BringBackOrton Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, section122 said: I like how you used the English language there. Very impressive. By saying double, quadruple, etc.. you make it seem like a huge difference. Instead of saying 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, or even at most 14 more throws you used the multiplier which makes the difference seem much greater than it is. Then you picked the most extreme example of 4.8 to .5 nicely ignoring that 3 of the guys are within 1.5% and even your extreme outlier is only 4.3% more. Then you pull 1/20 or 1/200. 4.3% better odds would be the difference between 1/20 or 1.86/20. I'll put it to you another way. Your "vast difference" between .5% and 4.8% means that Taylor would need to have attempted 12 total throws to be at 5%. So 11 more throws over his 236 attempts would make him the leader in the category. As Transplant pointed out though it isn't a throw qbs make often as 11 total throws would be more than everyone on your list save for Brady. The likely GOAT QB throwing to the likely GOAT TE. Shocker that they throw that more than anyone else in the league... btw his 236 attempts are 23-73 less throws than the other guys, is that also a vast difference? That is anywhere from 9% and 23% more throws. *started celebrating being out of work already, numbers subject to me being slightly under the influence I actually used the multiplier that is factual. We are comparing him to other QB's. I didn't ignore the folks at 1.5%. I said triple in my first sentence. 4.3% "better odds" is actually not how you do statistics or maths.
BADOLBILZ Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 1 hour ago, jmc12290 said: Every QB you posted was either double, or triple or quadruple, or almost 10x as much throwing to the deep third as Taylor. Kinda confusing how you don't see the vast difference between .5% and 4.8%. Would you buy a lottery ticket with 1/20 odds or 1/200? You are just on the wrong side of this argument. Numbers don't support you.......and making a mountain out of a molehill amount with multiples and fractions?.......focusing on a rarely thrown pass like it's particularly meaningful.......when you know the guy has nobody to run that route? Taylor has done much better than a lot of you expected........roll with it. 1
section122 Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, jmc12290 said: I actually used the multiplier that is factual. We are comparing him to other QB's. I didn't ignore the folks at 1.5%. I said triple in my first sentence. 4.3% "better odds" is actually not how you do statistics or maths. I gave you credit you made 3 throws over 259 seem like a huge difference. It was great word play. It is indeed factual but misleading none the less. Do we say the Bills have 5 times as many wins as the Giants or do we say they have 4 more wins than the Giants. Both are factually correct 1 is just really misleading. Again though I give you credit for your use of the language to make your point seem much more valid than it is. You are correct though on the statistics and maths so I apologize 4.3% better odds was wrong on my part. Like I said I'm celebrating a long week that has one more week to go. Cheers!
BringBackOrton Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, section122 said: I gave you credit you made 3 throws over 259 seem like a huge difference. It was great word play. It is indeed factual but misleading none the less. Do we say the Bills have 5 times as many wins as the Giants or do we say they have 4 more wins than the Giants. Both are factually correct 1 is just really misleading. Again though I give you credit for your use of the language to make your point seem much more valid than it is. You are correct though on the statistics and maths so I apologize 4.3% better odds was wrong on my part. Like I said I'm celebrating a long week that has one more week to go. Cheers! Thank you. I do try.
transplantbillsfan Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 2 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said: Yes, there is. He can chose not to or he can choose to. That doesn't mean he can not. Taylor has always thrown over the middle. the argument was that his #'s were "below" league average. Generally speaking This whole argument is TRASH. It's as much trash here as it was on the BBMB. 9 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said: 2 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said: posting these stats over and over proves nothing. 2 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said: Yes, there is. He can chose not to or he can choose to. That doesn't mean he can not. Taylor has always thrown over the middle. the argument was that his #'s were "below" league average. Generally speaking This whole argument is TRASH. It's as much trash here as it was on the BBMB. Honestly, 3 posts in one page you talk about people beating a dead horse and yet you persist in the very same thread. If posting stats proves nothing, what exactly will prove something? Or even start to prove something? The EYE TEST from ShadyBillsFan? I get that this discussion is stale, but it persists in many ways because of absolute stubbornness. And that stubbornness exists on both sides. But if you're so sick of the conversation, rather than just saying "this conversation is pointless!!!" 3 times on the same page, why not exit a conversation that's gone 25 pages where some evidently feel it's a worthwhile conversation to have
transplantbillsfan Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, jmc12290 said: Every QB you posted was either double, or triple or quadruple, or almost 10x as much throwing to the deep third as Taylor. Kinda confusing how you don't see the vast difference between .5% and 4.8%. Would you buy a lottery ticket with 1/20 odds or 1/200? So you go with Brady for comparison's sake? Brady is the highest of highs... and even he doesn't crack 5% of all of his throws to the deep middle of the field. Yeah, Brady's thrown to the deep middle 14 more times than Taylor on 100 more charted attempts. How about Rivers who's thrown to the deep middle just 5 more times than Taylor on 77 more charted attempts? Or Cousins who's thrown to the deep middle just 4 more times than Taylor on 59 more charted attempts? Or Dak who's thrown to the deep middle just 3 more times than Taylor on 50 more charted attempts? This is just pathetic. I know you disagree with me a lot as a poster so you see my username and, like Pavlov's dog, you're conditioned to disagree. But try taking a moment and accepting reality: NFL QBs overwhelmingly rarely go to the deep middle!!! Edited November 9, 2017 by transplantbillsfan
BringBackOrton Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: So you go with Brady for comparison's sake? Brady is the highest of highs... and even he doesn't crack 5% of all of his throws to the deep middle of the field. Yeah, Brady's thrown to the deep middle 14 more times than Taylor on 100 more charted attempts. How about Rivers who's thrown to the deep middle just 5 more times than Taylor on 77 more charted attempts? Or Cousins who's thrown to the deep middle just 4 more times than Taylor on 59 more charted attempts? Or Dak who's thrown to the deep middle just 3 more times than Taylor on 50 more charted attempts? This is just pathetic. I know you disagree with me a lot as a poster so you see my username and, like Pavlov's dog, you're conditioned to disagree. But try taking a moment and accepting reality: NFL QBs overwhelmingly rarely go to the deep middle!!! Who contended that?
transplantbillsfan Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, jmc12290 said: Who contended that? All right, bro. Keep trolling. Clearly that's what you're doing. Have your fun. Argue just to argue. I'd love it if that's all Thurm was doing, but he delusionally believes there's really some significant difference between 1/209, 6/286, 5/268, or 4/259. There's not. Brady is the highest end example I could find of throwing to the deep middle and he doesn't even hit 5% of all his throws. Brady as a benchmark that needs to be met is sheer lunacy.
BringBackOrton Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: All right, bro. Keep trolling. Clearly that's what you're doing. Have your fun. Argue just to argue. I'd love it if that's all Thurm was doing, but he delusionally believes there's really some significant difference between 1/209, 6/286, 5/268, or 4/259. There's not. Brady is the highest end example I could find of throwing to the deep middle and he doesn't even hit 5% of all his throws. Brady as a benchmark that needs to be met is sheer lunacy. No one argued that either. Are your own arguments so meritless you have to make up others to dispute? BTW, the difference between one or two 20+ yard passes down the field could be the difference between 7-1 and 5-3 at this stage. But, you know.... Edited November 9, 2017 by jmc12290
JPP Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: All right, bro. Keep trolling. Clearly that's what you're doing. Have your fun. Argue just to argue. I'd love it if that's all Thurm was doing, but he delusionally believes there's really some significant difference between 1/209, 6/286, 5/268, or 4/259. There's not. Brady is the highest end example I could find of throwing to the deep middle and he doesn't even hit 5% of all his throws. Brady as a benchmark that needs to be met is sheer lunacy. Been reading this exchange while shaking my head (face palm)....Just have to say to something here......people comparing a QB (who ever that may be) to Brady is just pathetic and is a definate losing arguement.....anyone who knows football knows that the only QB you should compare to Brady would be Aaron Rogers...Drew Brees....perhaps Ronchiberger (pre 2017)......
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 (edited) 36 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: If posting stats proves nothing, what exactly will prove something? Or even start to prove something? Winning no need for 100 word essays repeating the same **** over and over and over Edited November 9, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan
transplantbillsfan Posted November 10, 2017 Posted November 10, 2017 1 hour ago, jmc12290 said: No one argued that either. Are your own arguments so meritless you have to make up others to dispute? BTW, the difference between one or two 20+ yard passes down the field could be the difference between 7-1 and 5-3 at this stage. But, you know.... Actually, yes, Thurman#1 has been arguing everything I countered in my posts. You're want to start taking a tangent off that point and start arguing, which is what you're clearly doing? Fine, we can do that. But yes, Thurman#1 has been arguing that deep middle third crap for the last year and a half and gets proven wrong time and time and time again. With these Next Gen Stats, it's pretty definitive. Now, you want to talk about your tangent and have a separate discussion from the point Thurm was making and the point I was proving just factually incorrect? Sure, one or two 20+ yard passes down the field could be the difference between 7-1 and 5-3. But then maybe Kirk Cousins's 5 additional turnovers, Philip Rivers's 4 additional turnovers or Dak Prescott's 1 additional turnover are significantly more detrimental in their weight than Taylor's 4, 5, or 3 passes (respectively) to the deep middle than those guys 1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said: Winning no need for 100 word essays repeating the same **** over and over and over Well then why do you say anything negative about Taylor when the team wins? I mean, you say a crapload of negative stuff about Taylor, win or lose. Why would you do that if he's meeting your benchmark?
grb Posted November 10, 2017 Posted November 10, 2017 4 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said: Yes, there is. He can chose not to or he can choose to. That doesn't mean he can not. Taylor has always thrown over the middle. the argument was that his #'s were "below" league average. Generally speaking This whole argument is TRASH. It's as much trash here as it was on the BBMB. There's a kind of zen perfection to this response. Here you attempt to tease out some kind of weird distinction with no more substance than dissipating mist, There you loudly disparage useless & meaningless arguing It's like a snake swallowing it's own tail. Definitely well-played obfuscation-wise. Two Points : (1) The refrain from every Tyrod critic wasn't that TT's middle-throws were a few percentage points below league average. The people making that point were defenders, not critics. The critics were the ones claiming Taylor only threw across the middle every time the nine planets aligned in a harmonic convergence. But - you'll say - that's stupid. Yeah; maybe we'll make a Taylor defender out of you yet. (2) But only if you give up trolling games like your chose to / chose not to. The people who convinced themselves Taylor never threw into the middle thought it was because he was too short, too afraid, and unable to process what was happening there. But - you'll say - that's stupid. Yeah.........
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 10, 2017 Posted November 10, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Well then why do you say anything negative about Taylor when the team wins? I mean, you say a crapload of negative stuff about Taylor, win or lose. Why would you do that if he's meeting your benchmark? Not as much as you want to believe 6 minutes ago, grb said: There's a kind of zen perfection to this response. Thanks FACT Taylor is a good QB FACT posting endless stats will not change the type of QB he is. Edited November 10, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan
grb Posted November 10, 2017 Posted November 10, 2017 1 hour ago, jmc12290 said: No one argued that either. Are your own arguments so meritless you have to make up others to dispute? BTW, the difference between one or two 20+ yard passes down the field could be the difference between 7-1 and 5-3 at this stage. But, you know.... Really? Then perhaps you'd be interested in this : After the Jets game Taylor was sixth in the NFL in the percent of his throws going for plus-20 yards. The people in front of him were Goff, Watson, Brady, Cousins and Brees (though I forget what order). Immediately behind Taylor was Wilson. Then came everyone else.
THEHARDTRUTH Posted November 10, 2017 Posted November 10, 2017 Tyrod is a top five qb in this league. Maybe top three. Has zero talent around him. Give him an oline and two quality wrs and hed easily throw for 40 tds and 5000 yards per year.
BullBuchanan Posted November 10, 2017 Posted November 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, grb said: Really? Then perhaps you'd be interested in this : After the Jets game Taylor was sixth in the NFL in the percent of his throws going for plus-20 yards. The people in front of him were Goff, Watson, Brady, Cousins and Brees (though I forget what order). Immediately behind Taylor was Wilson. Then came everyone else. Do the 20 yard out of bounds attempts count? Hes good for a few of those every game. Taylor hardly ever puts his WRs in a position to succeed. Jared Goff seems to have no problem dropping 51 points on the board with Watkins and Woods, but somehow they weren't good enough to play here. Jordan Matthews had no problem catching TDs and putting up WR 1/2 numbers With Vick/Foles/Wentz, but here he's an overrated bum getting outperformed by Marquise Goodwin. I wonder what everyone is going to say when Benjamin puts up the two worst seasons of his career...
grb Posted November 10, 2017 Posted November 10, 2017 3 hours ago, jmc12290 said: Every QB you posted was either double, or triple or quadruple, or almost 10x as much throwing to the deep third as Taylor. Kinda confusing how you don't see the vast difference between .5% and 4.8%. Would you buy a lottery ticket with 1/20 odds or 1/200? OK, lottery tickets : Your odds of winning the lottery on a single ticket is one in 175 million. Say I'm sitting up on a cloud overhead and decide "That jmc12290 has led a blameless life. I think I'll increase his chance of winning to one in 87.5 million" How much better off do you think you'd be? How much gratitude should I expect? Attached is the passing charts of all quarterbacks. In Week 9 three quarterbacks completed a single pass to the deep middle. You follow quarterbacks like Cousins or Stafford or Prescott and they may have one deep middle completion in five games. Remember, this subject came from Thurman insisting it was a critical flaw in Taylor's game. Given it has almost zero important to anyone's (and everyone's) game, how critical a flaw can it be? https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/pass
BullBuchanan Posted November 10, 2017 Posted November 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, grb said: OK, lottery tickets : Your odds of winning the lottery on a single ticket is one in 175 million. Say I'm sitting up on a cloud overhead and decide "That jmc12290 has led a blameless life. I think I'll increase his chance of winning to one in 87.5 million" How much better off do you think you'd be? How much gratitude should I expect? Attached is the passing charts of all quarterbacks. In Week 9 three quarterbacks completed a single pass to the deep middle. You follow quarterbacks like Cousins or Stafford or Prescott and they may have one deep middle completion in five games. Remember, this subject came from Thurman insisting it was a critical flaw in Taylor's game. Given it has almost zero important to anyone's (and everyone's) game, how critical a flaw can it be? https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/pass Where are you getting that it has "almost zero importance"? It may be massively critical, but your charts don't designate importance.
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