6 hours ago, BillsEnthusiast said: Like I said...the only possible logic here was that McD was hoping for a safety (to win) a pick (to set up a field goal) or a stop so that a field goal would win it. Stupid. I am ok with it. There is no real good answer at that spot at that time. The only thing going against it would have been that we had to win the game...for the Colts, a tie was fine. they did not care. 5 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: The call to punt worked out, but it's a bad sign for McDermott's so called methodical approach to decsion making. why ?
26CornerBlitz Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, ganesh said: I am ok with it. There is no real good answer at that spot at that time. The only thing going against it would have been that we had to win the game...for the Colts, a tie was fine. they did not care. why ? Punting on 4th and 1 at the opponents 41 yard line with the season on the line in OT where a tie pretty much ends playoff hopes, you go for it. Bad decsion with only 4:13 left.
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: Man everything wasn't riding on that one play lol. You are making it sound like it was 4th and 10 from their own 20. It was 4th and 1 from the Colts 40. If they don't get it, stop the colts and you still get the ball back at the 20 yard line with plenty of time... It really wasn't that big of a risk to go for it You are still missing the fact that a kick then wins it for Colts. All they have do is sniff the 25. You still gotta stop them when punting. It was the right choice and only sane one. It was gutsy given today's double down, go for it mentality. And it paid off. In weather like this, for longer drives, you want to strike bigger few plays. BFLo was running out of fuel on that drive. Pin then back, punt, stop... Come out fresh anf full and take big chunks... Which they did. A couple long passes on winning drive sapped Colts.
Domdab99 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said: You are still missing the fact that a kick then wins it for Colts. All they have do is sniff the 25. You still gotta stop them when punting. It was the right choice and only sane one. It was gutsy given today's double down, go for it mentality. And it paid off. In weather like this, for longer drives, you want to strike bigger few plays. BFLo was running out of fuel on that drive. Pin then back, punt, stop... Come out fresh anf full and take big chunks... Which they did. A couple long passes on winning drive sapped Colts. wow
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Punting on 4th and 1 at the opponents 41 yard line with the season on the line in OT where a tie pretty much ends playoff hopes, you go for it. Bad decsion with only 4:13 left. In normal weather I would agree. This was an old-time game. Just now, Domdab99 said: wow All about field position. They gained 14 yards. O-line gets fatigued when playing long drives and numerous plays in this TYPE OF WEATHER. O-line feels it first.
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Domdab99 said: wow I honestly give up trying to convince people. Some people have it drilled in their mind that McD is a god and that it was a great decision to punt because they "won the game".
Rochesterfan Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: The call to punt worked out, but it's a bad sign for McDermott's so called methodical approach to decsion making. I would disagree - I think this fits right into his methodical approach. If you analyze every potential outcome - you find the punt slightly lessens your chance to win, but it also significantly lessens your chance to lose in that game. Going for it and converting - increased your chance to win over punting, but getting stopped would have greatly increased your chance of losing and would have nearly eliminated a shot at winning. For the season - the Bills were 2 for 10 on 4th downs and were now 0-2 in the game so based upon probability they have been converting at a below 20% clip and they had a bunch of runs for no yardage throughout the game. I think if the game had been 40 to 40 and the Bills were 7 for 10 on the season and 3 for 3 in the game - maybe McDermont makes a different choice - maybe not, but his approach tells me all of those factors matter in the decision. 1
26CornerBlitz Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Rochesterfan said: I would disagree - I think this fits right into his methodical approach. If you analyze every potential outcome - you find the punt slightly lessens your chance to win, but it also significantly lessens your chance to lose in that game. Going for it and converting - increased your chance to win over punting, but getting stopped would have greatly increased your chance of losing and would have nearly eliminated a shot at winning. For the season - the Bills were 2 for 10 on 4th downs and were now 0-2 in the game so based upon probability they have been converting at a below 20% clip and they had a bunch of runs for no yardage throughout the game. I think if the game had been 40 to 40 and the Bills were 7 for 10 on the season and 3 for 3 in the game - maybe McDermont makes a different choice - maybe not, but his approach tells me all of those factors matter in the decision. Conservative. Not methodical given the time and scenario. Bad decsion that these defensive minded coaches always make.
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: I honestly give up trying to convince people. Some people have it drilled in their mind that McD is a god and that it was a great decision to punt because they "won the game". Now he's not a God. I think he makes poor choices. But not here. I am usually anto-McD.
Rochesterfan Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: Conservative. Not methodical given the time and scenario. Bad decsion that these defensive minded coaches always make. Agreed - it is a common choice for defensive minded coaches and is frustrating. They typically play to their side of the ball and want to rely on defense and I hate that, just do not think it was not a methodical choice - I think he made a choice based upon his experiences throughout the year and the game. I expect a lot more of these questionable choices over the years.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 I wouldn't call it gutless but typical NFL mind set. However it was completely the wrong call , I rarely agree with Mike Schopp but he was right on this time. Punting there makes it much harder to win. The only thing that helped us was knuckle head Pagano punted too when they absolutely shouldn't have. Unless I'm way ahead or the distance is too far I'd never punt inside the opponents territory.
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Rochesterfan said: Agreed - it is a common choice for defensive minded coaches and is frustrating. They typically play to their side of the ball and want to rely on defense and I hate that, just do not think it was not a methodical choice - I think he made a choice based upon his experiences throughout the year and the game. I expect a lot more of these questionable choices over the years. He went for it on 4-3, first drive of game. It almost cost 3 points which would have lost the game eventually. He should have stuck with field position strategy early on. 1 minute ago, Buffalo Barbarian said: I wouldn't call it gutless but typical NFL mind set. However it was completely the wrong call , I rarely agree with Mike Schopp but he was right on this time. Punting there makes it much harder to win. The only thing that helped us was knuckle head Pagano punted too when they absolutely shouldn't have. Unless I'm way ahead or the distance is too far I'd never punt inside the opponents territory. Even with 4" of snow on field?
THEHARDTRUTH Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 41 minutes ago, Domdab99 said: spoken like a man who has no clue about math or probability Feel free to break it down for us John Forbes Nash.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said: He should have stuck with field position strategy early on. Even with 4" of snow on field? Yep. only needed a yard. With only 4 minutes to play there wasn't enough time to score if the dolts have another long drive. Luckily their coach is a complete moron and punts it back to us.
NoSaint Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 6 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said: Gutless but right. It went exactly how he planned, that's not luck. If if I decide to dump my retirement fund into lotto tix it’s still incredibly lucky if I win. We’re talking odds not outcome.
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, Buffalo Barbarian said: Yep. only needed a yard. With only 4 minutes to play there wasn't enough time to score if the dolts have another long drive. Luckily their coach is a complete moron and punts it back to us. If it's close that yard is impossible to spot. We all know it's going up the middle.
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