So what happens if the Bills draft their franchise QB and...

[Heavy Kevi]

17 hours ago, matter2003 said:

He is the real deal but two years later the team is in the same position as the Sabres are with their franchise player...namely the cellar. 

 

What then? Its a thought nobody really talks about...all you hear is how they need this type of player...and I wholeheartedly agree.

 

What we don't stop and talk about is what happens if he is as good as advertised but the team still sucks?  What do we do then?

 

Keep trying. Good QBs generally play for a long time. Keep trying to find the right sauce. 

 

That's also what the Sabres should do. Settle in with Eich, keep the players that play well with him, and keep tinkering until you have a good gumbo.

[26CornerBlitz]

17 hours ago, matter2003 said:

He is the real deal but two years later the team is in the same position as the Sabres are with their franchise player...namely the cellar. 

 

What then? Its a thought nobody really talks about...all you hear is how they need this type of player...and I wholeheartedly agree.

 

What we don't stop and talk about is what happens if he is as good as advertised but the team still sucks?  What do we do then?

 

BBFS on steroids!

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

36 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

What a sad bunch. Middle of the season still whining about the “franchise qb” dream. 

 

there go again nedboy. folks discussing the future QB and you proclaim it as whining.

 

when the reality is, that's all you do is whine instead of adding anything of substance to the discussion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, DriveFor1Outta5 said:

The fact that you included Bradford as a “hit” made me ask myself a simple question. Is he the most overrated QB in the history of the game? If we draft a guy who has a Bradford like career, our playoff drought will not be over. 

No that would be Joe Namath

32 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

BBFS on steroids!

 

Ots a valid question...look around rhe league there are a good numbee of teams in this position right now...

2 hours ago, 8-8 Forever? said:

Jack Eichel is a nice player but not a franchise player.    McDavid was the franchise player and they missed on him.  

Umm...you are just wrong in that assessment.

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

No that would be Joe Namath

 

Ots a valid question...look around rhe league there are a good numbee of teams in this position right now...

Umm...you are just wrong in that assessment.

 

How about they identify and acquire a 'franchise" QB before worrying about whether they can build around him.  

[Johnny Hammersticks]

What if we draft our stud franchise QB this year, and he gets mauled by a gorilla that escaped from the zoo??  Oh no!  I’m concerned 

[The Frankish Reich]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I and Dibs and I think others have done this kind of analysis - I went through 3 rounds, Dibs divided up the first into top 10, mid 10, bottom 12 or something like that.  We all concluded the chances of getting a decent QB were 50% ish in the top third of the 1st round, dropped to about 30% by the bottom third, and stayed at 20-30% for Rd 2 and 3. 

 

I don't think the chances of getting a QB who will, say, be pretty good for, say, 5 years, are as high as 2 out of 3.  Since folks are talking about 2-3 years to complete building the roster, 2-3 years won't do, right?

 

Let's cut off at 2014 since 2 1/2 seasons of e v a l isn't much by the 2-3 year time to develop/roster build notion.  That gets us 25 players:

12 "hits"

5 "mixeds"

8 "busts"

But amoung those "hits" you have Bradford - a guy who just KILLED his draft team by looking like crud his 2nd season, then getting injured...followed by successive tease years (might be good) and injuries.  Two years where he looked good for the Eagles and Vikes and he's done it again.  Then you have Alex Smith as a hit - a guy who made it onto the "top 5 biggest QB draft busts of all time" lists because it took him 6 years to become a functional NFL QB.   They were NOT hits to the team that drafted them.  Was it their fault, not entirely, bad coaching and bad teams around them played a role.  Switch them to "mixed"

 

Now you have 10/25 success or 40% - right on target with previous assessments. 

 

I would also posit close to or better than 60% completions, near 7 AY/A and a TD/INT ratio of >1.5 as criteria for assessing success of a modern QB.

By those standards, Mark Sanchez had 2 good years (his 5th& 6th, with Philly); Vince Young had maybe 1 good year (his 5th) or maybe 2 (4th and 5th); Jake Locker maybe 1 good year (his 3rd - then retired after 4).  I would lobby for calling them "busts" to their drafting team.

 

 

 

 

I think it is about even, or a bit less - see my post above

Nice analysis, and more thorough than my back of the envelope one.  Makes sense to me. I think I must have been trying to give these picks every benefit of the doubt. For example, you're right about Alex Smith. It didn't (and certainly wouldn't under the new CBA) do the Niners a whole lot of good that he emerged as a quality QB in his 6th season.  In today's NFL he would've been waived after that 4th miserable season, maybe sooner.  And I was quite charitable toward those injury cases (Locker), but from the team's perspective, why would they care whether a guy failed to succeed because he was just plain crap vs. he was o.k. but couldn't play because of injury? 

Finally, I think my perspective was that of "a guy who will be cost controlled and probably roughly as effective as a Tyrod Taylor over the course of 4-5 years."  Not a super high bar.  A good draft, picking in the top half of the first round (but no better than the 3rd QB selected) ... I guess it's fair to say it's at best a 50/50 proposition.

[Real McClappy]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Are you thinking of Derek Carr of the Raiders not being a bust?  Derek’s brother David was the first overall pick the year he was drafted and established himself as a good starter.

This thread is interesting. It does show how important a good O-line is with a shiny new QB though and is the #1 priority IMO to establish after your guy at QB is drafted or established.

 

David Carr is an interesting one as he still holds the NFL record for most sacks in a season with 76 and also 3rd all time with 68 in another season. Poor bastard was sacked about 250 times with Houston over 4.5 years which is insane. His career pretty much ended there. If he had a solid O-line from his 2nd year on would he still be playing or busted at the position?

 

As a team you need to give your QB support (on the O-line and a decent running game)  when developing or you can and will break them.

Edited November 25, 2017 by Real McCoy

[Mat68]

As much as some older guys feel different, Qbs are coming into the NFL better equipped than ever to succeed as a passer.  Vast majority of passing plays are done out of the shotgun so spread offenses are not that detrimental.  Qbs are throwing the ball more in college and in highschool than ever before.  IMO all you need to do is look at Indy and GB.  Overall those are 2 of the worst overall teams in the NFL right now.  Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers have made both of those teams competitive in recent years have even put each into the conference Championship game.  Remove them and they are 2 of the worst teams in the league.  

 

So I am assuming this is being brought up because a vast majority of people feel that Buffalo needs a bonafide franchise Qb.  No more journeyman Qb getting his shot, no more mid rd flyier who unnamed scout x says he is the most pro ready.  Already with 5 wins Buffalo does not have a chance of getting the spot to draft the best or even one of the best naturally.  Over the last 6 months Buffalo has made numerous trades and have acquired an extra 1 , 2 , 3 and a handful of conditional mid and late rd picks.  They already parlayed the extra 3rd for a number 1 wr.  Still they have two firsts, two seconds, and a third.  To move up the last few years It has required 2 ones and another pick in the top 60 of the draft.  Equity wise they have the ability to keep 3 of the 5 top picks this year and give up a pick next year depending on which pick they give up this year besides the one they flip.  By having that equity they have the ability to get a bonafide Qb and 2 quality starters this year.  Now is the time.  Cleveland is the perfect example that the theory of more picks the better is not true.  The better the players the better.  Bring some direction to this franchise go get this franchise and fan base and Qb we all can get behind.  

Edited November 25, 2017 by Mat68

[Bill from NYC]

18 hours ago, matter2003 said:

He is the real deal but two years later the team is in the same position as the Sabres are with their franchise player...namely the cellar. 

 

What then? Its a thought nobody really talks about...all you hear is how they need this type of player...and I wholeheartedly agree.

 

What we don't stop and talk about is what happens if he is as good as advertised but the team still sucks?  What do we do then?

Actually, this is a great question. My opinion is that you get him some blocking in short order.

 

The year before the Colts drafted Peyton Manning, they drafted LT Tarik Glenn in round 1 and RT Adam Meadows in round 2. The Bills don't do things like this but this year there are extra picks. It would be nice to see them forego the running back and defensive back positions just once in order to focus more on blocking.

 

Do you think this is possible?

[Rocky Landing]

What happens if we land our franchise QB, and the best thing we have as a mentor on the roster is Nate Peterman? Do we start the rookie and hope he isn't ruined by being thrown out there too soon? Do we go shopping for whatever vet is available because we've kicked TT out of the building?

 

Finding a franchise QB is only half the question. How the coaching staff manages that player once we get him is the other half.

Edited November 25, 2017 by Rocky Landing

[Mat68]

Bring in Keenum, Bradford or similar type of veteran qb.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

18 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I guess you are basing this snark on all the trades they made. Get back to me in late April and let me know if having all those picks still sucks?

 

....EXACTLY.....when is the last time Buffalo had this level of draft capital?......although it is on paper and untested, Pegula's BIG check book allowed Beane to assemble a staff that consists of some very high level personnel guys who will need to produce despite the draft never being an exact science.......

[TigerJ]

This is why it is so hard to be an NFL GM.  You draft your QB in the first round and hope for the best.  You may not know whether or not he's a franchise worthy QB that first year.  Jared Goff was labeled a bust at the end of the last season, but he's led the Rams on a pretty nice run this season.  You start out the next season and it seems like your QB has the qualities you want, but your's still losing - there are going to be a bunch of evaluations going on from the coaches on up.  The position coaches will be trying to figure out why certain players aren't producing and what off season personnel changes will need to take place.  The head coach will work on those same evaluations and add the assistant coaches to the list of personnel he's got to evaluate.  The GM is going to evaluate all of the above and add the head coach.  The owner probably won't pay a great deal of attention to mos of the player evaluations, though if somebody sticks out like a sore thumb, he's going to notice.  He will play particular attention to the head coach and GM.  Certainly, at the end of your franchise QB's second season, with continued futility, heads are going to role.  whose heads depends on who is doing the lopping.

Edited November 25, 2017 by TigerJ

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

Bring in Keenum, Bradford or similar type of veteran qb.  

 

Would love Bradford if he could ever stay healthy.  Unfortunately he can't.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

Bring in Keenum, Bradford or similar type of veteran qb.  

 

 

.....with Bradford's DUAL knees as well as Teddy's long term uncertainty, letting Keenum walk makes zero sense.....

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

.....with Bradford's DUAL knees as well as Teddy's long term uncertainty, letting Keenum walk makes zero sense.....

 

Doesnt mean it wont happen.  Mainly the Vikings are not keeping all 3 next year.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Just now, Mat68 said:

 

Doesnt mean it wont happen.  Mainly the Vikings are not keeping all 3 next year.

 

...of course not......but rank them first by health and then production.......the law of diminishing returns.............

[Mat68]

3 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

This is why it is so hard to be an NFL GM.  You draft your QB in the first round and hope for the best.  You may not know whether or not he's a franchise worthy QB that first year.  Jared Goff was labeled a bust at the end of the last season, but he's led the Rams on a pretty nice run this season.  You start out the next season and it seems like your QB has the qualities you want, but your's still losing - there are going to be a bunch of evaluations going on from the coaches on up.  The position coaches will be trying to figure out why certain players aren't producing and what off season personnel changes will need to take place.  The head coach will work on those same evaluations and add the assistant coaches to the list of personnel he's got to evaluate.  The GM is going to evaluate all of the above and add the head coach.  The owner probably won't pay a great deal of attention to mos of the player evaluations, though if somebody sticks out like a sore thumb, he's going to notice.  He will play particular attention to the head coach and GM.  Certainly, at the end of your franchise QB's second season, with continued futility, heads are going to role.  whose heads depends on who is doing the lopping.

 

Overall though Buffalo is not a complete dumpster fire.  They have played extremely poor 3 weeks now, but the other 7 they have been competent.  Buffalo has a lot of draft picks and alot of cap space.  An actual franchise ability Qb with some improvements to the roster the team would be a bunch better landing spot than others at the top of the draft.  They are not the Browns.  A young Qb will have no hope.  No matter who.  

[Formerly Allan in MD]

19 hours ago, Putin said:

 Lets hope we're lucky enough to hit on a franchise QB in this draft , 

Bills lucky?