DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 get the QB first. bolster the line in the same draft. next draft bolster the Dline and LB sprinkle some fa pick ups in there. it's going to be two full off seasons and possibly the third before they have this roster ready to contend. but it would seem important to get your QB and build his line in the first off season? 1
Tatonka68 Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 If you don't try you will never find out, repeating the same stupid plan over the last 17 years leads to the same result. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 (edited) Top 16 draft picks QBs since 2000 (top 16 so I can have the joy of including EJ) Vick - hit (gets a big asterisk for those missing prison years) David Carr - bust Joey Harrington - bust Palmer - hit Leftwich - bust Eli - hit Rivers - hit Ben - hit Alex Smith - hit (but it took a while) Vince Young - mixed (not what you hoped for, but was productive for a while) Leinert - bust Jay Cutler - hit (I know, but over a decade as a starter) JaMarcus - bust of epic proportions Ryan - hit Stafford - hit Sanchez - mixed (see Young, Vince) Bradford - hit Newton - hit Locker - mixed (a close call, a good bust argument to be made) Gabbert - bust (unless we see a big late resurgence here) Ponder - bust RG3 - mixed (no one who's that good even for that short a time gets labeled a bust in my book) Tannehill - hit (see Cutler, Jay ... if healthy, he's on his way to a long and mediocre career; I guess I could add a separate "true franchise QB" to differentiate this type of guy) EJ - bust Bortles - mixed (see Locker, Jake) Winston - mixed/incomplete/trending down Mariota - mixed/incomplete/trending up Goff - mixed/incomplete/trending up Wentz - hit Trubisky - incomplete Mahomes - incomplete Watson - hit (but see Griffin, Robert III) So out of 31 first half of the first round picks in this millennium, we've got: 14 hits 8 busts 4 mixed results 5 incompletes The chances of getting your man and having him turn out not to be the man (as in The Franchise)? Probably about 50% ... and a bit higher if you're drafting in the teens. On the other hand, chances of getting at least a solid QB who'll be pretty good for at least a few years and maybe longer? Probably closer to 2 out of 3. Edited November 25, 2017 by The Frankish Reich 1
reddogblitz Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 2 hours ago, Comebackkid said: Whoever the shiny new qb is, they better be bullet proof with this O-line He'll be the next David Carr.
Big Turk Posted November 25, 2017 Author Posted November 25, 2017 2 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: get the QB first. bolster the line in the same draft. next draft bolster the Dline and LB sprinkle some fa pick ups in there. it's going to be two full off seasons and possibly the third before they have this roster ready to contend. but it would seem important to get your QB and build his line in the first off season? Yeah youd think so because the QB is gonna need time to develop...no point having a team ready to win with a rookie QB...most times that doesnt turn out well..
Da webster guy Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 Interesting post from the Frankish Reich. I would have guessed far less than 50% would be hits but it does seem about even. This makes me feel a little better, on the other hand it looks as if the qb talent everyone was raving about before the season started has cooled off and boiled down to Rosen as the clear cut #1 overall. Id love to have him but if we can't oh please lord let the kid go to Cleveland and light up the league for a long time.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 7 hours ago, matter2003 said: He is the real deal but two years later the team is in the same position as the Sabres are with their franchise player...namely the cellar. What then? Its a thought nobody really talks about...all you hear is how they need this type of player...and I wholeheartedly agree. What we don't stop and talk about is what happens if he is as good as advertised but the team still sucks? What do we do then? It happens. A worse example than the Detroit Lions is the St Louis Rams. They looked a bit promising Bradford's rookie season, then the wheels fell off. Lots of reasons - lack of continuity in coaching played a role, poor player personnel evaluation/drafting was a big factor I think.
LABILLBACKER Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 Draft the qb Then draft the oline to protect him Then draft defense
Sweats Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 It's simple, really...........all you have to do is cut, release or fire everyone and start over. You know, kind of what we're doing now.
KD in CA Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 You sell the team to some big tech investor who will move them to Oakland to replace the Raiders.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Top 16 draft picks QBs since 2000 (top 16 so I can have the joy of including EJ) Vick - hit (gets a big asterisk for those missing prison years) David Carr - bust Joey Harrington - bust Palmer - hit Leftwich - bust Eli - hit Rivers - hit Ben - hit Alex Smith - hit (but it took a while) Vince Young - mixed (not what you hoped for, but was productive for a while) Leinert - bust Jay Cutler - hit (I know, but over a decade as a starter) JaMarcus - bust of epic proportions Ryan - hit Stafford - hit Sanchez - mixed (see Young, Vince) Bradford - hit Newton - hit Locker - mixed (a close call, a good bust argument to be made) Gabbert - bust (unless we see a big late resurgence here) Ponder - bust RG3 - mixed (no one who's that good even for that short a time gets labeled a bust in my book) Tannehill - hit (see Cutler, Jay ... if healthy, he's on his way to a long and mediocre career; I guess I could add a separate "true franchise QB" to differentiate this type of guy) EJ - bust Bortles - mixed (see Locker, Jake) Winston - mixed/incomplete/trending down Mariota - mixed/incomplete/trending up Goff - mixed/incomplete/trending up Wentz - hit Trubisky - incomplete Mahomes - incomplete Watson - hit (but see Griffin, Robert III) So out of 31 first half of the first round picks in this millennium, we've got: 14 hits 8 busts 4 mixed results 5 incompletes The chances of getting your man and having him turn out not to be the man (as in The Franchise)? Probably about 50% ... and a bit higher if you're drafting in the teens. On the other hand, chances of getting at least a solid QB who'll be pretty good for at least a few years and maybe longer? Probably closer to 2 out of 3. I and Dibs and I think others have done this kind of analysis - I went through 3 rounds, Dibs divided up the first into top 10, mid 10, bottom 12 or something like that. We all concluded the chances of getting a decent QB were 50% ish in the top third of the 1st round, dropped to about 30% by the bottom third, and stayed at 20-30% for Rd 2 and 3. I don't think the chances of getting a QB who will, say, be pretty good for, say, 5 years, are as high as 2 out of 3. Since folks are talking about 2-3 years to complete building the roster, 2-3 years won't do, right? Let's cut off at 2014 since 2 1/2 seasons of e v a l isn't much by the 2-3 year time to develop/roster build notion. That gets us 25 players: 12 "hits" 5 "mixeds" 8 "busts" But amoung those "hits" you have Bradford - a guy who just KILLED his draft team by looking like crud his 2nd season, then getting injured...followed by successive tease years (might be good) and injuries. Two years where he looked good for the Eagles and Vikes and he's done it again. Then you have Alex Smith as a hit - a guy who made it onto the "top 5 biggest QB draft busts of all time" lists because it took him 6 years to become a functional NFL QB. They were NOT hits to the team that drafted them. Was it their fault, not entirely, bad coaching and bad teams around them played a role. Switch them to "mixed" Now you have 10/25 success or 40% - right on target with previous assessments. I would also posit close to or better than 60% completions, near 7 AY/A and a TD/INT ratio of >1.5 as criteria for assessing success of a modern QB. By those standards, Mark Sanchez had 2 good years (his 5th& 6th, with Philly); Vince Young had maybe 1 good year (his 5th) or maybe 2 (4th and 5th); Jake Locker maybe 1 good year (his 3rd - then retired after 4). I would lobby for calling them "busts" to their drafting team. 1 hour ago, Da webster guy said: Interesting post from the Frankish Reich. I would have guessed far less than 50% would be hits but it does seem about even. This makes me feel a little better, on the other hand it looks as if the qb talent everyone was raving about before the season started has cooled off and boiled down to Rosen as the clear cut #1 overall. Id love to have him but if we can't oh please lord let the kid go to Cleveland and light up the league for a long time. I think it is about even, or a bit less - see my post above
Thurman#1 Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 8 hours ago, matter2003 said: He is the real deal but two years later the team is in the same position as the Sabres are with their franchise player...namely the cellar. What then? Its a thought nobody really talks about...all you hear is how they need this type of player...and I wholeheartedly agree. What we don't stop and talk about is what happens if he is as good as advertised but the team still sucks? What do we do then? If he's as good as advertised, IMHO the odds are very low that the team would still suck. But assuming it happens, Bills fans won't find it a new experience or any more difficult to deal with than the last 17 years.
cba fan Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 9 hours ago, matter2003 said: He is the real deal but two years later the team is in the same position as the Sabres are with their franchise player...namely the cellar. What then? Its a thought nobody really talks about...all you hear is how they need this type of player...and I wholeheartedly agree. What we don't stop and talk about is what happens if he is as good as advertised but the team still sucks? What do we do then? It starts with "ONE".......one QB. Until you have that nothing else matters. If line really sucks you play the second string guy for parts of games to take the beating off the clear franchise #1 guy. Think outside the box.
Big Turk Posted November 25, 2017 Author Posted November 25, 2017 35 minutes ago, cba fan said: It starts with "ONE".......one QB. Until you have that nothing else matters. If line really sucks you play the second string guy for parts of games to take the beating off the clear franchise #1 guy. Think outside the box. It sounds good...just too many instances of teams with the "One" that aren't very good...
8-8 Forever? Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 15 hours ago, matter2003 said: He is the real deal but two years later the team is in the same position as the Sabres are with their franchise player...namely the cellar. What then? Its a thought nobody really talks about...all you hear is how they need this type of player...and I wholeheartedly agree. What we don't stop and talk about is what happens if he is as good as advertised but the team still sucks? What do we do then? Jack Eichel is a nice player but not a franchise player. McDavid was the franchise player and they missed on him.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 David Carr - bust? Nice try but wrong.
OldTimer1960 Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 26 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: David Carr - bust? Nice try but wrong. Are you thinking of Derek Carr of the Raiders not being a bust? Derek’s brother David was the first overall pick the year he was drafted and established himself as a good starter.
Buddo Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 In the sort of 'window' you are talking about, you should be able to spend some solid coin, on good FAs who can bolster the lines. In that window, you should also have drafted some in slightly lower rounds, who are also good enough to provide the sort of protection needed - e.g. Glenn. As regards looking after said QB, if you start him, you should be looking for him to be throwing as little as possible to begin with, and having a good TE on the roster. Pretty much what the Steelers did.
DriveFor1Outta5 Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 11 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Top 16 draft picks QBs since 2000 (top 16 so I can have the joy of including EJ) Vick - hit (gets a big asterisk for those missing prison years) David Carr - bust Joey Harrington - bust Palmer - hit Leftwich - bust Eli - hit Rivers - hit Ben - hit Alex Smith - hit (but it took a while) Vince Young - mixed (not what you hoped for, but was productive for a while) Leinert - bust Jay Cutler - hit (I know, but over a decade as a starter) JaMarcus - bust of epic proportions Ryan - hit Stafford - hit Sanchez - mixed (see Young, Vince) Bradford - hit Newton - hit Locker - mixed (a close call, a good bust argument to be made) Gabbert - bust (unless we see a big late resurgence here) Ponder - bust RG3 - mixed (no one who's that good even for that short a time gets labeled a bust in my book) Tannehill - hit (see Cutler, Jay ... if healthy, he's on his way to a long and mediocre career; I guess I could add a separate "true franchise QB" to differentiate this type of guy) EJ - bust Bortles - mixed (see Locker, Jake) Winston - mixed/incomplete/trending down Mariota - mixed/incomplete/trending up Goff - mixed/incomplete/trending up Wentz - hit Trubisky - incomplete Mahomes - incomplete Watson - hit (but see Griffin, Robert III) So out of 31 first half of the first round picks in this millennium, we've got: 14 hits 8 busts 4 mixed results 5 incompletes The chances of getting your man and having him turn out not to be the man (as in The Franchise)? Probably about 50% ... and a bit higher if you're drafting in the teens. On the other hand, chances of getting at least a solid QB who'll be pretty good for at least a few years and maybe longer? Probably closer to 2 out of 3. The fact that you included Bradford as a “hit” made me ask myself a simple question. Is he the most overrated QB in the history of the game? If we draft a guy who has a Bradford like career, our playoff drought will not be over.
nedboy7 Posted November 25, 2017 Posted November 25, 2017 What a sad bunch. Middle of the season still whining about the “franchise qb” dream.
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