Shaw66 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 5:34 PM, dubs said: I am sorry to say, but you are missing the point. The premise of your point is that going for it is the equivalent of having pocket aces and punting is pocket 2s. I am saying that's unknowable. You can calculate the odds in poker, you cannot in a game with 6 inches of snow on the ground, a strong wind in one direction, a terrible offensive team on both sides of the ball, etc.... unless you can and then I am all ears because I would love to learn about it. Expand Dubs, I think you're wrong about this. The fact that the odds can't be calculated with precision, like a the odds of a poker hand can be, doesn't mean that the odds aren't an important part of the decision making. McDermott's job was to make a decision, and in making the decision he considered what he thought the odds of success and failure were, and then the odds of winning or losing the game with either outcome on the play. Neither McD nor you nor I can say with any certainty what the odds are, but he had to make his best guess nonetheless. Otherwise, he's just guessing, and guessing is never the right to go if there's any data that's worth evaluating. More importantly, you guys are talking about the odds of winning or losing, and as I've said, that analysis is incorrect. He had to consider the odds of winning, losing and TYING and then evaluate what the value of those various outcomes was. A tie is much closer to a win than a loss, and punting, although it decreased the likelihood of a win, also significantly decreased the likelihood of a loss. In this situation there was real value in not losing. 1
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 6:02 PM, Shaw66 said: Dubs, I think you're wrong about this. The fact that the odds can't be calculated with precision, like a the odds of a poker hand can be, doesn't mean that the odds aren't an important part of the decision making. McDermott's job was to make a decision, and in making the decision he considered what he thought the odds of success and failure were, and then the odds of winning or losing the game with either outcome on the play. Neither McD nor you nor I can say with any certainty what the odds are, but he had to make his best guess nonetheless. Otherwise, he's just guessing, and guessing is never the right to go if there's any data that's worth evaluating. More importantly, you guys are talking about the odds of winning or losing, and as I've said, that analysis is incorrect. He had to consider the odds of winning, losing and TYING and then evaluate what the value of those various outcomes was. A tie is much closer to a win than a loss, and punting, although it decreased the likelihood of a win, also significantly decreased the likelihood of a loss. In this situation there was real value in not losing. Expand And Shaw TYING ends your season so it is no different then a loss. Just like Rex in MIA
Shaw66 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 6:04 PM, MAJBobby said: And Shaw TYING ends your season so it is no different then a loss. Just like Rex in MIA Expand It DOESN'T end your season, and that's the whole point. LOSING ends your season; tying leaves you with possibilities.
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) On 12/11/2017 at 6:08 PM, Shaw66 said: It DOESN'T end your season, and that's the whole point. LOSING ends your season; tying leaves you with possibilities. Expand In all likelihood the big picture a TIE ends your season just like it did in MIA If you tied this game you are 6-6-1. say two wins against MIA 8-6-1 And yeah NE in NE So you played essentially into the stacked deck a loss and a tie ENDS your season. I want my coach to understand that big picture AND HE WOULD DO IT AGAIN he just said it. Edited December 11, 2017 by MAJBobby
Bob in STL Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 5:20 PM, billsfan11 said: So just because we aren't NFL coaches, we are not aloud to criticize a coach about a decision? Just supposed to kiss his arse no matter what decision he makes? Expand Sure, you can criticize the decision all you want. I am talking about the over the top comments calling for his firing and the nitpicking of every call and every use of a time out. As if there is only possible decision with nothing else to factor in but what we know by watching the TV and reading the newspaper. The guy ended up making he right call. He may be lucky and he may be stupid, I don't think he is either. I think he is a bright and prepared. He is a young coach, going through a learning process. I think he knows the mentality of the team and ability of the players better than any of the fans or writers do. This is not poker and the odds are not so easy as a game with a set number of cards. Your dealing with people, and fatigue, and injury, and severe weather, and real opponents ... not luck of the draw. I heard I guy on the post game show blame McDermott for losing the LB that New England picked up off of our practice squad. That is the extent of the craziness.
HumbleAndHungry Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 Despite the outcome , the decision to punt is indefensible. The "variables" as Sean mentioned should have , if anything, steered him more towards going for it (joe Webb at qb, 2 minutes left in OT, the elements, needing a win, Indy just had a long game tying drive) and if that pass isn't behind TY Hilton we get a different result
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 6:25 PM, Finkle Is Einhorn said: Despite the outcome , the decision to punt is indefensible. The "variables" as Sean mentioned should have , if anything, steered him more towards going for it (joe Webb at qb, 2 minutes left in OT, the elements, needing a win, Indy just had a long game tying drive) and if that pass isn't behind TY Hilton we get a different result Expand And if your aunt had balls, she'd be your uncle.
26CornerBlitz Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) You have to be totally aware of the situation as an NFL HC. Edited December 11, 2017 by 26CornerBlitz
Rochesterfan Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 5:39 PM, Kelly the Dog said: If gaining one yard on fourth and one is at least a 50% percentage, it's almost impossible to imagine a scenario that punting increasing your probability of winning. Expand That is the question though. What is the percentage chance that they get the 1st down in that situation? Using season averages on 4th down we were 2 for 10 on the season and then 0 for 2 in the game. That means at that point we had about a 16% chance based upon just our season average or about a 1 in 6 chance. Additionally - the Bills had 25 runs in the game of 2 yards or less - so nearly 50% of their runs in this game alone may not have gotten a first down just based upon the current conditions. So the Bills struggle on 4th down and had 50% of their runs stopped short throughout the game and in this 4th and 1 we are to assume that they have a suddenly higher percentage to get the first down because a study using all games and weather says it is 2% more likely they win before the punt. I want him to be aggressive and go, but based upon everything that had happened in the game to that point - I understand the decision.
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 6:21 PM, Bob in STL said: Sure, you can criticize the decision all you want. I am talking about the over the top comments calling for his firing and the nitpicking of every call and every use of a time out. As if there is only possible decision with nothing else to factor in but what we know by watching the TV and reading the newspaper. The guy ended up making he right call. He may be lucky and he may be stupid, I don't think he is either. I think he is a bright and prepared. He is a young coach, going through a learning process. I think he knows the mentality of the team and ability of the players better than any of the fans or writers do. This is not poker and the odds are not so easy as a game with a set number of cards. Your dealing with people, and fatigue, and injury, and severe weather, and real opponents ... not luck of the draw. I heard I guy on the post game show blame McDermott for losing the LB that New England picked up off of our practice squad. That is the extent of the craziness. Expand I'm not calling for his firing but I definitely don't think it was the correct call to punt On 12/11/2017 at 6:34 PM, 26CornerBlitz said: You have to be totally aware of the situation as an NFL HC. Expand Wow he actually said no to that? That right there tells me he thought a tie wouldn't have been bad, which is why he punted...
HappyDays Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 5:39 PM, Kelly the Dog said: If gaining one yard on fourth and one is at least a 50% percentage, it's almost impossible to imagine a scenario that punting increasing your probability of winning. Expand It isn't a 50% chance for the Bills. We were 2 for 10 on the year before yesterday, and 0 for 2 yesterday. I don't know what the percentage is for our 4th and shorts alone but from memory it isn't good.
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 6:44 PM, HappyDays said: It isn't a 50% chance for the Bills. We were 2 for 10 on the year before yesterday, and 0 for 2 yesterday. I don't know what the percentage is for our 4th and shorts alone but from memory it isn't good. Expand Against the Colts and the way shady was running that game, I would have put the odds at 75 percent to make it if they did a read option with Webb under the gun. Pretty much do the same play that got you the 3 yards on the 3rd and 4 before the punt
Spiderweb Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 9:22 PM, TheTruthHurts said: Gutless but right. It went exactly how he planned, that's not luck. Expand Yes that is luck. When you make a horribly wrong decision and you still end up with the desired result, that's luck. That is unless he really wanted to lose......
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 6:47 PM, billsfan11 said: Against the Colts and the way shady was running that game, I would have put the odds at 75 percent to make it if they did a read option with Webb under the gun. Pretty much do the same play that got you the 3 yards on the 3rd and 4 before the punt Expand What formula did you use to come up with that percentage? 75% of statistics are made up.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 6:25 PM, Finkle Is Einhorn said: Despite the outcome , the decision to punt is indefensible. The "variables" as Sean mentioned should have , if anything, steered him more towards going for it (joe Webb at qb, 2 minutes left in OT, the elements, needing a win, Indy just had a long game tying drive) and if that pass isn't behind TY Hilton we get a different result Expand There were 4 minutes left. We were 0/2 on 4th down in the game. Webb threw a pick on the last drive, probably changing what their playcalling mindset was at that point in the game. Those are the reasons i think they decided to punt. They felt their defense could stop them in 3 plays, force a punt, or get a turnover. They don't get the 2 yards, then we basically lose.
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 6:58 PM, joesixpack said: What formula did you use to come up with that percentage? 75% of statistics are made up. Expand None. Its my own opinion based on the game and how effectively shady was running. I personally think if the bills give the ball to shady on that 4th and 1, 3 out of 4 times he would make it
teef Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 6:57 PM, billsfan11 said: Yep. And read a few posts above. Apparently he didn't even know about the playoff scenarios. Which tells me he thinks a tie was not a bad thing. Which probably was a big factor in him punting. Just brutal if that's the case Expand when he made the comment, i just figured he was referring to him being more concerned about the bills winning their games and not worrying about what every other team has to do. you guys are trying far too hard with that one.
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 7:00 PM, teef said: when he made the comment, i just figured he was referring to him being more concerned about the bills winning their games and not worrying about what every other team has to do. you guys are trying far too hard with that one. Expand I know I mis understood it which Is why I deleted my post
26CornerBlitz Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 6:59 PM, dneveu said: There were 4 minutes left. We were 0/2 on 4th down in the game. Webb threw a pick on the last drive, probably changing what their playcalling mindset was at that point in the game. Those are the reasons i think they decided to punt. They felt their defense could stop them in 3 plays, force a punt, or get a turnover. They don't get the 2 yards, then we basically lose. Expand So get the ball back with Webb at the helm with even more yards to gain? It worked out this time, but it was a very poor decision.
Kelly the Dog Posted December 11, 2017 Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 6:31 PM, joesixpack said: And if your aunt had balls, she'd be your uncle. Expand No, she'd be a tranny. Are you ever right?
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