So, 4-12 predictors...how's that working out?

[PABillsfan23]

54 minutes ago, vincec said:

Exactly. The Jags don't even have a good QB and they are 7-3 and playoff bound. There is no one way.

Rarely does this happen.. it’s not the norm by any means.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

That's because they lost a lot and built one of the most talented rosters in the NFL.  A franchise QB on that team would go undefeated.

 

They wouldn't be where they are without tanking

Campbell was a very nice free agent addition too.

 

Well run teams can get back to the playoffs without sucking for 5-10 years. But since we are not one of those we should probably try the route that teams like Detroit, LA Rams and Jacksonville have taken. Then again we might just end up being like the Browns and never make the playoffs despite all the sucking.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Campbell was a very nice free agent addition too.

 

Well run teams can get back to the playoffs without sucking for 5-10 years. But since we are not one of those we should probably try the route that teams like Detroit, LA Rams and Jacksonville have taken. Then again we might just end up being like the Browns and never make the playoffs despite all the sucking.

 

 

Detroit?    They tanked 10 years ago to get Stafford and are still a .500 type team.

 

Jax has been in the basement for a long time but they have spent tons in FA in recent years and face serious cap issues in the very near future.

 

As do the LA Rams........who didn't tank to get Goff.......they traded up to get him.......then took a brief step back from 5 years of mediocrity to develop Goff.........then fired the regime that drafted him.......and hired an offensive minded HC and loaded up in FA to support Goff.    

 

If the Rams are an example it's that regime continuity only matters if the coaches and GM are worth keeping.   After an eternity with Fisher they've turned it around in 1 year with a new coach.

[OCinBuffalo]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I'm not quoting BADO....the board seems broken: I'm just trying to add a new post....to my illustrious thread...which is:

 

So, 5-11 predictors....how's that working out?

 

Clowns! Rather than quoting myself, I'll just say: when you play at a D1 level or above, you know that things can swing, HUGE, from one game to the next. You can ask every Bills player, but, it's doubtful you'll find a definitive answer as to why we ran/stopped the run so well this game, as opposed to the last 3.

Edited November 26, 2017 by OCinBuffalo

[stinky finger]

16 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

I'm not quoting BADO....the board seems broken: I'm just trying to add a new post....to my illustrious thread...which is:

 

So, 5-11 predictors....how's that working out?

 

Clowns! Rather than quoting myself, I'll just say: when you play at a D1 level or above, you know that things can swing, HUGE, from one game to the next. You can ask every Bills player, but, it's doubtful you'll find a definitive answer as to why we ran/stopped the run so well this game, as opposed to the last 3.

I'm quite sure some here will give definitive answers. 

[Real McClappy]

17 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

I'm not quoting BADO....the board seems broken: I'm just trying to add a new post....to my illustrious thread...which is:

 

So, 5-11 predictors....how's that working out?

 

Clowns! Rather than quoting myself, I'll just say: when you play at a D1 level or above, you know that things can swing, HUGE, from one game to the next. You can ask every Bills player, but, it's doubtful you'll find a definitive answer as to why we ran/stopped the run so well this game, as opposed to the last 3.

 

[OCinBuffalo]

On 11/23/2017 at 12:55 PM, cba fan said:

You make no sense.

 

Bills can't stop the run or run on most teams now.

 

They will be lucky to win one more game so 5 win season is a very distinct possibility. Prognosticating 4 wins and team ending with 5 is right on the money.

"right on the money"

 

Which...

Is exactly why I have been taking big $$$ off you, and people like you, for decades. People like you bet against all probability...for reasons passing all understanding. This is like watching some loser in Atlantic City pot-commit himself with a 2 and a 7 in his hand. Once again: IF you don't understand probability, you should never gamble, ever.

 

So now, without any "luck" you are already wrong. I'll lay $10k on the Bills getting 1(one) more, non-lucky, win this season, and, I'll give you 3-1 odds. But, I'm sorry: you don't have $10k to gamble, do you? I do: because it's 10k of other people's money that I have taken from them. Thus, I have the $$$ to put where my mouth is. And you have....?

Edited November 26, 2017 by OCinBuffalo

[BringBackOrton]

2 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

"right on the money"

 

Which...

Is exactly why I have been taking big $$$ off you, and people like you, for decades. People like you bet against all probability...for reasons passing all understanding. This is like watching some loser in Atlantic City pot-commit himself with a 2 and a 7 in his hand. Once again: IF you don't understand probability, you should never gamble, ever.

 

So now, without any "luck" you are already wrong. I'll lay $10k on the Bills getting 1(one) more, non-lucky, win this season, and, I'll give you 3-1 odds. But, I'm sorry: you don't have $10k to gamble, do you? I do. Thus, I have the $$$ to put where my mouth is. And you have....?

I'm pretty sure you haven't posted here in the last 2 weeks.  Way to put the money where your mouth is, clown.

[OCinBuffalo]

2 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

I'm pretty sure you haven't posted here in the last 2 weeks.  Way to put the money where your mouth is, clown.

And you'd be wrong.

 

Check the history, clown. 

 

I replied to this thread, one page ago.. 

 

EDIT: ****....I should have bet you. But, I guess after a big Bills win...I'm less inclined to relieve suckers from their $$$$

Edited November 26, 2017 by OCinBuffalo

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

And you'd be wrong.

 

Check the history, clown. 

 

I replied to this thread, one page ago.. 

Ohhh so you only disappeared for 10 days and two Bills losses in blowouts.

 

You got me.

Edited November 26, 2017 by jmc12290

[OCinBuffalo]

Just now, jmc12290 said:

Ohhh so you only disappeared for 10 days and two Bills losses in blowouts.

 

You got me.

Ohhh so you talked smack....

 

and now you're trying to play it off? I didn't resurrect this thread. I replied to it's resurrection. 

 

And, I was right, for like the 500th time on this board, all time. You can step off, because you're never gonna talk your way out.

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Ohhh so you talked smack....

 

and now you're trying to play it off? I didn't resurrect this thread. I replied to it's resurrection. 

 

And, I was right, for like the 500th time on this board, all time. You can step off, because you're never gonna talk your way out.

But can you tell me if you've ever played at a D1 level?

[OCinBuffalo]

Just now, jmc12290 said:

But can you tell me if you've ever played at a D1 level?

I already did.

 

Can you tell me how you can't manage to read the previous page of a thread before posting?

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

I already did.

 

Can you tell me how you can't manage to read the previous page of a thread before posting?

Are you sure?  Maybe throw it out there another time, just in case.  

[OCinBuffalo]

1 minute ago, jmc12290 said:

Are you sure?  Maybe throw it out there another time, just in case.  

Yeah. This is where I have a choice: you've already been done. You have nowhere to go. I can keep crushing you, or, I can go to the bar.

 

I choose bar, because unlike in other situations: you're not going to learn anything from me continuing this discussion. I was never going to learn anything from you: thus it's pointless.

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Yeah. This is where I have a choice: you've already been done. You have nowhere to go. I can keep crushing you, or, I can go to the bar.

 

I choose bar, because unlike in other situations: you're not going to learn anything from me continuing this discussion. I was never going to learn anything from you: thus it's pointless.

You shouldn't drink when you're angry.  Didn't you learn anything as a former D1 athlete? 

[Koko78]

On 10/30/2017 at 6:07 AM, T-Bomb said:

I said 5 win team, I'm not wrong yet.

 

You are now.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

its getting fuzzier today 

[T-Bomb]

14 hours ago, Koko78 said:

 

You are now.

 

Yep, lasted until week 12, not bad.

 

 

[OCinBuffalo]

Just so I don't get accused of de facto....

 

I ask you now: where are the 4-12 predictors going to be, if the Bills DOUBLE their "predicted" win total? (See: 8 wins)

 

As I've said since MAY 2016....the "predictors based on 'math'" people are in a lot of trouble. Look at the words above my avatar: ask yourself, where is their credibility, and why should we believe people who utterly failed at predictive political modeling, about sports propensity?

 

See, clowns, this entire thread has been an effort to attract and confront those who are analytically ignorant. Anyone calling me arrogant? You are merely staring into the ignorant mirror: and it's confusing you. At this point the highest propensity the Bills have is 8-8....which...is the bell curve approach I referred to pages ago, when the Bills were 5-5. This is not arrogance: it's math. You don't get to call me arrogant for educating you on the tenets of statistics.

 

And finally: This is a subset of what I do, but, it's one of my more important skill sets. If we were talking about plumbing, I wouldn't call a plumber speaking directly about why he chose to sweat pipe here/make a joint/place a valve, arrogant. I'd say he was doing his job, then explaining it.

 

That's what I am doing...then explaining it.  You were ignorant before you posted. All I have done is merely try to give you a sense of how one correctly goes about creating a predictive model.

 

EDIT: Well, lets cut the crap. I've been a homer Bills fan who has delighted in crushing the "realists" this season. But, as we've seen the last 24 months, and are absolutely guaranteed to see over the next 12? The "realists' are actually delusional. Events have overtaken their claims, in life, in general. I would spend more time in Elmwood Village confronting the "realists", about all sorts of things, like the stock market, the GDP, the Bills record, etc., ...but...I can do more good ignoring them and continuing my daily activities in the real world...that the "realists" deny. Hey, that's why I don't post as much anymore.

Edited December 15, 2017 by OCinBuffalo