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Posted
16 hours ago, PolishDave said:

 

How do you explain the massive drop off in offensive production from the last couple years to now?

 

Some of it is play calling and scheme.  There was ALWAYS going to be a drop off from Roman's run scheme.  He is put simply the best run game coordinator in the NFL.  

Some of it is offensive line which has had a couple of absolute stinkers.  We have got worse at RG, worse at LT when Glenn has been out (though there are encouraging signs with Dawkins I am not hammering him), Incognito and Wood haven't been as good.  

Some of it is receiver where we have had guys mixing and matching in all year even more so than last year and for 6 weeks Zay Jones looked way out of his depth - rookie growing pains.  

Some of it is Quarterback, Tyrod hasn't fit this scheme as well as he did Roman's "hide the QB scheme" and obviously Peterman was a walking disaster.  

Some of it (more than most want to accept) is the lack of a proper change of pace backup to Shady.  Mike Tolbert is wretched (Cadet yesterday averaged 4.8 ypc by the way... he is a lower end of the league scrub and is more productive than the guy McD insisted on playing.  

 

Essentially it is a myriad of factors.  Dennison is not excluded from that.... and I thought he was borderline awful yesterday.... but it is not just on him either.  When you see a drop off like that it is rarely one thing.  A lack of execution has been apparent most of the year on the tape - especially from the offensive line.  

Posted
18 hours ago, PolishDave said:

 

How do you explain the massive drop off in offensive production from the last couple years to now?

Agreed, though I wouldn't say it's just Rico. Castillo has our line looking like mid-season retirement.

 

The play calling though is definitely questionable. Especially on 3rd down. I see a lot of old-school west coast style play calls, especially on 3rd down. The unfortunate part of having a defensive-minded, rookie HC is that it leaves play calling all on the OC et al., and neither Rico nor Castillo should be a piece in "the process." 

Posted (edited)

no matter who he has at QB: he/they is/are uber conservative on offense.

Contrary to popular belief, the Bills pretty consistently do establish the pass early in games, it's just they don't stick with it once they get a lead because they want to run out the clock.
 
This is why I want to bang my head against a wall with some people who adamantly argue that Taylor isn't a serious contributor to these wins and people who argue that any other QB who comes in will just automatically fix things and be better.
 
It's like people don't bother watching games and just look at the box score in the end.

 

Just look at passing in 1st half of the KC game vs passing in the 2nd half.
 
1st half
15/24 for 121 yards and 1 TD

 

0 sacks 

 

2 scrambles for 13 yards 

 

0 passes called back on penalties 

 

26 total passing plays for 134 total yards
 
We went into the half up by 10 points: 13-3
 
2nd half
4/5 for 62 yards

 

2 sacks minus 19 yards 

 

2 scrambles for 12 yards 

 

9 total passing plays for 55 total yards
 
 
There's an ebb and flow to the conservative way McDermott and Dennison call their plays.  In a game where we're behind, Taylor passes significantly more, in a game we're tied, Taylor passes less, in a 1 score game with the lead, even less, and in a 2 score game, we pass a lot less.
 
The Bills went up by 2 scores (10 points) just under 3 minutes into the 2nd quarter.  Up to that point, Taylor threw 16 passes in 27 plays. 59% passing rate.
 
Then the Bills went up by 2 scores and on their next drive and he only threw 3 passes on 12 plays. 25% passing rate.
 
Then the Chiefs kicked a FG and came within 1 score and the Bills got the ball back with less than 2 minutes and Taylor threw 6 passes in 7 plays to lead the team to a FG to go up by 10 points. 86% passing rate.
 
 
Then 5 passes in the 2nd half.
 
On the entire year, only 71 of Taylor's 308 passes this year have come when the Bills have been leading, but only 12 of those passes have come when this team has been up by 2 or more scores (9 points or more). 

 

There's only one other NFL QB who's thrown 4 times more total passes than number of passes from behind:

 

Mithchell Trubisky with the head coach John Foxx, a notoriously conservative Head Coach.

 

And before you just automatically point the finger at Trubisky, take a look at the Colts with Jacoby Brissett, who had thrown almost exactly as many passes from ahead as he has from behind.

 


 
We've run 76 offensive plays up by 9 points or more. He's thrown the ball just 15.8% of the plays we've been up by that much.

 

You just don't find other QBs with such a low %.
 
We've run 688 total offensive plays... 612 have been with us trailing or tied or up by only one score. 296 of those plays have been passes.

( now I realize that there are also designed passing plays that are not reflected in those passes such as sacks and scrambles, but that's a lot more work than I'm willing to do at this moment 0:) ) 
 
When "it's a game," there's clearly a plan to throw the ball as Taylor actually throws the ball 48.4% of the time. Designed passes will be well above 50% and maybe close to 60% when you find all the sacks and scrambles that happened in those 612 plays when we were trailing, tied, or up by one score.
 
When the Bills have a solid lead, he only throws it 15.8% of the friggin time!


I understand that there are probably going to be some who point to how little faith our OC and HC have and Taylor and that this reflects that, but it really doesn't make much sense for a team as ineffective in the running game as we are (we had 16/26 runs by RBs against KC for gains of one yard or less) when you have a QB who will obviously protect the football and not turn it over.
 
We are very likely going to have a new QB under center next season. I don't know why anyone would have any confidence in our OC (and even HC?) in terms of our approach to the games and how effective our QB would be.

Edited by transplantbillsfan
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Posted (edited)

Wow...that's almost unfathomable...and I can't understand it...its not like Taylor gives the ball away...he protects the ball better than anyone in NFL history...its the one thing he actually does REALLY well...

Edited by matter2003
Posted

I can definitely see Dennison being ejected after this season...he was their 4th choice for OC, if I recall.  As for McDermott, he isn't going anywhere...

Posted

It's late and I'm too tired to read the whole original post, but of course our offensive strategy would change with a different QB!  Our strategy is what it is b/c it is built around Tyrod's limitations, of which he has many.

 

Do not assume we would take the same offensive approach to games with a different QB with different strengths.

 

I honestly hope they give this crew at least 3 years.  We need some consistency and they have already done enough interesting/unusual things to warrant some faith that they are competent and will turn things around in time.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Buftex said:

I can definitely see Dennison being ejected after this season...he was their 4th choice for OC, if I recall.  As for McDermott, he isn't going anywhere...

Yes, I should add to my post above that I would not mind changing out the OC; I want to keep the GM/HC team and see what they can do.  Positions coaches/coordinators are different.  I don't mind moves there if it improves the team.

 

I think the OC position could be improved.  

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

It's late and I'm too tired to read the whole original post, but of course our offensive strategy would change with a different QB!  Our strategy is what it is b/c it is built around Tyrod's limitations, of which he has many.

 

Do not assume we would take the same offensive approach to games with a different QB with different strengths.

 

I honestly hope they give this crew at least 3 years.  We need some consistency and they have already done enough interesting/unusual things to warrant some faith that they are competent and will turn things around in time.

 

 

Yes, I should add to my post above that I would not mind changing out the OC; I want to keep the GM/HC team and see what they can do.  Positions coaches/coordinators are different.  I don't mind moves there if it improves the team.

 

I think the OC position could be improved.  

 

That doesn't make much sense...you don't let a QB throw in those situations because you want to limit the exposure he has to turnovers.  Except Tyrod doesn't have those.  Like almost ever. We tied an NFL record last year for fewest turnovers in a season and he owns the lowest INT percentage in NFL history.  On the whole that argument falls flat on its face.

Edited by matter2003
Posted
1 hour ago, BillsFan17 said:

Not even through the first season and McDermott may not last is a topic?

 

I think he's inevitably still here next year, but I'm worried about how much influence he has in this conservative offensive philosophy.

 

If it's very little, I'm not that concerned, but Dennison better be gone.

25 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

First year head coach has us at 6-5 tied for a wild card with what amounts to a rebuild season. Yeah, let's get him out of here. 

 

Yeah, that's not really what I'm saying.

 

This is a question of sustainability.

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Posted (edited)

First season of the new staff and already they are all on the hot seat by some, what a suprise even though I called it in the off season when they brought Tyrod back because of the comparisons of Rex/Tyrod to McD/Tyrod.

 

Over and over again all we heard was it is all on Rex and his D, Tyrod just needs this and needs that it is not Tyrod it is everyone else. Now boom here we go again fire everyone and bring back Tyrod with a new staff. Reminds me of when Mario was here being a cancer his last season.

 

IMO if they build around Tyrod this groundhog day of new staffs will never end, it's like driving on a bridge with no exit. McD needs to get far away from Tyrod if he wants any chance to make this team better IMO.

 

As for a conservative 2nd half IMO it is because Tyrod plays exactly like he was trained to do, play like a backup QB filling in for the starter. Be safe while protecting your stats, run it and hope the D gets the win. Baltimore trained him to do exactly what he is doing.

 

Frank Reich when he was backup here he filled in nicely and got wins but when he went to the expansion team and became a full time starter he proved to not be good enough to be a full time starter and IMO Frank was a better QB then Tyrod

Edited by xRUSHx
Posted
2 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

It's late and I'm too tired to read the whole original post, but of course our offensive strategy would change with a different QB!  Our strategy is what it is b/c it is built around Tyrod's limitations, of which he has many.

 

Do not assume we would take the same offensive approach to games with a different QB with different strengths.

 

I honestly hope they give this crew at least 3 years.  We need some consistency and they have already done enough interesting/unusual things to warrant some faith that they are competent and will turn things around in time.

 

 

Really? You think trading away 4 talented starters on defense for a used condom. Choosing to start a bum 5th round drafted rookie quarterback on the road. Instead of the veteran quarterback that has a total of over a .500 win percentage. In turn, giving this team a zero percent chance of winning in L.A. while in the middle of a playoff race. You think those are signs that these fellas running the team are competent at all? Nooooo way. That is Gary Busey type crazy.

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Posted
2 hours ago, WildBills said:

 

Really? You think trading away 4 talented starters on defense for a used condom. Choosing to start a bum 5th round drafted rookie quarterback on the road. Instead of the veteran quarterback that has a total of over a .500 win percentage. In turn, giving this team a zero percent chance of winning in L.A. while in the middle of a playoff race. You think those are signs that these fellas running the team are competent at all? Nooooo way. That is Gary Busey type crazy.

And yet the defense overall is much better than last year. And he has a team many had no hope for in the playoff mix.   And they did not trade 4 starters on D.  At least one (Gilmore) left in free agency.  

 

He's going to be here for quite a while 

Posted (edited)

McDermott is not going anywhere.  I don’t understand this post.  Yes Dennison will be fired at the end of the year but McDermott is the face of the Bills we are still in the playoff hunt.  Football in December for the Bills in the playoff hunt is awesome.  We could have vice lombardi coaching the Bills and people would still complain.  Again, who would make you happy coaching the bills.  Jon Gruden is never coming to Buffalo 

Edited by Dunkirk Don
Posted

Complete bull ****.  Dennison may not last, but McDermott is doing a fine job and is here for the long haul.  Better get used to him cuz he ain't going anywhere.

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