So what happens if the Bills draft their franchise QB and...

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...of course not......but rank them first by health and then production.......the law of diminishing returns.............

Sam Bradford passes a physical can most likely make it though training camp and than who knows what happens.  Actualy injury may be the easiest way of shifting to the rookie Qb.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

As much as some older guys feel different, Qbs are coming into the NFL better equipped than ever to succeed as a passer.  Vast majority of passing plays are done out of the shotgun so spread offenses are not that detrimental.  Qbs are throwing the ball more in college and in highschool than ever before.  IMO all you need to do is look at Indy and GB.  Overall those are 2 of the worst overall teams in the NFL right now.  Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers have made both of those teams competitive in recent years have even put each into the conference Championship game.  Remove them and they are 2 of the worst teams in the league.  

 

 

 

...then answer this.....if the Air Raid is actually a form of the spread, why then are "Air Raid QB's" treated like they were bred in a leper colony?.......looks to me like Mariota is making a nice transition....what SPECIFICALLY are the inherent differences eliciting this great FEAR if you say that will be all you have to work with coming out of collegiate ranks?...........

Edited November 25, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[TigerJ]

15 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

 

Overall though Buffalo is not a complete dumpster fire.  They have played extremely poor 3 weeks now, but the other 7 they have been competent.  Buffalo has a lot of draft picks and alot of cap space.  An actual franchise ability Qb with some improvements to the roster the team would be a bunch better landing spot than others at the top of the draft.  They are not the Browns.  A young Qb will have no hope.  No matter who.  

My post was a general answer to a hypothetical question that could affect any franchise.  I largely agree with you.  The Bills do have an issue with age on their roster, but outside the QB position they are not in terrible shape.  They need an upgrade in their linebacking and the middle of their D-line.  They also need to finally get their right tackle position settled and find a long term answer at CB across from White, but they are in decent cap shape in the upcoming off season and are in a good position to have an impact draft.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It happens.  A worse example than the Detroit Lions is the St Louis Rams.  They looked a bit promising Bradford's rookie season, then the wheels fell off.

Lots of reasons - lack of continuity in coaching played a role, poor player personnel evaluation/drafting was a big factor I think.

 

 

 

Hap:

 

...its sure as hell does......hindsight and crystal bawls are a beautiful thing as far as the draft....would you have forked over this number on Sam knowing what you know now?....OUCH....yet pundits here want to chase sSam in 2018......go figure that....$57 mil per gimpy knee.............

 

....."total earnings for Bradford through 2017 (through 8 seasons): $114 million ".........

[Mat68]

37 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...then answer this.....if the Air Raid is actually a form of the spread, why then are "Air Raid QB's" treated like they were bred in a leper colony?.......looks to me like Mariota is making a nice transition....what SPECIFICALLY are the inherent differences eliciting this great FEAR if you say that will be all you have to work with coming out of collegiate ranks?...........

 

I think it is more the caliber of player.  Air Raid has been utilized for the most part at smaller schools.  If the Qb has the size and arm talent it doesn't matter where you you play or what offense Wentz, Flacco,, Leftwich, Pennigton and this year Mahomes are examples all are not air raid like 2000s Cal or Texas Tech but schools that threw the rock all over .  Now look at Keenum similar style offense put up much better numbers probably one of if not the top college Qb of all time numbers wise.  He is small by NFL standards and has an ok arm not flashy or special that is why he was drafted late.  Can he stay healthy and have the natural talent to succeed in less than optimum postions.  Both similar offense one has better numbers but the Players with better Physical traits were drafted higher.  Than you have Cal under Tedford who recruited 2 Qbs with decent NFL size and complete cannons for arms.  One is Kyle Boller the other is Aaron Rodgers.  Mainly Air Raid style of offense production doesn't translate to the NFL they have put up video game type numbers over the years.  10 years ago it was risky.  You have to groom the QB to the NFL game and style.  Now you really have the best success grooming your offense to the player.  Look at KC you dont think Alex smith sees the writing on the wall with the style of offense Kc is using.  Similar to college spread and a style that completely matches Mahomes comfort level? Its a passing league, with exotic and fast defenses.  The Olines are poor but thier are rules in place that flip the balance to offense.  Simplest way to pass.  Start your Qb away from the line and spread the defense to limit what they can disguise do.  The pro style offense is dying in the pros as well as in college.   

Edited November 25, 2017 by Mat68

[Direhard Fan]

Why not hire a OC that can play to TT's strength and running the football like we did the last two years.  Why do these guys think they have to have it there way?  Dennison was not a good hire.  "D" was fine with Dareus double teamed every play.  Now the middle is shot.  No linebackers.  And we wonder what happened to the team.   Should have waited on the draft to replace Dareus.  This is not rocket science. 

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Nice analysis, and more thorough than my back of the envelope one.  Makes sense to me. I think I must have been trying to give these picks every benefit of the doubt. For example, you're right about Alex Smith. It didn't (and certainly wouldn't under the new CBA) do the Niners a whole lot of good that he emerged as a quality QB in his 6th season.  In today's NFL he would've been waived after that 4th miserable season, maybe sooner.  And I was quite charitable toward those injury cases (Locker), but from the team's perspective, why would they care whether a guy failed to succeed because he was just plain crap vs. he was o.k. but couldn't play because of injury? 

Finally, I think my perspective was that of "a guy who will be cost controlled and probably roughly as effective as a Tyrod Taylor over the course of 4-5 years."  Not a super high bar.  A good draft, picking in the top half of the first round (but no better than the 3rd QB selected) ... I guess it's fair to say it's at best a 50/50 proposition.

 

Actually if I remember corerctly Alex Smith got benched for Kaepernick in a similar situation as Tyrod got benched for Peterman(although with vastly different results)...Smith was not playing bad and the 49ers were winning when he got pulled...Smith was 6-2 for the 49ers with 13 TDs and 5 INTs, a completion percentage of 70%...he got a concussion and missed a game and then never regained his starting job...

 

Smith was NOT a bust for the 49ers...he just took longer to develop than you'd like for a guy drafted #1 overall..

 

His first season starting he had Peterman like numbers...1 TD, 11 INT's 50.9% completion percentage, QB rating of 40.8...those are downright terrible.

Second and Third were not much better...second season he basically started all the games and increased to 16 TDs 16 INTs 58.1% completion arte and 74.8 QB Ratign.  Still bad but better.  3rd season he actually regressed again... 2 TDs, 4 INTs 48.7% completion rate and a 57.2 QB Rating...

 

2008 he didn't play at all...in 2009 Smith started to turn things around...

 

Aex Smith is a tale of two starters...when he got benched for Kaepernick in 2012, he had a 104.1 QB rating...not exactly numbers of a bust...the year before that he had a 90.7 QB rating...still nowhere near bust territory..

 

Calling Smith a bust is just not factual.  He played poorly his first 3 seasons, then turned it around.

 

Edited November 25, 2017 by matter2003

[Boatdrinks]

File this in the " worry about it when it happens" dept. Find a QB first of all. 

[The Frankish Reich]

22 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Actually if I remember corerctly Alex Smith got benched for Kaepernick in a similar situation as Tyrod got benched for Peterman(although with vastly different results)...Smith was not playing bad and the 49ers were winning when he got pulled...Smith was 6-2 for the 49ers with 13 TDs and 5 INTs, a completion percentage of 70%...he got a concussion and missed a game and then never regained his starting job...

 

Smith was NOT a bust for the 49ers...he just took longer to develop than you'd like for a guy drafted #1 overall..

 

His first season starting he had Peterman like numbers...1 TD, 11 INT's 50.9% completion percentage, QB rating of 40.8...those are downright terrible.

Second and Third were not much better...second season he basically started all the games and increased to 16 TDs 16 INTs 58.1% completion arte and 74.8 QB Ratign.  Still bad but better.  3rd season he actually regressed again... 2 TDs, 4 INTs 48.7% completion rate and a 57.2 QB Rating...

 

2008 he didn't play at all...in 2009 Smith started to turn things around...

 

Aex Smith is a tale of two starters...when he got benched for Kaepernick in 2012, he had a 104.1 QB rating...not exactly numbers of a bust...the year before that he had a 90.7 QB rating...still nowhere near bust territory..

 

Calling Smith a bust is just not factual.  He played poorly his first 3 seasons, then turned it around.

 

Correct. I never would call Alex Smith a bust. But remember, in today's NFL playing poorly for your first 3 seasons = providing value for only a year or two at best (the 4 year rookie contract + 1 sub-market value 5th year option year).  Alex Smith in his 4th season:  5-5 W-L, 81.5 QB rating.  And his 5th season was similar.  Tyrod-esque. No way under today's CBA would they have franchise tagged him after that 5th season.  So basically in today's NFL if you draft a slow developing QB like Smith you're really not advancing the ball a whole lot. For the Bills, an Alex Smith developmental clone would likely mean the playoff drought moves awfully close to the quarter century mark.  There's a reason NFL GMs are so impatient now ... we might be better off picking up a Blake Bortles in free agency with the hope that he's about to make an Alex Smith jump rather than drafting a guy who takes 5 years to develop.

[Augie]

If you’ve got the Franchise QB, you’ve done the hard part. It’s up to the GM to get the other pieces, and the coaches to get them on the right page. 

[BigDingus]

You trade them, then try to fill the hole in the next draft. That's usually what we do will all other positions right? Draft a player, watch them develop into a great player, then let them leave via free agency or trade them for picks that we'll use to replace them. 

Always stuck in neutral. I mean look what we did with the RB position...

We had a Pro Bowl RB in Travis Henry, then spend a 1st round pick on an injured RB who won't play for his entire rookie season in Willis McGahee. Then McGahee starts taking off, and we trade him to the Ravens because he talks down about the city. Then we waste yet another 1st round pick on Marshawn Lynch, he gets to the Pro Bowl, but because he had character issues and got suspended a couple games, we spend ANOTHER 1st round pick on CJ Spiller! At one point we had Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson AND CJ Spiller on the roster at the same damn time!

And who ends up staying on the team the longest? The undrafted RB who we didn't use any picks on in Fred Jackson

 

[Senth]

We will get Kirk Cousins.

 

 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Correct. I never would call Alex Smith a bust. But remember, in today's NFL playing poorly for your first 3 seasons = providing value for only a year or two at best (the 4 year rookie contract + 1 sub-market value 5th year option year).  Alex Smith in his 4th season:  5-5 W-L, 81.5 QB rating.  And his 5th season was similar.  Tyrod-esque. No way under today's CBA would they have franchise tagged him after that 5th season.  So basically in today's NFL if you draft a slow developing QB like Smith you're really not advancing the ball a whole lot. For the Bills, an Alex Smith developmental clone would likely mean the playoff drought moves awfully close to the quarter century mark.  There's a reason NFL GMs are so impatient now ... we might be better off picking up a Blake Bortles in free agency with the hope that he's about to make an Alex Smith jump rather than drafting a guy who takes 5 years to develop.

 

I'd prefer picking up Case Keenum or Alex Smith even if we go the FA route

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Are you thinking of Derek Carr of the Raiders not being a bust?  Derek’s brother David was the first overall pick the year he was drafted and established himself as a good starter.

my bad.   

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, Mat68 said:

 

I think it is more the caliber of player.  Air Raid has been utilized for the most part at smaller schools.  If the Qb has the size and arm talent it doesn't matter where you you play or what offense Wentz, Flacco,, Leftwich, Pennigton and this year Mahomes are examples all are not air raid like 2000s Cal or Texas Tech but schools that threw the rock all over .  Now look at Keenum similar style offense put up much better numbers probably one of if not the top college Qb of all time numbers wise.  He is small by NFL standards and has an ok arm not flashy or special that is why he was drafted late.  Can he stay healthy and have the natural talent to succeed in less than optimum postions.  Both similar offense one has better numbers but the Players with better Physical traits were drafted higher.  Than you have Cal under Tedford who recruited 2 Qbs with decent NFL size and complete cannons for arms.  One is Kyle Boller the other is Aaron Rodgers.  Mainly Air Raid style of offense production doesn't translate to the NFL they have put up video game type numbers over the years.  10 years ago it was risky.  You have to groom the QB to the NFL game and style.  Now you really have the best success grooming your offense to the player.  Look at KC you dont think Alex smith sees the writing on the wall with the style of offense Kc is using.  Similar to college spread and a style that completely matches Mahomes comfort level? Its a passing league, with exotic and fast defenses.  The Olines are poor but thier are rules in place that flip the balance to offense.  Simplest way to pass.  Start your Qb away from the line and spread the defense to limit what they can disguise do.  The pro style offense is dying in the pros as well as in college.   

 

 

...CANNOT argue that point......think it all boils down to what a collegian has between his EARS regardless of his college system indoctrination and how quickly he can assimilate to the speed/complexity of the NFL game as well as the scheme his coaching staff wants to run...the mental game remains THE first and foremost hurdle in my mind......STILL maintain the scheme must be flexible enough to adapt to the player(s) strengths...think about what a kid or even a vet has to do within a scant 5 seconds or less ala read the defense/understand coverages, audible, know his hots or secondaries, dumps, etc.....for chrissake, it take me TWELVE seconds to sip my damn coffee.........FIVE seconds?...not a chance.........

[Mat68]

12 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...CANNOT argue that point......think it all boils down to what a collegian has between his EARS regardless of his college system indoctrination and how quickly he can assimilate to the speed/complexity of the NFL game as well as the scheme his coaching staff wants to run...the mental game remains THE first and foremost hurdle in my mind......STILL maintain the scheme must be flexible enough to adapt to the player(s) strengths...think about what a kid or even a vet has to do within a scant 5 seconds or less ala read the defense/understand coverages, audible, know his hots or secondaries, dumps, etc.....for chrissake, it take me TWELVE seconds to sip my damn coffee.........FIVE seconds?...not a chance.........

 

Right.  By pro style I mean I formations 2 Rbs 2 Wrs and Te with a Qb under center.  The Defenses are just too quick and sophisticated for that to be a reliable offense.  Now it is still important for short yardage and 5 min offense.  Overall, the offenses are moving towards 3 pass catchers 1 inline Te and a running back.  Offers better versatility to better determine the best match up.  Colleges and Chip Kelly had very good theories about offense and tempo.  Modern offense is about versatility and match ups.  Get guys in one on one situations that favor you is the way to succeed.  

[Foreigner]

So what happens if the Bills draft their franchise QB and.....THE D STILL STINKS.

[Tatonka68]

12 hours ago, Foreigner said:

So what happens if the Bills draft their franchise QB and.....THE D STILL STINKS.

Then they draft defense in 2019.

[Alphadawg7]

I don't understand the point of this thread either.  What do you mean what then?  I am confused, you start a thread for the purpose of saying this play today is proof Tyrod has to be replaced.  But then you start this thread saying what if we still stink with a good QB.  Its almost like you're saying its not just the QB in one thread, but its all the QB in the other thread.  

 

There is only one way to build a team...replace bad players with better players...period.  So not sure why this is a question as there is only one answer.  Every season, every team goes into a draft for the purpose of finding better players than the ones they have at those positions.  Same with Free Agency.  So if the rest of the team has big holes in it, you keep drafting and signing players to best fill those holes.  End of story.  You win when you get to a point the talent level is high enough to overcome any remaining holes or weak spots.  

[Big Turk]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I don't understand the point of this thread either.  What do you mean what then?  I am confused, you start a thread for the purpose of saying this play today is proof Tyrod has to be replaced.  But then you start this thread saying what if we still stink with a good QB.  Its almost like you're saying its not just the QB in one thread, but its all the QB in the other thread.  

 

There is only one way to build a team...replace bad players with better players...period.  So not sure why this is a question as there is only one answer.  Every season, every team goes into a draft for the purpose of finding better players than the ones they have at those positions.  Same with Free Agency.  So if the rest of the team has big holes in it, you keep drafting and signing players to best fill those holes.  End of story.  You win when you get to a point the talent level is high enough to overcome any remaining holes or weak spots.  

 

This thread was started well before today.  It's pretty simple, it only takes basic reading comprehension to understand it.  It's a valid question.  

 

That's a very simplistic and unrealistic way to look at things. One that doesn't take into account the realities of a salary cap and free agency.  You might have a great player that you want to keep but you simply can't due to salary cap implications.  You only can spend so much money for each position on the team.  You can't keep an expensive second WR if you already are paying a #1.  Maybe you have to let a D-Lineman or O-Lineman go that you really don't want to because you know they are going to get a boatload from a taem on the open market and it breaks your salary cap structure.  This is not making your team better by having to replace him but its a neccessary evil.

 

Saying its as easy as looking at talent and then replacing it with better talent is a really silly way to look at things that doesn't take into account a lot of variables that need to be taken into account.  Yes, you can draft players to replace ones that you let go but that doesn't mean you are making your team better by doing it.  Also doesn't account for coach preferences, schemes, etc.  A player may be a great player but not great in that scheme because you are asking him to do things he doesn't do well based on his role in that scheme.  

 

So back to the topic...replacing people is all well and good but what if the QB is the problem? He puts up big numbers, big stats, is considered elite, but he doesn't win games?

 

Edited November 27, 2017 by matter2003