Short the NFL?

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

Is soccer having any issues like this in Europe?.........I know it's even more deeply ingrained into the culture but the on-field product just doesn't seem to suit modern tastes........the crowds are more interesting than the games, by A LOT, IMO. 

 

Sort of. At the top level, no. The game at the top level is more popular than ever and worldwide television viewing figures are up year on year for the Champions League and the Premier League.  Domestically Sky Sports did actually see a small drop in figures for its Sunday afternoon slots last year but it was broadly a similar cocktail of factors to the NFL - uninspiring games, over commercialisation and too many live games (the Premier League has 10 games per game week and some weeks has as many as 6 different kick off times and 5 different tv slots) and diversification of the rights holders (ie. people now need two different subscription services to watch all the CL and PL games rather than just Sky Sports).  

 

But lower down it has absolutely happened already.  The second tier of English soccer (ridiculously entitled "The Championship") particularly used to have pretty solid TV figures and used to be very well attended in person too.  Now its TV deal is a pittance and as a result ticket prices have gone up to try and make up the financial shortfall and fans rightly have said "sod off".  I went to a third tier game when I was in the South West with some friends 2 weekends ago and had to pay $30 for a ticket to a stadium that was half empty.  It made no sense.  And a lot of those clubs built bigger grounds in the 90s because the money was sloshing about and they were aiming for a lucrative place in the Premier League.  It looks awful on TV now watching a second tier game now...... the stadiums are obviously so sparsely populated.  It looks like a Chargers home game!

 

As for your final point..... I know many Americans think the on field product in soccer is dull.  But the rest of the world really doesn't agree. There is a reason it is the most popular game around the world.... from the UK, to China and India, to South America, to Africa. I obviously enjoy both soccer and football but with many of my UK friends I have to argue about how the NFL is exciting. They see it as deathly dull compared to soccer.  

 

But I do think you are right that at some point sport will see an economic correction.  

 

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I'm not sure many fans calculate concern for possible player injury into the decision to watch sports---particularly football, where injuries are anticipated....even long term significant ones.  Look a the meteoric rise of MMA, which is far more brutal than boxing.  Fans don't care that those MMA fighters may end up with symptomatic CTE some day.  They are paying to be entertained by professional athletes who fully understand and accept the risks of their profession.  Same is true for football.

 

As for Costas, I don't recall him bringing up the scrambling of players brains when he annually fawns over and eloquently rhapsodizes the game in his annual Super Bowl broadcasts...

 

And the main problem for those who view CTE as the main demise in the future for football is that it is obvious that the vast majority of players (and certainly the "many players" Costas personally knows) have not and do not suffer neurologic effects of CTE.

 

Americans love watching sports on TV.  They have shown that they not interested in watching the NHL, that they watch the NBA and MLB occasionally and at playoff time.  So, despite the recent dip in numbers of viewers, the NFL is overwhelmingly the favorite choice of pro sports viewing in this country.  I don't see what will supplant it.

I personally know many people who do factor the CTE issue in and refuse to watch it on those grounds (and they used to watch it).  Practically no one I know lets their kids play tackle football either (and my nearly 18-year old son has participated at the highest levels of youth travel sports since he was 8). Are these folks a majority of the viewership? No, but we're talking about margins here anyway.

 

MMA will also never reach the mass level that the NFL has achieved, so I don't think it's remotely comparable. It's a fringe sport that has almost zero purchase among sports fans with college degrees or above or who are in the professional classes. This isn't meant to denigrate its fans; just stating  an objective reality.

 

Finally, I do expect that football remains #1 for the foreseeable future. But bear in mind that boxing and horse racing used to be #1 too. 

 

Actually, one more note - I find the NFL just as watchable as it ever was. I fully reject the idea that it's somehow less watchable now than it was at its actual height of popularity 4 years ago. 

54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sort of. At the top level, no. The game at the top level is more popular than ever and worldwide television viewing figures are up year on year for the Champions League and the Premier League.  Domestically Sky Sports did actually see a small drop in figures for its Sunday afternoon slots last year but it was broadly a similar cocktail of factors to the NFL - uninspiring games, over commercialisation and too many live games (the Premier League has 10 games per game week and some weeks has as many as 6 different kick off times and 5 different tv slots) and diversification of the rights holders (ie. people now need two different subscription services to watch all the CL and PL games rather than just Sky Sports).  

 

But lower down it has absolutely happened already.  The second tier of English soccer (ridiculously entitled "The Championship") particularly used to have pretty solid TV figures and used to be very well attended in person too.  Now its TV deal is a pittance and as a result ticket prices have gone up to try and make up the financial shortfall and fans rightly have said "sod off".  I went to a third tier game when I was in the South West with some friends 2 weekends ago and had to pay $30 for a ticket to a stadium that was half empty.  It made no sense.  And a lot of those clubs built bigger grounds in the 90s because the money was sloshing about and they were aiming for a lucrative place in the Premier League.  It looks awful on TV now watching a second tier game now...... the stadiums are obviously so sparsely populated.  It looks like a Chargers home game!

 

As for your final point..... I know many Americans think the on field product in soccer is dull.  But the rest of the world really doesn't agree. There is a reason it is the most popular game around the world.... from the UK, to China and India, to South America, to Africa. I obviously enjoy both soccer and football but with many of my UK friends I have to argue about how the NFL is exciting. They see it as deathly dull compared to soccer.  

 

But I do think you are right that at some point sport will see an economic correction.  

 

Good post. Thanks.

 

Perhaps not the place for this, but the league is smart to be pumping up this sport: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/26/nyregion/flag-football-touches-down-in-brooklyn.html .

 

Flag is arguably the favorite sport of nearly every athletic kid that I know. It's an awesome game - a cross between football and ultimate frisbee (another great game).

Edited November 10, 2017 by dave mcbride

[Marty McFly]

On 11/8/2017 at 4:45 PM, TheFunPolice said:

Too many prime time games. TNF has oversaturated the market.

 

To me that is problem #1. MNF is now meaningless. The games are awful almost every week. You don't hear a lady singing "Monday night's about to happen..." because nobody cares about watching crappy games with zero sizzle on MNF when there are thousands of other options on cable, streaming, etc.

 

A close second is the refs are ruining the games. Non-stop penalties. When there is a big play you have to delay your excitement to make sure there aren't any flags, because it seems like 9/10 special teams returns of any kind have a holding or block in the back penalty. Huge play on defense? NOPE! Illegal contact, automatic 1st down! Team has 3rd and 27, runs a simple draw for 3 yards and you're off the field?! Nope. Illegal hands to the face on some DL. First down!

 

What is a catch? Did the ball bobble? All this non-stop debate over plays is killing the sport. Call only the most obvious penalties and stop sucking the life out of the game with fantom holding calls that take points and exciting plays off the board.

 

 

Its really just the booking of the prime time games. The league should have a good idea who's gonna be good and who won't. If they want to draw more viewers and revenue to prime time they need to start book in it like a promotion and then they would draw more. Its fckn simple. Goodells drowning in so much money on not sure it matters to em as much as the board and investors.

[TheFunPolice]

Football need not be as dangerous or violent as it is. Most of the injuries come on passing plays where WR get decked or blown up by a blindside block or on kick/fumble/INT returns for the same reasons. You can tackle and hit without taking headshots or trying to blow players up with "de-cleater" type hits.

 

I just wonder how much of an impact all of these new rules is having on player safety. If it's significant then football will be fine. If all of these new rules and concussion protocols are not helping then it will be in trouble.

 

 

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Football need not be as dangerous or violent as it is. Most of the injuries come on passing plays where WR get decked or blown up by a blindside block or on kick/fumble/INT returns for the same reasons. You can tackle and hit without taking headshots or trying to blow players up with "de-cleater" type hits.

 

I just wonder how much of an impact all of these new rules is having on player safety. If it's significant then football will be fine. If all of these new rules and concussion protocols are not helping then it will be in trouble.

 

 

Last night it seemed like 6-7 players were dragged off the field with significant injuries, and Russell Wilson took a pretty hard shot to the chin that put him off the field for a play (although he was able to go back in).  So no, I don't think it's changing all that much. It's a brutal game and will remain so if defenses remain intent on stopping offenses through the imposition of will. I don't see that changing.

Edited November 10, 2017 by dave mcbride

[TheFunPolice]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Last night it seemed like 6-7 players were dragged off the field with significant injuries, and Russell Wilson took a pretty hard shot to the chin that put him off the field for a play (although he was able to go back in).  So no, I don't think it's changing all that much. It's a brutal game and will remain so if defenses are intent on stopping offenses through the imposition of will. I don't see that changing.

 

Achilles, knees, ankles are one thing. You'll never eliminate those. In fact, you might have more knee injuries with the emphasis on going low.

 

I think the major concern for the future of the game is brain injuries. Everyone has always known that knees and bones get broken playing football, but the brain injuries were more hidden because you don't see them until later.

 

When you have Cowboys players openly talking about how Troy Aikman's mind was somewhere in outer space during the 4th Super Bowl because he was so concussed he didn't know what freaking planet he was on you know there is a major issue.

Edited November 10, 2017 by TheFunPolice

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

Achilles, knees, ankles are one thing. You'll never eliminate those. In fact, you might have more knee injuries with the emphasis on going low.

 

I think the major concern for the future of the game is brain injuries. Everyone has always known that knees and bones get broken playing football, but the brain injuries were more hidden because you don't see them until later.

 

When you have Cowboys players openly talking about how Troy Aikman's mind was somewhere in outer space during the 4th Super Bowl because he was so concussed he didn't know what freaking planet he was on you know there is a major issue.

As long as guys are driven into the ground on a regular basis (where helmets often bounce on the ground) and as long as linemen knock heads on basically every play, the issue will remain. 

[TheFunPolice]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

As long as guys are driven into the ground on a regular basis (where helmets often bounce on the ground) and as long as linemen knock heads on basically every play, the issue will remain. 

 

It will, but how much will the new rules help do you think? Will they cut CTE cases by 50%? 75%?

 

There will always be some. Concussions are a part of every sport.

[BuffaloBill]

29 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

As long as guys are driven into the ground on a regular basis (where helmets often bounce on the ground) and as long as linemen knock heads on basically every play, the issue will remain. 

 

 

I honestly wonder how long it will be before CTE and the injury situation in the NFL becomes a race and class situation.  I have zero interest in inciting anything with the comment but the truth of the matter is that more and more parents are pulling their kids from the sport.  It doesn’t take a leap to think that the majority doing this are more educated, wealthier and white.

 

[dave mcbride]

44 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

It will, but how much will the new rules help do you think? Will they cut CTE cases by 50%? 75%?

 

There will always be some. Concussions are a part of every sport.

Dunno. I have to think it helps some. They are part of every sport, but outside of the other blood sports (boxing, MMA), football is off the charts relative to the others. Fast, huge, and exceptionally strong guys taking each other out is going to lead to concussions.

[bbb]

On 11/8/2017 at 2:30 PM, BuffaloBill said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-lewis-author-moneyball-short-nfl-135810598.html

 

Author of Moneyball points out the NFL is having problems in its business model.  Primarily states that viewership is down and sentiment is becoming problematic due to CTE and protest issues.

 

 

 

 

Damn, I was hoping to learn how to actually short the NFL. 

[bobobonators]

Its easy to predict that something is going to go down when the only direction that one thing can do is pretty much go down from where its at now. 

 

The NFL has nothing else to prove. Its in a league of its own in terms of revenue. Not only is it tops in the US. Its pretty much tops in the world when it comes to professional sports leagues. Where else is there to go from here?  Logically, down. 

 

But the NFL is not going anywhere. There will always be ups and downs in terms of revenue as the decades go on; but on they’ll certainly go.  

 

Fans complain about the NFL product bc thats what society is good at: complaining. People LOVE to take shots at people or entities that are on top/extremely successful. But at the end of the day the sheep (including myself) sit our asses down and watch the NFL on Sunday. And thursday. And monday. Its embedded in our culture. Its who we are. Its what we do. 

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I personally know many people who do factor the CTE issue in and refuse to watch it on those grounds (and they used to watch it).  Practically no one I know lets their kids play tackle football either (and my nearly 18-year old son has participated at the highest levels of youth travel sports since he was 8). Are these folks a majority of the viewership? No, but we're talking about margins here anyway.

 

MMA will also never reach the mass level that the NFL has achieved, so I don't think it's remotely comparable. It's a fringe sport that has almost zero purchase among sports fans with college degrees or above or who are in the professional classes. This isn't meant to denigrate its fans; just stating  an objective reality.

 

Finally, I do expect that football remains #1 for the foreseeable future. But bear in mind that boxing and horse racing used to be #1 too. 

 

 

I respect your concern for CTE related injuries.  But I used the MMA as an example of a sport that has grown exponentially popularity with a wide demographic (the minority of NFL fans are in "the professional classes", I would easily assume)--yet the risk of fighters developing CTE is obvious to every fan.  They feel that this is legitimate entertainment provided by professional athletes who know and accept the occupational hazard their job requires that they are exposed to.

 

Boxing fell out of popularity not because Ali began to slur his words or because Tyson decided to bight off Holyfield's ear---it dies because there was no more Ali or Tyson.  Times were different.  Not all pro sports games were televised all the time even in their home markets.  Boxing got boring,  yet the more violent blood sport of MMA  very quickly became popular.

 

I'm guessing that horse racing as a whole (not just the Triple Crown) was the "#1 sport" before the age of television..

 

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

I honestly wonder how long it will be before CTE and the injury situation in the NFL becomes a race and class situation.  I have zero interest in inciting anything with the comment but the truth of the matter is that more and more parents are pulling their kids from the sport.  It doesn’t take a leap to think that the majority doing this are more educated, wealthier and white.

 

 

70% of the NFL roster already is African American--that was in 2014, before many "educated, wealthy, white" parents began pulling their kids from football.  So if it goes to 75% AA, it will then become a class/race situation?

 

It has been that for many years.

[bbb]

I've actually read that MMA is much safer than boxing because they let you tap out instead of being beaten into unconsciousness. 

[Jauronimo]

22 minutes ago, bbb said:

I've actually read that MMA is much safer than boxing because they let you tap out instead of being beaten into unconsciousness. 

And you don't eat 100 punches per fight.  There are submissions.  You aren't solely punching people in the face.

[bbb]

22 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

And you don't eat 100 punches per fight.  There are submissions.  You aren't solely punching people in the face.

 

It really makes sense. 

[reddogblitz]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I agree with all of that........there are inexplicable things too........like the ridiculous inability to find anything entertaining for fans to do at halftime of games.   Marching bands in 2017?  WTF?

 

Marching bands are cool. I was at the Bucs game where the Ohio State band played at it was AWESOME.

 

I'd LOVE to see them have Grambling or some other southern band like that.

 

I would much rather see that than washed up rockers and pop stars lip syncing.

 

What do YOU have in mind?

 

 

 

[LA Grant]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I agree with all of that........there are inexplicable things too........like the ridiculous inability to find anything entertaining for fans to do at halftime of games.   Marching bands in 2017?  WTF?

 

I think long term there is a market correction coming in pro sports.   It's happened in other forms of enterainment for similar reasons.........musicians for instance saw a bubble where they were making more money than ever in the 1990's because CD's were dirt cheap to make........then the bubble burst, mainly because of file sharing.    No pro athlete is worth $30M per season in this entertainment saturated market......it is bound for correction.   Declining NFL ratings and ad revenue will eventually lower the value of TV deals and then the cap will drop and salaries will drop, IMO.  

 

If the NFL doesn't become much more fan friendly/inclusive I could see the NFL game eventually played indoors in smaller arenas........much less violence.........maybe bigger rosters.....fast paced no-huddle type action.....more games.

 

 

 

I think you're right. I can easily see all of that happening. Not sure when or what the tipping point will be, but you're right, it will happen in some form. Someone better make sure to bump this thread when it does

 

[reddogblitz]

I have an easy fix for the Thursday Night Game. Teams play on Thursday following the bye week. No game for 11 days followed by no game for 10 days. Problem solved. Since they are all division matchups, shouldn't be too hard to schedule.