Thurman#1 Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 Say again? You're right that nobody should ever say that Tyrod doesn't throw over the middle. He does it a lot. Short. A ton of his throws have always been over the short middle. Any argument implying that he doesn't throw to the short middle a lot is simply wrong. At least in his first year, though, he threw about five-sixths of his deep and intermediate passes to the outside thirds, making him more predictable. I went through every single pass of his first year. It's the deep and intermediate middle third that he didn't get to often back then overall, though more often some games than others. As your chart shows, in the Cincy game if you define intermediate as 11- 20 yards (as ESPN does, so that Transplant does too), he threw one pass there out of the four he threw to the intermediate and deep zones. Both the TD pass and the INT were in the outside third (your chart very conveniently allows that to be quantified). One out of 37 is very low for anyone. But since he only threw four passes of eleven yards or over, his percentage of those four to the middle third was reasonable. In the Jets game you show here on the other hand, he threw there three times out of seven intermediate and deep balls, a high percentage for any QB. Great chart by the way. Very cool.
Thurman#1 Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 (edited) I see this differently. It seems obvious that TT is wanting Thomas to push the route upfield into that vacated area because it would be an easy TD. Instead, Thomas keeps running the route flat to the sidelines. It's clear that's what Tyrod was waiting for. I think it shows Thomas inexperience more than anything. The dbs vacated that part of the field should have been a sight adjustment on the part of the TE If Tyrod wanted Thomas to push upfield he was asking Thomas to do something he couldn't do. Thomas's goes straight out a few yards, looking over his shoulder to his left back at Tyrod. He turns around not by twisting back around so he gets a look upfield. As part of disguising the route he turns his body back towards Tyrod and then cuts to the outside. He never has a chance to look at the safeties and see what's going on upfield of him. For all he knows a safety or deeper LB is honing in on him from downfield. The furthest Thomas ever looks downfield is getting one look directly in front of him as he cuts to the sidelines. Where the guy posting that video clip says, "This is where I want him to throw the ball," that's where he could have altered the route, simply by throwing the ball downfield a bit. Thomas would have adjusted to go catch the ball. In any case, just throw the damn thing right then when he's open. By the time Tyrod waves, the LB has caught up again and Thomas is close enough to the sidelines that the ball couldn't be fit in there anyway. Edited October 11, 2017 by Thurman#1
Thurman#1 Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 You may be right but Alex Smith didn't start playing well until his 7th year in the league (6th as a starter) and he was 27. He is probably having his best year now while being 33. Nope, Alex Smith had an excellent 6th year in the NFL, the year they lost the conference championship to the Giants. Pretty much the only guy ever to go from non-franchise guy before his sixth year to franchise guy afterwards is Gannon. Agreed he's having his best year now, though.
Thurman#1 Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 (edited) You just continue to make utterly stupid statements like the above bolded here on TSW. 3 QB's win 10-11 games every year.........Rodgers, Brady and Russell Wilson..........and sometimes teams with bad QB play win 10+ games........or even a SB. Alex Smith has averaged 10 wins a year the last six years. Andy Dalton has had 10 or 11 wins four out of the last five years. Roethlisberger's Steelers have averaged over 10 wins per year for the last ten years. Luck had the one horrendous year but other than that he's averaged 10 wins. I mean, you're right that it's teams that win games, not QBs, and that few teams are all that consistent. But if you put "franchise QB" into his original statement instead of "10-11 win QB," it looks like, "A franchise QB makes that throw immediately," which is a pretty reasonable comment. Edited October 11, 2017 by Thurman#1
Scott7975 Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 (edited) You're right that nobody should ever say that Tyrod doesn't throw over the middle. He does it a lot. Short. A ton of his throws have always been over the short middle. Any argument implying that he doesn't throw to the short middle a lot is simply wrong. At least in his first year, though, he threw about five-sixths of his deep and intermediate passes to the outside thirds, making him more predictable. I went through every single pass of his first year. It's the deep and intermediate middle third that he didn't get to often back then overall, though more often some games than others. As your chart shows, in the Cincy game if you define intermediate as 11- 20 yards (as ESPN does, so that Transplant does too), he threw one pass there out of the four he threw to the intermediate and deep zones. Both the TD pass and the INT were in the outside third (your chart very conveniently allows that to be quantified). One out of 37 is very low for anyone. But since he only threw four passes of eleven yards or over, his percentage of those four to the middle third was reasonable. In the Jets game you show here on the other hand, he threw there three times out of seven intermediate and deep balls, a high percentage for any QB. Great chart by the way. Very cool. You can find them on nextgenstats.nfl.com I think they are very cool. Nope, Alex Smith had an excellent 6th year in the NFL, the year they lost the conference championship to the Giants. Pretty much the only guy ever to go from non-franchise guy before his sixth year to franchise guy afterwards is Gannon. Agreed he's having his best year now, though. That's why I said 7th year (6th year as a starter.) He missed the 2008 season. Even that year statistically looked like a Tyrod year. 61.3% 3144 yards 195 ypg 7.1avg 17 TDs 5 INTs. Edited October 11, 2017 by Scott7975
GunnerBill Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 Love the next gen stuff and the NFL should definitely continue to develop. I'd like to see weekly "time to throw" stats rather than just the overall season average. I have been tracking Tyrod's season average week to week which gives a sense of whether it was a good or bad day for him holding the ball each week, but having the number broken down by game would be really useful. I feel like the NFL has finally woken up to the fact that a lot of fans want more than a box score these days and that PFF, Football Outsiders and others have stolen a march on them. Next Gen should be a key part of their future strategy.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 Peterman blows such a well thought out analysis. Good Job At 1:12 Logan Thomas is "wide open" if TT throws the ball immediately. Stop directing traffic and throw the damn ball. If the ball is thrown when it ought to be Thomas walks into the endzone. what he said
PolishDave Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 This is the slow reaction that has been a fatal flaw for Tyrod. He needs to make a split decision to pass to Logan Thomas immediately and he hesitates, which costs them four points. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5gHmJTJq-A At the time he wants Tyrod to throw the pass, Logan Thomas is covered and it is a very difficult pass to make. Tyrod wants Thomas to run to the corner instead of dragging to the sideline. If Thomas runs towards the wide open corner, he gets the separation he needs, Tyrod makes the pass and the Bills score 6. So the commentator is complaining about Tyrod not making a risky pass that is likely to go either incomplete or get picked off. If Tyrod makes the pass when this guy wants him to, and it goes incomplete, then the narrative would be "Tyrod should have held the ball another second and waited for Thomas to come open". I see this differently. It seems obvious that TT is wanting Thomas to push the route upfield into that vacated area because it would be an easy TD. Instead, Thomas keeps running the route flat to the sidelines. It's clear that's what Tyrod was waiting for. I think it shows Thomas inexperience more than anything. The dbs vacated that part of the field should have been a sight adjustment on the part of the TE Exactly what I saw.
Wayne Arnold Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 At the time he wants Tyrod to throw the pass, Logan Thomas is covered and it is a very difficult pass to make. Tyrod wants Thomas to run to the corner instead of dragging to the sideline. If Thomas runs towards the wide open corner, he gets the separation he needs, Tyrod makes the pass and the Bills score 6. So the commentator is complaining about Tyrod not making a risky pass that is likely to go either incomplete or get picked off. If Tyrod makes the pass when this guy wants him to, and it goes incomplete, then the narrative would be "Tyrod should have held the ball another second and waited for Thomas to come open". Exactly what I saw. Horrible take. This is an easy throw. The defender isn't even looking. "The separation he needs" - that says it all. Tyrod needs too much separation. The NFL doesn't work like that.
PolishDave Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 I don't really see the miscommunication TBH. Everyone's seen that route before, it's a pretty standard concept: isolate TE on LB and take secondary away for 3-7 yard gain. The TE isn't required to adjust upfield if the ball gets to him on time. Taylor waving Thomas upfield after the fact doesn't impress me, I think he ran his route as drawn up and the pass simply wasn't on time. Do you see where the first down marker is on that play? Thomas isn't even past the first down marker, where he should be. If he is dragging across past the first down marker, Tyrod makes the throw - or takes off running with it because there is more space between him and the defender. These are the things that happen when your receiving corps sucks. Horrible take. This is an easy throw. The defender isn't even looking. "The separation he needs" - that says it all. Tyrod needs too much separation. The NFL doesn't work like that. You should play QB. You must be good. Easy throw my ass.
Thurman#1 Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 This is going to be a long 12 days.... Oh, man are you ever right. And is that a good wakeup call for me that there are things I need to do more than I need to do this. Outtahere. This is going to be a long 12 days.... Oh, man are you ever right. And is that a good wakeup call for me that there are things I need to do more than I need to do this. Outtahere.
GunnerBill Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 I think there was a window Dave if Tyrod got it out fast. It is designed as a catch and throw type play and it is what I have said right back to pre-season about Tyrod in this offense. This offense does scheme people open... but they don't stay open for that long often and so the ball has to be delivered on time. That said.... there is still a chance for a big play even after Tyrod misses that window... but frankly Thomas looked absolutely lost. When you have Tyrod as your Quarterback your receiving options have to know how to freelance and keep moving in scramble type scenarios and Thomas did not do that. I don't think he is anywhere near ready as an NFL TE.
Wayne Arnold Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 (edited) Do you see where the first down marker is on that play? Thomas isn't even past the first down marker, where he should be. If he is dragging across past the first down marker, Tyrod makes the throw - or takes off running with it because there is more space between him and the defender. These are the things that happen when your receiving corps sucks. You should play QB. You must be good. Easy throw my ass. Thomas is exactly where he "should be". The play worked perfectly but the quarterback got too scared to attempt the pass (again). This isn't even up for debate. Edited October 11, 2017 by Wayne Arnold
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 At the time he wants Tyrod to throw the pass, Logan Thomas is covered and it is a very difficult pass to make. Tyrod wants Thomas to run to the corner instead of dragging to the sideline. If Thomas runs towards the wide open corner, he gets the separation he needs, Tyrod makes the pass and the Bills score 6. So the commentator is complaining about Tyrod not making a risky pass that is likely to go either incomplete or get picked off. If Tyrod makes the pass when this guy wants him to, and it goes incomplete, then the narrative would be "Tyrod should have held the ball another second and waited for Thomas to come open". If the throw is IMMEDIATE then Thomas IS open. Thomas is exactly where he "should be". The play worked perfectly but the quarterback got too scared to attempt the pass (again). This isn't even up for debate. It is for the Champions of Taylor.
PolishDave Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 I think there was a window Dave if Tyrod got it out fast. It is designed as a catch and throw type play and it is what I have said right back to pre-season about Tyrod in this offense. This offense does scheme people open... but they don't stay open for that long often and so the ball has to be delivered on time. That said.... there is still a chance for a big play even after Tyrod misses that window... but frankly Thomas looked absolutely lost. When you have Tyrod as your Quarterback your receiving options have to know how to freelance and keep moving in scramble type scenarios and Thomas did not do that. I don't think he is anywhere near ready as an NFL TE. Once those two, Tyrod and Thomas, have enough time together, that type of play works and results in 6. This was a classic example of what happens when you have two guys who haven't played together enough. QB expects/wants the TE to run one angle, TE runs a shallower angle as if he doesn't realize where the first down marker even is nor does he notice the wide open field to his left. QB hesitates - play fails. Nick Oleary possibly scores there if it is him instead of Thomas.
GunnerBill Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 Once those two, Tyrod and Thomas, have enough time together, that type of play works and results in 6. This was a classic example of what happens when you have two guys who haven't played together enough. QB expects/wants the TE to run one angle, TE runs a shallower angle as if he doesn't realize where the first down marker even is nor does he notice the wide open field to his left. QB hesitates - play fails. Nick Oleary possibly scores there if it is him instead of Thomas. I think personally it is less chemistry and a QB who still has a tendency to hold it too long and a TE who frankly is out of his depth.
PolishDave Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 I think personally it is less chemistry and a QB who still has a tendency to hold it too long and a TE who frankly is out of his depth. Perhaps. No doubt that once looking at the film, Tyrod will wish he had attempted the throw earlier. But that is because he now knows what the outcome ended up being by waiting. But if anyone realistically puts themselves in Tyrod's shoes it is incredibly easy to see how the QB is thinking "Dude - just adjust your angle slightly and you are wide open for a gimme touchdown." I think that is why he hesitated. He waited for the easy "gimme" touchdown that never materialized because he forgot he is playing with rookies.
Royale with Cheese Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 I think personally it is less chemistry and a QB who still has a tendency to hold it too long and a TE who frankly is out of his depth. I think this is right. To me it was similar (not exact) but similar to a play last year or the year before with Robert Woods. Taylor held the ball too long and it allowed the LB to catch up to Woods and giving him less room to turn up field....Woods was pushed out at like the one. Ball thrown sooner, Woods walks in.
GunnerBill Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 I think this is right. To me it was similar (not exact) but similar to a play last year or the year before with Robert Woods. Taylor held the ball too long and it allowed the LB to catch up to Woods and giving him less room to turn up field....Woods was pushed out at like the one. Ball thrown sooner, Woods walks in. At least Woods is a bona fide NFL receiver. Logan Thomas is as much a Tight End as I am an Oil Magnate. And I can't even spell BP.
Royale with Cheese Posted October 11, 2017 Posted October 11, 2017 At least Woods is a bona fide NFL receiver. Logan Thomas is as much a Tight End as I am an Oil Magnate. And I can't even spell BP. I think Thomas just needs to that TE that stretches the field vertically and that's it.
Recommended Posts