The Frankish Reich Posted November 5, 2017 Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/1/2017 at 7:32 PM, 26CornerBlitz said: @PFF Win-Loss predictions for every NFL team https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-nfl-win-predictions-for-all-32-teams-over-the-rest-of-the-season With the midpoint of the season approaching, it’s time to run the PFF analytics on what the rest of the season will look like. Using our PFF data we are going to project wins for every NFL team with input from the grading as well as strength of schedule going forward. These wins are rooted heavily in our data that produces the PFFELO rankings each week, and has proven to have a very strong indicator to win probability. So here is where we have every team projected by the end of the season. (5-2) BUFFALO BILLS: 9.9 WINS Strength of Schedule to date: 18th Remaining Strength of Schedule: 16th The Bills are 5-2 right now and 4-1 over their past five games, and while getting to 10 wins would be doubling their win total, it would see them lose twice the number of games down the stretch as they have lost to date. This is still a team in flux, as their multiple moves around the trade deadline shows. That's why the Jets game was such a killer - this projection came before that game happened, and PFF probably had the Bills with about a 75% chance of beating the Jets. For the same reason the 538.com projected wins slipped from 9.6 to 8.7 following the Jets game. Because it came in Game 8, it won't be remembered with those other classic season killers (2004 loss to the Steelers' second team, etc.), but it really was that critical.
26CornerBlitz Posted November 5, 2017 Author Posted November 5, 2017 Just now, The Frankish Reich said: That's why the Jets game was such a killer - this projection came before that game happened, and PFF probably had the Bills with about a 75% chance of beating the Jets. For the same reason the 538.com projected wins slipped from 9.6 to 8.7 following the Jets game. Because it came in Game 8, it won't be remembered with those other classic season killers (2004 loss to the Steelers' second team, etc.), but it really was that critical. A win at home vs. the NOS will change that projection.
The Frankish Reich Posted November 5, 2017 Posted November 5, 2017 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: A win at home vs. the NOS will change that projection. A bit, yes, but that's close to a pick-em game (which was right where it was at until this weekend's games), so the NO game was probably baked into the projections cake as ~ .5 wins already ...
JM57 Posted November 6, 2017 Posted November 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: That's why the Jets game was such a killer - this projection came before that game happened, and PFF probably had the Bills with about a 75% chance of beating the Jets. For the same reason the 538.com projected wins slipped from 9.6 to 8.7 following the Jets game. Because it came in Game 8, it won't be remembered with those other classic season killers (2004 loss to the Steelers' second team, etc.), but it really was that critical. No it wasn't that critical. They have SEVEN conference games left, four of which are in the division. If they don't get in this year, it will be because they couldn't take care of business down the stretch in winnable conference games.
MAJBobby Posted November 6, 2017 Posted November 6, 2017 Just ran the way i think season ends losses: Saints, NE, KC, NE 9-7 get in 75% of the time.
MAJBobby Posted November 6, 2017 Posted November 6, 2017 This is fun to play with. I wanted to see what a stealing a Pats game does. So I ran it with: Loss to NO Win LA Loss to KC Win Pats Win Indy Win MIA Bills are 98% to make the playoffs
26CornerBlitz Posted November 6, 2017 Author Posted November 6, 2017 ESPN: NFL Playoff Picture: Bills Holding on to Wild-Card Spot Quote The Bills have had a strong first half but have a brutal stretch coming up. If they can make it through their tough schedule, Buffalo will deserve to be in the playoff race.
Boatdrinks Posted November 6, 2017 Posted November 6, 2017 The Bills lost their " wiggle room" playoff wise by falling to the Jets. If you eliminate their likely losses to KC and New England (x2) , all others now fall into the " must win" category to reach the magic number of 10 victories. The Jets game was really huge in the big picture. Vs NO would have been the one the Bills could drop with little consequence to their playoff chances.
26CornerBlitz Posted November 6, 2017 Author Posted November 6, 2017 Fact or fiction: Who's the team to beat? Adam Schein confronts some harsh NFL truths: Are the Eagles really the league's best team? Are the Chiefs still a contender? Will the Rams hang on to the NFC West? See what he has to say after Week 9. 9) The Buffalo Bills will snap their 17-season playoff drought. I'm saying fact, -- though last Thursday night looked like Rex Ryan's Bills, with the irresponsible penalties and turnovers. And the schedule isn't kind over the next four weeks: -- vs. Saints -- at Chargers -- at Chiefs -- vs. Patriots But the sked lightens up down the stretch. And I still believe in Sean McDermott. I also loved the Kelvin Benjamin deal. These Bills (5-3) are poised to hit the playoffs for the first time since the 1999 campaign.
Scott7975 Posted November 6, 2017 Posted November 6, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 12:08 AM, Billsmisery said: Sucks that we could end up w a better record than Jax or Ten and still get a worse seed. Well the 2010 Seachickens went 7-9 and had a home playoff game against the 11-5 Saints. Think about how that felt lol.
MTBill Posted November 6, 2017 Posted November 6, 2017 If I missed this being posted here, sorry. This is the site I like looking at for playoff chances and analytics - it extends well beyond the NFL 1
MDH Posted November 7, 2017 Posted November 7, 2017 21 hours ago, Boatdrinks said: The Bills lost their " wiggle room" playoff wise by falling to the Jets. If you eliminate their likely losses to KC and New England (x2) , all others now fall into the " must win" category to reach the magic number of 10 victories. The Jets game was really huge in the big picture. Vs NO would have been the one the Bills could drop with little consequence to their playoff chances. 9 wins will get it done this year. If the Bills can beat Miami x2 and Indy they likely need just one more win to get in. If that win is the Chargers all the better as it would eliminate pretty much all competition from the AFC west as the Bills would have tiebreakers over all of them. Punching those wins into the NYT playoff machine gives the Bills an 88% chance at the playoffs at 9-7.
eball Posted November 7, 2017 Posted November 7, 2017 All I know is that 13-3 almost guarantees the #1 overall seed.
TheFunPolice Posted November 7, 2017 Posted November 7, 2017 The division is totally in the Bills hands. Beat NE twice and only lose 1 more and it's yours.
Marty McFly Posted November 8, 2017 Posted November 8, 2017 We can def get in with the right 9-7 record. This team has the potential of going 10-6 too. We also have a floor of 7-9 Better than we all thought before week 1 tho.
26CornerBlitz Posted November 8, 2017 Author Posted November 8, 2017 Battle for the AFC's last spot: Who wins the 6th seed? (2:57) NFL Network's Reggie Wayne and Shaun O'Hara discuss whether the Buffalo Bills or Miami Dolphins will end up with the AFC's 6th seed.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 9, 2017 Posted November 9, 2017 2 to 3 more weeks until ESPN's machine comes back online
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