Metrics on best 4th quater/OT QB play this season

[SaviorPeterman]

I did not see this posted anywhere but thought it was a very interesting metric worth studying. Yes Taylor isn't on here in terms of the best or worse, but the main reason I think it's important is looking ahead to some of the QB's we have yet to face that are on there including Brees, Rivers, Brady & Alex Smith.

 

In terms of the ones we've already faced, we've beat Ryan and Winston who are among the best. But we've lost to Newton and Dalton on the road who are among the worst and ironically both of them made plays against this defense in the 4th quarter to win the game despite their low ratings/metrics. Which is obviously concerning in itself but we all know this simply isn't a good road team this year.

 

 

[quinnearlysghost88]

what does it say about the stat that there is a 3-5 and a 1-7 QB in the top five?

Also--it should be noted that Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady have higher overall passer ratings than their 4th quarter ratings. 

[Jauronimo]

Very concerning.

[Marty McFly]

5 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

what does it say about the stat that there is a 3-5 and a 1-7 QB in the top five?

Also--it should be noted that Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady have higher overall passer ratings than their 4th quarter ratings. 

 

That's a damming stat. Doesn't even makes sense.

[section122]

18 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

what does it say about the stat that there is a 3-5 and a 1-7 QB in the top five?

Also--it should be noted that Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady have higher overall passer ratings than their 4th quarter ratings. 

 

The dreaded garbage time?  Where teams are playing soft which allows qb to complete a lot of passes for a lot of yards?

 

This is a stat that needs a lot of context to mean anything imo.

[quinnearlysghost88]

53 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

The dreaded garbage time?  Where teams are playing soft which allows qb to complete a lot of passes for a lot of yards?

 

This is a stat that needs a lot of context to mean anything imo.

A much more fun stat is football outsider's ALEX stat, which measures, on average, how many yards +/- a QB throws a pass beyond the first down line on 3rd downs.

[SaviorPeterman]

1 hour ago, section122 said:

 

The dreaded garbage time?  Where teams are playing soft which allows qb to complete a lot of passes for a lot of yards?

 

This is a stat that needs a lot of context to mean anything imo.

 

For most of these teams and QB's these aren't garbage time type of numbers though. It's more indicative of clutch play in terms of leading their teams to wins or drives to preserve a lead.

 

However a few of these names like Eli Manning and Winston are obviously misleading since their teams are terrible and they have posted a lot of big numbers in garbage time.

[Scott7975]

FWIW Taylor is probably that 11th spot as his rating is 91.4 in the 4th quarter.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Here's your top 20, which includes a couple guys who didn't meet the minimum number of attempts. http://scores.nbcsports.msnbc.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Passing&range=NFL&rank=110

List if you can't follow the link:

1) Russ Wilson, 135.2

2) Aaron Rodgers, 119.3

3) Kevin Hogan, 117.8

4) Drew Brees, 108.2

5) Phil Privers, 103.4

6) Eli Manning, 102.4

7) Alex Smith, 99.8

8) Tom Brady, 99.7

9) Marcus Mariota, 99.0

10) Deshaun Watson, 97.5

11) Matt Ryan, 97.2

12) Brian Hoyer, 94.9

13) Jameis Winston, 92.0

14) Matt Stafford, 91.7

15) Tyrod Taylor, 91.4

16) Jay Cutler, 90.6

17) Carson Wentz, 88.1

18) Blake Bortles, 87.2

19) Derek Carr, 86.2

20) Dak Prescott, 86.0

[section122]

31 minutes ago, SaviorPeterman said:

 

For most of these teams and QB's these aren't garbage time type of numbers though. It's more indicative of clutch play in terms of leading their teams to wins or drives to preserve a lead.

 

However a few of these names like Eli Manning and Winston are obviously misleading since their teams are terrible and they have posted a lot of big numbers in garbage time.

 

Yeah my post was directly related to Winston and Eli.  Narrowing down the context would make it more meaningful imo.  Maybe down 7 points or less or something to that effect.

[Scott7975]

8 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

Yeah my post was directly related to Winston and Eli.  Narrowing down the context would make it more meaningful imo.  Maybe down 7 points or less or something to that effect.

4th quarter within 7

 

Eli has 312 yards 4 TDs 1 int  124.0 rating

Winston 342 yards 3 TDs 1 int 118.1 rating

 

 

Edited November 10, 2017 by Scott7975

[BuffaloHokie13]

10 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

Yeah my post was directly related to Winston and Eli.  Narrowing down the context would make it more meaningful imo.  Maybe down 7 points or less or something to that effect.

I might put together a table, as the data doesn't seem readily available in a good comparison format. There is a specific split stat for stats in the 4th quarter while the game is within 7 points (+/-).

As an example;

Brady is 20/34 for 233 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs, with a rating of 99.3

Eli is 22/33 for 312 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, with a rating of 124.0

Brees is 8/10 for 99 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs, with a rating of 107.9

Edited November 10, 2017 by BuffaloHokie13