2x1st Round Draft Picks

[The Crowing Rooster]

8 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

Hear Hear, well said BuffaloBill

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Jackington said:

 

I don't really disagree, but look at how often top QBs bust.  It's probably over 50%.  That's 3-5 years of a stinky team on a 50/50 bet.  Good scouting and systems can make a non top 10 QB into a quality starter.  Look at Cousins.  Wilson. 4 of the top 6 passers this year are not 1st rounders.  Stafford is in that and they don't win with him.  And the other 1st round QB, Rivers, when has he last been to the playoffs?  Oh yeah, when they had LT.

 

It's a tough bet to make...

Im trying to figure out "the next 5 years" thing

 

It sounds like you are mortaging 2 years at most in this scenario provided we gave up a 1st this year and a 1st next year and kept one of our 1st round picks in the upcoming draft

 

I think if we are going to go the draft the next guy route......its not really that much of a sacrifice

[Marty McFly]

now is the year for a trade up. Find em and Sign em.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Don't care which one it is - if there is a QB who OBD feels is a franchise guy, then you give up as much as needed to get him. 

That is all.  Like a specific QB most.  Go get him 

[Jackington]

18 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

Im trying to figure out "the next 5 years" thing

 

It sounds like you are mortaging 2 years at most in this scenario provided we gave up a 1st this year and a 1st next year and kept one of our 1st round picks in the upcoming draft

 

I think if we are going to go the draft the next guy route......its not really that much of a sacrifice

 

Well because you can't expect rookies to carry your team and two drafts will have been used on a failed plan.  And I think you are underestimating what it will take to move up.  It will probably take both 1st this year and a 1st next year if you want to move into the top 3.  So year 3 they will finally have a 1st round pick again and you can expect results 2 years down the road.  If the QB fails.  

 

I just wonder if a vet QB and a good team is the better option than putting all your eggs in a less than 50% chance to hit on a QB in the top of the 1st...

 

Look at the Vikings as an example.  

Edited December 4, 2017 by Jackington

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

I think your personal disappointment is clouding your judgment....in no way, will Rudolph be available beyond the 1st and I don't even think he makes it into the 20s...he's a superb arm talent with a terrific resume...Bills should be high on him, along with Rose and Darnold...Allen is good, but if any QB slides, I'll call Allen the one who drifts into late 1st and 2nd round...

Rudolph does not have superb arm talent.  It's okay.  He also has several future pros in his wr corps and plays in a conference that doesn't play a lot of defense.  I think he's very average.  I targeted Rudolph early in the year as someone to watch and he just doesn't impress me.  Fella that goes by Kirby Jackson posted an article outlining his strengths and weaknesses.  I tried to search for it, but I'm not clever about that sort of thing.  My order of preference is Rosen/Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson, Allen, Rudolph.  If we pick him, I will of course hope he is the next Jim Kelly and that I am wrong about him.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Dr. Who

[BuffaloHokie13]

56 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

However, in 2020 I don't want to be on this message board with basically the same conversation....well, Cousins crapped out, now we have a bunch of young players who are just about to hit their prime years and no QB to utilize them, we'll be back to where we started. 

 

Use the FA money to get the supporting cast, then take your QB of the future and see how well they fare, see Prescott, Dak for a Rookie's ability to do that when supported and coached properly....he's shown he's not at the point where he can carry the entire Offense, but with a good running game and Offensive line, he is definitely capable of being a good QB....as you mention Goff / Wentz, they were the franchise, and then their respective GMs got them the supporting cast. The Bills will have the FA money and yes Draft picks to do that this year. Even IF the Bills had to give up both their 1sts, and a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year, they're still left with a 2nd / 3rd / 4th / maybe 2 5ths plus FA money to get their guys....a young QB who will become the franchise and can coalesce the fan base is an important part of what the Bills are missing....

If Cousins craps out and you have a young supporting cast that you built through the draft then you have a great situation for a new QB to step into. Dallas built that OL through the draft, not FA. They also drafted Elliot, and Bryant, and Witten. Beasley was a UDFA.

[BigBuff423]

15 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Rudolph does not have superb arm talent.  It's okay.  He also has several future pros in his wr corps and plays in a conference that doesn't play a lot of defense.  I think he's very average.  I targeted Rudolph early in the year as someone to watch and he just doesn't impress me.  Fella that goes by Kirby Jackson posted an article outlining his strengths and weaknesses.  I tried to search for it, but I'm not clever about that sort of thing.  My order of preference is Rosen/Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson, Allen, Rudolph.  If we pick him, I will of course hope he is the next Jim Kelly and that I am wrong about him.

 

Totally my bad, sorry....in my head I was confusing Rudolph with Allen....so I would basically just switch out the names in my post, which would essentially put us in agreement. Monday yips....thanks.

15 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

If Cousins craps out and you have a young supporting cast that you built through the draft then you have a great situation for a new QB to step into. Dallas built that OL through the draft, not FA. They also drafted Elliot, and Bryant, and Witten. Beasley was a UDFA.

 

I'm certainly not saying to not Draft offensive line, but Dallas was bad for several years with a good, young, developing Offensive line, their Defense was just abysmal....then came Zeke and Dak and their Defense wasn't great, but it wasn't on the field a bunch either, which made it look better and the Offense was scoring points....as for the Bills, you can't get the whole Offensive line in FA, heck, given who will most likely be available, you'd probably be lucky to get one good to great starter unless you trade for one (which is a nice option, but teams don't trade great O-linemen)....so, you would want to get one good to great starter in FA, Draft one between 1st and 3rd round, and still have another 2 FAs signed as quality depth guys and again next year, make it a priority...

 

Point is, it won't be solved all at once, but if you put Cousins in with a line that he's constantly running from pressure and they can't get the ball moving in the run game, you've just spent a bunch of money on a guy who doesn't move the needle....because as good as an Offensive line CAN become, ala Cowboys, because they're weren't all Drafted in one year, there were various stages of growth and development, so when one Rookie came in, there was another guy who had 2 or 3 years of experience to help the learning curve....and, given the situation, I would rather not take 3-4 years before we see a good Offense....

[Tatonka68]

16 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Maybe you're missing the part where Cousins is carrying the Skins.  They'd be a 2 win team with Tyrod out there instead.

 

What weapons does he have?  The leading rusher on the team has a whopping 465yds on the year with a 3.7ypc. They're currently starting two 3rd string offensive lineman.

 

I wanted the Bills to trade for him 3 years ago. Kirk  is legit.  He just needs a team around him.

Great Quarterbacks carry the team and make players around him better. He is an average QB, I want a lot better.

Edited December 5, 2017 by Tatonka68
typo

[BuffaloHokie13]

6 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

I'm certainly not saying to not Draft offensive line, (1) but Dallas was bad for several years with a good, young, developing Offensive line, their Defense was just abysmal....then came Zeke and Dak and their Defense wasn't great, but it wasn't on the field a bunch either, which made it look better and the Offense was scoring points....as for the Bills, you can't get the whole Offensive line in FA, heck, given who will most likely be available, you'd probably be lucky to get one good to great starter unless you trade for one (which is a nice option, but teams don't trade great O-linemen)....(2) so, you would want to get one good to great starter in FA, Draft one between 1st and 3rd round, and still have another 2 FAs signed as quality depth guys and again next year, make it a priority...

 

(3) Point is, it won't be solved all at once, but if you put Cousins in with a line that he's constantly running from pressure and they can't get the ball moving in the run game, you've just spent a bunch of money on a guy who doesn't move the needle....because as good as an Offensive line CAN become, ala Cowboys, because they're weren't all Drafted in one year, there were various stages of growth and development, so when one Rookie came in, there was another guy who had 2 or 3 years of experience to help the learning curve....and, given the situation, I would rather not take 3-4 years before we see a good Offense....

(1) The Cowboys were 8-8 in 2011, 2012, and 2013. They were 12-4 the last year Romo was healthy (2014). They were bad in 2015 because Matt Cassel took over as their QB. Then in 2016 they got Zeke and Dak. They've had 1 sub-.500 season in the last 6 years and it was a year that they lost their starting QB.

 

(2) We have 33 players signed for 2018, 9 of them are OL. I'm not sure that creating more holes at this point is helpful. I believe the players we have can work, but we need to use a blocking scheme that suits them. RT is the only slot that I have no confidence in, but if Glenn can get healthy and either he or Dawkins can flip sides we may have a solution.

 

(3) That is exactly what he is dealing with now in Washington and they aren't in the position we are to remedy than in any way. The Bills can add a day 1 or day 2 OL, plus a weapon or 2 on O for him to throw to/hand off to.

[BigBuff423]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

(1) The Cowboys were 8-8 in 2011, 2012, and 2013. They were 12-4 the last year Romo was healthy (2014). They were bad in 2015 because Matt Cassel took over as their QB. Then in 2016 they got Zeke and Dak. They've had 1 sub-.500 season in the last 6 years and it was a year that they lost their starting QB.

 

(2) We have 33 players signed for 2018, 9 of them are OL. I'm not sure that creating more holes at this point is helpful. I believe the players we have can work, but we need to use a blocking scheme that suits them. RT is the only slot that I have no confidence in, but if Glenn can get healthy and either he or Dawkins can flip sides we may have a solution.

 

(3) That is exactly what he is dealing with now in Washington and they aren't in the position we are to remedy than in any way. The Bills can add a day 1 or day 2 OL, plus a weapon or 2 on O for him to throw to/hand off to.

If you'd like to consider 8-8 "good", fine....but to me that's the same mediocre hell the Bills have been in for most of the 17 years....and of course I said Dak and Zeke were made better by the Offensive line

 

33 players signed include Tyrod and Shady, and I am quite doubtful they return either by trade or being cut....also, RT and RG are both an issue and if it was just an easy flip to the right side for Glenn or Dawkins, I think they would have done that by now....I think it's at least "possible", the Bills let Incognito go due to contract and make one of them a LG, which is more plausible to me....so that means RG and RT need to be addressed in some measurable way, unless somehow Mills does another magic act convinces yet another GM to keep him, since Beane came in after FA and Draft, I won't count that one against him....yet.

 

Day 1 or Day 2 OL does not guarantee success and can be a real adjustment, especially if you stick a Rookie RT next to a Rookie RG...that could be bad. It makes more sense to Draft RG in Day 2, sign a good to great RT (if available, and there may not be) and Draft your QB in the 1st or 2nd and allow him to be your guy....Cousins is fine, I don't have an issue with him if we were a team like say the Cardinals or a couple years ago when they did that with Palmer or the Jags right now....but the Bills are not an "otherwise complete team absent the QB" type of situation....they have a bunch of pressing needs in various areas. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

If you'd like to consider 8-8 "good", fine....but to me that's the same mediocre hell the Bills have been in for most of the 17 years....and of course I said Dak and Zeke were made better by the Offensive line

 

33 players signed include Tyrod and Shady, and I am quite doubtful they return either by trade or being cut....also, RT and RG are both an issue and if it was just an easy flip to the right side for Glenn or Dawkins, I think they would have done that by now....I think it's at least "possible", the Bills let Incognito go due to contract and make one of them a LG, which is more plausible to me....so that means RG and RT need to be addressed in some measurable way, unless somehow Mills does another magic act convinces yet another GM to keep him, since Beane came in after FA and Draft, I won't count that one against him....yet.

 

Day 1 or Day 2 OL does not guarantee success and can be a real adjustment, especially if you stick a Rookie RT next to a Rookie RG...that could be bad. It makes more sense to Draft RG in Day 2, sign a good to great RT (if available, and there may not be) and Draft your QB in the 1st or 2nd and allow him to be your guy....Cousins is fine, I don't have an issue with him if we were a team like say the Cardinals or a couple years ago when they did that with Palmer or the Jags right now....but the Bills are not an "otherwise complete team absent the QB" type of situation....they have a bunch of pressing needs in various areas. 

I never said 8-8 was good. You said they were bad. 8-8 isn't bad. 4-12 or 0-16 or 1-15 is bad.

 

They can't flip Dawkins right now because Glenn is hurt. I still have faith in Miller at RG.

 

And my point was never that the Bills are a QB away. My point was that the fastest route to success would be to keep all of our draft picks (use them on DL, LB, WR, OL, QB/CB) and bring in Cousins. That is still the case. I never even claimed it was the best route. It's just the fastest one to start winning more football games.

[BigBuff423]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I never said 8-8 was good. You said they were bad. 8-8 isn't bad. 4-12 or 0-16 or 1-15 is bad.

 

They can't flip Dawkins right now because Glenn is hurt. I still have faith in Miller at RG.

 

And my point was never that the Bills are a QB away. My point was that the fastest route to success would be to keep all of our draft picks (use them on DL, LB, WR, OL, QB/CB) and bring in Cousins. That is still the case. I never even claimed it was the best route. It's just the fastest one to start winning more football games.

 

To me 8-8 is bad...so we differ on that point, but I can understand why it's not seen as "bad", it's just to me in the era of unprecedented parity in the NFL, 8-8 is the equivalent to being "bad"....not awful to watch, but awful in terms of moving the team closer to the intended goal: Championship. 

 

And Dawkins wasn't flipped when Glenn was healthy, and to my knowledge (and I certainly could be wrong), what I remember was McD and co. never indicating even considering moving Dawkins to RT or the right side despite, most of us thinking that was the intent when he was Drafted due to Glenn and Richie on the left side...but, maybe the goal was always to have Dawkins or Glenn switch to Guard but on the left side after this year, we shall find out in 2018....also, from what I remember PFF had Miller ranked fairly in his second year and then had ups and downs last year, but to me still better than Ducasse, maybe there's something we don't know? Because I too have been baffled by why Ducasse is starting all these games....

 

And I apologize that I missed the intricacy of your point regarding "fastest" vs "best".....I'm not sure I agree still, because I think you forfeit that experience and capability on the line leading to more pressure on the QB, which is what is happening to Cousins now, but it does change my understanding about what you said. Thanks.

Edited December 5, 2017 by BigBuff423
incorrectly stated Richie and Glenn on right side, obviously I meant left

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

To me 8-8 is bad...so we differ on that point, but I can understand why it's not seen as "bad", it's just to me in the era of unprecedented parity in the NFL, 8-8 is the equivalent to being "bad"....not awful to watch, but awful in terms of moving the team closer to the intended goal: Championship. 

 

And Dawkins wasn't flipped when Glenn was healthy, and to my knowledge (and I certainly could be wrong), what I remember was McD and co. never indicating even considering moving Dawkins to RT or the right side despite, most of us thinking that was the intent when he was Drafted due to Glenn and Richie on the right side...but, maybe the goal was always to have Dawkins or Glenn switch to Guard but on the left side after this year, we shall find out in 2018....also, from what I remember PFF had Miller ranked fairly in his second year and then had ups and downs last year, but to me still better than Ducasse, maybe there's something we don't know? Because I too have been baffled by why Ducasse is starting all these games....

 

And I apologize that I missed the intricacy of your point regarding "fastest" vs "best".....I'm not sure I agree still, because I think you forfeit that experience and capability on the line leading to more pressure on the QB, which is what is happening to Cousins now, but it does change my understanding about what you said. Thanks.

I think they mentioned at one point that they didn't want to reset Dawkins' progress mid season by flipping him. They knew they needed him on the left this year and that's where he practiced. Perhaps there's a switch to the right with another full offseason of working on that side, or perhaps he takes over for Glenn or Richie and whoever he replaces is jettisoned. We'll see!

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

20 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

As many as it takes.

If Cousins was that good, why will he be available? Teams do not let good QB's get away, money or not.

The Redskins might not have a choice, that 3rd franchise tag is a cap killer. Cousin's holds all the cards right now. He will probably want the Andrew Luck deal which I really don't have a problem giving him. If we can keep our draft picks and sign a QB like Cousins we should break the playoff curse in 2018.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

17 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

The Redskins might not have a choice, that 3rd franchise tag is a cap killer. Cousin's holds all the cards right now. He will probably want the Andrew Luck deal which I really don't have a problem giving him. If we can keep our draft picks and sign a QB like Cousins we should break the playoff curse in 2018.

We have soooo many holes.  It becomes a problem filling them when your QBs cap hit is absurd

[The Now Moment]

Surely there will be a lot of trade buzz of teams trying to move up in the draft as teams like Indy and San Fran seem to have their QBs for the future.  Buffalo seems to have dipped their hand into that category.  With all the picks we have it should be easier for us to move up than a lot of the other teams.  My question is: What realistically would we have to give up to get up into the top 5?  As much as I'd like it to only be two picks, I have a feeling it will be more than that.

Edited December 5, 2017 by Buffalo30

[BuffaloBill]

There is a welll used and understood draft value point system used by the NFL.  It would be between the parties involved in a trade to decide if they use it or not.  Usually it does serve as the understood starting point. 

 

http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

 

 

[MAJBobby]

Eagles gave up to get to 2nd overall

2016 1st (8th), 3rd and 4th

2017 1st and 2nd

 

Rams to go from 15 to 1 gave up

2016 1st, two 2nds, 3rd

2017 1st and 3rd.

 

Got back 1st overall, a 4th and 6th

 

So for the Bills moving to say 1st overall from around 17 and want to keep the second 1st round pick.

 

2018 1st, two 2nds, 3rd

2019 1st and 2nd

 

to get one overall and some late round picks

 

 

 

Those are the packages you would start with because it includes already the "QB Premium"

Edited December 5, 2017 by MAJBobby

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Eagles gave up to get to 2nd overall

2016 1st (8th), 3rd and 4th

2017 1st and 2nd

 

Rams to go from 15 to 1 gave up

2016 1st, two 2nds, 3rd

2017 1st and 3rd.

 

Got back 1st overall, a 4th and 6th

 

So for the Bills moving to say 1st overall from around 17 and want to keep the second 1st round pick.

 

2018 1st, two 2nds, 3rd

2019 1st and 2nd

 

to get one overall and some late round picks

They aren't moving up that high and retaining either of those 1sts that's a pipe dream. Current picks always have more value than next years.