Quarterly Report & Grades

[Alphadawg7]

With a quarter of the season on the books, wanted to asses how we have been and how things look for the next quarter of the season.

 

1. We are 3-1 with a 1 game lead in the division, and should be 4-0 with a 2 game lead really. While Panther game was full of issues, there is no denying we should have won the game on that last play. ZJ made a poor rookie route and forced himself into a tougher position to make what should have been a walk in TD catch and the rest is history. Even with the loss on the books (and make no mistake about it, there were a lot of reasons we lost that game) I think its safe to say we have grossly out performed just about everyones projections as a team and squashed any talk of intentionally tanking.

 

2. We enter the 2nd quarter in sole possession of the AFC East and one game up on NE. Our schedule this quarter is: @Bengals, home against Bucs and then Raiders, then @ Jets. I don't think its out of the question to say we can reasonably win all 4 of those games. Bengals, Bucs, and Raiders have had disappointing starts to their seasons to say the least. The toughest team on that schedule IMO is the Bucs, and they have not been overly impressive and are very beatable. I don't think its unreasonable to say that is quite possible we go 3-1 and have a shot at 4-0 this quarter.

 

3. Patriots next are: @Bucs, @Jets, then home vs Falcons and then Chargers. Falcons rematch is clearly the toughest test in this 4 game stretch, but the Bucs could also be a tough matchup given how bad the Pats D has played. I also would add the Chargers are no gimme win either given the poor Pats D and the Chargers have narrowly lost each game and played tough each week. However, I still think the more plausible scenario is the Pats win at least 3.

 

First Quarter Grade: A-

I would say A+ given we have exceeded all expectations, but dumb penalties and losing a game we should have won keeps me from going above A-.

 

My 2nd Quarter Prediction:

At close of the next quarter, Bills still in first place in the East with a 6-2 record and Pats still one game behind at 5-3.

 

First Quarter Grades:

 

Quarterback: A-

Before I even explain the grade, lets recap what TT has had to overcome first: He lost his WR he had the most connection with in preseason, saw his entire WR group change, gained a new #1 WR that missed the whole preseason and had no time to build rapport with him, had to deal with ZJ not catching anything really thrown to him, been dealing with key injuries on our OL, had a struggling run game around him, and had to learn an entirely new offense again.

 

Yet through all of that he has found a way to mostly put the offense on his back with our run game not having as much success as last year. In fact, his only turnover was a pass deflection that should have been caught by Clay in the first place. He hasn't been perfect, which is why I gave him the minus after the A, but he's definitely shown growth this year as a passer and I think Dennison is improving in how he calls games too as they both get comfortable with each other.

 

Running Backs: B

Don't get me wrong, McCoy is a major asset and an A+ player. I think part of the reason this grade is only B for me has more to do with the OL in Dennisons system and how Dennison has also called the games. However, McCoy had just an atrocious game against Carolina missing holes due to dancing and indecisiveness I am not used to seeing from him. Tolbert has had good and bad moments too, but honestly I think the bigger issue with Tolbert is he is being over used and in situations that don't always play to his strengths. I expect this to be an A moving forward though.

 

Wide Receivers: D

This has been the worst preforming group on the offense IMO. Part of this has to be with them all still getting timing down with TT and learning the offense as our top 2 guys are a rookie and new addition. However, ZJ's play has not only cost us a win, but also been pretty bad in each of the games. He has played more like a guy at the end of a roster than a #2 pick. Our WR's in general have been subpar is also getting separation as well as running clean routes. Our top guy is now hurt again and likely out a month, so this unit is a BIG concern over this next quarter.

 

Tight End: A-

Clay has been our best downfield player all year without a doubt. The reason I give him only an A- is because he didn't have a good week 1 where he dropped some passes including causing the lone INT this year. But in his defense, he's been mostly really good so far and he seems like a new player out there this year with his increased role. My biggest issue in the past has been his lack of focus and consistency in his play. With his new involvement, that seems to have changed quite a bit for him.

 

Offensive Line: C+

They have struggled with consistency and still are a liability in pass protection, especially Mills. But its definitely not been as bad as preseason and hopefully the last 2 weeks are an indicator they are improving their run blocking as well. Not having Glenn hurts, hopefully he's back soon and this unit keeps rising as it was at a clear F in the preseason.

 

Defense: A+

I am not going to give each group an individual grade here because all of them would get at least an A, if not A+. Pretty hard not to give the unit an A+ on the year when they are top scoring defense in the NFL.

 

Hyde and Poyer have been outstanding. Tre White has been outstanding. One of our biggest concerns coming into the year was the secondary, and they have beyond exceeded expectations. Tre is a legit ROY candidate and I would argue Tre, Hyde and Poyer have a legit case for the Pro Bowl if it was chosen today. Our LBs have been better than expected too, and our DL has lived up to expectations as a whole.

 

Dareus however sits alone with an F. This guy to me is moving closer and closer to being off this roster in 2018 unless he can really fall inline and start being the player he is capable of. But the defense has excelled without him, so I wont knock the D score over his individual grade.

 

Special Teams: A+

50 yard FGs perfect down the middle each time easily earn high grades from me and carry this unit alone to an A+...that being said, our Punt game has been on point too and not to be over looked. Return game has been meh, but our kickers have been en fuego mostly this season and that is the most important part to ST for me and enough to earn them an A+.

 

Coaching: Overall is B+

McD gets a B as HC, Dennison a B- as OC, and Frazier an A+ as DC.

 

I am thrilled with McD, but the B grade has more to do with clock management and going too conservative in some moments all things I expect to improve as he grows as a HC. Dennison is a B- because the game he called week 2 was terrible, but he's improved each of the last 2 weeks. But his week 2 game, his ongoing love affair with Tolbert, and still too many head scratching calls knocks his grade down. Frazier is an easy A+ for me and I don't think it even requires a reason.

Edited October 2, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[Kelly the Dog]

That's a very good assessment.

 

I would add that Tyrod himself missed three quarters of preseason games because of his injury, which hurt his growing into the offense.

 

I wouldn't say Dareus is an F at all. Maybe C. He had an injury last week. He was decent yesterday.

 

The defense has been fantastic but we have one clear weakness, the 10-20 yard zone in the middle of the field, and yestday had issues with backs out the backfield. And we are truly in a bend but not break defense and we are clearly not breaking but there is the bending part. So it's quibbling but I would say A and not A+.

 

Dennison has been pretty good at times. I would give him a C because he should have run this offense all four games he did last game. Plus the Dennison and McD Tolbert fetish rivals the Rex Ryan toe fetish. It's just... Ewww.

 

Special teams K game has been extraordinary. P game very good. Return game terrible. The long return we gave up yesterday in the fourth could have hurt us bad. So I think that's more of a B+. Hauchska has been A++.

[Royale with Cheese]

Coaching - B+

QB - B

WR - C

Offensive line - C

Tight ends - B+

Defensive line - A

Linebackers - B

Secondary - A+

ST - A

 

Here's my ratings.

Edited October 2, 2017 by Royale with Cheese

[RoyBatty is alive]

I disagree we should be 4-0, we "deserved" to lose at Carolina and we got very very lucky in Atlanta. CaM Newton tried his bet to keep us in that game and that was not a gimme catch (we dont know what the route either) The pivotal call on the Matt Ryan fumble was the game and that easily could have been ruled an incomplete pass on the field and probably not overturned.

Yes like most NFL they are close so right now we "could" be 4-0 about as easily as we could be 2-2 imo.

[Domdab99]

This team is over-performing. I love the new attitude that McD has brought to Buffalo, but let's be real: we have no offense. TT has no one to throw to but Clay and Shady, and behind Shady is literally nobody. We've lost a starting LB and WR to injury for at least a month, and we have benefited greatly from some questionable calls that have gone our way.

 

I'm all in on this new regime, and I'm excited for the future of the Buffalo Bills.

 

But right now? This team is winning with smoke and mirrors. And one helluva good defense.

[Alphadawg7]

This team is over-performing. I love the new attitude that McD has brought to Buffalo, but let's be real: we have no offense. TT has no one to throw to but Clay and Shady, and behind Shady is literally nobody. We've lost a starting LB and WR to injury for at least a month, and we have benefited greatly from some questionable calls that have gone our way.

 

I'm all in on this new regime, and I'm excited for the future of the Buffalo Bills.

 

But right now? This team is winning with smoke and mirrors. And one helluva good defense.

 

I am also very concerned about the injury at LB and WR this weekend, but this grade is about the first quarter not the next quarter. So I can't factor in fears in grading what I have seen.

 

The main reason I still feel optimistic about the next 4 games has more to do with the quality of opponent as all the teams on our schedule are very beatable, so I think even with the injuries these are winnable games for us and ones I now expect us to win most of.

 

Lot a football left to play and this team has a lot to prove still, but these 4 games have me optimistic.

[Magox]

I do believe we will come back down to earth over the next 4 games. I honestly was only hoping to see a more fundamentally sound team that would cut down on the penalties with a better defensive structure in place . We are over performing from a talent perspective and I'd be somewhat surprised if we went 3-1 or better over the next quarter of the season. But I am very optimistic where this team will be by the end of next year and even more so the year after that. Talent wise, and I've been saying this for a while, I would expect that we will have a noticeable infusion of talent added to the roster next year. That's when we will take it to an even higher level than where we are right now.

Edited October 2, 2017 by Magox

[Alphadawg7]

I do believe we will come back down to earth over the next 4 games. I honestly was only hoping to see a more fundamentally sound team that would cut down on the penalties with a better defensive structure in place . We are over performing from a talent perspective and I'd be somewhat surprised if we went 3-1 or better over the next quarter of the season. But I am very optimistic where this team will be by the end of next year and even more so the year after that. Talent wise, and I've been saying this for a while, I would expect that we will have a noticeable infusion of talent added to the roster next year. That's when we will take it to an even higher level than where we are right now.

 

Yeah, next years draft especially is going to be interesting to watch. Honestly I know a lot of people still doubt TT and feel the FO will make a big trade up with those draft assets next year, but I don't think thats as likely as some want to believe.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think its highly probable we take a QB with one of our first 4 picks in the first 2 rounds, I just don't know that we will give up a lot to move up for one as I think between TT showing growth and the draft looking like it will be potentially deep at QB, its more reasonable to think we will take one where we feel comfortable and use the other 5 picks in the first 3 rounds to go after more talent around the prospect.

 

A guy I think could be on this roster next year is Mayfield personally, and I don't think we will need to trade up to get him if all the QBs come out that are expected to.

[Magox]

 

Yeah, next years draft especially is going to be interesting to watch. Honestly I know a lot of people still doubt TT and feel the FO will make a big trade up with those draft assets next year, but I don't think thats as likely as some want to believe.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think its highly probable we take a QB with one of our first 4 picks in the first 2 rounds, I just don't know that we will give up a lot to move up for one as I think between TT showing growth and the draft looking like it will be potentially deep at QB, its more reasonable to think we will take one where we feel comfortable and use the other 5 picks in the first 3 rounds to go after more talent around the prospect.

 

A guy I think could be on this roster next year is Mayfield personally, and I don't think we will need to trade up to get him if all the QBs come out that are expected to.

 

 

The way I'm feeling at this moment, which could very well change is that I'd rather not try to trade up to get a QB. There are 4-6 bonafide first round QB talents so I don't think we need to trade up to get one of those guys if that is what they decide to do and we do have some holes on this team. We need a true #1 WR that can go deep. We need to upgrade on at least a couple LB's. We need a RG. We need more depth at RB. We need more depth at Safety. We need more depth at DB. Probably need to start looking at more DT's, even though I do think we get another year out of Dareus and K. Williams.

[Alphadawg7]

 

 

The way I'm feeling at this moment, which could very well change is that I'd rather not try to trade up to get a QB. There are 4-6 bonafide first round QB talents so I don't think we need to trade up to get one of those guys if that is what they decide to do and we do have some holes on this team. We need a true #1 WR that can go deep. We need to upgrade on at least a couple LB's. We need a RG. We need more depth at RB. We need more depth at Safety. We need more depth at DB. Probably need to start looking at more DT's, even though I do think we get another year out of Dareus and K. Williams.

 

Totally agree with all of this.

[Domdab99]

Yeah, I see no reason to trade up for a QB unless it's an obvious Andrew Luck-type of player.

[Alphadawg7]

Yeah, I see no reason to trade up for a QB unless it's an obvious Andrew Luck-type of player.

 

Funny the one prospect coming into the CFB season that seemed to be an Andrew Luck type prospect is seeing that start to slip away and that is Darnold. I think its safe to say that the Luck type luster of his draft status isn't there at the moment given the way the season has gone so far for him and the Trojans. Lot of football to be played, plus combine, so still plenty of time to cement his case for top QB next year, but its no longer a slam dunk gimme its him.

 

His season kind of reminds me of Jake Locker and Brian Brohms final seasons in College where they were widely believed to be the top pick in the draft going into those final seasons. Heck, most thought they would have been top pick had they come out a year earlier. But good, yet not spectacular, seasons amidst high expectations derailed that top pick potential to where Brohm fell to the 2nd and Locker still went 8th overall as the 2nd QB, but was mostly seen as a reach at that point and before the draft there was people wondering if he would fall further in the draft.

 

So who knows, if Darnold regains that Luck type hype before the season is over, but I think its safe to say he is potential draft status is not as clear at this moment.