dave mcbride Posted November 28, 2017 Posted November 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, Luka said: I always look at teams like the Packers or the old Colts with Peyton (or hell, even the new ones with Luck). You could even go back to Marino. Teams that would've benefited GREATLY from having a real run game. You can say it's a passing league all you want, but having a well rounded team is still the only way to win consistently. Indy had a great running game - Edgerron James (hof-level production) and for a short period Addai. And marshall faulk for a year too. Polian always valued bell cow backs.
MAJBobby Posted November 28, 2017 Posted November 28, 2017 1 hour ago, NewDayBills said: Dude, I listed HOF caliber players, not scrubs off the street. I asked you if you would take Adrian Peterson in the 1st, you said no! No i wouldnt not when i can get Le’Veon Bell in the 3rd. Is it really that hard to understand 1 hour ago, dave mcbride said: Interestingly, of the 29 rushers with 10K career yards, 23 were first rounders, 4 were second rounders, and 2 were third rounders. Shady (9712) will be #30 soon, and he was a second rounder. Matt Forte (9682) is very close too and was a second rounder. Anyway, just about all of the bell cow backs were first rounders, and the ones who weren't first rounders were pretty high picks too. Looks like that's one position where evaluators have gotten it right, historically. I understand that but hard to really use that stat when the league really didnt start looking at this position differently. However i also would never give a RB a huge contract either
Mr. WEO Posted November 29, 2017 Posted November 29, 2017 15 hours ago, dave mcbride said: If no late round picks are in the top three dozen, and 75 percent are first rounders, then you have to deduce that they do get that position right. The wild card with the RB position is injury; talent isn't that hard to assess at that position. I maintain to this day that Kijana Carter, who had a brutal injury, would have been a great, but injury derailed it. There are a few first rounders that underperformed (Trent Richardson being the most obvious recent example), but I think that the high picks have a pretty high hit rate. Marshawn has 431 yards to go until 10K too. The Raiders are right back in it, so who knows? Maybe he'll do it this season. He's another high first round pick. Well, the majority of the top 30 passers all time are first round picks. 2/3 are 1st or 2nd round. What your conclusion (NFL teams must be good at evaluating potential 1st round RBs) doesn't factor in is that, in the years of the draft encompassing the top 30 RB's all time, while 75% may have been first round picks, there were 201 1st round RB picks selected over that time period. 11% ended up on the all time top 30 (to this point). 89% are the rest. Some were close, but the vast majority amounted to not much. You are saying that most of the all time greats were drafted in the first round. Same could be said for QBs, but that doesn't mean that teams were any good at evaluating QBs. In fact we know the opposite is true.
SoTier Posted November 29, 2017 Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 5:07 PM, ndirish1978 said: We don't even have a garage to put the car in, selling the one you have is asinine with so many glaring holes. Yeah, but the Bills love doing it because ... well, it's just worked so well in their strategy to avoid the post-season. On 11/27/2017 at 6:21 PM, Binghamton Beast said: Shady is definitely good enough to be on this roster next year but I see the Bills being smart (cap wise and where they are building the team) and moving on from him and the likes of Cordy Glenn, Kyle Williams, Charles Clay, Incognito and other big money guys. Call me crazy but I get the feeling the Bills are loading for bear and going to go full bore in an attempt to sign Cousins. Right-o. It's so smart because it's worked so well all over the league: replace all your talent with scrubs and rookies. The only bear the Bills are loading up for is losing for the foreseeable future. Cousins isn't going to sign with a team with no OL and 1NFL caliber starting WR with a bad knee. On 11/28/2017 at 2:29 AM, HuSeYiN_NYC said: I was going to start a thread on how McCoy seems very displeased but might as well add my thoughts and questions on this thread. During the game, early in the 4th quarter (i believe), McCoy got stuffed by the Dline yet again and got very upset. To me it seemed like he was upset at our Oline (watching from my couch). Then in his post game interview from the locker room, you would think we lost the game if you were to judge the interview by how Shady was responding and answering questions. He sounded depressed and beat. Idk if I'm the only one who noticed that but Shady is still Shady. Anyone who thinks he should be traded is not really a Bills fan and doesn't care if the Bills succed or not. If Shady goes, the little bit of offense we DO have will go right with him. Stop the nonsense please. Watkins, Dareus, Darby, Gilmore and others (besides Woods and Gillislee) were let go for cap situations/underperforming. Shady IS the offense. Plain and simple. All those players you mentioned were disposed of by the Bills because they were expensive. So is Shady. Like Glenn, Clay, Incognito, and anybody else on the team making above league minimum, he's likely to get the axe as the Bills continue their quest to out-Cleveland the Browns. 19 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: Those 29 are dwarfed by the sheer number of 1st round RBs who were mediocre or frank busts though. I think it's a tough position, historically, to evaluate. Since only about 50% of QBs drafted in the top half of the first round since 2000 turn out to be decent starters at best (Jay Cutler level or better), and even fewer turn out to be "franchise QBs", I guess the Bills' penchant for drafting DBs in the first round is really, really smart, huh?
dave mcbride Posted November 29, 2017 Posted November 29, 2017 3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: Well, the majority of the top 30 passers all time are first round picks. 2/3 are 1st or 2nd round. What your conclusion (NFL teams must be good at evaluating potential 1st round RBs) doesn't factor in is that, in the years of the draft encompassing the top 30 RB's all time, while 75% may have been first round picks, there were 201 1st round RB picks selected over that time period. 11% ended up on the all time top 30 (to this point). 89% are the rest. Some were close, but the vast majority amounted to not much. You are saying that most of the all time greats were drafted in the first round. Same could be said for QBs, but that doesn't mean that teams were any good at evaluating QBs. In fact we know the opposite is true. Once you start looking at top producers at other positions, RBs do stand out for their high-pick ratio. Of course there are RB busts, just like there are busts at every position. I do think, however, that barring injury (a key caveat), there is no easier position to project than RB. Does the player have speed/power/cut ability/vision? Beyond that, they're not looking for much. Rocket surgery skills aren't a requirement.
Mr. WEO Posted November 29, 2017 Posted November 29, 2017 32 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: Once you start looking at top producers at other positions, RBs do stand out for their high-pick ratio. Of course there are RB busts, just like there are busts at every position. I do think, however, that barring injury (a key caveat), there is no easier position to project than RB. Does the player have speed/power/cut ability/vision? Beyond that, they're not looking for much. Rocket surgery skills aren't a requirement. I was arguing the opposite--the evidence is that the top producers may have been high picks, the overwhelming majority of high picks have not been high producers. In the last 50+ years of first round RB picks (over 200 of them), 23 turned out to be among the best. The rest were the rest. This proves that most first round RBs while not mostly busts, won't amount to much--hence they aren't as easy to pick as future greats as you say.
dave mcbride Posted November 29, 2017 Posted November 29, 2017 17 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: I was arguing the opposite--the evidence is that the top producers may have been high picks, the overwhelming majority of high picks have not been high producers. In the last 50+ years of first round RB picks (over 200 of them), 23 turned out to be among the best. The rest were the rest. This proves that most first round RBs while not mostly busts, won't amount to much--hence they aren't as easy to pick as future greats as you say. Depends. Reggie Bush was a first rounder with only 5490 rushing yards, but he had nearly 500 receptions and a lot of TDs. McGahee ran for 8500 yards; Curt Warner had a few truly dominating seasons before his career was cut short by injury. Just because they're not in the top 30, doesn't mean they're in "the rest," metaphorically speaking. My point is that the RB guys who really look like first round picks coming out of college tend to play more like first round picks in the NFL than players at other positions - that's because it's a relatively easy position to project given the desired skills.
Mr. WEO Posted November 29, 2017 Posted November 29, 2017 1 hour ago, dave mcbride said: Depends. Reggie Bush was a first rounder with only 5490 rushing yards, but he had nearly 500 receptions and a lot of TDs. McGahee ran for 8500 yards; Curt Warner had a few truly dominating seasons before his career was cut short by injury. Just because they're not in the top 30, doesn't mean they're in "the rest," metaphorically speaking. My point is that the RB guys who really look like first round picks coming out of college tend to play more like first round picks in the NFL than players at other positions - that's because it's a relatively easy position to project given the desired skills. OK, push it up to 20% as "top RBs". Heck, make it 30% of the 1st rounders end up as top RBs--three times the number you originally included. All 1st round RB picks "really look like first round picks coming out of college", to at least one team---and yet, even being very generous with who is included as a top RB, the miss rate is an overwhelmingly high 70% or more. I just can't label that as "easy to project".
dave mcbride Posted November 29, 2017 Posted November 29, 2017 (edited) 56 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: OK, push it up to 20% as "top RBs". Heck, make it 30% of the 1st rounders end up as top RBs--three times the number you originally included. All 1st round RB picks "really look like first round picks coming out of college", to at least one team---and yet, even being very generous with who is included as a top RB, the miss rate is an overwhelmingly high 70% or more. I just can't label that as "easy to project". Alright, let's look at a specific team -- our very own Buffalo Bills. Here are the Bills RB draft picks in the first two rounds going back to OJ: 1969: OJ #1; Bill Enyart #2 - OJ is an all time great; never heard of Enyart 1978: Terry Miller #1 - great, great rookie season; not sure why he cratered (I think injuries) 1980: Joe Cribbs #2 - great player 1981: Booker Moore #1 - bust, but IIRC he was diagnosed with Guillain-Barre syndrome shortly after being drafted. Bad luck. 1984: Greg Bell #1 - jerk but a very good player; had 18 TDs (!) in 1988 for the Rams 1986: Ronnie Harmon #1 - another jerk but a slightly-south-of-HOF caliber player (one of the better receiving backs in league history with 582 catches). 1988: Thurman Thomas #2 - HOF 1990: Carwell Gardner #2 - he doesn't really count because he was a FB and was drafted as such; it's the only position he played too. I'm not counting him. 1997: Antowain Smith #1 - very good career (7K yards); two excellent SB performances (92 yards and 83 yards respectively) in 2001 and 2003 2001: Travis Henry #2 - (over 6K yards) very good player with major personal issues that derailed his career 2003: Willis McGahee #1 - excellent career; 8500 yards 2007: Marshawn Lynch #1 - probably a HOF player 2010: CJ Spiller #1 - a disappointment, but it is the case that his 2012 season is arguably the best offensive single-season performance by a Bills offensive player this century (6.0 ypc; 10.2 ypc on 43 receptions--very high for a back) So, we have 12 RB picks. 9 were good-to-great players (3 HOF caliber); 2 flashed genuine greatness briefly (Spiller and Miller) but faded quickly; 1 was a bust (Moore), and 1 is a guy I couldn't tell you anything about because of the guy drafted before him (Enyart, drafted after OJ) That's a high hit rate by any stretch. Laughably, the Bills got rid of a lot of the guys who reached greatness elsewhere (including the Birmingham Stallions!). Cribbs, incidentally, had 2500 rushing yards and 80 receptions in two seasons with the Stallions. This occurred after his lawsuit against the Bills. Edited November 29, 2017 by dave mcbride 1
Mr. WEO Posted November 30, 2017 Posted November 30, 2017 (edited) 20 hours ago, dave mcbride said: Alright, let's look at a specific team -- our very own Buffalo Bills. Here are the Bills RB draft picks in the first two rounds going back to OJ: 1969: OJ #1; Bill Enyart #2 - OJ is an all time great; never heard of Enyart 1978: Terry Miller #1 - great, great rookie season; not sure why he cratered (I think injuries) 1980: Joe Cribbs #2 - great player 1981: Booker Moore #1 - bust, but IIRC he was diagnosed with Guillain-Barre syndrome shortly after being drafted. Bad luck. 1984: Greg Bell #1 - jerk but a very good player; had 18 TDs (!) in 1988 for the Rams 1986: Ronnie Harmon #1 - another jerk but a slightly-south-of-HOF caliber player (one of the better receiving backs in league history with 582 catches). 1988: Thurman Thomas #2 - HOF 1990: Carwell Gardner #2 - he doesn't really count because he was a FB and was drafted as such; it's the only position he played too. I'm not counting him. 1997: Antowain Smith #1 - very good career (7K yards); two excellent SB performances (92 yards and 83 yards respectively) in 2001 and 2003 2001: Travis Henry #2 - (over 6K yards) very good player with major personal issues that derailed his career 2003: Willis McGahee #1 - excellent career; 8500 yards 2007: Marshawn Lynch #1 - probably a HOF player 2010: CJ Spiller #1 - a disappointment, but it is the case that his 2012 season is arguably the best offensive single-season performance by a Bills offensive player this century (6.0 ypc; 10.2 ypc on 43 receptions--very high for a back) So, we have 12 RB picks. 9 were good-to-great players (3 HOF caliber); 2 flashed genuine greatness briefly (Spiller and Miller) but faded quickly; 1 was a bust (Moore), and 1 is a guy I couldn't tell you anything about because of the guy drafted before him (Enyart, drafted after OJ) That's a high hit rate by any stretch. Laughably, the Bills got rid of a lot of the guys who reached greatness elsewhere (including the Birmingham Stallions!). Cribbs, incidentally, had 2500 rushing yards and 80 receptions in two seasons with the Stallions. This occurred after his lawsuit against the Bills. Initially, we were discussing whether the fact that the majority of the best RBs of all time (by yards) was proof that it is easy to scout and pick 1st round RB top performers. Seems that goalpost has been moved and the bar has been lowered. Harmon can't count because he wasn't drafted to be a receiver. Smith was a decent/solid pick (or pickup, for NE anyway...), but not a top producer. Henry had 3 good years in a journeyman career. Same for McGahee. Bell and Cribbs were "Buffalo great". Spiller is a solid bust. Overall the hit rate just isn't good. I'm not sure how else to present the data. Remember 2005? Brown, Benson and "Cadillac" Williams---that's a combined 15,000 yards over 25 seasons. And they went 2,4 and 5! The next year was Addei , Deangelo Williams and Maroney. Williams had a solid career. 2004 had Steven Jackson, but it also had Chris Perry and Kevin Jones. 2002 had William Green and TJ Ducket. 2001 had Tomlinson, but also Macallister and Michael Bennett. 2000 was a big year that had Lewis/Jones/Alexander, but also Ron Dane and Trung Canidate. 1998 had Fred Taylor, but also Curtis Enis (#5), Robert Edwards and John Avery 1996 had Eddie George but also Lawrence Philips and Tim Biakabutuka 1995 had 5 RBs picked in the first 21 but the best was....James Stewart. Kijana Carter went #1 It goes on and on--from 1990-95, we got E Smith, Faulk and Bettis---but among the other 15 1st rounders, the next best guy was...Garrison Hearst. A large group of JAGs and busts. Picking a top RB ain't easy. Edited November 30, 2017 by Mr. WEO
Kelly the Dog Posted November 30, 2017 Posted November 30, 2017 20 hours ago, dave mcbride said: Alright, let's look at a specific team -- our very own Buffalo Bills. Here are the Bills RB draft picks in the first two rounds going back to OJ: 1969: OJ #1; Bill Enyart #2 - OJ is an all time great; never heard of Enyart 1978: Terry Miller #1 - great, great rookie season; not sure why he cratered (I think injuries) 1980: Joe Cribbs #2 - great player 1981: Booker Moore #1 - bust, but IIRC he was diagnosed with Guillain-Barre syndrome shortly after being drafted. Bad luck. 1984: Greg Bell #1 - jerk but a very good player; had 18 TDs (!) in 1988 for the Rams 1986: Ronnie Harmon #1 - another jerk but a slightly-south-of-HOF caliber player (one of the better receiving backs in league history with 582 catches). 1988: Thurman Thomas #2 - HOF 1990: Carwell Gardner #2 - he doesn't really count because he was a FB and was drafted as such; it's the only position he played too. I'm not counting him. 1997: Antowain Smith #1 - very good career (7K yards); two excellent SB performances (92 yards and 83 yards respectively) in 2001 and 2003 2001: Travis Henry #2 - (over 6K yards) very good player with major personal issues that derailed his career 2003: Willis McGahee #1 - excellent career; 8500 yards 2007: Marshawn Lynch #1 - probably a HOF player 2010: CJ Spiller #1 - a disappointment, but it is the case that his 2012 season is arguably the best offensive single-season performance by a Bills offensive player this century (6.0 ypc; 10.2 ypc on 43 receptions--very high for a back) So, we have 12 RB picks. 9 were good-to-great players (3 HOF caliber); 2 flashed genuine greatness briefly (Spiller and Miller) but faded quickly; 1 was a bust (Moore), and 1 is a guy I couldn't tell you anything about because of the guy drafted before him (Enyart, drafted after OJ) That's a high hit rate by any stretch. Laughably, the Bills got rid of a lot of the guys who reached greatness elsewhere (including the Birmingham Stallions!). Cribbs, incidentally, had 2500 rushing yards and 80 receptions in two seasons with the Stallions. This occurred after his lawsuit against the Bills. Bill "Earthquake" Enyart was an enourmous fullback the Bills drafted to block for OJ out of Oregon State I think. He was so bad that within one year, Bills fans started calling him "Tremor." True story.
dave mcbride Posted November 30, 2017 Posted November 30, 2017 45 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Initially, we were discussing whether the fact that the majority of the best RBs of all time (by yards) was proof that it is easy to scout and pick 1st round RB top performers. Seems that goalpost has been moved and the bar has been lowered. Harmon can't count because he wasn't drafted to be a receiver. Smith was a decent/solid pick (or pickup, for NE anyway...), but not a top producer. Henry had 3 good years in a journeyman career. Same for McGahee. Bell and Cribbs were "Buffalo great". Spiller is a solid bust. Overall the hit rate just isn't good. I'm not sure how else to present the data. Remember 2005? Brown, Benson and "Cadillac" Williams---that's a combined 15,000 yards over 25 seasons. And they went 2,4 and 5! The next year was Addei , Deangelo Williams and Maroney. Williams had a solid career. 2004 had Steven Jackson, but it also had Chris Perry and Kevin Jones. 2002 had William Green and TJ Ducket. 2001 had Tomlinson, but also Macallister and Michael Bennett. 2000 was a big year that had Lewis/Jones/Alexander, but also Ron Dane and Trung Canidate. 1998 had Fred Taylor, but also Curtis Enis (#5), Robert Edwards and John Avery 1996 had Eddie George but also Lawrence Philips and Tim Biakabutuka 1995 had 5 RBs picked in the first 21 but the best was....James Stewart. Kijana Carter went #1 It goes on and on--from 1990-95, we got E Smith, Faulk and Bettis---but among the other 15 1st rounders, the next best guy was...Garrison Hearst. A large group of JAGs and busts. Picking a top RB ain't easy. The goalposts haven't been moved at all. You're just arguing for the sake of arguing at this point.
Mr. WEO Posted November 30, 2017 Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, dave mcbride said: The goalposts haven't been moved at all. You're just arguing for the sake of arguing at this point. I'm really not. The evidence is overwhelming. I truly don't understand how you look past all of those missed picks--even on the Bills--and conclude it's an easy call for 1st round RBs. I'll stop there.
dave mcbride Posted November 30, 2017 Posted November 30, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said: I'm really not. The evidence is overwhelming. I truly don't understand how you look past all of those missed picks--even on the Bills--and conclude it's an easy call for 1st round RBs. I'll stop there. The evidence is not overwhelming, and moreover you didn't provide any beyond anecdotal listing that is divorced from comparative context. As an experiment, I suggest looking at Bills' d-line picks in the first two rounds going back to 1970 and see how they panned out. Al Cowlings, John Parrella, James Patton, Dee Hardison, Scott Hutchinson, Eric Flowers, Ryan Denney, Walt Patulski, Phil Dokes, Aaron Maybin, and (I fear) Shaq Lawson -- the results probably won't be pretty. And let's not even talk about the QB position, where Todd Collins is the norm. My very basic point, which you have not refuted, is that RB is an easier position to project *relative to other positions*. This is because the athletic skills for the position are obvious and the positional demands limited in scope relative to other positions. For one, the rushing routes are a lot less complex than receiver routes, and they are less dependent on the qb for production than receivers. Again, the Bills have drafted 11 HBs. 8 were good to really good. 2 had flashes but disappointed. 1 had Guillaine-Barr syndrome. Also, in what world was Deuce McAllister not a good player? He ran for 1700 yards one year and had 4 1,000+ yard seasons. Addai had two excellent years too - twice at ~1,500 yards from scrimmage and PFR AVs of 15 and 14. Yes, he faded relatively fast, but he was a good player for a time. Edited November 30, 2017 by dave mcbride
Mat68 Posted November 30, 2017 Posted November 30, 2017 (edited) An early pick needs to be a RB but not before QB. Edited November 30, 2017 by Mat68
Mr. WEO Posted November 30, 2017 Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, dave mcbride said: The evidence is not overwhelming, and moreover you didn't provide any beyond anecdotal listing that is divorced from comparative context. As an experiment, I suggest looking at Bills' d-line picks in the first two rounds going back to 1970 and see how they panned out. Al Cowlings, John Parrella, James Patton, Dee Hardison, Scott Hutchinson, Eric Flowers, Ryan Denney, Walt Patulski, Phil Dokes, Aaron Maybin, and (I fear) Shaq Lawson -- the results probably won't be pretty. And let's not even talk about the QB position, where Todd Collins is the norm. My very basic point, which you have not refuted, is that RB is an easier position to project *relative to other positions*. This is because the athletic skills for the position are obvious and the positional demands limited in scope relative to other positions. For one, the rushing routes are a lot less complex than receiver routes, and they are less dependent on the qb for production than receivers. Again, the Bills have drafted 11 HBs. 8 were good to really good. 2 had flashes but disappointed. 1 had Guillaine-Barr syndrome. Also, in what world was Deuce McAllister not a good player? He ran for 1700 yards one year and had 4 1,000+ yard seasons. Addai had two excellent years too - twice at ~1,500 yards from scrimmage and PFR AVs of 15 and 14. Yes, he faded relatively fast, but he was a good player for a time. "I try to get out...but they keep pulling me back in!!" lol What I have refuted is your original statement that since 75% of the all time great RBs were first rounders, this is the proof that RB is the one position where scouts "easily" and routinely get it right. Sure, RB is easier to pick than pretty much any defensive position, so not much point in comparing them. If you are down to having to label Spiller as "good to very good" (or any of the many many dozens of picks who had a couple of good years before they "faded") to maintain your original point, then you are lumping the all time greats with guys with flashes of good-to-greatness in order to say "see? It's the easiest position to pick because....look at all the hits". That's where I have to disagree. The fact that the list has to go back to Jim Brown to get 30 of the top RBs of all time (despite hundreds being drafted in the first round during that time to me says that RB is not too different than QB at separating the greats from the mediocrities (a couple of seasons of good utility isn't a "great" career) when it comes to scouting.
dave mcbride Posted November 30, 2017 Posted November 30, 2017 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: "I try to get out...but they keep pulling me back in!!" lol What I have refuted is your original statement that since 75% of the all time great RBs were first rounders, this is the proof that RB is the one position where scouts "easily" and routinely get it right. Sure, RB is easier to pick than pretty much any defensive position, so not much point in comparing them. If you are down to having to label Spiller as "good to very good" (or any of the many many dozens of picks who had a couple of good years before they "faded") to maintain your original point, then you are lumping the all time greats with guys with flashes of good-to-greatness in order to say "see? It's the easiest position to pick because....look at all the hits". That's where I have to disagree. The fact that the list has to go back to Jim Brown to get 30 of the top RBs of all time (despite hundreds being drafted in the first round during that time to me says that RB is not too different than QB at separating the greats from the mediocrities (a couple of seasons of good utility isn't a "great" career) when it comes to scouting. You are mischaracterizing what I said about Spiller. Revisit what I said above. He is not in my good-to-very good slot. Re the bolded part above, I'll take that as a white flag (because it applies to offense too!). Like Nixon and Vietnam (and me at halftime in my VHS tape of the fourth super bowl loss), I'm declaring victory and getting the hell out. Edited November 30, 2017 by dave mcbride
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