Is this the worst draft class of the decade?

[Laughing Coffin]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2743367-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-is-this-the-worst-draft-class-of-the-decade

 

good read and definitely agree about the QB class.  Is Rosen at 2 any better of a draft choice than mayfield at 20? It’s not even quantifiable if it is.

 

 

Hopes and dreams. That's what we sell in the NFLdraft industry. Every year a fresh crop of players comes up from college football, and every NFL fanbase has hopes it'll find the next Tom Brady waiting in the sixth round or that it'll earn the No. 1 pick in the draft and be able to draft the next Peyton Manning.

That's all well and good when there is a Peyton Manning (or even a Jameis Winston) in the draft class. This year? We should be selling caution and patience because this group has the potential to be the weakest I've scouted.

Does anyone else spend way too much time watching those shows where they fix and flip houses? If not, you're missing out, and you probably won't get the analogy I'm about to lay on you. But stick with me.

---

Every draft class is like that rundown house in a good neighborhood that was foreclosed on, but with the right vision and the right work it could be a steal and a potential cash cow. If draft classes are fixer-uppers, the 2018 class has mold in the walls and the basement leaks. But that doesn't mean the right person can't fix it up and make something awesome from it. You just need the right person evaluating what you've got and making the plan to fix it.

I usually look at the strength of a draft class in terms of tiers. What's there in the top-end talent, i.e. players who will be drafted in the top 10? This year's class is solid on that front but not great.

Two of the top five players in this class (Saquon Barkley, Quenton Nelson) play positions the NFL doesn't value. The quarterbacks—and as many as five or six could go in the first round—are a collection of question marks all likely to receive a grade lower than Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota on my final board. Even a once-promising left tackle class has been torn apart by struggling play from Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame) and Connor Williams (Texas).

 

After the top tier, I look at the meat of the class—players expected to be drafted 11-65. NFL teams are built on these picks, and a good draft will have considerable depth here. Last year, for example, I had 58 players graded as second-rounders compared to 20 first-rounders. There was good depth in 2017, and we're seeing it as players like Kareem Hunt, Pat Elflein, Reuben Foster, Marcus Williams, Marcus Maye and Evan Engram (based on where I graded them) make big impacts from the second tier.

The third tier is your middle-rounders. In a good draft you can find multiple starters here. This year? Yikes. The depth at wide receiver, offensive line, edge-rusher and cornerback is way down. That's following a year that was the deepest I've ever seen at running back, cornerback and safety.

The final tier is the late-rounders. This is where players who are an inch short, a step slow or have serious off-field issues go. This might be the depth of this class because of the number of players who are undersized, under the threshold for speed and underdeveloped as far as the quality of their character. And we're not even to the medical portion of the draft process that happens at the NFL Scouting Combine in late February.

I asked a handful of scouts and executives who've been around the league at least as long as me (2011 is when I started) if this year was better or worse than the infamous 2013 draft that saw Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel and Dion Jordan kick off the selection process. The consensus was that this year is better—we won't see offensive linemen comprise half of the top 10 picks—but that there were potential steals in the second tier of the 2013 class. One player personnel director said: "At least in 2013 we knew the players' strengths and weaknesses really well at this time and could slot them into a scheme. This year there are just so many unknowns in terms of fits right now."

 

Others are worried the supply-versus-demand model for quarterback acquisition means players like Derek Carr or Russell Wilson, who were second- and third-round picks, respectively, are now first-rounders. "You can't get caught ... waiting for a quarterback anymore," one longtime national scout told me. "If you even like a guy a little, he's going top-32 now."

What does this mean for teams like the Cleveland Browns, who likely will have two picks in the top seven selections and already own 12 picks overall? This isn't a bad year to trade down and amass more picks. The strength of this group isn't at the top based on evaluations done thus far. Said one area scout: "Would you rather have the No. 1 pick and spend it on Josh Rosen or the No. 20 pick and draft Baker Mayfield? You can't convince me one is better than the other right now."

 

That's the way I feel too. The difference between the No. 2 overall player in this class and the No. 20 overall player simply isn't that great. This is what I call a flat talent year because there aren't the high peaks and low valleys of talent in the first round. Or from the first round to the second and third rounds.

The 2018 draft isn't the worst in a decade, but based on my rankings and the conversations I've had with evaluators this week, it's definitely second to the 2013 group.

If you're putting a lot of faith in 2018 to turn around your franchise, you'd better hope the front office is equipped to find a diamond in the rough.

 

 

Edited November 11, 2017 by Laughing Coffin

[Bill from NYC]

I am by no means an expert but imo, there are no teams as good as Alabama and Clemson were in 2015 or 2016.  This also includes the current Tide and Tigers.

I don't know if the talent is more spread out or if there is less of it.

[Laughing Coffin]

Just now, Augie said:

I’m not positive, but there may be a rule against linking Bleacher Report stuff for some reason. Don’t be shocked if action is taken. I’m not sure it’s currently an issue (or why) but FYI. 

 

Good to know lol, I’ll copy and paste the contents of the article

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Laughing Coffin said:

 

Good to know lol, I’ll copy and paste the contents of the article

It may NOT be a thing, but....I guess we’ll find out. I could be wrong and maybe should have just stayed quiet. As for the premise of the article, it may take us a few years to know the truth!

[The Now Moment]

I honestly don't think we can judge a draft before the players have seen action on the field.  Who thought Tre White would be even half as good as he is as a rookie number one corner.  There are too many variables that make up a good player it's too hard to say who's going to be better than who.  We've seen the biggest talents lay eggs.  Take Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell...the list could go on and on.  But but but he was better than him coming out...it honestly doesn't matter.  If a player isn't going into a comfortable environment that doesn't make him do too much too quickly, he can develop but how many Cleveland or Buffalo QBs have been drafted with talentless offenses around them only to watch their careers plummet.  Brady Quinn and JP Losman say hi.  These crappy teams need to get a little talent before they get their QB or they could shorten the QBs career and limit his success in this league.  We've seen it time and again.  Keep adding talent to the offense and find a guy if Tyrod doesn't stay. 

[Laughing Coffin]

 

11 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

I honestly don't think we can judge a draft before the players have seen action on the field.  Who thought Tre White would be even half as good as he is as a rookie number one corner.  There are too many variables that make up a good player it's too hard to say who's going to be better than who.  We've seen the biggest talents lay eggs.  Take Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell...the list could go on and on.  But but but he was better than him coming out...it honestly doesn't matter.  If a player isn't going into a comfortable environment that doesn't make him do too much too quickly, he can develop but how many Cleveland or Buffalo QBs have been drafted with talentless offenses around them only to watch their careers plummet.  Brady Quinn and JP Losman say hi.  These crappy teams need to get a little talent before they get their QB or they could shorten the QBs career and limit his success in this league.  We've seen it time and again.  Keep adding talent to the offense and find a guy if Tyrod doesn't stay. 

 

I agree, but I found the QB part of the article interesting.  A lot of us had us pinned for using our acquired picks to move up and draft the top QB.  But are some of these guys that discernibly better than the others?  Watching Mayfield right now he's so love hate with me.  I can't get over his height, but wouldn't he be having issues in college with throwing lanes/batted down balls?  I'm so conflicted lol

[The Now Moment]

1 hour ago, Laughing Coffin said:

 

 

I agree, but I found the QB part of the article interesting.  A lot of us had us pinned for using our acquired picks to move up and draft the top QB.  But are some of these guys that discernibly better than the others?  Watching Mayfield right now he's so love hate with me.  I can't get over his height, but wouldn't he be having issues in college with throwing lanes/batted down balls?  I'm so conflicted lol

Completely agree.  Mayfield is a difficult prospect to scout.  He truly is a love hate prospect for me too.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

It's never as good or bad as it looks and this QB class is still better than last year. I would most definitely prefer Carson Wentz though.

[MAJBobby]

On 11/11/2017 at 6:11 PM, Laughing Coffin said:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2743367-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-is-this-the-worst-draft-class-of-the-decade

 

good read and definitely agree about the QB class.  Is Rosen at 2 any better of a draft choice than mayfield at 20? It’s not even quantifiable if it is.

 

 

Hopes and dreams. That's what we sell in the NFLdraft industry. Every year a fresh crop of players comes up from college football, and every NFL fanbase has hopes it'll find the next Tom Brady waiting in the sixth round or that it'll earn the No. 1 pick in the draft and be able to draft the next Peyton Manning.

That's all well and good when there is a Peyton Manning (or even a Jameis Winston) in the draft class. This year? We should be selling caution and patience because this group has the potential to be the weakest I've scouted.

Does anyone else spend way too much time watching those shows where they fix and flip houses? If not, you're missing out, and you probably won't get the analogy I'm about to lay on you. But stick with me.

---

Every draft class is like that rundown house in a good neighborhood that was foreclosed on, but with the right vision and the right work it could be a steal and a potential cash cow. If draft classes are fixer-uppers, the 2018 class has mold in the walls and the basement leaks. But that doesn't mean the right person can't fix it up and make something awesome from it. You just need the right person evaluating what you've got and making the plan to fix it.

I usually look at the strength of a draft class in terms of tiers. What's there in the top-end talent, i.e. players who will be drafted in the top 10? This year's class is solid on that front but not great.

Two of the top five players in this class (Saquon Barkley, Quenton Nelson) play positions the NFL doesn't value. The quarterbacks—and as many as five or six could go in the first round—are a collection of question marks all likely to receive a grade lower than Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota on my final board. Even a once-promising left tackle class has been torn apart by struggling play from Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame) and Connor Williams (Texas).

 

After the top tier, I look at the meat of the class—players expected to be drafted 11-65. NFL teams are built on these picks, and a good draft will have considerable depth here. Last year, for example, I had 58 players graded as second-rounders compared to 20 first-rounders. There was good depth in 2017, and we're seeing it as players like Kareem Hunt, Pat Elflein, Reuben Foster, Marcus Williams, Marcus Maye and Evan Engram (based on where I graded them) make big impacts from the second tier.

The third tier is your middle-rounders. In a good draft you can find multiple starters here. This year? Yikes. The depth at wide receiver, offensive line, edge-rusher and cornerback is way down. That's following a year that was the deepest I've ever seen at running back, cornerback and safety.

The final tier is the late-rounders. This is where players who are an inch short, a step slow or have serious off-field issues go. This might be the depth of this class because of the number of players who are undersized, under the threshold for speed and underdeveloped as far as the quality of their character. And we're not even to the medical portion of the draft process that happens at the NFL Scouting Combine in late February.

I asked a handful of scouts and executives who've been around the league at least as long as me (2011 is when I started) if this year was better or worse than the infamous 2013 draft that saw Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel and Dion Jordan kick off the selection process. The consensus was that this year is better—we won't see offensive linemen comprise half of the top 10 picks—but that there were potential steals in the second tier of the 2013 class. One player personnel director said: "At least in 2013 we knew the players' strengths and weaknesses really well at this time and could slot them into a scheme. This year there are just so many unknowns in terms of fits right now."

 

Others are worried the supply-versus-demand model for quarterback acquisition means players like Derek Carr or Russell Wilson, who were second- and third-round picks, respectively, are now first-rounders. "You can't get caught ... waiting for a quarterback anymore," one longtime national scout told me. "If you even like a guy a little, he's going top-32 now."

What does this mean for teams like the Cleveland Browns, who likely will have two picks in the top seven selections and already own 12 picks overall? This isn't a bad year to trade down and amass more picks. The strength of this group isn't at the top based on evaluations done thus far. Said one area scout: "Would you rather have the No. 1 pick and spend it on Josh Rosen or the No. 20 pick and draft Baker Mayfield? You can't convince me one is better than the other right now."

 

That's the way I feel too. The difference between the No. 2 overall player in this class and the No. 20 overall player simply isn't that great. This is what I call a flat talent year because there aren't the high peaks and low valleys of talent in the first round. Or from the first round to the second and third rounds.

The 2018 draft isn't the worst in a decade, but based on my rankings and the conversations I've had with evaluators this week, it's definitely second to the 2013 group.

If you're putting a lot of faith in 2018 to turn around your franchise, you'd better hope the front office is equipped to find a diamond in the rough.

 

 

 

Ahhhhh the yearly this draft class is horrible article. Happebs every year some scout or writer blasting a draft class. 

 

This is a very good to too end QB draft class with 6 that will go in the 1st round (if all declare)

 

Darnold

Rosen

Rudolph

Mayfield

Jackson

Allen 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Ahhhhh the yearly this draft class is horrible article. Happebs every year some scout or writer blasting a draft class. 

 

This is a very good to too end QB draft class with 6 that will go in the 1st round (if all declare)

 

Darnold

Rosen

Rudolph

Mayfield

Jackson

Allen 

Agree, this could be a great QB class. People have been talking about that for a while and if anyone watch Darnold and Rosen last night, or Lamar and Mayfield in the afternoon you can see the flashes of greatness. There were some throws and plays made yesterday that were just ridiculous.

[MAJBobby]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Agree, this could be a great QB class. People have been talking about that for a while and if anyone watch Darnold and Rosen last night, or Lamar and Mayfield in the afternoon you can see the flashes of greatness. There were some throws and plays made yesterday that were just ridiculous.

 

I agree heck even Falk might sneak in the 1st. Just get tired of the annual October and November bad draft class talk. Happens every year

[Dr. Who]

On 11/19/2017 at 2:59 PM, MAJBobby said:

 

I agree heck even Falk might sneak in the 1st. Just get tired of the annual October and November bad draft class talk. Happens every year

Sure, and every year about this time, folks start figuring Bills' wild card odds and wondering if we will finally get a qb in the next draft that can play.

[GunnerBill]

I think it is a really interesting question. 

 

Here are my broad views:

 

- good depth to the QB class but only one guy at the moment that I see as a top 10 type grade (Rosen and there are injury concerns there). I also don't see more than four 1st round grades - Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold and Rudolph .

- top end non QBs it is definitely stronger than 2013 but the strength of this first round will be heavily influenced by how many of the quality juniors declare. 

- haven't really got into depth of the draft beyond first couple of rounds. That is part of my Feb - March process but there are not too many sleepers I have scribbled down in my notebook as I have gone through the year. 

[JohnC]

On ‎11‎/‎19‎/‎2017 at 10:11 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

Agree, this could be a great QB class. People have been talking about that for a while and if anyone watch Darnold and Rosen last night, or Lamar and Mayfield in the afternoon you can see the flashes of greatness. There were some throws and plays made yesterday that were just ridiculous.

Because so many teams need qbs, including legacy teams such as the Giants and Steelers, there is a risk in not being aggressive in grabbing one of the top five. There will be teams drafting behind us who can leap ahead to procure one of the top prospects. The same scenario applies in the second or third round where you might be interested in a more developmental qb. 

 

I recently read an account where the Giant owner ordered the GM to put a lot of resources into scouting the qb position. Whether that story was true or not what is very apparent is that there is greater pressure now to be aggressive in securing a high end qb prospect. The Rams with Goff, the Eagles with Wentz, KC with Mahomes, Chicago with Trubinsky and Houston with Watson all demonstrate that if you have a conviction on a qb then you have to be proactive to get the job done. If you want an example on what not to do is to use the Cleveland model.They traded their picks and allowed the Eagles to get Wentz, now one of the best qb in the league. The Browns had the ability to draft Watson with their second first  round pick for a versatile safety. Is there any doubt that if they had a do-over they would do things differently? 

 

Assuming that Rosen and Arnold are not attainable I like Mayfield and Jackson a lot. Because this new regime has smartly and strategically accumulated picks the Bills should be in a good position to get a good qb prospect. Isn't a quarter century long enough to not have an authentic franchise qb taking the snaps? 

[Dkollidas]

I think they go for one of Allen or Rudolph. Beane has repeatedly talked about having a guy that stands tall in the pocket, and while not necesssrily meaning height alone, both are guys who prefer to work from inside the pocket.

 

Rosen & Darnold will go 1 & 2 (Cleveland and probably the Giants in a move similar to Chicago moving up for Trubisky). 

 

Buffalo either moves up and takes Allen ahead of the Broncos & Jets, or stays relatively put and grabs Rudolph.

 

Mayfield & Jackson go between Allen & Rudolph.

(my quick prediction is Mayfield to the Jets, Jackson to the Cardinals).

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

I think they go for one of Allen or Rudolph. Beane has repeatedly talked about having a guy that stands tall in the pocket, and while not necesssrily meaning height alone, both are guys who prefer to work from inside the pocket.

 

Rosen & Darnold will go 1 & 2 (Cleveland and probably the Giants in a move similar to Chicago moving up for Trubisky). 

 

Buffalo either moves up and takes Allen ahead of the Broncos & Jets, or stays relatively put and grabs Rudolph.

 

Mayfield & Jackson go between Allen & Rudolph.

(my quick prediction is Mayfield to the Jets, Jackson to the Cardinals).

 

Not sure Jackson is a fit for Arians.  Arians will want a pure pocket guy with a good arm.  I can see Rudolph being an Arians type.... maybe even Josh Allen if he thinks he can work that conundrum out (I am not sure that anyone can).  The Jets having had a better season than most expect could well be the team that tries to wait for a guy in round 2 and takes whoever has "slipped" there will be at least one.  

 

If Darnold doesn't come out then who is the 2nd QB off the board gets really, really interesting.  

[Mark Vader]

On 11/11/2017 at 3:19 PM, Bill from NYC said:

I am by no means an expert but imo, there are no teams as good as Alabama and Clemson were in 2015 or 2016.  This also includes the current Tide and Tigers.

I don't know if the talent is more spread out or if there is less of it.

Talent is always spread out. Just because certain teams are not as dominant as they were in the past doesn't mean that the talent has been depleted.

[GunnerBill]

On 11/11/2017 at 11:19 PM, Bill from NYC said:

I am by no means an expert but imo, there are no teams as good as Alabama and Clemson were in 2015 or 2016.  This also includes the current Tide and Tigers.

I don't know if the talent is more spread out or if there is less of it.

 

I do agree with this.  Or even as good as Ohio State has been most of the last 3 or 4 years.  Those 3 teams each year looked like teams that would have been justifiable National Champions.  This year finding 3 teams who look like bona fide CFP teams is tough.  

 

More spread out, yes..... slightly down on recent years, I think so.  But things do go in peaks and troughs.  There is no rule that talent levels are always basically the same. I think there are some very good juniors.  How many of those come out this year I don't know.    

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, Mark Vader said:

Talent is always spread out. Just because certain teams are not as dominant as they were in the past doesn't mean that the talent has been depleted.

I agree and I didn't say that the talent was depleted. That would be ridiculous. It just seems to me that there were tougher teams last year, and there did seem to be more talent. Some drafts are better than others. Nothing new here.

 

It's only my opinion but I think that last year's Washington team would also be the best in the NCAA this year.