Some perspective on Taylor's season so far with a look ahead

[transplantbillsfan]

Let's be honest, the Bills have faced a muderer's row of defenses to start the season. Cincy, Denver, Carolina and Atlanta are all great to Elite defenses. All are in the top 10 and Cincy, Denver, and Carolina are in the top 4. They are also very good passing defenses sitting at #2, #6, #7 and #12.

And before anyone just says "well they look great because Taylor's numbers skewed the raw data so they look better than they are..."

Let me give you a list of the common QBs those 4 teams have played that most would say are better or head & shoulders better than Taylor:

Joe Flacco
Deshaun Watson
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Phillip Rivers
Dak Prescott
Derek Carr
Tom Brady
Matthew Stafford

There were 11 of those common games. I looked it up and did the math and here's what those QBs averaged per game against those 4 defenses:

22.6/35.3 (64%), 227 yards, 6.4 YPA, 1.8 passing TDs, 0.5 INTs, 93.3 Passer Rating, 2.7 sacks, 18.5 yards lost

4 wins
7 losses

And I think we can all agree that Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are Elite QBs separate from the pack of pretty much every other QB in the NFL, right? Well, if you eliminate the games those guys played, those other 6 guys who most would consider better than Taylor looked like this on a per game basis:

19.1/31.7 (60.3%), 187.4 yards, 5.9 YPA, 1.4 passing TDs, 0.3 INTs, 87.7 Passer Rating, 2.4 sacks, 16.3 yards lost,

2 wins
5 losses


Now here's Taylor's stat line against those same teams:

17.3/27 (64.1%), 172 yards, 6.4 YPA, 1 passing TD. 0.25 INTs, 90.5 Passer Rating, 4 sacks, 19.7 yards lost

2 wins
2 losses


As hypercritical as people are with Taylor's play to start the season, is it really all that bad considering the defenses we've played?

I wouldn't call it great, but he's looked really good against some great defenses, at times. Other great QBs have looked really bad against the same defenses, at times.

Moving forward, the best defense we play are the 'Phins at #11, then the Chargers at #18. After that it's defenses that are currently 24th or worse.

 

Plus, 6 home games vs 5 away games.

Taylor passing at home: 211 YPG, 65% completions, 8.0 YPA, 25 TDs, 9 INTs, team is 11-6

Taylor passing away: 199.5 YPG, 60.4% completions, 6.7 YPA, 18 TDs, 5 INTs, team is 7-10

 

 

I don't think anyone can reasonably expect to start passing for 300+ or probably even 250+ yards per game, but I think we should expect to see a significantly better Taylor than we saw in the first 5 weeks.

 

And if we do and this defense keeps playing the way it has been, this is a playoff team

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I have nothing against Taylor, I just don't think his style of play will ever win us a playoff game.

 

I hope we trade a LT and Taylor for a 1st rd pick to Denver. I still see him putting up the same numbers with much better weapons.

[BringBackOrton]

Let's be honest, the Bills have faced a muderer's row of defenses to start the season. Cincy, Denver, Carolina and Atlanta are all great to Elite defenses. All are in the top 10 and Cincy, Denver, and Carolina are in the top 4. They are also very good passing defenses sitting at #2, #6, #7 and #12.

 

And before anyone just says "well they look great because Taylor's numbers skewed the raw data so they look better than they are..."

 

Let me give you a list of the common QBs those 4 teams have played that most would say are better or head & shoulders better than Taylor:

 

Joe Flacco

Deshaun Watson

Aaron Rodgers

Drew Brees

Phillip Rivers

Dak Prescott

Derek Carr

Tom Brady

Matthew Stafford

 

There were 11 of those common games. I looked it up and did the math and here's what those QBs averaged per game against those 4 defenses:

 

22.6/35.3 (64%), 227 yards, 6.4 YPA, 1.8 passing TDs, 0.5 INTs, 93.3 Passer Rating, 2.7 sacks, 18.5 yards lost

 

4 wins

7 losses

 

And I think we can all agree that Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are Elite QBs separate from the pack of pretty much every other QB in the NFL, right? Well, if you eliminate the games those guys played, those other 6 guys who most would consider better than Taylor looked like this on a per game basis:

 

19.1/31.7 (60.3%), 187.4 yards, 5.9 YPA, 1.4 passing TDs, 0.3 INTs, 87.7 Passer Rating, 2.4 sacks, 16.3 yards lost,

 

2 wins

5 losses

 

 

Now here's Taylor's stat line against those same teams:

 

17.3/27 (64.1%), 172 yards, 6.4 YPA, 1 passing TD. 0.25 INTs, 90.5 Passer Rating, 4 sacks, 19.7 yards lost

 

2 wins

2 losses

 

 

As hypercritical as people are with Taylor's play to start the season, is it really all that bad considering the defenses we've played?

 

I wouldn't call it great, but he's looked really good against some great defenses, at times. Other great QBs have looked really bad against the same defenses, at times.

 

Moving forward, the best defense we play are the 'Phins at #11, then the Chargers at #18. After that it's defenses that are currently 24th or worse.

 

Plus, 6 home games vs 5 away games.

 

Taylor passing at home: 211 YPG, 65% completions, 8.0 YPA, 25 TDs, 9 INTs, team is 11-6

 

Taylor passing away: 199.5 YPG, 60.4% completions, 6.7 YPA, 18 TDs, 5 INTs, team is 7-10

 

 

I don't think anyone can reasonably expect to start passing for 300+ or probably even 250+ yards per game, but I think we should expect to see a significantly better Taylor than we saw in the first 5 weeks.

 

And if we do and this defense keeps playing the way it has been, this is a playoff team

I'm not sure Taylor plays that much better against bad defenses.

[Marty McFly]

Nice stat work. Well see how it plays out. Im surprised how close he matches up with some of those names tho. The majority of those QBs have much better WRs but, aome have worse OLines.

[Game Manager]

We should show these stats to other teams and see if they want to trade qb's.

[HappyDays]

Nice stats work. Long season ahead of us and no reason to give up on Tyrod early. It starts with a really bad pass defense this Sunday.

[transplantbillsfan]

Nice stat work. Well see how it plays out. Im surprised how close he matches up with some of those names tho. The majority of those QBs have much better WRs but, aome have worse OLines.

 

I think it's an indication we really need to pump the brakes on saying Taylor sucks, as some on this board have been proclaiming.

[BringBackOrton]

 

I think it's an indication we really need to pump the brakes on saying Taylor sucks, as some on this board have been proclaiming.

Tyrod Taylor had 179 passing yards against the 32nd defense last year.

Edited October 20, 2017 by jmc12290

[Coach Tuesday]

Hey look, a Tyrod thread!

[QB Bills]

Tyrod Taylor had 179 passing yards against the 32nd defense last year.

And he had better games against better defenses throughout the year too. What's your point?

[BringBackOrton]

 

I don't think anyone can reasonably expect to start passing for 300+ or probably even 250+ yards per game, but I think we should expect to see a significantly better Taylor than we saw in the first 5 weeks.

 

And if we do and this defense keeps playing the way it has been, this is a playoff team

 

 

And he had better games against better defenses throughout the year too. What's your point?

Edited October 21, 2017 by jmc12290

[John from Riverside]

I'm not sure Taylor plays that much better against bad defenses.

We are about to find out

[transplantbillsfan]

Tyrod Taylor had 179 passing yards against the 32nd defense last year.

 

Okay Milton, one game is where you go with this? Really?

 

 

He also had 289 passing yards and one of his best games as a pro against the 5th ranked defense last year.

[BringBackOrton]

 

Okay Milton, one game is where you go with this? Really?

 

 

He also had 289 passing yards and one of his best games as a pro against the 5th ranked defense last year.

That's nice. Not sure what it has to do with this topic.

[transplantbillsfan]

Tyrod Taylor had 179 passing yards against the 32nd defense last year.

 

The 49er game was one of Taylor's better games last year.

 

You realize that, right?

[billsfan60]

Transplant, I always enjoy what you have to say but we've been here before, and I think your optimism is about 45 hours premature.

[BringBackOrton]

 

The 49er game was one of Taylor's better games last year.

 

You realize that, right?

Better is relative. Was it better than the Dolphins game?

[Real McClappy]

 

I think it's an indication we really need to pump the brakes on saying Taylor sucks, as some on this board have been proclaiming.

 

Time will tell. Go Bills!!!!

Edited October 23, 2017 by Real McCoy

[Bangarang]

I am bracing myself for more inconsistent play from Tyrod and a generally poor passing offense.

[Billsmovinup]

Tyrod Taylor had 179 passing yards against the 32nd defense last year.

Tom Brady went 0-5 in the first quarter against Seattle in 2007. He must suck to.