Kelly the Dog Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, dubs said: Again, what is the source of your odds? makingcrapup.com actually there are dumb stats like that available and espn showed that one.
Bill_with_it Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rocbillsfan1 said: So you really liked the odds of Webb throwing the longest pass of the day with the game on the line and having to start the final drive around the Bills 35 instead of getting a yard or two on the opponets 40? There were probably better odds of Webb throwing another terrible interception in his own end again. No i think giving the colts the ball 26 yards away from Adams confirmed distance in this weather would be really dumb. Considering they moved the ball fairly well. In this weather make them drive the full length of the field. Pin them back. More opportunities for a sack, fumble, strip, int, or just stop them as we did at their 31. Their punter averaged 38 yards. That puts us at roughly at the 31 if we just let it go. Gave Dennison a little more time to come up with a few more plays than the 5 or six that he ran. Which he clearlt did.
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, Lfod said: Yes it does. You can't get over excited over pocket Aces. Poker hands can project odds because of the limited number of cards. This situation was unlike anything so I’m not sure your metaphor is really applicable.
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, dubs said: Hah! Based on what exactly? Espn has it at 62.4 before the punt and 60.1 after punt. So another showing odds dropped.
Rocbillsfan1 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) 4 minutes ago, dubs said: Again, what is the source of your odds? How bout the common sense odds that you no longer have the ball there's 4 min left in the game and the colts just had a 10+ minute possession. Coaching on both sides was atrocius today. I remember at one point the Colts punted on a 4th and 3 I think from the Bills 32. There should have been no punting by either team once you crossed the other side the field as kicking a fg wasn't really a good option. Edited December 11, 2017 by Rocbillsfan1 1
Bills Pimpin' Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) 25 minutes ago, sullim4 said: In these kinds of situations, I just ask myself, "What would Bill Belichick do?" He'd have gone for it. Obviously. I'd go for it on every 4th and 1 with the GOAT under center. That doesn't make his decisions brilliant 5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Just go look at ESPN its there ESPN. HAHAHAHAHAHA. Edited December 11, 2017 by Bills Pimpin'
Kelly the Dog Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Bill_with_it said: No i think giving the colts the ball 26 yards away from Adams confirmed distance in this weather would be really dumb. Considering they moved the ball fairly well. In this weather make them drive the full length of the field. Pin them back. More opportunities for a sack, fumble, strip, int, or just stop them as we did at their 31. Their punter averaged 38 yards. That puts us at roughly at the 31 if we just let it go. Gave Dennison a little more time to come up with a few more plays than the 5 or six that he ran. Which he clearlt did. You're ignoring the most important element of the decision. We needed to win the game. It didn't matter one bit whether or not the Colts could go the length of the field. If they get twenty yards out season is over. 1
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, dubs said: Poker hands can project odds because of the limited number of cards. This situation was unlike anything so I’m not sure your metaphor is really applicable. You're missing the point bud. I'm saying just because they won the game, doesn't mean it was the correct decision
Bill_with_it Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Those were the REAL TIME ODDS and with the punt did the 3rd string QB still have to complete a deep pass on third down? To a WR cut by Bears?? In a foot of snow?? got it dont want to accept the facts once again you fail to address any of those questions Thise arent real time odds. Those are odds based in things that have previously happened under different circumstances than were of this game. You fail to recognize that very simple fact. As such im not going to reply to your posts there so incorrect and unsubstantiated it’s ridiculous. The posts you post are so emotionally distraught I have sympathy for you.
Nick the Greek Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 At the end of the day, it was the RIGHT call. Kudos to McD.
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Espn has it at 62.4 before the punt and 60.1 after punt. So another showing odds dropped. I get that you are sourcing ESPN. What I’m asking is do you know how they come up with those odds?
Lfod Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, dubs said: Poker hands can project odds because of the limited number of cards. This situation was unlike anything so I’m not sure your metaphor is really applicable. I myself like to use momentum. I'll stay quiet usually. If luck strikes and I win a few hands I'll start bluffing on that momentum swing. Sorry to be off topic but bringing up poker or hold em in general gets in interested in talking poker as well. Poker is fun and anything can happen so I tend to not over value my hands. Edited December 11, 2017 by Lfod
Bill_with_it Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, Kelly the Dog said: You're ignoring the most important element of the decision. We needed to win the game. It didn't matter one bit whether or not the Colts could go the length of the field. If they get twenty yards out season is over. I missed no point. I realized that we need to win. I also realized that giving a short field to an offense that moved 77 yards down the field isnt a good idea. Give them a longer field make them make a mistake or make them punt to play field position. Gives your offensive coordinator and staff a little more time to try and come up with some plays that will get you down the field.
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: You're missing the point bud. I'm saying just because they won the game, doesn't mean it was the correct decision Well, it’s certainly more important of a factor than highly questionable projections or gut feelings or what Mike Schoop and the Browns would do.
Bills Pimpin' Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said: You're ignoring the most important element of the decision. We needed to win the game. It didn't matter one bit whether or not the Colts could go the length of the field. If they get twenty yards out season is over. McD bet that they couldn't. Why is that so hard to understand? IT PLAYED OUT EXACTLY HOW THE COACH THOUGHT IT WOULD WHEN HE PUNTED THE FOOTBALL. THEREFORE HE WAS RIGHT. How is that so hard to understand? The Bills won the football game. Do you know that? It was like the coach was nostra!@#$ingdomas. It was like he had a crystal ball. He made the PERFECT decision for this particular game with this particular team. Is that even arguable?
Kelly the Dog Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said: I missed no point. I realized that we need to win. I also realized that giving a short field to an offense that moved 77 yards down the field isnt a good idea. Give them a longer field make them make a mistake or make them punt to play field position. Gives your offensive coordinator and staff a little more time to try and come up with some plays that will get you down the field. They gained 14 yards on the exchange.
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, dubs said: Well, it’s certainly more important of a factor than highly questionable projections or gut feelings or what Mike Schoop and the Browns would do. Put it this way. I strongly disagree with the decision to punt. And that has nothing to do with the odds ESPN had or whatever. If you agree with it then that's your opinion and fair enough. But don't say it was the correct decision just because they won the game..
Kelly the Dog Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 It wasn't a short field it was a 60 yard field
Rocbillsfan1 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said: I missed no point. I realized that we need to win. I also realized that giving a short field to an offense that moved 77 yards down the field isnt a good idea. Give them a longer field make them make a mistake or make them punt to play field position. Gives your offensive coordinator and staff a little more time to try and come up with some plays that will get you down the field. the problem is you are acting like it's a guarantee that the Bills don't get the first. Grow some balls dude. You have better odds giving the ball to McCoy and telling him to make a play than having to go 65 yards relying on a 3rd string QB who just almost threw the game deciding INT in your own end.
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Like I said, I was blown away at the punt decision too. But I was wrong. As I thought about it after the game, I started to understand why the decision was made and it makes sense to me. But either way it didn’t seem like an obvious decision as many are making it out to be. It was a crap position either way. The idea was that there was a better chance pinning the Colts and trying to get a short field as the game was winding down. Other than the one drive, the Colts did pretty much nothing. On the the flip side, of the Bills don’t get the first and even if the Colts go 3 and out, the field would be too long for the offense there. Tough call, the decision made worked, so it was the correct one, IMO.
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