BigPappy Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 Same thing that was said last year was it not???? And what did he do??? Sorry he is not worth an 18M cap hit. Now i know you have been around long enough to know that what a QB's worth has nothing to do with how much he gets paid. Elite QB's are making 25 Million + a year and your so - so to pretty good QB's are making around 14 - 20 million a year. Are they worth that much, I don't think so, but they are just good enough to manage games and not screw up to big so that's what there getting paid.
Wayne Arnold Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 (edited) Could have been anybody. After all - it is pure luck that he did that. It wasn't pure luck that he did it. However, to expect that same play to happen again the next game and on and on is foolishness. If just over half of the turnover differential is luck - then what is responsible for the other "just under half" - The point is that sustaining anything that requires over 50% luck is impossible on a long-term (beyond a few games) basis. Edited October 24, 2017 by Wayne Arnold
PolishDave Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 It wasn't pure luck that he did it. Wayne's world! Party time! Excellent!
zow2 Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 Tyrod looked like Steve Young this weekend when compared to some of the awful QB play around the league this past Sunday.. We are fortunate to have him.
yungmack Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 He will stay until the offseason and only come back if he redoes his contract yet again.If Beane tries that, TT's gone. There are at least 6 teams by my count that will eagerly pursue him, including one that may be a big surprise. Just look around the league and the collection of QBs starting for at least a third of the teams.
Wayne Arnold Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 What does that have to do with my point though? They are saying it is lucky from reading the conclusion on a year to year basis. Does it mention that teams that make the playoffs and go to the super bowl generally have a good turnover differential? Year to year. Or game to game. Or quarter to quarter. Etc. It's all dependent on over 50% luck. Yes, teams that have good turnover differential win more. Obviously. That's not the point.
Manther Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 Maybe you forgot about that incredible Rex & Rob Ryan defense last year. I think they called it "bend but don't split your pants."Hahahaid imagine they would and could franchise tag Tyrod for one more season and he would take the opportunity to showcase himself. Much like Alex Smith this seasonHe is under contract next year...we can not opt out and then franchise him.
billsfan60 Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 I haven't seen the all 22, but Tyrod still missed some wide open recievers. One in particular was a deep pass to Thompson. While he completed the pass, their was a reciever (Holmes maybe?) that had his man beaten and would've probably been a td. I'm good with Tyrod for now, but again he's missing big plays The way I understand it, Tyrod has a history with Thompson and just maybe he had more confidence in completing the pass to him than Holmes.
John from Riverside Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 Pump the breaks chief. We were 4-2 last year as well then Taylor turned into guano. Game.....why do you feel the need to crap in every thread...why?
BillsFan130 Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 (edited) Year to year. Or game to game. Or quarter to quarter. Etc. It's all dependent on over 50% luck. Yes, teams that have good turnover differential win more. Obviously. That's not the point. I personally don't think it's all luck. Is there some? For sure. But there is no fluke that good and great QBs like Brady or a rod or even Alex Smith don't turn the ball over consistently compared to QBs like Cutler or Bortles. The common correlation there? Teams with good QBs who don't turn the ball over alot make the playoffs every year and teams with QBs who turn the ball over consistently don't make the playoffs Edited October 24, 2017 by billsfan11
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 The way I understand it, Tyrod has a history with Thompson and just maybe he had more confidence in completing the pass to him than Holmes. Thompson has practiced enough with Tyrod that he understands what Tyrod wants to do as plays develop. This allows him to make himself available more effectively as plays break down. I suspect the others will get better with this as time goes on, but it's already there with DT.
John from Riverside Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 Ahh yes the great passer who received a 10 million dollar reduction in salary. Where in any of the above posts does it say that Tyrod is even a great passer? Why do you continue to twist **** to fit your agenda
NickelCity Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 I think we have a special team here, but I too look at the schedule and see most as tight games. I'm not sure that's a recipe for more than 50/50 wins/losses, but I think playoffs are at least possible. Finally.
Manther Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 I actually think TT is safer running and sliding than he is in the pocket...seems this dude gets sacked hard a lot more than he gets hit upfieldI agree
JM2009 Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 (edited) Game.....why do you feel the need to crap in every thread...why? Could Game be Crusher re-incarnated? Edited October 24, 2017 by JM2009
billykaykay Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 The way I understand it, Tyrod has a history with Thompson and just maybe he had more confidence in completing the pass to him than Holmes. I don't want to hijack the thread but had a question & didn't want to start a thread for it. On the 44 yd pass to DT, he was the recipient of an illegal hit. What would be the call if, as a result of the illegal hit, DT then lost control going to the ground. Is it still a catch & a penalty? Or is it an incomplete pass & just the 15 yd penalty? A similar situation happens when a DE jumps the snap & is zooming in on the QB & the OL holds him to protect the QB. This is called off setting penalties. It seems to me that the hold should be waved off as it was the direct result of the DL leaving early with a bead on the QB. What do you guys think ?
section122 Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 Especially when the example he cites is Tyrod missing a better option while completing a pass. Every QB misses those throws. The plays he misses more than anyone else are open receivers while he is running around not throwing it. One of my favourite plays this week was the miss to Taiwan Jones in the endzone where Jones checked his route. That is a play that in previous years Tyrod would have missed while scampering and maybe getting the 1st down. But standing there and throwing was the RIGHT play. That is progress. I agree. It looked like Taiwan slowed down for a split second too on that play. I really liked the designed runs showing up again in this game. I really don't like bootlegs where he rolls left as I don't know if he has completed one yet this year doing it. There is certainly some progress there in throwing to the middle, utilizing tes, going through progressions, etc... I hope people watched the 9 teams in the league that didn't score an offensive td this week to point out all of the missed throws by those qbs. Or perhaps the 7 attempts by Trubisky. I had Tyrod about 20th best qb in the league coming into the year and he is moving up. I would be interested to see you do a mid-season update of your list that you had last season (offseason maybe?). I haven't listed them out yet myself but I think Tyrod is trending in the right direction so far this year.
Scott7975 Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/ Conclusion in case you don't want to spend the time reading it: So after a few hundred words of statistics, we arrive at a whopping conclusion that just over half of seasonal turnover differential is due to luck. Thats huge, especially when you consider that (from earlier) seasonal turnover differential explains over 40% of seasonal winning percentage. At first glance, this does seem very high to me but evidence for this magnitude is the extraordinary year-to-year variability in turnover differential, which you would expect if luck was a mega factor as my analysis suggests. While starting quarterbacks absolutely play a role in turnover differential (Tom Brady throws fewer picks than Chad Henne) and tend to be fairly constant from year-to-year, nevertheless the correlation between turnover differential last year and this year is only 0.086 which is not significant at the 5% level. Ultimately in a 16-game season, theres just a whole lot of luck involved with winning football games and for all that commentators will talk about defensive schemes forcing turnovers this season, its just as important to be lucky as to be good. I guess KC is one lucky team then. They have lead the league the last two years. Oakland won a lot of games last year. They were at the top last year. Who else at the top? Last season Atlanta was in top 5 with KC and Oakland and the Pats. Year before Carolina and the Pats. Year before Seattle and the Pats. See any correlation there?
section122 Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 I guess KC is one lucky team then. They have lead the league the last two years. Oakland won a lot of games last year. They were at the top last year. Who else at the top? Last season Atlanta was in top 5 with KC and Oakland and the Pats. Year before Carolina and the Pats. Year before Seattle and the Pats. See any correlation there? Yeah I think the nuance is being missed that although they are lucky to occur according to the study year to year they certainly have much to do with team success. It even acknowledges qb's not throwing ints as a good thing.
billykaykay Posted October 24, 2017 Posted October 24, 2017 I haven't seen the all 22, but Tyrod still missed some wide open recievers. One in particular was a deep pass to Thompson. While he completed the pass, their was a reciever (Holmes maybe?) that had his man beaten and would've probably been a td. I'm good with Tyrod for now, but again he's missing big plays With the 2-3 seconds a QB has, they all miss open receivers more often than we think.
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