Top QBs in the NFL on 3rd down

[Teddy KGB]

12 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

See, statements like this really makes me think you don't actually watch the games.

 

I do.   I just weigh all the no shows much higher than you do.      It happens to frequently IMO to trust him or take him seriously.   

.   

[transplantbillsfan]

6 minutes ago, Air it out Fitzy said:

 

I do.   I just weigh all the no shows much higher than you do.      It happens to frequently IMO to trust him or take him seriously.   

.   

 

But it twists your perception of what happens elsewhere to the point where you just look like your Trolling or foolish.

 

Saying things like our offense was crap against San Francisco is almost too ridiculous to comprehend.  Our offense put up almost 500 yards in that game. 

[Teddy KGB]

Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

Saying things like our offense was crap against San Francisco is almost too ridiculous to comprehend.  Our offense put up almost 500 yards in that game. 

 

I didn’t say they weren’t.   You’re not good with the fire emojis.

 

They lit up the bums and threw up stinkers in big games too.  

 

Upgrading our passer is a need. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 hours ago, Air it out Fitzy said:

 

Setting up a tent on Mount Wrong ? 

 

Offense was ???? vs 49ers and Browns last year, we need to build the team Around Tyrod ???

 

Nevermind the other games where Tyrod Looked like Tyrod.

 

Youll be hearing from my copyright attorney 

[CDogg20]

On 12/7/2017 at 5:37 PM, keepthefaith said:

Show me the stats on converting a first down on 3rd down pass plays. 

Exactly. His % should be pretty high since he checks down constantly on 3rd down. 

[transplantbillsfan]

12 minutes ago, Air it out Fitzy said:

 

I didn’t say they weren’t.   You’re not good with the fire emojis.

 

They lit up the bums and threw up stinkers in big games too.  

 

Upgrading our passer is a need. 

 

 

Ahhh... my bad... those were fire emojis.  Couldn't tell.

 

Yes, a lot of your emojis look the same to me.  And I loathe emojis, anyway.  I can't read them 

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah, it's how bad the offense is on 1st and 2nd downs, obviously.

 

Just think of all those negative rushing plays by McCoy and Tolbert on 1st and 2nd down.

 

 

If you were even remotely objective you'd know that the Lion's share of blame for our constant 8+ yards to go on 3rd down goes to our inconsistent (at best) to woeful rushing attack.

Our rushing attack is top half of the league in terms of YPC though.

[Mat68]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Well, go here:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=2017

 

You'll see that by percentage Taylor has a higher percentage of 3rd and 8+ yards to go on 3rd down.  Rivers has more, but also has more 3rd down attempts so he has a lower %.  Stafford has the same number, but also has more 3rd downs.

 

I can't find an exact number anywhere for distance to go on 3rd down.  I'm pretty sure Happydays put something out a few weeks ago regarding Footballoutsiders metric ALEX that showed a stat that measured that and Taylor had the most or 2nd most in the league at that point in terms of distance to the sticks.

 

I can't say it definitively, but just watching how often our run game gets stuffed for negative yardage I'll just call it a gut feeling.  I'd put money on us being top 3 in most negative yard runs on 1st and 2nd down, though.

No converson % on 3rd and long.  8 and more he is currently 19th at 27%.  Completion% is not as important as converstion% for 3rd down.  If he is 100% completions on first downs and he doesnt pick up a forst down it is bad.

[transplantbillsfan]

35 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Our rushing attack is top half of the league in terms of YPC though.

 

-1 rush, -2 rush, 2 yard run, 3 yard run, 37 yard run, -1 yard run is going to look like an RB who's averaging 6+ YPC, but is that really very good for your offense?

5 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

No converson % on 3rd and long.  8 and more he is currently 19th at 27%.  Completion% is not as important as converstion% for 3rd down.  If he is 100% completions on first downs and he doesnt pick up a forst down it is bad.

 

Yes, he's 19th out of 36 upon facing a higher raw number of 3rd downs than any other QB save Phillip Rivers.

[Mat68]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

-1 rush, -2 rush, 2 yard run, 3 yard run, 37 yard run, -1 yard run is going to look like an RB who's averaging 6+ YPC, but is that really very good for your offense?

 

Yes, he's 19th out of 36 upon facing a higher raw number of 3rd downs than any other QB save Phillip Rivers.

Yes McCoy is actually making chunk plays.  Taylor needs to move the chains.  Its the opposite for most teams but that is this offense.  Mccoy makes the big plays the passing game needs todink and dunk and pick up first downs.

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

-1 rush, -2 rush, 2 yard run, 3 yard run, 37 yard run, -1 yard run is going to look like an RB who's averaging 6+ YPC, but is that really very good for your offense?

 

Just saying. I don't think our run game is any great shakes, especially compared to the last 2 years, but people act like it's bottom of the barrel and it really isn't.

 

Rather than isolating third down statistics, don't you think it would be instructive to look at total amount and percentage of first downs converted by QBs? I ask because I don't see how a first down gained on third down is any more valuable than one gained on first or second down...maybe there's an argument to be made but I don't see it.

[transplantbillsfan]

28 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Just saying. I don't think our run game is any great shakes, especially compared to the last 2 years, but people act like it's bottom of the barrel and it really isn't.

 

Rather than isolating third down statistics, don't you think it would be instructive to look at total amount and percentage of first downs converted by QBs? I ask because I don't see how a first down gained on third down is any more valuable than one gained on first or second down...maybe there's an argument to be made but I don't see it.

 

Well I think it has to do with how hypercritical people have been of Taylor on third down during his tenure in Buffalo, which I think branched off the whole idea that he's not "clutch enough."

 

Do you have those numbers you're alluding to?

Edited December 9, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

16 hours ago, Mat68 said:

No converson % on 3rd and long.  8 and more he is currently 19th at 27%.  Completion% is not as important as converstion% for 3rd down.  If he is 100% completions on first downs and he doesnt pick up a forst down it is bad.

 

And another reality check for these 3rd and long plays is that he also scrambled on 3rd and long 4 times and got a first down 3 times.

 

So his actual conversion % on 3rd and long is 30.2%, not 27.1%.

 

You'd have to look for 3rd and long scramble conversions for every other NFL QB to properly rank him, but % wise that boosts him from 19th to 13th; from below average to above average. My guess is other than Alex Smith and Russell Wilson there won't be too many 3rd and long scrambles. 

[Teddy KGB]

40 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And another reality check for these 3rd and long plays is that he also scrambled on 3rd and long 4 times and got a first down 3 times.

 

So his actual conversion % on 3rd and long is 30.2%, not 27.1%.

 

You'd have to look for 3rd and long scramble conversions for every other NFL QB to properly rank him, but % wise that boosts him from 19th to 13th; from below average to above average. My guess is other than Alex Smith and Russell Wilson there won't be too many 3rd and long scrambles. 

 

So where would rank him ?   24th ? 

[transplantbillsfan]

34 minutes ago, Air it out Fitzy said:

 

So where would rank him ?   24th ? 

 

As a QB?

 

Are you just trying to argue?

 

I think, and have thought, we will and should draft a QB in the first. I think, and have thought, that if 2017 isn't Taylor's last year in Buffalo, 2018 will be after the rookie gets a year on the bench to learn. And I think, and have thought, and have always thought that if we could clearly upgrade from Taylor, we should.

 

You want to argue that he's 28th rather than 24th or 30th rather than 22nd or 27th rather than 17th or... etc?

 

Why? And what exactly does it have to do with the subject of this thread?

 

Regardless of whatever I think about where Taylor ranks on a whole as a QB, he's actually pretty good on 3rd down having improved every year as a starter.

 

That much is fact, regardless of wherever he ranks on the spectrum of starting NFL QBs as a whole.

[Teddy KGB]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

wherever he ranks on the spectrum of starting NFL QBs as a whole.

 

Is really all that matters.   22-26ish is failure

[transplantbillsfan]

1 minute ago, Air it out Fitzy said:

 

Is really all that matters.   22-26ish is failure

 

What about 21?

[Teddy KGB]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

What about 21?

 

14 or die !! 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

19 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

-1 rush, -2 rush, 2 yard run, 3 yard run, 37 yard run, -1 yard run is going to look like an RB who's averaging 6+ YPC, but is that really very good for your offense?

BS

as in Barry Sanders 

 

did you you know he leads the NFL in negative runs?  

 

And then hen there was this.  

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/reggie-bush-sets-futility-record-finishes-with-negative-rushing-yards-for-season/amp/

[Teddy KGB]

http://www.cover1.net/taylor-held-onto-the-ball-too-long-but-the-offensive-line-held-their-own/

 

more content for 5 fans