THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Good Gets Bad, Bad Gets Good

[GoBills808]

I find comments like this unbelievable. The guy completes 75% of his passes, throwing the ball downfield all night (not to the backs), 2 TDs and no interceptions, and your conclusion is that he has problems with his footwork and we'll just have to live with it.

 

Extrapolate the guy's game over 16 games and its 464 completions (that would be third best in the history of the league), 32 touchdowns and 0 interceptions with a passer rating of 108.9 (25th best in the history of the league), and you're complaining about his footwork not being conducive to throwing. Okay, then, I guess he'll have to work on that footwork.

Hmm. He averaged the same YPA as McCown. They had the same passer rating. Are you as enamored of McCown's performance as you are Taylor's?

[Shaw66]

Hmm. He averaged the same YPA as McCown. They had the same passer rating. Are you as enamored of McCown's performance as you are Taylor's?

McCown didn't throw for 285 yards and 2 TDs.

 

What was wrong with Taylor's performance last night? His footwork?

[GoBills808]

McCown didn't throw for 285 yards and 2 TDs.

 

What was wrong with Taylor's performance last night? His footwork?

Really...yards. NOW yards are important?

 

How many of those yards came after the outcome was decided? Half? More?

[Comebackkid]

Hmm. He averaged the same YPA as McCown. They had the same passer rating. Are you as enamored of McCown's performance as you are Taylor's?

 

Hmm. He averaged the same YPA as McCown. They had the same passer rating. Are you as enamored of McCown's performance as you are Taylor's?

I'm more enamored by Taylor. Pass rush consistently in his face all game. No run game, receivers not getting much seperation. Bad game plan.

[grb]

Really...yards. NOW yards are important?

 

How many of those yards came after the outcome was decided? Half? More?

 

My measure was the first half X 2 & write the rest off as extra "garbage time" production. That's probably not entirely fair to Taylor, but would strike about 50yds off his total. As Shaw noted, stuff like completion percentage and ypa were pretty consistent - garbage time or not.

Edited November 3, 2017 by grb

[Shaw66]

My measure was the first half X 2 & write the rest off as extra "garbage time" production. That's probably not entirely fair to Taylor, but would strike about 50yds off his total. As Shaw noted, stuff like completion percentage and ypa were pretty consistent - garbage time or not.

My measure started with what I saw, confirmed by the stats. He was getting the ball out on time, hitting receiver with good accuracy, and downfield. It wasn't a checkdown game.

[GoBills808]

 

My measure was the first half X 2 & write the rest off as extra "garbage time" production. That's probably not entirely fair to Taylor, but would strike about 50yds off his total. As Shaw noted, stuff like completion percentage and ypa were pretty consistent - garbage time or not.

I have everything after 6:42 left in the 4th down 34-7 as garbage time. If I'm counting right Taylor threw for over 100 in that stretch.

[HappyDays]

Hmm. He averaged the same YPA as McCown. They had the same passer rating. Are you as enamored of McCown's performance as you are Taylor's?

McCown had a running game and an offensive line performing very well. So no I wasnt.

[GoBills808]

McCown had a running game and an offensive line performing very well. So no I wasnt.

I wasn't either. But his game last night was IMO in line with the prototypical Taylor performance.

[QCity]

Really...yards. NOW yards are important?

 

 

Yeah, all season I've heard the absurd notion that passing yards aren't important, typically accompanied by some astoundingly flawed logic and cherrypicked stats. I'll give Tyrod this -- after we went down 34-7 he looked great.

[Comebackkid]

 

Yeah, all season I've heard the absurd notion that passing yards aren't important, typically accompanied by some astoundingly flawed logic and cherrypicked stats. I'll give Tyrod this -- after we went down 34-7 he looked great.

They also stopped wasting 2 downs running no where

[mrags]

All good except the part about the 6th OLinemen. They did that last week on grind time against the raiders and it worked. They did it a lot too.

[Shaw66]

All good except the part about the 6th OLinemen. They did that last week on grind time against the raiders and it worked. They did it a lot too.

Well the Jets must have studied the films well, because that hevy formation was totally useless. They got nothing every time they brought in the extra lineman.

[Shaw66]

 

Yeah, all season I've heard the absurd notion that passing yards aren't important, typically accompanied by some astoundingly flawed logic and cherrypicked stats. I'll give Tyrod this -- after we went down 34-7 he looked great.

I gave the stats. At the end of the third quarter he was 15-21, 163 yards, 1 TD no INT. Extrapolate that to a fourth quarter and he's 20 for 28, 217 yards. Nothing wrong with that at all. He was playing competitive football, completing 75% of his passes, and they weren't checkdowns. He completed passes at the same percentage in the fourth quarter - he completed more because he was throwing more.

 

I just don't see what there is to complain about in that kind of performance. Maybe you do. I can't help you with that.

[grb]

20 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

My measure started with what I saw, confirmed by the stats. He was getting the ball out on time, hitting receiver with good accuracy, and downfield. It wasn't a checkdown game.

Agreed. Taylor played with professionalism and drive the entire night. As you observed, the quality of his performance didn't change from first quarter to last minute. But when people sneer at his numbers because of "garbage time", you have to give them their due. After all, it's not even based on the QB's performance, but the way a defense changes when closing out a game with a big lead. Quantifying garbage time, however, is an inexact thing. To use an old-fashioned analogy, it's like pornography :  Everyone knows it when they see it, even if they can't come up with a good definition.

[HappyDays]

20 hours ago, Comebackkid said:

They also stopped wasting 2 downs running no where

Just for fun I wanted to see how many games there are since 2000 where a team had 63 or less rushing yards, and their opponent had 194 or more rushing yards, and that team won. I used Pro Football Reference’s game finder.

10 games where the lower rushing total won:

http://pfref.com/tiny/SWauP

197 games where they lost:

http://pfref.com/tiny/LjVCo

You simply cannot win games when your opponent’s rush yards outnumber yours by such a wide margin.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Just for fun I wanted to see how many games there are since 2000 where a team had 63 or less rushing yards, and their opponent had 194 or more rushing yards, and that team won. I used Pro Football Reference’s game finder.

10 games where the lower rushing total won:

http://pfref.com/tiny/SWauP

197 games where they lost:

http://pfref.com/tiny/LjVCo

You simply cannot win games when your opponent’s rush yards outnumber yours by such a wide margin.

That's interesting. Not surprising.  

But the team is built to run. And McD sticks to his plan until he's forced out of it.  Down 10 with 18 minutes yo go he still wants to run. That's what he does. 

I'm curious to see what he does now that he has what looks like a quality receiving corps. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

NIce post as per your usual Shaw. Thanks.

About this part:

"At the risk of starting a firestorm, what I really liked in the Jets game was Tyrod Taylor. Well see what the second half of the season, but Im pretty much sold on him."

What do you mean by sold? He's the future? I figure that is your meaning.

For me, I have never once seen him in one of those games where both sides are airing it out. You remember the ones where team are coming out with four wide and just going at it. I have never seen him march the offense like that, repeatedly, for a half or whole game.

Granted Tyrod does a lot of things well. But until he can throw well, until he can orchestrate and succeeded in a consistent aerial attack, I won't be sold on him. And I haven't seen him do it one time so far.

Would you give 2 first round draft picks for a solid franchise QB? And would you give 2 first round draft picks for Tyrod?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kelly the Dog]

2 hours ago, grb said:

Agreed. Taylor played with professionalism and drive the entire night. As you observed, the quality of his performance didn't change from first quarter to last minute. But when people sneer at his numbers because of "garbage time", you have to give them their due. After all, it's not even based on the QB's performance, but the way a defense changes when closing out a game with a big lead. Quantifying garbage time, however, is an inexact thing. To use an old-fashioned analogy, it's like pornography :  Everyone knows it when they see it, even if they can't come up with a good definition.

I take issue, sometimes, with people who just negate "garbage time" plays and stats as if they don't exist. First, a lot of times defenses aren't in prevent mode when people say or think they are just because it's a 10-30 point lead. Second, a lot of times a great pass or play is a great pass or play whether it was garbage time or not and would have been whether it was garbage time or not. Tyrod's TD to DT was a singular great TD pass. Period. Regardless of the mistake the Jet db made. 

 

 

[Maine-iac]

No Mathews fumble and no facemask that giftwrapped a Jets TD and the biggest reason we lost against the Jets is the long TD to Anderson and the lack of run defense.  We made to many mistakes in the Jets game.  That is the biggest difference from one week to another.