Again the need for 300 yards Passing/game

[oldmanfan]

Just now, xRUSHx said:

I would love to have balanced attack as well but first you need a QB that can throw, let's say maybe one that can get more then 54 yards in 4 quarters

 

Just now, xRUSHx said:

I would love to have balanced attack as well but first you need a QB that can throw, let's say maybe one that can get more then 54 yards in 4 quarters

That was a very bad TT performance.  Led to giving Peterman a shot.

[xRUSHx]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

 

That was a very bad TT performance.  Led to giving Peterman a shot.

Right on man. HS stat of our starting QB in the big league, he deserved to be sat after that stinker

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So the 19th ranked DVOA defense is the reason? Got it 

I know the D is not good enough either, we all know this but some still are holding out hope on Tyrod as a starter. Sadly NE game is next up sure hope he can get over that 50 yard mark.

Edited November 29, 2017 by xRUSHx

[BringBackOrton]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Is there a reason that Tyrod’s winning percentage is higher this year than 300 yard passers? Asking for a friend

300 yard passers usually are trying to carry their team in a deficit.

 

Easy peasy.

 

We all know the 300 yard barometer is an imperfect measure of a QB's ability to "beat you with his arm."  There are QB's in the NFL who can beat you with his arm in some or most of their games, and there are QB's in the NFL who you take your chances that they won't beat you with their arm.  

 

And we know what group our QB resides comfortably in.  The quibbling over the stat is silly.

[dulles]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Actually, the Bills pretty consistently do establish the pass early in games, it's just they don't stick with it once they get a lead because they want to run out the clock.

 

This is why I want to bang my head against a wall with some people who adamantly argue that Taylor isn't a serious contributor to these wins.

 

It's like people don't bother watching games and just look at the box score in the end.

 

1st half

15/24 for 121 yards and 1 TD

 

We went into the half up by 10 points: 13-3

 

2nd half

4/5 for 62 yards

 

 

There's an ebb and flow to the conservative way McDermott and Dennison call their plays.  In a 1 score game, Taylor passes more.  In a 2 score game, we pass a lot less.

 

The Bills went up by 2 scores (10 points) just under 3 minutes into the 2nd quarter.  Up to that point, Taylor threw 16 passes in 27 plays.

 

Then the Bills went up by 2 scores and on their next drive and he only threw 3 passes on 12 plays.

 

Then the Chiefs kicked a FG and came within 1 score and the Bills got the ball back with less than 2 minutes and Taylor threw 6 passes in 7 plays to lead the team to a FG to go up by 10 points.

 

 

Then 5 passes in the 2nd half.

 

Only 71 of Taylor's 308 passes this year have come when the Bills have been leading, but only 12 of those passes have come when this team has been up by 2 or more scores (9 points or more). 

 

We've run 76 offensive plays up by 9 points or more. He's thrown the ball just 15.8% of the plays we've been up by that much.
 

We've run 688 total offensive plays... 612 have been with us trailing or tied or up by only one score. 296 of those plays have been passes.

 

When "it's a game," there's clearly a plan to throw the ball as Taylor throws the ball 48.4% of the time.

 

When the Bills have a solid lead, he only throws it 15.8% of the time.

 

 

 

 

 

This is good statistical analysis.  Very interesting trends from McD and Rico. 

I think this shows that they are too predictable with the lead, especially considering how careful TT is with the ball when he does throw.  I would want the 15.8% to be up at least 10%.  You have to keep the defense honest.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, dulles said:

This is good statistical analysis.  Very interesting trends from McD and Rico. 

I think this shows that they are too predictable with the lead, especially considering how careful TT is with the ball when he does throw.  I would want the 15.8% to be up at least 10%.  You have to keep the defense honest.  

They did similar last year too. Pass early run later.  

A bit later you get behind and ....

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

Right on man. HS stat of our starting QB in the big league, he deserved to be sat after that stinker

I know the D is not good enough either, we all know this but some still are holding out hope on Tyrod as a starter. Sadly NE game is next up sure hope he can get over that 50 yard mark.

No one is holding out hope of anything. No one has showed a correlation between 300 yard passing games and winning. Tyrod Taylor has a higher winning percentage this year than 300 yard passers. Arguing otherwise is like arguing that the sun isn’t hot. You can’t debate it. Why are we talking about 300 yard passing games when it is totally irrelevant? We should be talking about holding teams under 24 points. That clearly correlates with wins and losses.

11 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

300 yard passers usually are trying to carry their team in a deficit.

 

Easy peasy.

 

We all know the 300 yard barometer is an imperfect measure of a QB's ability to "beat you with his arm."  There are QB's in the NFL who can beat you with his arm in some or most of their games, and there are QB's in the NFL who you take your chances that they won't beat you with their arm.  

 

And we know what group our QB resides comfortably in.  The quibbling over the stat is silly.

Our QB is 21-18. He must be beating some people.

[BringBackOrton]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

No one is holding out hope of anything. No one has showed a correlation between 300 yard passing games and winning. Tyrod Taylor has a higher winning percentage this year than 300 yard passers. Arguing otherwise is like arguing that the sun isn’t hot. You can’t debate it. Why are we talking about 300 yard passing games when it is totally irrelevant? We should be talking about holding teams under 24 points. That clearly correlates with wins and losses.

Our QB is 21-18. He must be beating some people.

You keep asking why we talk about 300 yard passing games and I'm telling you why.  

 

Do you think opposing NFL GM's are worried about TT's arm as much as, let's say, the top 2/3rds of the NFL QB's?

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Actually, the Bills pretty consistently do establish the pass early in games, it's just they don't stick with it once they get a lead because they want to run out the clock.

 

This is why I want to bang my head against a wall with some people who adamantly argue that Taylor isn't a serious contributor to these wins.

 

It's like people don't bother watching games and just look at the box score in the end.

 

1st half

15/24 for 121 yards and 1 TD

 

We went into the half up by 10 points: 13-3

 

2nd half

4/5 for 62 yards

 

 

There's an ebb and flow to the conservative way McDermott and Dennison call their plays.  In a 1 score game, Taylor passes more.  In a 2 score game, we pass a lot less.

 

The Bills went up by 2 scores (10 points) just under 3 minutes into the 2nd quarter.  Up to that point, Taylor threw 16 passes in 27 plays.

 

Then the Bills went up by 2 scores and on their next drive and he only threw 3 passes on 12 plays.

 

Then the Chiefs kicked a FG and came within 1 score and the Bills got the ball back with less than 2 minutes and Taylor threw 6 passes in 7 plays to lead the team to a FG to go up by 10 points.

 

 

Then 5 passes in the 2nd half.

 

Only 71 of Taylor's 308 passes this year have come when the Bills have been leading, but only 12 of those passes have come when this team has been up by 2 or more scores (9 points or more). 

 

We've run 76 offensive plays up by 9 points or more. He's thrown the ball just 15.8% of the plays we've been up by that much.
 

We've run 688 total offensive plays... 612 have been with us trailing or tied or up by only one score. 296 of those plays have been passes.

 

When "it's a game," there's clearly a plan to throw the ball as Taylor throws the ball 48.4% of the time.

 

When the Bills have a solid lead, he only throws it 15.8% of the time.

 

 

 

 

 

Great analysis.  Sad that the Bills are so sure of themselves when up a paltry 9 points.  

 

The thread was pointing out that opposing coaches do not prepare for the Bills to throw the ball, the line is stacked and McCoy and the running game suffers, the Bills have too many difficult downs.  Then when we do have a 7-9 first down play, it is a run on second and often for no gain or a loss.

 

 Finally once inside the opponents 35 it's about running down the clock and the Bills setting up for a fg.

 

So hard to watch this offense.

[GoBills808]

14 minutes ago, dulles said:

This is good statistical analysis.  Very interesting trends from McD and Rico. 

I think this shows that they are too predictable with the lead, especially considering how careful TT is with the ball when he does throw.  I would want the 15.8% to be up at least 10%.  You have to keep the defense honest.  

So around 17.38%?

[dulles]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

So around 17.38%?

Yep, that'd be a conservative estimate. 

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

You keep asking why we talk about 300 yard passing games and I'm telling you why.  

 

Do you think opposing NFL GM's are worried about TT's arm as much as, let's say, the top 2/3rds of the NFL QB's?

He's got a good arm when asked to use it.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

You keep asking why we talk about 300 yard passing games and I'm telling you why.  

 

Do you think opposing NFL GM's are worried about TT's arm as much as, let's say, the top 2/3rds of the NFL QB's?

Nope, but it doesn’t matter. That’s the point. The goal is to win games and that’s what they worry about. KC was using 2 spies on Tyrod last week on certain plays. Phil Rivers throws for 300 yards a lot but they defend him differently. Both ways work and that’s why Tyrod is 21-18 despite rarely throwing for 300 yards.

[BringBackOrton]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Nope, but it doesn’t matter. That’s the point. The goal is to win games and that’s what they worry about. KC was using 2 spies on Tyrod last week on certain plays. Phil Rivers throws for 300 yards a lot but they defend him differently. Both ways work and that’s why Tyrod is 21-18 despite rarely throwing for 300 yards.

That's just not true.  At all. And you know that.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, jmc12290 said:

That's just not true.  At all. And you know that.

It doesn’t!! For one he has a higher winning percentage than 300 yard passers this year. It’s factually false. Additionally, I just laid it out more strategically.  Go back and debate my last point. Instead of saying “it’s not true, and you know that,” prove it. 

[BringBackOrton]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It doesn’t!! For one he has a higher winning percentage than 300 yard passers this year. It’s factually false. Additionally, I just laid it out more strategically.  Go back and debate my last point. Instead of saying “it’s not true, and you know that,” prove it. 

Holy !@#$ dude.

 

36 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

300 yard passers usually are trying to carry their team in a deficit.

 

Easy peasy.

 

We all know the 300 yard barometer is an imperfect measure of a QB's ability to "beat you with his arm."  There are QB's in the NFL who can beat you with his arm in some or most of their games, and there are QB's in the NFL who you take your chances that they won't beat you with their arm.  

 

And we know what group our QB resides comfortably in.  The quibbling over the stat is silly.

It's like being trapped on a carousel.

Edited November 29, 2017 by jmc12290

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Holy !@#$ dude.

 

It's like being trapped on a carousel.

So it matters because you say it does? This is a carousel of stupidity. You are using opinions to argue facts. “300 yard passers are usually trying to carry their teams in a deficit.” What percentage of 300 yard passers is that true for? 

[BringBackOrton]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So it matters because you say it does? This is a carousel of stupidity. You are using opinions to argue facts. “300 yard passers are usually trying to carry their teams in a deficit.” What percentage of 300 yard passers is that true for? 

I called the stat imperfect.  I said

 

46 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

300 yard passers usually are trying to carry their team in a deficit.

 

Easy peasy.

 

We all know the 300 yard barometer is an imperfect measure of a QB's ability to "beat you with his arm."  There are QB's in the NFL who can beat you with his arm in some or most of their games, and there are QB's in the NFL who you take your chances that they won't beat you with their arm.  

 

And we know what group our QB resides comfortably in.  The quibbling over the stat is silly.

 And yet I got:

 

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It doesn’t!! For one he has a higher winning percentage than 300 yard passers this year. It’s factually false. Additionally, I just laid it out more strategically.  Go back and debate my last point. Instead of saying “it’s not true, and you know that,” prove it. 

I could not care less that he has a higher winning percentage than 300 yard passers this year. Not a single drop.  We know Taylor's quality of a passer, the 300 yard stat's imperfections notwithstanding.  Propping it up as a sad strawman to beat down is futile.  

 

28 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

You keep asking why we talk about 300 yard passing games and I'm telling you why.  

 

Do you think opposing NFL GM's are worried about TT's arm as much as, let's say, the top 2/3rds of the NFL QB's?

20 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Nope, but it doesn’t matter. That’s the point. The goal is to win games and that’s what they worry about. KC was using 2 spies on Tyrod last week on certain plays. Phil Rivers throws for 300 yards a lot but they defend him differently. Both ways work and that’s why Tyrod is 21-18 despite rarely throwing for 300 yards.

 

You told me it doesn't matter that our QB isn't as big of a threat to pass as two-thirds of the league's QB's. That's wrong.  QB is the most important position in the NFL and passing is kinda important to QB play.  

 

Now respond to this with a 300 yard stat so I can get off this crazy ride.

Edited November 29, 2017 by jmc12290

[Kirby Jackson]

9 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

I called the stat imperfect.  I said

 

 And yet I got:

 

I could not care less that he has a higher winning percentage than 300 yard passers this year. Not a single drop.  We know Taylor's quality of a passer, the 300 yard stat's imperfections notwithstanding.  Propping it up as a sad strawman to beat down is futile.  

 

 

You told me it doesn't matter that our QB isn't as big of a threat to pass as two-thirds of the league's QB's. That's wrong.  QB is the most important position in the NFL and passing is kinda important to QB play.  

 

Now respond to this with a 300 yard stat so I can get off this crazy ride.

You are still missing the point. Passing yards are totally irrelevant and it hasn’t been proven otherwise. It’s a weak argument used around here to discredit Taylor. He’s an average QB. He’s a below average passer. His mobility is elite and offsets his shortcomings. A QB isn’t about passing yards. It’s about decision making, playmaking, throwing, running, hanging onto the football, managing the clock, etc... It is the total package.

 

Points are what matters. When a team uses 2 guys to spy the QB it opens up the field for others. Dennison hasn’t been able to take advantage of it but they were top 10 scoring and DVOA over the last 2 years. It isn’t because of passing yards. It’s because of mismatches. You have to defend Steph Curry differently than Shaq in his prime. Both are effective. 

 

If if we are talking about things that matter, this is way more important: 

 

Edited November 29, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[LarryMadman]

8 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Need to be able to Pass and Run with some degree of success, and we've struggled with each this year.

Here's a list of QBs averaging less than 220 passing yards per game this year:
Eli Manning

Cam Newton

Andy Dalton

Dak Prescott

Blake Bortles

Tyrod Taylor

Brett Hundley

Tom Savage

Ryan Fitzpatrick

DeShone Kizer

Jay Cutler

Joe Flacco

Mitch Trubisky

----

Matt Moore

Mike Glennon

Brian Hoyer

Drew Stanton

Why did you arbitrarily pick 220 yards? Bigger named QBs to fit your agenda, to paint your boy Tyrod in a better light? If you picked under 200 yards( which everyone would do and  makes way more sense), Tyrod sits at 184, the big names go away and doesn't fit your agenda as nicely. The under 200 yards list is Kizer, Cutler, Flacco, Hoyer, Hundley, Trubisky, Savage and even Aaron Rodgers (though he only started 6 games). 

You just can't handle that Tyrod stinks and is in the bottom with the also rans and rookies, save Rodgers. The first stage is acceptance, let it happen. 

 

The love affair with this guy is unprecedented and down right creepy. I've never seen the excuses and fabrications made to make this guy look better than he is, it's bizarre. 

Edited November 29, 2017 by LarryMadman

[BringBackOrton]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You are still missing the point. Passing yards are totally irrelevant and it hasn’t been proven otherwise. It’s a weak argument used around here to discredit Taylor. He’s an average QB. He’s a below average passer. His mobility is elite and offsets his shortcomings. A QB isn’t about passing yards. It’s about decision making, playmaking, throwing, running, hanging onto the football, managing the clock, etc... It is the total package.

 

Points are what matters. When a team uses 2 guys to spy the QB it opens up the field for others. Dennison hasn’t been able to take advantage of it but they were top 10 scoring and DVOA over the last 2 years. It isn’t because of passing yards. It’s because of mismatches. You have to defend Steph Curry differently than Shaq in his prime. Both are effective. 

I can assure you, I'm not missing the point.

 

I don't know if you noticed, but we're 30th in passing TD's.  Does that affect points?

 

We're 30th in passing yards.  Does that affect our ability to get down field and score TD's and FG's?

 

Passing yards are irrelevant to 9th grade statisticians.  Nobody else.

 

Side note: "A QB isn't about passing yards... it's about throwing..."  LOL.

Edited November 29, 2017 by jmc12290