Drought will end: Taylor is here to stay.......for now

[moshermw]

This is a common refrain, but I dont think there is any evidence to support it. What is true, though, is that QBs like Taylor become much less effective when they lose a step or two, whereas guys like the Mannings, Brady, and Big Ben seemingly can go on forever.

Agreed - specifically for TT.

 

His style of play in college was the same and he started every game there he was asked to. And he's started 36 out of 38 NFL games he's been asked to (1 in Balt) playing the same style.

 

He's very aware and smart about avoiding getting hit hard. Does a great job of getting out of bounds, down, or protecting himself if he's going to be hit. He's also a gym rat and very tough guy.

 

He's in his prime physically these next 2 years - after that - who knows.

 

For now there's no reason to think he can't be the QB that breaks the Playoff drought. If the D stays Top 5 and the WR/TE corps makes it to NFL average after the '18 draft, he (with Shady) is talented enough to take the Bills to a Super Bowl.

[mead107]

14-2 Baby

[Malazan]

Wait, we don't like parity? huh?

[PolishDave]

IMO posters need to stop propping him up, make him work harder to get our respect back, the fans deserve more from the most important position in football. He is working extra hard I want him to keep getting better, can Tyrod do it? We will see. Go Bills

 

lol..

 

What does it hurt exactly, besides your feelings?

 

Just classic.

[Wayne Arnold]

Turnover differential is not sustainable. Whether good or bad.

 

/thread

[Scott7975]

Turnover differential is not sustainable. Whether good or bad.

 

/thread

Tell that to KC who has won a lot of regular season games over the last few years primarily because of turnover differential.

[It's in My Blood]

If your not optimistic and excited about this team, then you have ice in your veins.

 

We're seeing a legitimate football team in action.

[PolishDave]

Tell that to KC who has won a lot of regular season games over the last few years primarily because of turnover differential.

 

Yes. Teams can actually be coached and built so that they are predisposed to committing less of them and causing more of them. How many times is a ball carrier allowed to fumble in New England before he is sent packing? How is it that Trey White doesn't deserve full credit for causing and recovering the fumble late in the last game. That wasn't an accident or pure luck. A little lucky perhaps, but coaching and intention above and beyond anything else.

[BillsFan130]

Turnover differential is not sustainable. Whether good or bad.

 

/thread

Saints won a Super Bowl mostly because they led the NFL in turnovers, and also picked off Favre 5 times in the championship game, and Peyton Manning a couple times in the super bowl.

 

Not many good teams have a bad turnover differential

[Bills757]

I agree the best way for Tyrod to do well is running...but

 

A running QB is at bigger risk for injury it's why they were pushing him to learn to stay in the pocket more, it's working now and hopefully he will stay healthy but when you push this risk more and more odds go up to get hit more and more.

 

They need to stay on course and draft a top QB in 2018, NE drafts QBs all the time while having a HOF type QB. I am all in on this staff if they draft a top QB in 2018, if they avoid it I see them not lasting and will lose my respect. The only way I would give Tyrod a raise at the end of this year is if he got us to the SB, if he sticks around his contract pays more anyway so no need to adjust it, playoffs 2 years in a row ok then let's talk. A lucky wild card birth with a 1st round loss any backup type QB could get lucky with for one season if all goes your way in a season.

 

I have one leg on the Tyrod wagon in hopes he can get better, this last game helped but you know its Tyrod he has let us down many, many times. He still has a big hill to climb. IMO

 

IMO posters need to stop propping him up, make him work harder to get our respect back, the fans deserve more from the most important position in football. He is working extra hard I want him to keep getting better, can Tyrod do it? We will see. Go Bills

 

Fair post IMO. I've been on the band wagon since the start....not proclaiming him to be the long term solution....merely pointing out that he's the best we've got right now and has shown improvement. I agree.....you draft a top QB (without giving away the farm), build the Oline (which is critical IMO) and address the skill WR corps considering the current group is not that good. As you pointed out, even NE drafts QB's.....because if you're not looking ahead, you can put the franchise in a bad situation.

 

TT is like a good job with benefits, nice retirement, stable environment with certain perks that you don't find at many companies. Is it your dream job? Maybe not but it's not a bad place to be right now given other jobs (QB's) you see in other places. You don't quit a job like this until the right job offer (player) comes around....and you certainly don't quit a job without having another job in hand. That's where I am right now with TT. Good player that works hard, doesn't turn it over and has earned a ton of respect from his teammates and coaches. But if the right guy becomes available in the draft (or through a trade) and assuming TT can't step up his game to get the Bills to the playoffs and win, that's the right time to make the transition/change.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

The QB could not run it so therefore the OC had to implement a specific type of offense the QB can execute for this year

What a crazy thought

[PolishDave]

Saints won a Super Bowl mostly because they led the NFL in turnovers, and also picked off Favre 5 times in the championship game, and Peyton Manning a couple times in the super bowl.

 

Not many good teams have a bad turnover differential

 

Also, recall a game from earlier this season where a Bill defender (can't remember who) returned a fumble for a touchdown while the offense stood around thinking maybe it wasn't a fumble. Yet no refs blew the whistle. End result was extra 6 points for Buffalo.

 

When asked about it - they commented how turnovers are a huge focus in practice. This player said they just did what cam naturally by scooping and returning the ball because it has been drilled into them in practice with McDermott as the head coach.

[Wayne Arnold]

Tell that to KC who has won a lot of regular season games over the last few years primarily because of turnover differential.

 

 

Yes. Teams can actually be coached and built so that they are predisposed to committing less of them and causing more of them. How many times is a ball carrier allowed to fumble in New England before he is sent packing? How is it that Trey White doesn't deserve full credit for causing and recovering the fumble late in the last game. That wasn't an accident or pure luck. A little lucky perhaps, but coaching and intention above and beyond anything else.

 

Saints won a Super Bowl mostly because they led the NFL in turnovers, and also picked off Favre 5 times in the championship game, and Peyton Manning a couple times in the super bowl.

 

Not many good teams have a bad turnover differential

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/

 

Conclusion in case you don't want to spend the time reading it:

 

So after a few hundred words of statistics, we arrive at a whopping conclusion that just over half of seasonal turnover differential is due to luck. That’s huge, especially when you consider that (from earlier) seasonal turnover differential explains over 40% of seasonal winning percentage.

 

At first glance, this does seem very high to me but evidence for this magnitude is the extraordinary year-to-year variability in turnover differential, which you would expect if luck was a mega factor as my analysis suggests. While starting quarterbacks absolutely play a role in turnover differential (Tom Brady throws fewer picks than Chad Henne) and tend to be fairly constant from year-to-year, nevertheless the correlation between turnover differential last year and this year is only 0.086 which is not significant at the 5% level.

Ultimately in a 16-game season, there’s just a whole lot of luck involved with winning football games and for all that commentators will talk about defensive schemes forcing turnovers this season, it’s just as important to be lucky as to be good.

[billieve420]

Even if the Bills draft a QB in the next draft they aren't going to be rushed in to start. So get set for Taylor for at least another season.

 

Well that depends on what Peterson has shown them in practice. If the coaches think he can step in and replace Tyrod then I would be willing to move on next year. However, that would depend if they are planning to draft a QB early in next year's draft as well.

[BillsFan130]

 

 

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/

 

Conclusion in case you don't want to spend the time reading it:

 

So after a few hundred words of statistics, we arrive at a whopping conclusion that just over half of seasonal turnover differential is due to luck. That’s huge, especially when you consider that (from earlier) seasonal turnover differential explains over 40% of seasonal winning percentage.

 

At first glance, this does seem very high to me but evidence for this magnitude is the extraordinary year-to-year variability in turnover differential, which you would expect if luck was a mega factor as my analysis suggests. While starting quarterbacks absolutely play a role in turnover differential (Tom Brady throws fewer picks than Chad Henne) and tend to be fairly constant from year-to-year, nevertheless the correlation between turnover differential last year and this year is only 0.086 which is not significant at the 5% level.

Ultimately in a 16-game season, there’s just a whole lot of luck involved with winning football games and for all that commentators will talk about defensive schemes forcing turnovers this season, it’s just as important to be lucky as to be good.

What does that have to do with my point though? They are saying it is lucky from reading the conclusion on a year to year basis.

 

Does it mention that teams that make the playoffs and go to the super bowl generally have a good turnover differential?

[GunnerBill]

 

 

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/

 

Conclusion in case you don't want to spend the time reading it:

 

So after a few hundred words of statistics, we arrive at a whopping conclusion that just over half of seasonal turnover differential is due to luck. That’s huge, especially when you consider that (from earlier) seasonal turnover differential explains over 40% of seasonal winning percentage.

 

At first glance, this does seem very high to me but evidence for this magnitude is the extraordinary year-to-year variability in turnover differential, which you would expect if luck was a mega factor as my analysis suggests. While starting quarterbacks absolutely play a role in turnover differential (Tom Brady throws fewer picks than Chad Henne) and tend to be fairly constant from year-to-year, nevertheless the correlation between turnover differential last year and this year is only 0.086 which is not significant at the 5% level.

Ultimately in a 16-game season, there’s just a whole lot of luck involved with winning football games and for all that commentators will talk about defensive schemes forcing turnovers this season, it’s just as important to be lucky as to be good.

 

It was our old guy Jimmy Schwartz who did an in depth study when a staffer for Belichick's Browns that told Bill that fumbles were basically random occurrences and the old adage "good teams don't fumble" was essentially nonsense. There is no correlation between being good and not fumbling. Belichick obviously despite that has never believed him because if you put it on the floor he benches you. But you are right... there is lots of evidence out there now that supports Jim's theory.

[PolishDave]

 

 

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/

 

Conclusion in case you don't want to spend the time reading it:

 

So after a few hundred words of statistics, we arrive at a whopping conclusion that just over half of seasonal turnover differential is due to luck. That’s huge, especially when you consider that (from earlier) seasonal turnover differential explains over 40% of seasonal winning percentage.

 

At first glance, this does seem very high to me but evidence for this magnitude is the extraordinary year-to-year variability in turnover differential, which you would expect if luck was a mega factor as my analysis suggests. While starting quarterbacks absolutely play a role in turnover differential (Tom Brady throws fewer picks than Chad Henne) and tend to be fairly constant from year-to-year, nevertheless the correlation between turnover differential last year and this year is only 0.086 which is not significant at the 5% level.

Ultimately in a 16-game season, there’s just a whole lot of luck involved with winning football games and for all that commentators will talk about defensive schemes forcing turnovers this season, it’s just as important to be lucky as to be good.

 

If just over half of the turnover differential is luck - then what is responsible for the other "just under half" -

[Rubes]

 

Also, recall a game from earlier this season where a Bill defender (can't remember who) returned a fumble for a touchdown while the offense stood around thinking maybe it wasn't a fumble. Yet no refs blew the whistle. End result was extra 6 points for Buffalo.

 

When asked about it - they commented how turnovers are a huge focus in practice. This player said they just did what cam naturally by scooping and returning the ball because it has been drilled into them in practice with McDermott as the head coach.

 

That was...Tre White! Of course it was.

[PolishDave]

 

That was...Tre White! Of course it was.

 

Could have been anybody. After all - it is pure luck that he did that.

[Rubes]

 

Could have been anybody. After all - it is pure luck that he did that.