DC Sean McDermott vs QB Matt Ryan

[PromoTheRobot]

First, I'm not as adept at mining stats as others here. I was hoping to glean some numbers showing what to expect Sunday based on past games where Sean McDermott faced Matt Ryan. McDermott faced Atlanta and Ryan 12 times as def coordinator with a record of 5 Panther wins and 7 losses.

 

In a nutshell, Ryan mopped up the Panthers D in 2011, 2012 and 2016. But from 2013-2015, Ryan played some of his worst games against McDermott, going 2-4 and throwing just 5 TDs in 6 games. Maybe some of you know where to dig to find some better indicators.

 

2011:

14/22=163 1 TD W

22/38=320 4 TDs W

2012:

25/40=369 3 TDs W
34/49=342 2 TDs L

2013:

20/27=219 1 TD L
28/40=280 2 TDs L

2014:
31/45=268 1 TD W
29/27=260 0 TD L

 

2015:
22/34=224 0 TD L

23/30=306 1 TD W

2016:

28/37=503 4 TDs W

27/33=277 2 TDs W

Edited September 27, 2017 by PromoTheRobot

[boyst]

First, I'm not as adept at mining stats as others here. I was hoping to glean some numbers showing what to expect Sunday based on past games where Sean McDermott faced Matt Ryan. McDermott faced Atlanta and Ryan 12 times as def coordinator with a record of 5 Panther wins and 7 losses.

 

In a nutshell, Ryan mopped up the Panthers D in 2011, 2012 and 2016. But from 2013-2015, Ryan played some of his worst games against McDermott, going 2-4 and throwing just 5 TDs in 6 games. Maybe some of you know where to dig to find some better indicators.

 

2011:

14/22=163 1 TD W

22/38=320 4 TDs W

 

2012:

25/40=369 3 TDs W

34/49=342 2 TDs L

 

2013:

20/27=219 1 TD L

28/40=280 2 TDs L

 

2014:

31/45=268 1 TD W

29/27=260 0 TD L

 

2015:

22/34=224 0 TD L

23/30=306 1 TD W

 

2016:

28/37=503 4 TDs W

27/33=277 2 TDs W

our defense is much closer to the Panthers at their better years, so I'm not all that worried. Save for just a couple new wants is in the names of the players this could easily be the 2015 Carolina Panthers defense

[Dr.Sack]

We haven't beat the Falcons in 22 years 1995, going 1-4. We are due for a win.

[Nick the Greek]

My analogy: McDermott knows the Falcons as McDermott knows Panthers, and his knowledge helped us win.

 

We lost to the Panthers, so that isn't a strong argument. And he should know his former team better than a divisional rival, right. So any advantage is minimal at best.

[JMF2006]

Bills need to break in that new stadium right,with a road win.

[judman]

The W against Denver definitely turned some heads.

 

Our L is really a dropped catch by a rookie in a great defensive effort where we blanked Cam in the TD column.

 

Our D is tough. This is no cake walk for ATL.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

We haven't beat the Falcons in 22 years 1995, going 1-4. We are due for a win.

since then they played them 4 times times - 2001, 2005, 2009 and last played 2013

4-7 all time

 

the early 90s were the last good stand. This should be a better team in a decade to face them.

Edited September 27, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan

[boyst]

I know this past summer I saw some of the old BN signs and one was the infamous "Pluck the Falcons" that was colored in to read "!@#$ the falcons"

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

The W against Denver definitely turned some heads.

 

Our L is really a dropped catch by a rookie in a great defensive effort where we blanked Cam in the TD column.

 

Our D is tough. This is no cake walk for ATL.

Maybe.

 

Seimian - Young kid still making rookie mistakes.

[Thurman#1]

First, I'm not as adept at mining stats as others here. I was hoping to glean some numbers showing what to expect Sunday based on past games where Sean McDermott faced Matt Ryan. McDermott faced Atlanta and Ryan 12 times as def coordinator with a record of 5 Panther wins and 7 losses.

 

In a nutshell, Ryan mopped up the Panthers D in 2011, 2012 and 2016. But from 2013-2015, Ryan played some of his worst games against McDermott, going 2-4 and throwing just 5 TDs in 6 games. Maybe some of you know where to dig to find some better indicators.

 

2011:

14/22=163 1 TD W

22/38=320 4 TDs W

 

2012:

25/40=369 3 TDs W

34/49=342 2 TDs L

 

2013:

20/27=219 1 TD L

28/40=280 2 TDs L

 

2014:

31/45=268 1 TD W

29/27=260 0 TD L

 

2015:

22/34=224 0 TD L

23/30=306 1 TD W

 

2016:

28/37=503 4 TDs W

27/33=277 2 TDs W

 

 

 

2013 - 2015 were Ryan's and the Falcons down years. They'd traded for Jones and lost most of their best draft capital for years and it really affected that team.

 

2011 10-6

2012 13-3

2013 4-12

2014 6-10

2015 8-8

2016 11-5

 

They aren't the same team they were.

[DriveFor1Outta5]

 

 

 

2013 - 2015 were Ryan's and the Falcons down years. They'd traded for Jones and lost most of their best draft capital for years and it really affected that team.

 

2011 10-6

2012 13-3

2013 4-12

2014 6-10

2015 8-8

2016 11-5

 

They aren't the same team they were.

Yes. His numbers still weren't all the bad, and he went somewhere around .500 against McD during those years. I'm excepting this to be the first game where our defense give up some big numbers. I hope that I'm wrong, but I'm not excepting much from this game. The Falcons offense is incredibly good. In the NFL there is a chance of winning every game, but I see this one as the least winnable on our schedule.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

My analogy: McDermott knows the Falcons as McDermott knows Panthers, and his knowledge helped us win.

 

We lost to the Panthers, so that isn't a strong argument. And he should know his former team better than a divisional rival, right. So any advantage is minimal at best.

Not sure I follow. Sure, we lost. But our D totally shut the panthers down. I am hoping we see the same against the falcons.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Agreed.

 

So did the Saints defense which up until playing the panthers looked awful.

 

Newton isn't Matt Ryan. In fact I think Cam is highly overrated.

Yeah, maybe the panthers O is bad-- we'll see. But the broncos O is pretty good and we shut them down too.

[PromoTheRobot]

My analogy: McDermott knows the Falcons as McDermott knows Panthers, and his knowledge helped us win.

 

We lost to the Panthers, so that isn't a strong argument. And he should know his former team better than a divisional rival, right. So any advantage is minimal at best.

But we didn't lose on defense.

[aristocrat]

need to play the falcons like the bears did. allowed only two falcons tds but a bunch of fg's. thats what we need to do. they will get their yards but we gotta just hold them in the red zone and cause turnovers and be more aggressive on those turnovers.

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

One of the strengths of McDermott Panthers defenses that tended to give Matt Ryan fits was....wait for it......super LB Luke Kuechly. His ability to cover intermediate routes was constantly problematic. He'd lurk around the middle of the field and get a great break on rhythm throws to the middle third.

 

I don't think the Bills have that guy on this roster. But if the pass rush can consistently get pressure, the Bills may be able to force a turnover.

need to play the falcons like the bears did. allowed only two falcons tds but a bunch of fg's. thats what we need to do. they will get their yards but we gotta just hold them in the red zone and cause turnovers and be more aggressive on those turnovers.

 

The Bears had two things going for them that helped them out in that game:

 

1) A tremendously slow, grass field.

2) A fresh start with no real game tape available.

2.5) Tarik Cohen.

 

With the game on the carpet, the Falcons are going to be much much faster than they were in that Chicago game. On both sides of the ball. Which I think is going to be a lot for the Bills to handle.

[aristocrat]

One of the strengths of McDermott Panthers defenses that tended to give Matt Ryan fits was....wait for it......super LB Luke Kuechly. His ability to cover intermediate routes was constantly problematic. He'd lurk around the middle of the field and get a great break on rhythm throws to the middle third.

 

I don't think the Bills have that guy on this roster. But if the pass rush can consistently get pressure, the Bills may be able to force a turnover.

 

The Bears had two things going for them that helped them out in that game:

 

1) A tremendously slow, grass field.

2) A fresh start with no real game tape available.

2.5) Tarik Cohen.

 

With the game on the carpet, the Falcons are going to be much much faster than they were in that Chicago game. On both sides of the ball. Which I think is going to be a lot for the Bills to handle.

 

shady is gonna need to be on point...like 150 yards rushing and some pass yards. tyrod with some rush yards as well. so 200 plus yards rushing and around 200 yards passing will keep us in this game. outside of that it will be very tough to keep up with the falcons. but those numbers aren't out of the question for us.

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

 

shady is gonna need to be on point...like 150 yards rushing and some pass yards. tyrod with some rush yards as well. so 200 plus yards rushing and around 200 yards passing will keep us in this game. outside of that it will be very tough to keep up with the falcons. but those numbers aren't out of the question for us.

 

I think thats on the table if the Bills can get a 10 point lead relatively early. I think if they fall behind, its not all that likely.

 

Our run defense has been fine for most of the season except for a tiny handful of plays (Tarik Cohen for 46 Wk 1, Matt Stafford for 19 last week, Randall Cobb for 10). I think we can handle the normal approach to the run game simply because of our speed and the current personnel likely to play a lot of snaps.

 

What will be interesting to see is whether the Bills can make some money on "tricky" run plays. Reverses, etc. That could work well against the Falcons' defensive speed and was a large part of Cohen's big 46 yard run.

 

I also dont doubt that Tyrod will be able to move the ball on the ground.

 

It should be an interesting game, for sure.

[DriveFor1Outta5]

Yeah, maybe the panthers O is bad-- we'll see. But the broncos O is pretty good and we shut them down too.

I think we'll see that the Panthers are a bad team this season. We'll also see that Siemien isn't great although he had a couple very good games. Siemien and Matt Ryan are worlds apart. This is the only game this season that I don't give us a chance to win.

[CLTbills]

First, I'm not as adept at mining stats as others here. I was hoping to glean some numbers showing what to expect Sunday based on past games where Sean McDermott faced Matt Ryan. McDermott faced Atlanta and Ryan 12 times as def coordinator with a record of 5 Panther wins and 7 losses.

 

In a nutshell, Ryan mopped up the Panthers D in 2011, 2012 and 2016. But from 2013-2015, Ryan played some of his worst games against McDermott, going 2-4 and throwing just 5 TDs in 6 games. Maybe some of you know where to dig to find some better indicators.

 

2011:

14/22=163 1 TD W

22/38=320 4 TDs W

 

2012:

25/40=369 3 TDs W

34/49=342 2 TDs L

 

2013:

20/27=219 1 TD L

28/40=280 2 TDs L

 

2014:

31/45=268 1 TD W

29/27=260 0 TD L

 

2015:

22/34=224 0 TD L

23/30=306 1 TD W

 

2016:

28/37=503 4 TDs W

27/33=277 2 TDs W

great post, OP.

 

I love seeing these kinds of stats that you have to dig up.

 

I think thats on the table if the Bills can get a 10 point lead relatively early. I think if they fall behind, its not all that likely.

 

Our run defense has been fine for most of the season except for a tiny handful of plays (Tarik Cohen for 46 Wk 1, Matt Stafford for 19 last week, Randall Cobb for 10). I think we can handle the normal approach to the run game simply because of our speed and the current personnel likely to play a lot of snaps.

 

What will be interesting to see is whether the Bills can make some money on "tricky" run plays. Reverses, etc. That could work well against the Falcons' defensive speed and was a large part of Cohen's big 46 yard run.

 

I also dont doubt that Tyrod will be able to move the ball on the ground.

 

It should be an interesting game, for sure.

Agreed.

 

Definitely can't come out and go 3-and-out on our first drive. We HAVE to get on the board early. If we have to play from 10 points behind, that kind of football is just not our strength.