What's wrong with this team? And how can it be fixed?

[LA Grant]

Okay, any fears about this being 2011 part II are pretty valid at this point. That was the old gang: Buddy, Chan, Fitz, CJ Spiller, Dareus's rookie year. Team started 5-2, lost to the Jets, ended 6-10. 

 

That doesn't seem like even an implausible end point for the Bills after today. It's hard to imagine the 2017 team going on a run of wins when they're going up against Chiefs in KC, Pats twice, Chargers in LA, Colts, Dolphins twice. I don't love our odds in any of those after today.

 

What's wrong with this team?

 

1. We can't stop the run

2. We can't pressure the QB

3. We can't establish the run

4. We can't establish the pass

 

Oh, good, is that all? If you walked into the season blind to everything before Week 8 and you watched the Bills the last two weeks there's no way you'd guess this team would somehow have a winning record.

 

5-2 looks like smoke and mirrors now. We were getting a huge amount of opportunities with turnovers and shorter fields. The offense had enough moments to put up points, but was never consistent in either the run or the pass. But the defense was getting turnovers, and even when they weren't, they were keeping teams to 3 points at most with an effective bend-but-dont-break zone scheme. 

 

The defense in the last several weeks has been exposed, I think. They are also tacking noticeably worse, and I'm not sure why or what happened. I haven't gone back to rewatch or anything but my perception was that the tackling in the first few weeks was CONSIDERABLY more improved from sloppy Rex defenses. But the last few weeks have looked as sloppy or worse than last year and the year before. There are too many different explanations for how or why the tackling has tanked, but either way, it's as bad as we've seen in years past. It's just so Billsy at this point. I'm glad we don't have Jay Ajayi twice in December, but you still are going to have to sit through Kareem Hunt slice this defense to shreds. Mike Gillislee is going to have a monster month if the Bills keep playing like they did today. Oh and watch Gilmore have the best game of his life just in time to eliminate us from the playoffs. Ugh.

 

All of the great potential gut-punches you could've imagined and then new fresh hells you could have never thought of -- they're coming in the last couple months here, it feels like. The Bills are exceptionally talented at giving you juuuuuust enough hope to get you hooked before s#itting themselves at the dinner table. If the Browns are the Factory of Sadness, then Buffalo is the Gastropub of Heartbreak (not so many factories, downtown is nice tho).

 

Oh and just think of all the ways for it to still get worse. 

 

Marcell Dareus turns it on, Jags and Saint Doug make wild card. Our 6th round pick gets suspended, doesn't make the team.

Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods both catch TDs and win a playoff game

Gilly and Gilmore go to the Super Bowl; Chris Hogan is able to show them around

The picks we received from the Chiefs and Rams are now both at the bottom of the round.

SAME OLD BILLS

 

How can it be fixed?

 

1. The team needs more young talent -- this is an old roster and woefully thin in several areas

2. The scheme and the players need to be a good fit

3. They need to play better

 

The third thing is obvious, and the first thing isn't possible until April, so let's focus on the second aspect. Once again, the Buffalo Bills have a coaching scheme that does not match the players skillset. We're good on defense -- we're thin on youthful talent up front, but schematically, it's a fit for the skillsets. On offense, we have insisted on no identity despite the player skillets being glaringly obvious.

 

Tyrod and McCoy and now Benjamin, maybe Clay -- these are your playmakers. Feature them. Target them. Find ways to get them into space. The Bills have made that seem like the hardest thing in the world to do, but it doesn't need to be.

 

This is becoming a refrain and I've said this a thousand times, but it bears repeating -- the Bills should be running the Texans/Chiefs style of offense. The fact that we're calling plays where Tyrod even can checkdown to a back behind the line of scrimmage -- that shouldn't even be in the playbook, much less the script for the opening drive.

 

Read option. A moving pocket as soon as the ball is snapped. Tyrod is a threat to run on every single play. McCoy or Clay in middle distance for checkdown -- but ahead of the line of scrimmage for goodness sake. Benjamin and Thompson and Zay are deep.

Why not? Why couldn't this be the college style offense that has worked so well for Alex Smith and Deshaun Watson? Why can't they be running out of shotgun 90% of the time? Shady has always been excellent at running out of the shotgun. He excels in open space. 

 

Why is it so hard? Why instead are we seeing so much Mike Tolbert? Why is Tyrod standing in the pocket more than rolling out? Why are we not emphasizing Tyrod's two best attributes -- his run, and his deep throws? Spread the field, for gods sake! This seems like a team that should have a small playbook, each play has some option element built into it, and they run it fast and no-huddle. What's Chan Gailey up to these days? 

 

This seems like a glaringly obvious way to spread defenses out, but in the 3 offensive coordinators that Tyrod has had, all 3 have emphasized a run-first offense and a conservative west coast passing game.

 

There's only so much you can do to your playbook when you're midway through the season,  so even if they were to fire Dennison tomorrow (I wouldn't mind), I don't know how much you can expect to change in that sense, but you could change the mindset and philosophy in some ways. 

 

As for the Draft -- I think it'd be foolish to try to trade up for a QB, and that's with how awful Tyrod looked today. I think they should still draft a QB, but I don't want them to sell the farm and say "this is the guy."  Continue to develop Tyrod and Peterman and whoever you draft. Tyrod had a horrible game and he has his limitations. But so does every other QB in the "second tier" middle class of the NFL.

 

On offense, I think our main weaknesses are:

 

—Pass blocking interior linemen

—Pass blocking outside linemen

—RB

—Speed WR

 

If we'd held onto Gillislee and Watkins, we'd only need linemen who can pass block. If the Bills were to hit on a RB in the draft and get a Leonard Fournette or Kareem Hunt, paired with McCoy, the Bills are a much more dangerous team. If Tyrod has a deep threat speedster like Marquise Goodwin (but healthy), he's a much more dangerous passer.  

 

Both D-Line and O-Line desperately need interior guys. They're relatively better on the outside linemen, both sides of the ball, but still lack a true elite talent at DE or LT/RT. 

 

tl;dr

 

The Bills are hopeless until they aren't.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, LA Grant said:

What's wrong with this team?

 

1. We can't stop the run

2. We can't pressure the QB

3. We can't establish the run

4. We can't establish the pass

 

Other than that the Bills are pretty good. 

[LA Grant]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Other than that the Bills are pretty good. 

 

Our 17+ year punting dynasty remains intact. ?

[PIZ]

Start Peterman the rest of the way.  Dump Tolbert and bring in Banyard and give him a shot.  Find some big bodied DT space eater that's not going to get blown off the line.  Find a competent OL coach.

[26CornerBlitz]

Start Peterman? The notion is comical.

[boyst]

there are several takeaways from what is going on when looking at the full picture.

 

some are hard to see and others aren't.  this is a great post that can hopefully help it be discussed; i as of yet have not fully soaked it in.

 

I don't think McCoy fits our template at what we need for a runner in this offense due to the personnel we have.  kamara and ingram today showed us what running backs can do.

 

the offensive line, elsewise, is the biggest issue.

 

we need to get rid of alexander, kyle wiliams and shaq lawson.  preston brown is a good football player, however.  lawson is just not a fit for this defense.  williams is done.  alexander was a 1 yr wonder in a system which coered up every one of his mistakes

[MAJBobby]

Nothing can fix this team going forward this year except better execution and that is because that is the roster McD and Beane built. 

 

After this year any Solution that does not start with a QB is laughable just look across the league and see what good QBs do for Running games, OLs etc etc 

Edited November 13, 2017 by MAJBobby

[LA Grant]

2 minutes ago, PIZ said:

Start Peterman the rest of the way.  Dump Tolbert and bring in Banyard and give him a shot.  Find some big bodied DT space eater that's not going to get blown off the line.  Find a competent OL coach.

 

No. Keep Tyrod. Keep Tolbert. Yes, give Banyard a shot. Yes, need new DTs. I think schematically it's more than just the OL, it's everything on offense.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, LA Grant said:

 

No. Keep Tyrod. Keep Tolbert. Yes, give Banyard a shot. Yes, need new DTs. I think schematically it's more than just the OL, it's everything on offense.

 

Taylor will and should start unless the postseason is out of reach. Banyard is gone.  DT needs a severe upgrade with size and talent. 

[LA Grant]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Taylor will and should start unless the postseason is out of reach. Banyard is gone.  DT needs a severe upgrade with size and talent. 

 

I agree.

6 minutes ago, Boyst62 said:

the offensive line, elsewise, is the biggest issue.

 

we need to get rid of alexander, kyle wiliams and shaq lawson.  preston brown is a good football player, however.  lawson is just not a fit for this defense.  williams is done.  alexander was a 1 yr wonder in a system which coered up every one of his mistakes

 

Yeah, both lines are in the worst shape. The LBs are second weakest of the three defensive groups, although I agree re: Preston, and I liked what we've seen from Matt Milano. 

 

Lorenzo, Kyle Williams, and Eric Wood all need upgrades and hopefully won't be starting next year if they are even on the team. Shaq hasn't done anything but he's young enough I think he could still figure it out. 

[Dr. K]

McDermott and Beane have destroyed the roster of this team, and nothing can be done until they get the players that fit their "system." 

 

Maybe something will get done once they draft and sign their own players, but I'm not convinced. They think they are the smartest guys in the room and the results are showing that they are not. 

 

 

[boyst]

4 minutes ago, LA Grant said:

 

I agree.

 

Yeah, both lines are in the worst shape. The LBs are second weakest of the three defensive groups, although I agree re: Preston, and I liked what we've seen from Matt Milano. 

 

Lorenzo, Kyle Williams, and Eric Wood all need upgrades and hopefully won't be starting next year if they are even on the team. Shaq hasn't done anything but he's young enough I think he could still figure it out. 

shaq, as i've said since day 1, is chris kelsey 2.

 

i never hated chris kelsey but we never had dt's that would pressure the qb.  if we could get dt's who would i'd be happy.  but lawson has been moving inside a little bit.

 

losing dareus - hate even mentioning him - did not affect us as much as people say.  mentally yes, short term definitely a bit of a hurt but overall i think we're as good as we were before.

[dulles]

7 minutes ago, LA Grant said:

 

I agree.

 

Yeah, both lines are in the worst shape. The LBs are second weakest of the three defensive groups, although I agree re: Preston, and I liked what we've seen from Matt Milano. 

 

Lorenzo, Kyle Williams, and Eric Wood all need upgrades and hopefully won't be starting next year if they are even on the team. Shaq hasn't done anything but he's young enough I think he could still figure it out. 

I agree we need upgrades, but I cannot agree about Preston at the Mike.  He was way out of position on many plays that Keuchly would have made.  I know that he is not Keuchly, but that is what we need at the mike.  We also need some beef up front.  We missed Dareus, even if he was a locker room cancer or didn't like the process. 
On the OL (or should we call it the LOL...) Mills was just abused again.  I think the whole right side needs to be replaced.

 

[Happy]

26 minutes ago, LA Grant said:

How can it be fixed?

 

1. The team needs more young talent -- this is an old roster and woefully thin in several areas

2. The scheme and the players need to be a good fit

3. They need to play better

 

I think #2.  Enough with the square peg in the round hole nonsense.  Modify the scheme to fit the player's strengths.

[dulles]

7 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

McDermott and Beane have destroyed the roster of this team, and nothing can be done until they get the players that fit their "system." 

 

Maybe something will get done once they draft and sign their own players, but I'm not convinced. They think they are the smartest guys in the room and the results are showing that they are not. 

 

 

I'm sure they will get a lot done with the draft and free agency...they have enough opportunities for sure.  Whether those opportunities pan out will be something to watch.  We don't know what Beane's performance will look like because we don't know how much influence he had in Car.

[Green Lightning]

A lack of talent. A lack of heart. No toughness and a really awful OC.

[LA Grant]

26 minutes ago, Boyst62 said:

shaq, as i've said since day 1, is chris kelsey 2.

 

i never hated chris kelsey but we never had dt's that would pressure the qb.  if we could get dt's who would i'd be happy.  but lawson has been moving inside a little bit.

 

losing dareus - hate even mentioning him - did not affect us as much as people say.  mentally yes, short term definitely a bit of a hurt but overall i think we're as good as we were before.

 

Kelsay comparison is interesting. I hadn't thought of that but I see it for sure. Throughout Kelsay's entire career I was never sure what he brought to the table exactly. It was always just like oh yeah, there's Kelsay. Every once in awhile he'd have a game with 3 sacks. But otherwise just constantly getting run over. Yeah I can see that being Shaq Lawson. 

 

Yeah with Dareus, I don't think... I mean obviously he wasn't much of a factor in the first half of the year when we were 5-2. I don't think he would be making much of a difference now. If players on defense are giving up because they're tired of seeing turnovers become 3-and-out on the next drive, with a sack or holding penalty taking you out of FG range, it's not like Marcell Dareus is going to be the one that rallies the guys with the inspiring half time speech. He'd be the first one out the door, like hey guys gotta take off early, got a thing, schedule conflict thing.

 

BUT at the same time, that trade still bugs me. Was his presence in the locker room so bad that waiting until the offseason wasn't the better option? I think that, and he's dogging it, and he's too expensive, so he's gone. But the Bills don't look like they are swimming with run-stopping talent on the D Line.

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, Boyst62 said:

there are several takeaways from what is going on when looking at the full picture.

 

some are hard to see and others aren't.  this is a great post that can hopefully help it be discussed; i as of yet have not fully soaked it in.

 

I don't think McCoy fits our template at what we need for a runner in this offense due to the personnel we have.  kamara and ingram today showed us what running backs can do.

 

the offensive line, elsewise, is the biggest issue.

 

we need to get rid of alexander, kyle wiliams and shaq lawson.  preston brown is a good football player, however.  lawson is just not a fit for this defense.  williams is done.  alexander was a 1 yr wonder in a system which coered up every one of his mistakes

Did you see how well he set the edge today? I mean, they never had to actually try to run anything wide of the tackles, but that edge, it was pristine.

[GreggTX]

1. Take a chance on another QB next year. Peterman can compete with a new addition, but no more mediocre vets at QB. Sign a heavyweight or draft a QB in the top 2 rounds and let him battle NP for the job.

2. Draft DL help and sign a solid vet DT. If Shaq is not producing in his 3rd year, try to unload him.

3. Draft an OT in rd 1 or 2.

4. Draft a RB to split time with McCoy. It worked for Thurman.

5. Sign or draft someone to compete with Gaines for his job.

6. Continue adding players with a strong will and solid work ethic.

7. Upgrade the 'speed' wideout role. Thompson is decent, but a full time starter on the outside with world class speed gives you the ability to stretch defenses.

 

Edited November 13, 2017 by GreggTX

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Sam Darnold