Deshawn Watson is better then Tyrod. Yes I said it

[simool]

That's a total cop out. Every team passed on Brady multiple times and it's a one in a million scenario. If the Bills don't get a franchise QB next year it was a bad move, period. All moves or inactions carry risk. The guys calling the shots are paid big salaries to be right. They are supposed to be better than us armchair guys at having FORESIGHT. Fans have hindsight . They are supposed to be better than us. Excuses are for losers. The gamble will pay off or it won't. Would you rather have a QB for ten years or a good cornerback?

 

Brady is just one example. There are countless. How about Rodgers? Damn near every team in the league passed on him.

[GunnerBill]

 

Too bad we don't have time machines right because no one knew what anyone would be on draft night. This revisionist nonsense is getting played out. Watson had lots of question marks coming into the NFL about his ability at the next level, hence why he wasn't even a consideration in the first 3 picks of the draft where all 3 teams were desperate for a QB.

 

We can play this game with Tom Brady too...Everyone passed on him at least 5 times and took scrubs before taking the GOAT. And I don't care if anyone said Watson was going to be great on this board because they didn't have any clue if that was going to be true or not, it was just a fans guess where they have a 50/50 shot of being right or wrong.

While everyone has their fair share of busts on their resume... I totally reject the idea that I am just playing a 50/50 guessing game.

 

Am I an amateur? Sure. Do I get everything right? Definitely not. But I put countless hours into it and others on this board do too. My QB evaluations for the 2017 class were published on this board, all my "working out" is available to read (Bandit always publishes his too). I am not just reading other people's opinions and guessing.

Edited October 16, 2017 by GunnerBill

[BillsFan2313]

Yes, having good receivers tends to help out QBs. Unfortunately there are many on this board who do not understand this. Are you one of them?

 

You are teaching me so much

[Alphadawg7]

With respect to the highlighted segment you can make that same claim for any player drafted, regardless of position.

 

The top three qbs taken were by teams that gave up high round picks to move up to select them (Trub, Mahomes and Watson.) The Bills were in a position to select either Mahomes or Watson with their designated pick. As it stands the Bills are still in search of a franchise qb, something they haven't had for a quarter of a century since the retirement of Kelly.

 

If you believe that Taylor is a franchise qb that is your right. I don't think it is unfair to believe that most people don't accept that view, and that probably includes the organization that he now plays for.

 

You carefully ignored my closing statement: We did very well for ourselves in the draft. We got what has been a top rookie DB in the NFL, a position of massive need and loaded up on picks to get a QB this draft if they decide to do so.

 

No team rebuilds every position in one draft, its a process and the front office made good moves to rebuild this team in this draft. Has Watson looked good so far, yes, but lets not pretend he was some slam dunk on draft night.

 

And lets be real honest with ourselves here...how many people are ACTUALLY watching the games Watson plays in versus checking the stat box? He has had a lot of success just chucking the ball up into double coverage and stuff and letting his extremely talented WR group go up and get the ball. I love watching Watson play in college and I am watching him play now, but a lot of what he has accomplished has been greatly helped by the talent level of who he is throwing too. TT has NO ONE here in Buffalo and I doubt Watson would be playing anything close as good here if he was a Buffalo Bill working with these scrubs to throw to. In fact, I don't think its unreasonable to say TT would also be having a pretty good season if he was playing in Houston too.

 

Anyone trying to compare TT and Watson is only doing so because they play the same position, not because they are playing with anything close to equal talent around them. Im no TT apologist, and I said coming into the season there are things he still needs to improve to be a long term solution, but there is no denying he is working with the worst group of weapons to throw to in the NFL while Watson is working with a top 3 unit.

[Alphadawg7]

While everyone has their fair share of busts on their resume... I totally reject the idea that I am just playing a 50/50 guessing game.

 

Am I an amateur? Sure. Do I get everything right? Definitely not. But I put countless hours into it and others on this board do too. My QB evaluations for the 2017 class were published on this board, all my "working out" is available to read (Bandit always publishes his too). I am not just reading other people's opinions and guessing.

 

No disrespect, but thats like saying you're not a doctor but you read Web MD to form intelligent medical diagnosis. The depth of knowledge, evaluation, analysis is so substantially deeper than anything any of us will get on the web, no matter how much you study. And if any of us were truly good at it, then we are all wasting away on a message board rather than making good money doing it for an NFL team.

 

If you want to call it a slightly educated guess, by all means do so. But make no mistake about it, any pre draft declarations by you, me, or even a professional scout or GM are all just guesses. But the pros make those guesses with a world of more knowledge, data, experience and facts than any fan has, and even they suck at it as they will always miss more than they hit on draft picks.

 

So its easy to say people liked Watson and thought we should take him, but I can also create a list a mile long of QB's people insisted were guys we should take and would be great that went on to be terrible. Its a guess, no matter how anyone looks at it and some of those guesses will be right by even the worst pickers.

 

For instance, if Mahomes is good, does anyone really think that means Jeffismagic is now somehow smart about football? I mean he said some of the most illogical and absurd things this board has seen the last few years, but again, he has a 50/50 shot of being "right", but doesn't make him football smart if Mahomes does become good.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

 

Im no TT apologist,

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Has Watson looked good so far, yes, but lets not pretend he was some slam dunk on draft night.

 

And lets be real honest with ourselves here...how many people are ACTUALLY watching the games Watson plays in versus checking the stat box? He has had a lot of success just chucking the ball up into double coverage and stuff and letting his extremely talented WR group go up and get the ball. I love watching Watson play in college and I am watching him play now, but a lot of what he has accomplished has been greatly helped by the talent level of who he is throwing too. TT has NO ONE here in Buffalo and I doubt Watson would be playing anything close as good here if he was a Buffalo Bill working with these scrubs to throw to. In fact, I don't think its unreasonable to say TT would also be having a pretty good season if he was playing in Houston too.

I have watched every snap Watson has taken as an NFL player. And as you will recall from our discussions in Feb / March this was never about Tyrod now v Watson now. It was about the chance to take someone who I firmly believed and still believe has the chance to be a Franchise Quarterback for 10-15 years.

[Alphadawg7]

I have watched every snap Watson has taken as an NFL player. And as you will recall from our discussions in Feb / March this was never about Tyrod now v Watson now. It was about the chance to take someone who I firmly believed and still believe has the chance to be a Franchise Quarterback for 10-15 years.

 

Yet you still conveniently ignore that Watson has Elite talent making big plays on the ball, much like he had in college too. While TT deals with players who can't catch, can't go deep, and don't scare anyone as most people don't even know who any of these ST players are that are mostly starting at WR for the Bills.

 

And I have watched most of every Houston game this year too (helps that I have Hopkins in several fantasy leagues), and if anyone is being HONEST they will recognize that a lot of Watson's production has been greatly helped by the play of the extreme talent at WR he has.

 

I thinks its more than reasonable, in fact I will flat out say its 100% fact, that if Watson was the Bills QB this year he wouldn't not have nearly as good of production throwing to these scrubs. Its also more than fair to say that TT would have be having a much better season in Houston than he is in Buffalo from a production standpoint too.

 

In fact, I am not so sure people wouldn't be railing on Watson here if he was the Bills QB because a lot of his passes he made in Houston would either fall incomplete or be picked off here because we don't have WR's capable of making the plays those guys are, getting the separation they are, catching tough contested passes like they are.

 

This is not a knock on Watson either, I rather enjoy watching the Houston games, and he has a lot of football ahead of him and I hope he goes on to big success as he's a great kid. But its a pretty uneven comparison when Watson has one of the best group of receivers in the NFL and TT has the worst.

[section122]

After watching several non-Bills games yesterday, it's clear that many/most QBs in this league make decisions faster than Tyrod and release the ball much sooner. Sure Trevor Siemian had a couple picks yesterday, but he moved the ball up and down the field easily and put his team in position to score points.

 

At the close of the game one of the announcers said "Simien had the most pyrrhic passing night I have ever seen tonight" Sure he had a couple of picks? Those picks cost them the game much like it did in Buffalo!

 

I have watched every snap Watson has taken as an NFL player. And as you will recall from our discussions in Feb / March this was never about Tyrod now v Watson now. It was about the chance to take someone who I firmly believed and still believe has the chance to be a Franchise Quarterback for 10-15 years.

 

Alpha I enjoy your posts but I will vouch for Gunner here. He was banging the table for Watson throughout the entire process and had him as his #1 guy. Gunner gives informed opinions and there are a couple of guys who do as much work as the "pros" when it comes to pre-draft evals. I mean he is wrong about TT (jk Bill) but he is someone who puts in the time and effort.

[Alphadawg7]

 

At the close of the game one of the announcers said "Simien had the most pyrrhic passing night I have ever seen tonight" Sure he had a couple of picks? Those picks cost them the game much like it did in Buffalo!

 

 

Alpha I enjoy your posts but I will vouch for Gunner here. He was banging the table for Watson throughout the entire process and had him as his #1 guy. Gunner gives informed opinions and there are a couple of guys who do as much work as the "pros" when it comes to pre-draft evals. I mean he is wrong about TT (jk Bill) but he is someone who puts in the time and effort.

 

I wasn't saying that to disrespect him, I put myself and all of us in the same category. I know people who do this for a living and I know the absurd amount of time, research, and data they go through and its utterly insane. Its me really standing up for the work those people put in and how fans like to compare themselves to what they do as if the research is similar.

 

And like I said, the pros also still "suck" at it and are wrong more than they are right when it comes to projecting prospects. I respect GunnerBills posts and opinions, even when we don't agree always, and one of those reasons is he is very informed and logical and very much enjoy the back and forth with him.

 

I very much like watching Watson and players like him play, but I also feel its unfair to compare him to TT right now given the massive difference in talent to work with around each player and how much that talent has shown up for Watson and how much TT's players have let him down too.

Edited October 16, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[section122]

 

 

I very much like watching Watson and players like him play, but I also feel its unfair to compare him to TT right now given the massive difference in talent to work with around each player and how much that talent has shown up for Watson and how much TT's players have let him down too.

 

I agree with every bit of this.

[HappyDays]

Yes, having good receivers tends to help out QBs. Unfortunately there are many on this board who do not understand this. Are you one of them?

This is my whole thing about Deshaun Watson. Ill give him credit, he's doing better right off the bat than I thought he would. There is a baseline for starting QBs in the NFL and so far hes at least at that baseline. Some QBs - Tom Savage, EJ Manuel, etc. - cant even get production with good talent around them. Thats a harder baseline to find than people give credit for, so Ill give credit to Watson for performing well, itz not like he can control how good his team is.

 

But Im not ready to take the next step that many are already taking which is that Deshaun Watson is the next great QB and the Bills made a big mistake not taking him. For me, a great QB needs to perform well whether or not they have great talent around them. Tyrod Taylor is not a great QB, no one here would ever say that. If Watson was here I dont see how our record would be any better. He cant throw into a sea of defenders and expect a completion if Zay Jones or Andre Holmes is standing there instead of Deandre Hopkins. He wouldn't be putting up 3+ TDs per game if Rick Dennison was his OC, because wed be running the ball relentlessly as soon as we got a 1-score lead.

 

So no, Im not ready to proclaim Watson a better option than Tyrod because I think if Tyrod was in the same system with the same players he could be at least as successful. Tyrod would probably not be as willing to throw into double coverage, but he also wouldn't throw so many awful balls and interceptable passes. So at best it would be a wash IMO. Thats still better than I expected him to be but people need to pump the breaks a little.

Edited October 16, 2017 by HappyDays

[GunnerBill]

Just for the record I haven't ignored Watson's receiving talent. I posted about it in this very thread. His 3 is better than anyone we have except Matthews and the Bills did try and claim him at one point which shows the FO have the same or a similar view.

 

However, we have to recognise his line is worse - it might be the 2nd worst performing line in the league next to the Giants stripped of its one truely excellent player in Duane Brown. And we also, if we watch the games, have to recognise that Fuller dropped two deep balls yesterday that hit him right in the hands. One was a perfectly thrown walk in TD if he caught it.

 

I reapeat again... I have never tried to get into TT vs DW. Clearly I believe DW's ceiling is higher... but I am not saying put him on the Bills and our record is immediately better. Indeed I said Houston was the perfect spot for him because that is a team that has made the playoffs with far worse QBs than Deshaun Watson.

 

But to suggest my view on Watson was a guess I simply do not agree with. I'm not flipping coins here. The draft is not the crapshoot some like to make out. Information doesn't always give you the perfect decision but it massively improves your chances. Watson's college tape was better than many QBs who have been drafted before him not just last year but higher in previous drafts. And when he proves he is a franchise guy, and he will, guys who passed on him because they scout the old way will get fired.

Edited October 16, 2017 by GunnerBill

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

F5

[Alphadawg7]

Just for the record I haven't ignored Watson's receiving talent. I posted about it in this very thread. His 3 is better than anyone we have except Matthews and the Bills did try and claim him at one point which shows the FO have the same or a similar view.

 

However, we have to recognise his line is worse - it might be the 2nd worst performing line in the league next to the Giants stripped of its one truely excellent player in Duane Brown. And we also, if we watch the games, have to recognise that Fuller dropped two deep balls yesterday that hit him right in the hands. One was a perfectly thrown walk in TD if he caught it.

 

I reapeat again... I have never tried to get into TT vs DW. Clearly I believe DW's ceiling is higher... but I am not saying put him on the Bills and our record is immediately better. Indeed I said Houston was the perfect spot for him because that is a team that has made the playoffs with far worse QBs than Deshaun Watson.

 

But to suggest my view on Watson was a guess I simply do not agree with. I'm not flipping coins here. The draft is not the crapshoot some like to make out. Information doesn't always give you the perfect decision but it massively improves your chances. Watson's college tape was better than many QBs who have been drafted before him not just last year but higher in previous drafts. And when he proves he is a franchise guy, and he will, guys who passed on him because they scout the old way will get fired.

 

Im sorry if you are offended by the "guess" tag, I meant no offense to you by any means, it applies to us all. But unless you can see the future, any statement you make about something that hasn't happened yet and isn't provable is just a guess. That doesn't mean you didn't do your homework to make a more educated guess, but its still guess no matter how you look at it. You pouring over film doesn't make you right about something that has not happened yet, because if studying meant you would be right 100% of the time you would own the entire NFL by now.

 

So call it what you want, but any proclamation about any player by any person is nothing more than their best guess as to what might happen in the future. And some people will have a higher probability of guessing correct more often because they study more and know more, but at the end of the day everyone is just guessing about these kids at the next level to some extent. And the Pros are WRONG more than they are right and put in probably 100 times more time, energy, and studying on the matter than you or most fans put in as they live it 365 days a year.

 

As far as his college tape, I disagree with your assessment and had a different opinion as I saw a lot of bail out from his receivers, including bailing him out to win the Championship where he threw up some passes that Williams made ridiculous plays to pull down of they lose that game.

 

He threw a lot of INTs in college, so his tape was not mind bending IMO, it was a kid who was full of athletic talent but had questionable decision making, questionable accuracy, and was not clear if he was another guy who runs better than he throws. And a LOT of scouts and NFL analysts had the same concerns. I throughly enjoyed watching him play in college, but the concerns were there for many, including myself, that made him a player people were divided on.

 

And before anyone crowns him the next best thing...its WAY too early to know what kind of a pro he will be long term. He has made some nice plays no doubt, he's also made a lot of bad throws or questionable plays that he was bailed out on with his WR's talent. RG3, Vince Young, Culpepper...all guys who seemed to be a legit dual threat that fizzled out either once the NFL caught up with them or they didnt have Elite WR's bailing them out. I am for reals rooting for the kid, what he did with his game check to help families made me a fan for life no matter how good or bad he plays. That carries a lot of weight with me, but I am also a realist and seen this story many times in the NFL to know that the outcome of his career is far from certain even with the promising start.

[Game Manager]

Alpha was wrong about this qb draft class and won't let it go.

 

17 Td's already for Watson = L

 

Give GunnerBill his props. He was all over Watson.

[GunnerBill]

If it makes you feel better about the Bills so consistently getting it wrong Alpha then believe the draft is a crapshoot and only the people in the NFL can ever get it right. The reality is somewhat different. And I absolutely do not consider myself an expert, but I absolutely do believe that there are nobodies doing the job better than some of the people in the league.

 

And I love Tre White by the way and was very high on him. If the Bills snag a franchise guy in 2018 with their two 1st they will be absolutely vindicated. But the 2017 QB class was not a bad class and the tape showed that.

[BillsMedia]

 

Except its not the best start of a rookie QB ever, but nice try. I mean Cam Newton threw for 400 yards in EACH of his first 2 games in the NFL. I love how people take a single game and always apply it over their whole season. He doesn't have back to back 300 yard passing games either, and he is 1-2 as a starter. Factually nothing you just said is accurate.

 

Vince Young ROY...how did that work out? RG3 ROY, how did that work out?

 

Way too early to declare this kid the next great thing despite his encouraging work the last 2 weeks.

 

This is actually who I think will be the QB the Bills will draft next year, even if we keep Taylor. And I think its entirely possible we may not need to trade up to get him and can keep our other draft assets for WR's, OL, and possible Dareus replacement (because I am finding it harder and harder to see him on this team next year).

 

Baker Mayfield in the 4th if he's still there, sure.

[GunnerBill]

Alpha was wrong about this qb draft class and won't let it go.

 

17 Td's already for Watson = L

 

Give GunnerBill his props. He was all over Watson.

I think, and I don't speak for Alpha but in general, a lot of Bills fans bought into the 2017 class sucks narrative because they wanted to believe that Tyrod was not part of the problem and if they could just fix the defense... and of course to an extent there is some truth to that.

 

But it should never have been TT in 2017 vs a 2017 rookie. If you think someone can be a franchise QB and they drop to you you take them unless you have an established one in their prime. If that means you pass up a chance to make your defense stronger in the immediate term with a Tre White then so be it.

[Real McClappy]

I think, and I don't speak for Alpha but in general, a lot of Bills fans bought into the 2017 class sucks narrative because they wanted to believe that Tyrod was not part of the problem and if they could just fix the defense... and of course to an extent there is some truth to that.

 

But it should never have been TT in 2017 vs a 2017 rookie. If you think someone can be a franchise QB and they drop to you you take them unless you have an established one in their prime. If that means you pass up a chance to make your defense stronger in the immediate term with a Tre White then so be it.

According to many draft experts around here every QB draft class sucks except 2018, but that will most likely change as well? Anyways, I was big into Trubisky myself followed by Watson. I already wrote it off as another Billsy new coaching staff miss. I wonder when Pegula will slam it down the new FO to draft a friggin QB? Whaley was already fired for not taking Mahomes by Pegula. Let's see what is in store.

Edited October 16, 2017 by Real McCoy