Peterman Arm Strength

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Speed matters, but worth remembering that other factors affect how little/much time you have to throw. For example, speed of decision-making and speed of release. I'd argue that decision-making speed is the most important of the three. Peterman appears to be very good at that, though it's very early days.

I agree that decision making is the most critical factor.  And speed of release is probably second.  But when those are equal in 2 qbs, arm strength limits the guy with the weaker arm.  And speed of release is affected by arm strength.  The guy with the weak arm needs more of a wind up to zip the ball, and the wind up takes time.  

 

From what we've seen it looks like Peterman is excellent on the decision making end and that's what's encouraging. 

11 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

I really want to see Peterman play because I want to see if the whole arm strength thing is overblown.....

 

If your accurate....IT DONT MATTER the only concern is not being able to make certain throws where the ball hangs.....and you simply dont make those throws

Don't you see that if the defense knows you can't and won't make certain throws the defense has an advantage that they don't have against better qbs?

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Theshallowcross said:

 

Do you not understand what the word outlier means? It's also entirely too early to say that Watson or Prescott are outliers. Watson especially. Prescott has a pretty great situation he is in. A top offensive line (the Bills still have a crap OL) and a top running game. Without his LT and his star RB last week, he looked horrendous. 

 

The data is there for everyone to see. Take what you want from it. Peterman being successful would be an absolute long shot. But that's ok because we have the ammunition to move up and draft Josh Rosen. 

 

 

You also didn’t mention that a bunch of QBs didn’t have any ball velocity measurements recorded. You’re throwing out Watson and Prescott because they don’t fit your narrative. Ball velocity is important but you can easily make up for it with quick decision making. Like you said there might be a 3 ft difference,

so if Peterman is 0.5 seconds faster than a QB with a 5 mph higher velocity doesn’t that make up the difference?

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree that decision making is the most critical factor.  And speed of release is probably second.  But when those are equal in 2 qbs, arm strength limits the guy with the weaker arm.  And speed of release is affected by arm strength.  The guy with the weak arm needs more of a wind up to zip the ball, and the wind up takes time.  

 

From what we've seen it looks like Peterman is excellent on the decision making end and that's what's encouraging. 

Don't you see that if the defense knows you can't and won't make certain throws the defense has an advantage that they don't have against better qbs?

Shaw...with all due respect we are seeing it.......because that is what they are doing with Tyrod.

 

Accuracy is an important thing to me......the one thing that I simply could not ignore at the end is the ball was not coming out on time with TT......now...I love Tyrod he has a lot of things that other qbs cant do but they have nothing do with throwing the ball.........

 

They have biult a offense that a 3 step and fire accurate qb can actually take advantage of.....we wont see a lot of deep throws but dont have the horses for it anyway.....and god forbid we actually make teams pay for stacking against the run

[BadLandsMeanie]

1 hour ago, Theshallowcross said:

 

It's not my metric but I definitely believe in the data. That 2 MPH slower velocity equates to 3 feet traveled on a 20 yard throw. Which is a huge passing window in the NFL. It's the difference between a completion and a turnover from an NFL level corner. 

 

The data shows very clearly that sub 55 velocity is a deathknell for quarterback prospects. 

I figure this is a stastical anomoly and that 55 is not a magic number.

 

But, if it is a magic number it probably isn't magic for the reason you say.

 

Because look at the numbers in another way.

 

53 miles per hour peterman speed is 77 feet per second.

 

So it travels 7.7 feet in one tenth of a second, and travels 3 feet in 38 hundredths of a second.

 

The NFL game is fast but a ball arriving 38 hundredths of a second  later can not possibly be a deal breaker.

 

 

Edited November 19, 2017 by BadLandsMeanie

[Theshallowcross]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You also didn’t mention that a bunch of QBs didn’t have any ball velocity measurements recorded. You’re throwing out Watson and Prescott because they don’t fit your narrative. Ball velocity is important but you can easily make up for it with quick decision making. Like you said there might be a 3 ft difference,

so if Peterman is 0.5 seconds faster than a QB with a 5 mph higher velocity doesn’t that make up the difference?

 

You're more than welcome to take the underdog in the face of the data side of the argument and I hope that you're right. That would mean that we could take the 5 picks that we have in the first 3 rounds and add young talent to a middling roster as opposed to packaging all those picks for a QB. 

 

It's not my narrative so chill out. It's pure unbiased data. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You also didn’t mention that a bunch of QBs didn’t have any ball velocity measurements recorded. You’re throwing out Watson and Prescott because they don’t fit your narrative. Ball velocity is important but you can easily make up for it with quick decision making. Like you said there might be a 3 ft difference,

so if Peterman is 0.5 seconds faster than a QB with a 5 mph higher velocity doesn’t that make up the difference?

It makes up 12 times the difference

[Real McClappy]

49 minutes ago, Luka said:

The only thing that matters is your ability to read defenses and anticipate throws. How many "physically gifted" QBs have we seen come and go in the league and never amount to anything? People always think they are going to create some metric or find some statistic that's going to prove this or that about a guy. It's NEVER going to happen. Football has been around for more than 100 years and no one has come up with it yet.

Accuracy and what you are saying are more important hands down than strength IMO.

If this was baseball would people rather have a pitcher that can throw 105MPH ball with zero control or accuracy, or a pitcher that can throw 90MPH with superior control/accuracy anywhere inside or outside the strike zone? It's very, very similar.

[Theshallowcross]

1 minute ago, Real McCoy said:

Accuracy and what you are saying are more important hands down than strength IMO.

If this was baseball would people rather have a pitcher that can throw 105MPH ball with zero control or accuracy, or a pitcher that can throw 90MPH with superior control/accuracy anywhere inside or outside the strike zone? It's very, very similar.

 

Velocity and arm strength are not one in the same. I just want to point that out. 

[Real McClappy]

20 minutes ago, Theshallowcross said:

 

Velocity and arm strength are not one in the same. I just want to point that out. 

They go hand and hand. Mechanics can be adjusted to improve velocity but the most important factor to velocity starts with arm strength.

Regardless, arm strength/velocity is not nearly the end all factor for a good QB --> a Smart QB with Accuracy  and Anticipation outweighs all and should be the measuring stick I would want our QB scouts using. 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1587707-the-most-important-traits-to-scout-for-nfl-qb-draft-prospects

 

Edited November 19, 2017 by Real McCoy

[Doc]

20 minutes ago, Theshallowcross said:

 

You're more than welcome to take the underdog in the face of the data side of the argument and I hope that you're right. That would mean that we could take the 5 picks that we have in the first 3 rounds and add young talent to a middling roster as opposed to packaging all those picks for a QB. 

 

It's not my narrative so chill out. It's pure unbiased data. 

 

Well, it's data.  You'd think that the guys with higher BV would be the best QB's because they can get the ball there faster.  But apparently guys with 55-56 BV make more Pro Bowls.

[Theshallowcross]

9 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

They go hand and hand.

Regardless, arm strength/velocity is not nearly the end all factor for a good QB --> a Smart QB with Accuracy  and Anticipation outweighs all and should be the measuring stick I would want our QB scouts using. 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1587707-the-most-important-traits-to-scout-for-nfl-qb-draft-prospects

 

 

7 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Well, it's data.  You'd think that the guys with higher BV would be the best QB's because they can get the ball there faster.  But apparently guys with 55-56 BV make more Pro Bowls.

 

Well there are definitely other factors to take into account. I was NOT trying to imply that QB velocity is the end all be all. What I am saying is that the data shows clearly that any sub 55 passer hasn't had long term success. 

 

Like I said before, Taylor was a sub 55 velocity passer and he is now on the bench. This isn't to take shots at Peterman. I posted the data. The data shows that it isn't likely for him to be successful long term just as Taylor wasn't successful long-term. The fact that he was ALSO a 5th round pick doesn't bode well for him either. When you pair these things together it points to the Bills drafting a QB high in next Aprils draft. 

Edited November 19, 2017 by Theshallowcross

[CuddyDark]

http://profootballspot.com/nfl-combine-velocity-numbers-creates-arm-strength-concerns-deshaun-watson/

 

http://gbnreport.com/qb-prospect-throwing-velocity-2017/

 

http://houston.cbslocal.com/2017/04/27/hammond-texans-trade-draft-deshaun-watson-int-velocity-arm-strength-watch-film/

 

https://www.collegefootballmetrics.com/members/2017-qb-prospect-throwing-speeds-mph/

 

His arm is plenty good. I believe his issue for teams is that he throws a duck sometimes. His RPM is probably more an issue than his MPH.

 

[HappyDays]

36 minutes ago, Theshallowcross said:

 

 

Well there are definitely other factors to take into account. I was NOT trying to imply that QB velocity is the end all be all. What I am saying is that the data shows clearly that any sub 55 passer hasn't had long term success. 

 

Like I said before, Taylor was a sub 55 velocity passer and he is now on the bench. This isn't to take shots at Peterman. I posted the data. The data shows that it isn't likely for him to be successful long term just as Taylor wasn't successful long-term. The fact that he was ALSO a 5th round pick doesn't bode well for him either. When you pair these things together it points to the Bills drafting a QB high in next Aprils draft. 

 

Do you think Tyrod’s ball velocity has anything to do with why he’s now on the bench? And no, past data with a small sample size doesn’t imply anything about the future.

[Wayne Arnold]

I'm concerned about his arm strength but check out this bullet to his receiver for the 60 yard touchdown.

 

 

[Theshallowcross]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Do you think Tyrod’s ball velocity has anything to do with why he’s now on the bench? And no, past data with a small sample size doesn’t imply anything about the future.

 

Yes. Actually I do believe velocity is a reason Taylor is on the bench. His inability to make throws into tight windows because of his velocity made him timid and risk averse. 

 

Small sample size is 6 games or 16 games not 9 years of data. 

[starrymessenger]

1 minute ago, Theshallowcross said:

 

Yes. Actually I do believe velocity is a reason Taylor is on the bench. His inability to make throws into tight windows because of his velocity made him timid and risk averse. 

 

Small sample size is 6 games or 16 games not 9 years of data. 

 

JMO but I think accuracy (and everything that contributes to it) has much more to do with it in Tyrod's case. Thats what (rightly) makes him risk averse.

Y'know I like Rosen and Darnold too, but I seriously doubt we get to draft either one of those guys.

[Theshallowcross]

With 5 interceptions in the 1st half (the most all time), I just want to say that "The data is the data" and once again is correct.