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NFL playoff scenarios: What's at stake in Week 16

Bills could drop with a win

Yup, you read that right. Buffalo could upset the Patriots and still fall from their current spot as the AFC's No. 6 seed if the Ravens win at home Saturday night against the Colts. The Ravens and Bills would both have 9-6 records, but the Ravens would have the advantage based on the common-games tiebreaker (minimum four games) that wouldn't kick in until this week. That tiebreaker quirk is a big part of why FPI gives the Bills a 28 percent chance to make the playoffs, while the Ravens are at 92 percent. Another reason: the Ravens finish with home games against the Colts and Bengals, while the Bills play at the Patriots and then at Miami in Week 17.

 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

NFL playoff scenarios: What's at stake in Week 16

Bills could drop with a win

Yup, you read that right. Buffalo could upset the Patriots and still fall from their current spot as the AFC's No. 6 seed if the Ravens win at home Saturday night against the Colts. The Ravens and Bills would both have 9-6 records, but the Ravens would have the advantage based on the common-games tiebreaker (minimum four games) that wouldn't kick in until this week. That tiebreaker quirk is a big part of why FPI gives the Bills a 28 percent chance to make the playoffs, while the Ravens are at 92 percent. Another reason: the Ravens finish with home games against the Colts and Bengals, while the Bills play at the Patriots and then at Miami in Week 17.

 

 

Not true. The Titans would be the odd man out even if the Titans won against the Rams.

Edited by What a Tuel
Posted
14 hours ago, What a Tuel said:

 

Welp so long as we are writing off wins. The Patriots have only beaten the Saints, Falcons and cheated the Steelers or the Texans (can't have both). Otherwise they lost to the Chiefs, Panthers, Dolphins. And beat several "undeserved" teams such as the 4-10 Bucs, 5-9 Jets, 7-7 Chargers, 5-9 Broncos, 6-8 Raiders, 6-8 Dolphins.

 

TLDR: The Patriots only really beat two good teams all year.

 

and they beat the Bills so thats 3 real wins to none.  And when the Bills go 10 and 6 it will look even better!!!

Posted
4 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

COLTS   RAVENS 

 

Baltimore weather is expected to be in the upper 50’s and 60% rain. 

 

Who has the better run game? 

 

Better question is who has the better run D. Baltimore, no question. 

Posted
5 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Common opponents is the key and that's why winning the week 17 Dolphins game is a must. https://www.thescore.com/news/1450344

 

Yes but the article seems to be referring to solely week 16. In the end of week 16 if all 3 teams win, titans would be odd man out. Baltimore would take 5th seed from titans and bills would retain 6th seed not lose it.

Posted
10 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

Yes but the article seems to be referring to solely week 16. In the end of week 16 if all 3 teams win, titans would be odd man out. Baltimore would take 5th seed from titans and bills would retain 6th seed not lose it.

 

I can't swear this is 100% accurate, but it looks right, after a quick analysis:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/12/18/16792052/every-scenario-for-the-buffalo-bills-to-make-the-playoffs-2017-longest-playoff-drought

 

 

Quote

 

If Bills go 10-6

If Buffalo wins both of their remaining games, it’s very straightforward. They need one of the teams they are tied with to lose. Los Angeles won’t come into play because the best they can do is 9-7. Buffalo only needs one of these to happen because they can’t win a four-way tie at 10-6:

  • Bills win two games + Baltimore loses/ties at least one game

- or -

  • Bills win two games + Tennessee loses/ties at least one game

- or -

  • Bills win two games + Jaguars win/tie one game

If Bills go 9-7

This is the most convoluted because there are a host of potential outcomes. We’re making it as easy as we can. Buffalo needs TWO of these to happen:

  • Bills beat Miami + Baltimore loses/ties a game
  • Bills win one game + Tennessee loses/ties to Jacksonville
  • Bills win one game + Los Angeles loses/ties one game
  • Bills win one game + Los Angeles wins two games + Kansas City loses two games

If Bills go 8-8

This one is straightforward but messy. Lots of games have to go Buffalo’s way for them to slide in the back door:

  • Baltimore loses to Indianapolis and Cincinnati + Miami loses to Kansas City + Los Angeles loses one game

 

  •  
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Steptide said:

Serious question, if the titans lose twice, why is that bad for us?

 

Because the most likely outcome is that the Ravens go 10-6 and us and the Chargers go 9-7. If the Titans lose out we lose the head to head tiebreaker to Chargers. If Tennessee goes 9-7 as long as they don't beat the Jags, we win the three way tiebreaker. 

 

That being said, a Chargers and Titans loss would be best. It just isn't likely.

Edited by Big C
Posted
3 minutes ago, Big C said:

 

Because the most likely outcome is that the Ravens go 10-6 and us and the Chargers go 9-7. If the Titans lose out we lose the head to head tiebreaker to Chargers. If Tennessee goes 9-7 as long as they don't beat the Jags, we win the three way tiebreaker. 

 

That being said, a Chargers and Titans loss would be best. It just isn't likely.

 

I could see the Chargers losing tommorow 

Posted
1 minute ago, Steptide said:

 

I could see the Chargers losing tommorow 

 

I could too. However, if the Titans go 9-7, as long as the win is this week and not next week, we jump them in the standings. Mainly, root for the Bills and against the Chargers.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Chicharito said:

Our playoff lives just died with this ravens win! Charges will jump us win a win against the jets and our lose to the pats! 

 

Bad at math? Or just a defeatist?

Posted
30 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

Bad at math? Or just a defeatist?

 

I'd say they are just a defeatist. As for your link, I know the scenarios, i was just pointing out that the article was so quick to kick us out of the 6th seed after week 16 even with a patriots win. The titans are in that situation not us.

 

Of course week 17 changes everything but the article literally said "even with a bills win against the patriots, the bills are out "

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Chicharito said:

Our playoff lives just died with this ravens win! Charges will jump us win a win against the jets and our lose to the pats! 

 

You're right. Season's over. Empty the lockers. Run for the bus. See you around draft time. Buh-bye.

Edited by PromoTheRobot
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