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Posted

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT BUFFALO BILLS (+3)

Pick: Saints 25 – 23 (Bills cover)

 

Point (GC): The Saints have a legit shot at a Super Bowl run, but I am not about to fall prey to the fact that the better team overall doesn’t win every game. Buffalo has the extra rest and a home field advantage that combines bitter cold with a propensity for good quarterbacks off the winning side when visiting Orchard Park (see Carr, Derek). While Drew Brees is our second- highest graded QB, the gap between him and the eighth-ranked Taylor is just 1.5 (85.8 to 84.3). Taylor has done this without a wide receiver ranked in the top 50, so the addition of Kelvin Benjamin (79.1 – 28th) should provide a boost. No, I’m not worried about Kelvin eating all the buffalo wings. I’m not. At all. Topping things off, the Saints run defense is allowing the seventh-most yards before first contact per carry while also letting runners gain yards after contact on 83.2 percent of attempts (second-most), in case you are wondering that is not the best combo. Slim Shady, stand up.

 

Counterpoint (EE): While the market is likely overvaluing the Saints, how much should we guard against correcting for a blowout Thursday-night loss to the Jets? While the Bills defense has largely played well all year, they surrendered a 121.3 passer rating to Josh McCown when McCown was kept clean. The Saints’ offensive line is as healthy as they’ve been all year and is playing its best football to date, surrendering only four pressured dropbacks last week against Tampa Bay. If the Bills struggle to get to Brees it might be a long day for Tyrod Taylor and Co. as they try to keep up. 

Posted
 
Key game-time decisions
 
New Orleans Saints: T Terron Armstead (chest), G Larry Warford (abdomen)
Both offensive linemen were limited Friday. The Saints ruled out S Kenny Vaccaro (groin).
 
Buffalo Bills: TE Charles Clay (knee), CB E.J. Gaines (hamstring), T Seantrel Henderson (back)
Clay and Gaines were both limited all week. Clay could return after missing the past three games. The Bills ruled out T Cordy Glenn (foot, ankle) and WR Zay Jones (ankle)
 
What to Watch For

New Orleans Saints (6-2) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

If I told you in Week 2 that this would be the only matchup of Week 10 between two teams with winning records, you'd have scoffed. At the time, the Saints were 0-2, and the Bills were 1-1 off a three-point offensive output. Eight weeks later, and this is the hottest matchup of the weekend.
 
NFL Research stat of the week: With the Saints relying on the run this season, Drew Brees is averaging his second-fewest passing attempts per game (34.4) since joining the Saints in 2006.
Posted

26cornerblitz thank you for you time , energy and passion in posting all of this information. I gain so much insight  so quickly because of your efforts!!!! ????????

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Posted
45 minutes ago, Paul Costa said:

26cornerblitz thank you for you time , energy and passion in posting all of this information. I gain so much insight  so quickly because of your efforts!!!! ????????

 

Thanks for the acknowledgement.  Enjoy and Go Bills! :beer:

Posted
There are a lot of things that can trip up the Saints this week, but our NFL Nation reporters think the Bills' home winning streak ends Sunday.

New Orleans Saints

There are a lot of things that can trip up the Saints this week: Buffalo's opportunistic defense (NFL-leading 2.1 takeaways per game), Buffalo's running game with LeSean McCoy and QB Tyrod Taylor, and potential weather conditions. But the Saints seem better equipped to handle all of those elements than they've been in years, with a standout defense and running game flanking QB Drew Brees. Since their six-game winning streak began in Week 3, the Saints have the NFL's No. 1 pass defense and No. 2 defense overall. Saints 24, Bills 20 -- Mike Triplett

Buffalo Bills

Current projections call for temperatures in the low 40s and close to zero percent chance of precipitation. That would seem to benefit the Saints, although their offense has performed well both in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and on the road this season. The Saints, who are 3-1 on the road, have averaged 25 points per game (ninth in NFL) and 384 yards (fifth) away from New Orleans this season. The Bills are 4-0 at home but have beaten the Jets, Broncos, Buccaneers and Raiders, who are a combined 3-14 on the road. Saints 28, Bills 17 -- Mike Rodak

Posted

Know the enemy

How to follow the game

What the Saints are saying

What the Bills are saying

Odds

Saints injury report

Bills injury report

 

 

Fairburn's prediction

Season Record: 4-4

The Bills are coming off a humiliating loss on national television and have to play one of the league's hottest teams. They have a few things going for them, though. In games played in sub-45-degree temperatures, Brees is 4-7. The temperature in Orchard Park should be under 45. More importantly, the Saints could be without both left tackle Terron Armstead and safety Kenny Vaccaro. Both would be significant loss for New Orleans. With how well Buffalo plays at home, this is a game the Bills could pull out. 

Bills 27, Saints 23

 

Talbot's prediction
The Saints' six-game win streak will be up against the Bills' perfect home record on Sunday. New Orleans is more balanced on offense this season than in the past and their defense is playing very well. However, during their six-game win streak, they've defeated the likes of Jay Cutler, Brett Hundley, Mitch Trubisky and a combination of Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Every win counts, but no one should count out Buffalo based on the Saints' winning streak. Buffalo is coming off of 10-days rest and seem to play much better at New Era Field. It'll be a close game, but the Bills do just enough to win.
Bills 27 - Saints 24
 
What's next?

The Bills will travel to Los Angeles to play the Chargers in Week 11.

Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

unnacceptable.  I'm driving from PGH to freeze my a$$ off to help the Bills win.  Come on fellow 12th men, lets do our job!!  :thumbsup:

 

Didn't I pass you on 79?  I make that trip every home game.

 

(Yea despite my screen name I now live just north of PGH).

Edited by BillnutinHouston
Posted

Vaccaro is a big loss for their defense. I believe he has been serving as their nickel CB. Possible opportunity for Matthews to eat out of the slot, or perhaps Big Play Chuckie Clay. 

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