Peterman Arm Strength

[skibum]

A stronger arm equals a faster release. If you watch Fitzpatrick make a long throw or even a short dart, he has to rooster his arm back and wind up his whole body first. A guy like Stafford can throw a rope with a quick flick.There's not a lot of difference in speed and trajectory once the ball leaves their respective hands - it's what it takes to generate that velocity that really counts. 

 

Ha ha, I just noticed that my comment was corrected to say "rooster" instead of "c0ck"! No dirty intent, I was using it as a harmless verb!

Edited November 16, 2017 by skibum

[Foxx]

25 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Interesting comments.  Thanks.  Particularly interesting that Peterman's number was corrected to 53.   No one gave a link, but I'll take it. 

 

To say arm strength doesn't matter is just nonsense.   It absolutely matters.   It matters on deep balls, because the guys with weaker arms have to use their bodies more to get the ball there on time, and more body motion generally affects accuracy negatively.   It also matters on the shorter line drive throws for the same reason.  

 

Pennington would have been an NFL star if he had arm strength.  He was dealy accurate, and he was smart, but defenses knew he wasn't going to hurt them deep, and limited his effectiveness.  

 

Interesting comments from several of you about guys improving their arm strengthj with, I suppose, coaching, training and practice. 

 

Finally, ball velocity IS what it's all about.   The higher the initial velocity, the faster the ball gets there and the longer it will go.   It's basic physics.    If I throw it 10% faster than you, the ball is going to go 10% farther; if we're throwing the same distance, mine will get there 10% faster.  

arm strength matters as much as Tyrods passer rating is that it? 

 

you'll have to excuse me if i totally dismiss your assumptions when it comes to quarterback play. you were so wrong for 2 and one half years, it's not funny. you won't own it though because thats just how you roll.

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

I highly doubt Peterman went as low as he did because his combine numbers...

 

if you are drafting QBs because combine numbers than you will be out of a job quickly 

 

thats the one position you almost solely Rely on game tape for 

 

the combine is good for seeing how he meshes with players he's never worked with before and not much else besides interviews

And the film is where the arm strength issue was identified.   Here's what the NFL.com scouting report said.  Notice that all of the negatives are about his ability to deliver the ball with pace.  Notice also all the positives.   I'm anxious to see him play:

 

STRENGTHS

 Smooth, quick set-up in pocket. Grips the ball with big, 10-inch hands. Poised in pocket and takes the hit to deliver a completion. Will set-up, slide and then re-set before making his throw. Can cut it loose from off-balance angles from bootleg or play-action if he sees a winning option break open early. Full field reader. Works all the way through his progressions. Shoots glances at safeties to keep them in check. Strong natural accuracy. Able to throw receivers open and lead them away from danger. Can pinpoint passes to moving targets in his intermediate work. Has enough arm to work field side, intermediate throws. Great vision. Sees passing windows before they develop. Throws with outstanding timing and anticipation. Can put the ball on receivers' hands as soon as they come out of a break if coverage dictates it. Utilizes accuracy and anticipation to challenge windows on all three levels. Won at Clemson hanging five touchdown passes on their talented stop unit. Good escapability and can extend drives with his legs. Excellent deep ball accuracy completing 46.2 percent of his deep throws.

WEAKNESSES

 Inconsistent delivery base causes some throws to sail. Has instances where he short strides and is forced to muscle it to his target. Will float some throws on seams and dig routes. Will have to be mindful to drive the ball on pro level to avoid the ballhawks who are lurking at safety. Has to prove he has enough arm to challenge the same tight windows he did in college. Ball handling a little sluggish in wide receiver screens, hitches and most RPOs (run, pass option). Wants to play hero-ball at times. Needs to learn when to air-mail throw and move to next play rather than trying to get too cute with sideline throws. Can improve overall touch.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Round 3-4

SOURCES TELL US

 "I like him. He made me a believer when I watched him against Clemson. I do want to see him throw live and get a feel for how the ball comes out. I never saw him in person and you can't get a feel for that stuff on tape." - NFC Director of Personnel

NFL COMPARISON

 Kirk Cousins

BOTTOM LINE

 Peterman's experience in a pro-style passing attack gives him a head start headed into the league. His physical attributes are just average, but his accuracy, composure and anticipation are what sets him apart from some of the more physically gifted quarterbacks in this year's draft. Peterman's tape is sure to catch the eye of at least a few teams in need of a quarterback and he should come off the board by day two with a chance to become a solid starting quarterback in the future.

[Foxx]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The guys who throw hardest aren't all the greatest QBs. It's a mixed bag. You've got Stafford and Rodgers and Newton, but there are also the Cutlers, Bortles, and Griffin IIIs with huge arms who can't play QB. The arm strength argument is a red herring.

exactly.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

 

But taking the velocity numbers from the combine and breaking them down into such detail is useless. 

 

ESPN or NFL NET brought Mahomes on live tv and had him throw against David Carr in a velocity test. He won. I think he did once again hit 60 mph but the ball went sailing over his target by about ten yards. It certainly wasn't his normal delivery.

 

I think the velocity test at the combine is pretty sloppy. 

 

 

 

Carr is a great example of a passer with late life on his throws.   Sticks like a dart.

 

I don't know Carr's ball velo but I know from watching him that he has a visibly stronger arm than Nay Pete.

  

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

And the film is where the arm strength issue was identified.   Here's what the NFL.com scouting report said.  Notice that all of the negatives are about his ability to deliver the ball with pace.  Notice also all the positives.   I'm anxious to see him play:

 

STRENGTHS

 Smooth, quick set-up in pocket. Grips the ball with big, 10-inch hands. Poised in pocket and takes the hit to deliver a completion. Will set-up, slide and then re-set before making his throw. Can cut it loose from off-balance angles from bootleg or play-action if he sees a winning option break open early. Full field reader. Works all the way through his progressions. Shoots glances at safeties to keep them in check. Strong natural accuracy. Able to throw receivers open and lead them away from danger. Can pinpoint passes to moving targets in his intermediate work. Has enough arm to work field side, intermediate throws. Great vision. Sees passing windows before they develop. Throws with outstanding timing and anticipation. Can put the ball on receivers' hands as soon as they come out of a break if coverage dictates it. Utilizes accuracy and anticipation to challenge windows on all three levels. Won at Clemson hanging five touchdown passes on their talented stop unit. Good escapability and can extend drives with his legs. Excellent deep ball accuracy completing 46.2 percent of his deep throws.

WEAKNESSES

 Inconsistent delivery base causes some throws to sail. Has instances where he short strides and is forced to muscle it to his target. Will float some throws on seams and dig routes. Will have to be mindful to drive the ball on pro level to avoid the ballhawks who are lurking at safety. Has to prove he has enough arm to challenge the same tight windows he did in college. Ball handling a little sluggish in wide receiver screens, hitches and most RPOs (run, pass option). Wants to play hero-ball at times. Needs to learn when to air-mail throw and move to next play rather than trying to get too cute with sideline throws. Can improve overall touch.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Round 3-4

SOURCES TELL US

 "I like him. He made me a believer when I watched him against Clemson. I do want to see him throw live and get a feel for how the ball comes out. I never saw him in person and you can't get a feel for that stuff on tape." - NFC Director of Personnel

NFL COMPARISON

 Kirk Cousins

BOTTOM LINE

 Peterman's experience in a pro-style passing attack gives him a head start headed into the league. His physical attributes are just average, but his accuracy, composure and anticipation are what sets him apart from some of the more physically gifted quarterbacks in this year's draft. Peterman's tape is sure to catch the eye of at least a few teams in need of a quarterback and he should come off the board by day two with a chance to become a solid starting quarterback in the future.

 

Yep

 

he seems to float some throws because of inconsistencies in his base during delivery 

 

But he has some really good attributes as well

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

I think it's more about how quickly balls get to their destination that the actual distance.  Less time in the air, less time for defenders to react...

 

I'm wondering, though, how much ball velocity at release matters in a practical sense.

 

The difference between a velocity of 45, 50, and 55 mph is 22,24.4, or 26.9 yds/s.  This means on a 20 yard throw, a differene between 0.74,0.81, and 0.91 seconds from the QB's hand to the WR.  I'm going to bet that difference of less than 2/10 of a second is going to be dwarfed by differences in how long it takes a WR to run the route in different field conditions or against different defenders, how long it takes the QB to make a decision, and how long his windup takes.

 

Maybe it matters.  Or maybe it doesn't

 

 

[BadLandsMeanie]

Nice find with the stats there Shaw.

 

 

 

Memory lane:

 

YEAR: 2010

Levi Brown, Troy 56

 

2010 My boy Levi Brown was number 1!

 

 

Levi was robbed I tell ya!

[JM2009]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

arm strength matters as much as Tyrods passer rating is that it? 

 

you'll have to excuse me if i totally dismiss your assumptions when it comes to quarterback play. you were so wrong for 2 and one half years, it's not funny. you won't own it though because thats just how you roll.

lol from the guy who won't admit that Whaley was a bad GM. From the guy who claimed EJ would be starting. Peterman may do ok, he may not. Many are unsure, because we have no idea until he takes his first NFL snap in a meaningful NFL game. TT did compile a 20-18 record for an average at best team.He's been one of the better stories in the drought. Shaw usually puts up some good posting that is unbiased and makes some sound points. And he's a polite poster more often then not.

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

 

But taking the velocity numbers from the combine and breaking them down into such detail is useless. 

 

ESPN or NFL NET brought Mahomes on live tv and had him throw against David Carr in a velocity test. He won. I think he did once again hit 60 mph but the ball went sailing over his target by about ten yards. It certainly wasn't his normal delivery.

 

I think the velocity test at the combine is pretty sloppy. 

 

The test may be sloppy, but the concept isn't.   We all understand it.   The guy who can throw with great velocity has an advantage on many throws.   

 

The scouts said his arm is a concern.   The combine tests seem to verify it, sloppy or not.   

 

Recall that all my OP said is that I think arm strength may be a problem with him.   I think it's a fair comment, and I think the combine numbers, even if not perfect, suggest that he is coming into the league with less ability to deliver the ball with zip than most young QBs.   

[hemma]

There were quite a few times when the ball should have left Taylor's hand, but didn't.

 

As long as Peterman doesn't have too many of those 0 velocity moments, I think he'll be ok.

[Bad Things Man]

His arm strength jumped out to me on this throw to Benjamin. 

 

It doesn't appear to be an issue.

[BadLandsMeanie]

21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

It means that for a guy who can throw 60 mph, when' he's throwing the ball 30 yards, the ball takes one second from his hand to the receiver's hands.   For a guy who throws the ball 50 miles per hour, it takes the ball 1.2 seconds to get there.   That means that the guy who's throwing 50 has to release the ball two tenths of a second earlier than the the guy with the better arm.  That means the guy with the weaker arm has to DECIDE TO THROW two tenths of second earlier.    That means the guy with the weaker arm has two tenths of second less to see whether a linebacker is dropping into coverage, a safety is closing, whatever.   That's a huge difference.   

 

 

Yes and no. What you say is true but guys don't want to catch a ball that is going 60 miles an hour. So this really only applies on the long ball as in your example, when it has had time to slow down some.

 

And to be a pain  there is also the arc of the ball to be considered and the calculations of wind resistance and deceleration on a 60 mph versus a 50 mph one. I have no idea if it is different, but it could require adjustments to your calculations there!

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm wondering, though, how much ball velocity at release matters in a practical sense.

 

The difference between a velocity of 45, 50, and 55 mph is 22,24.4, or 26.9 yds/s.  This means on a 20 yard throw, a differene between 0.74,0.81, and 0.91 seconds from the QB's hand to the WR.  I'm going to bet that difference of less than 2/10 of a second is going to be dwarfed by differences in how long it takes a WR to run the route in different field conditions or against different defenders, how long it takes the QB to make a decision, and how long his windup takes.

 

Maybe it matters.  Or maybe it doesn't

You came up with the same numbers I did.   Difference between 45 mph and 55 is about .17 seconds .   Now recall that on average, QBs deliver the ball about 2.5 seconds after snap.   So that means if you're at 55 and I'm at 45, you're deciding to throw the ball about 2.5 seconds after the snap, but for me to get the ball there at the same time I have to decide about 2.3 seconds after the snap.   In other words, I have to decide nearly 10% faster than you did to get the ball to the same place at the same time.   

 

It's the exact same thing as bat speed in baseball.   If my bat speed is 10% faster than yours, it means I can wait a little longer than you can before I decide to swing.  That gives me a little more time to judge spin, speed and location.   

 

Again, I'm not saying Peterman is doomed because of his arm speed.  I am saying it's likely to be a factor that limits his success, and it's something I'm sure he'll work on.  

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, Bad Things Man said:

His arm strength jumped out to me on this throw to Benjamin. 

 

It doesn't appear to be an issue.

 

 

That was actually a prime example of late death on his throw.

 

That ball had a late tail on it...........it was thrown well in advance to spot but notice that Benjamin adjusts downward at the last second. 

 

The TV angle was closer and showed the tail finish.

 

 

[That's No Moon]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's very simple.   60 miles per hour is 88 feet per second.   50 miles per hour is about 73 feet per second.   So think about what that means.

 

It means that for a guy who can throw 60 mph, when' he's throwing the ball 30 yards, the ball takes one second from his hand to the receiver's hands.   For a guy who throws the ball 50 miles per hour, it takes the ball 1.2 seconds to get there.   That means that the guy who's throwing 50 has to release the ball two tenths of a second earlier than the the guy with the better arm.  That means the guy with the weaker arm has to DECIDE TO THROW two tenths of second earlier.    That means the guy with the weaker arm has two tenths of second less to see whether a linebacker is dropping into coverage, a safety is closing, whatever.   That's a huge difference.   

While that is true you also need to understand that it's only relevant if the QBs in question make decisions at the same pace.  Often a stronger armed QB will hold the ball longer or throw the ball into a smaller place because they grew up being able to do so while the player with the lesser arm had to learn to anticipate the throw because they couldn't just stick it in there.  When you have a player with a strong arm AND a quick mind you have a HoF player.  With just the strong arm you have JaMarcus Russell or Jay Cutler.  With just the decision making you have Ty Detmer.  You need an alchemist's combination of both.  I don't know whether Peterman has that or not. 

 

I'm pretty sure I know that Taylor doesn't.  At least not given the offense he was asked to run this season.  Taylor is an amazing athlete but anticipatory throws have never been his forte and he has said as much himself.  His propensity to protect the ball (good) and his reticence to throw a ball unless he can physically see the player open (bad) makes your passing game limited. 

 

Also, not to quibble about small parts of time, but aerodynamic drag is not a constant.  The football traveling at 60MPH experiences more frictional drag than a ball traveling at 50MPH

[CuddyDark]

40 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Interesting comments.  Thanks.  Particularly interesting that Peterman's number was corrected to 53.   No one gave a link, but I'll take it. 

 

To say arm strength doesn't matter is just nonsense.   It absolutely matters.   It matters on deep balls, because the guys with weaker arms have to use their bodies more to get the ball there on time, and more body motion generally affects accuracy negatively.   It also matters on the shorter line drive throws for the same reason.  

 

Pennington would have been an NFL star if he had arm strength.  He was dealy accurate, and he was smart, but defenses knew he wasn't going to hurt them deep, and limited his effectiveness.  

 

Interesting comments from several of you about guys improving their arm strengthj with, I suppose, coaching, training and practice. 

 

Finally, ball velocity IS what it's all about.   The higher the initial velocity, the faster the ball gets there and the longer it will go.   It's basic physics.    If I throw it 10% faster than you, the ball is going to go 10% farther; if we're throwing the same distance, mine will get there 10% faster.  

I don't have a link to the corrected article but if you look in the BIO it says, " Ball velocity 53 mph." http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/player/30576/ they corrected him to 53 just after the combine.

 

Also love the Pennington comments. If Peterman is anything near a healthy Pennington we have ourselves a steal. Pennington was good before shoulder injury. I would love that. Second window throws. Timing routes. It all makes the offense better.

[BuffaloBill]

The only stat that will matter is W-L

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Yes and no. What you say is true but guys don't want to catch a ball that is going 60 miles an hour. So this really only applies on the long ball as in your example, when it has had time to slow down some.

 

And to be a pain  there is also the arc of the ball to be considered and the calculations of wind resistance and deceleration on a 60 mph versus a 50 mph one. I have no idea if it is different, but it could require adjustments to your calculations there!

You may be right about short balls over the middle, but I don't think you're right about 10 yard out patterns.   They throw those with as much velocity as possible. 

 

As for the arc of the ball, you're actually wrong about that.   Wind resistance slows down all ball proportionately, so, the ball that is 10% faster coming out is slower, but still 10% faster than the ball that was slow coming out.   In fact, it's worse that.  The guy with the best velocity can throw with the lowest arc, so the ball is in the air for a shorter period of time, which means it's LESS affected by wind resistance than the ball that has a lot of arc.   

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

You came up with the same numbers I did.   Difference between 45 mph and 55 is about .17 seconds .   Now recall that on average, QBs deliver the ball about 2.5 seconds after snap.   So that means if you're at 55 and I'm at 45, you're deciding to throw the ball about 2.5 seconds after the snap, but for me to get the ball there at the same time I have to decide about 2.3 seconds after the snap.   In other words, I have to decide nearly 10% faster than you did to get the ball to the same place at the same time.   

 

It's the exact same thing as bat speed in baseball.   If my bat speed is 10% faster than yours, it means I can wait a little longer than you can before I decide to swing.  That gives me a little more time to judge spin, speed and location.   

 

Again, I'm not saying Peterman is doomed because of his arm speed.  I am saying it's likely to be a factor that limits his success, and it's something I'm sure he'll work on.  

 

 

I think you're missing my point.  Phrased as if arm strength is the only variable, it sounds as though it could be a serious deal.  But it's far from the only variable!
Don't you think a different receiver is going to take more than 0.2 s different to get to the same place in his route depending upon the field condition, the cleats he's wearing, whether and how hard he's jammed at the line, exactly how he runs the route etc etc?

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that these things require more than 0.2 s adjustment on the part of the QB