Kirby Jackson Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 Why Not? See the - No punt game Buffalo @ SF. No team scores on every drive. What we need to see is the 3rd down conversion rate closer to 50% than 25-30% weekly. Yes I know not all TT's fault. Which game again? Seattle or Miami? Those are his 2 standout games from 2016. Why is it so wrong to want to see TT have 8 or 10 standout games? I agree 100% on 3rd down. The Bills need to do better on 1st down so they aren't always in 3rd and long. Last week the playcalling was better on 1st down and it helped. When judging a QB I look at a few things 3rd down conversions, red zone %, ypa and TD:turnover. That basically tells the story to me. Are you keeping the chains moving? Are you capitalizing when you get close? Are you getting enough yards when you get the chance? Are you making more plays than mistakes? I will be a little more forgiving on yards per attempt because I think that his weapons are bad. That will hold it back some. Those other 3 things though he should be held to a high standard. Did you make the plays when they were needed?
BuffaloHokie13 Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 Why Not? See the - No punt game Buffalo @ SF. No team scores on every drive. What we need to see is the 3rd down conversion rate closer to 50% than 25-30% weekly. Yes I know not all TT's fault. Which game again? Seattle or Miami? Those are his 2 standout games from 2016. Why is it so wrong to want to see TT have 8 or 10 standout games? We're 39.1% this year, good for 15th. Last year we were 41%, good for 13th. in 2015 we were 37.9%, good for 21st. I have no idea where you're getting this sub 30% nonsense from.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 Hang on here. Is anyone talking about Taylor being as good as Brees or Brady? But at least take a more holistic approach here. Here are total touches (pass attempts+sacks+runs), NET yards (passing yards-sack yards+rushing yards), 1st down conversion % on 3rd down passes, 1st down % on all throws, and TD% for all throws. Brady 1035 / 125 / 8.3 / 50.0% / 41.8% / 7.3% Brees 845 / 114 / 7.4 / 43.3% / 36.9% / 5.4% Brees and especially Brady are pretty much going to be ahead of the pack in about every category, obviously. They're pass-centric offenses. But Stafford's probably a better comparison because the Lions run more than they pass. And a lot of Taylor's runs are on designed passing plays, so the numbers are probably closer. But here's how Taylor and Stafford compare. Stafford 713 / 120 / 5.9 / 40.0% / 34.6% / 6.5% Taylor 628 / 112 / 5.6 / 42.3% / 38.0% / 5.1% Much closer. Stafford averages about 28 yards more per game on a few more touches per game, so far. Taylor has been better on 3rd downs and throwing for 1st downs in general. While Stafford has thrown more TDs per attempt. At least try to align the types of offenses when you do these comparisons. Brees is always gonna throw a ton. So is Brady. I guess you missed the point and the flow of the thread. The graphic shown listed 4 QB's. I then posted the stats for the 4, Brady, Brees, Stafford, Taylor. Per the posted graphic of TT and Brady - It never mentioned (per NFL.com) the other top RATED QB's. #1 Sam Bradford, #2 Alex Smith OR #4 Jared Goff (I looked at 3 sites and get 3 different results as to the top 8 rated QB's. That in and of itself shows that these QB ranking are inaccurate indicators. ) Well, maybe you did get at what I was pointing out ...... Which of those QB's doesn't fit in the picture. Your question - Is anyone talking about Taylor being as good as Brees or Brady? based on the statistics in the graphic, some people will argue he's a top 8 QB. I agree 100% on 3rd down. The Bills need to do better on 1st down so they aren't always in 3rd and long. Last week the playcalling was better on 1st down and it helped. When judging a QB I look at a few things 3rd down conversions, red zone %, ypa and TD:turnover. That basically tells the story to me. Are you keeping the chains moving? Are you capitalizing when you get close? Are you getting enough yards when you get the chance? Are you making more plays than mistakes? I will be a little more forgiving on yards per attempt because I think that his weapons are bad. That will hold it back some. Those other 3 things though he should be held to a high standard. Did you make the plays when they were needed? the trouble with 3rd down evaluation - was the run scheme bad, was the pass play bad, was TT able to read the field and have the ability to audible, or think on the fly because of coverage. too many variables, but this is a key stat people look to as a measurable.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 We're 39.1% this year, good for 15th. Last year we were 41%, good for 13th. in 2015 we were 37.9%, good for 21st. I have no idea where you're getting this sub 30% nonsense from. Things are looking up, but 3 weeks is still a small data set. Yes, the 2017 TEAM 3rd down #'s have improved. Maybe I embellished a bit - I mentioned seeing 25-30% too often in prior years. It had to be referenced to gain a larger data set. BBMB discussed this a lot
26CornerBlitz Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 @DOrlandoAJC Analytics: #Bills Tyrod Taylor 16th best quarterback in the NFL: https://www.myajc.com/sports/football/analytics-taylor-16th-best-quarterback-the-nfl/GaXkostfxozdeIaYg2hWgL/ Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor ranks in the middle of the pack of starting quarterbacks in the NFL, according to analytics website Football Outsiders. They evaulate quarterbacks according to a defense-adjusted yards-above-replacement (DYAR) measure, and Taylor has a 96 rating, which ranks 17th in the league. They also rank the quarterbacks according to the defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), and Taylor has a 6.5 rating, which ranks 16th.
mannc Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 Things are looking up, but 3 weeks is still a small data set. Yes, the 2017 TEAM 3rd down #'s have improved. Maybe I embellished a bit - I mentioned seeing 25-30% too often in prior years. It had to be referenced to gain a larger data set. BBMB discussed this a lot So you were just making stuff up?
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 (edited) So you were just making stuff up? Just for you. Sorry I like sarcasm too much Edited September 28, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan
Scott7975 Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 Why Not? See the - No punt game Buffalo @ SF. No team scores on every drive. What we need to see is the 3rd down conversion rate closer to 50% than 25-30% weekly. Yes I know not all TT's fault. Which game again? Seattle or Miami? Those are his 2 standout games from 2016. Why is it so wrong to want to see TT have 8 or 10 standout games? I don't really disagree with anything you are saying here.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 I don't really disagree with anything you are saying here. Wanting better doesn't mean I think he sucks and deserves unwarranted blame or credit.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 Things are looking up, but 3 weeks is still a small data set. Yes, the 2017 TEAM 3rd down #'s have improved. Maybe I embellished a bit - I mentioned seeing 25-30% too often in prior years. It had to be referenced to gain a larger data set. BBMB discussed this a lot I gave you 2 full seasons of data, along with the 3 game sample this year. None of them were close to '25-30% weekly'. The 2017 team 3rd down #'s are worse than last year's, though not significantly. Not sure how that's improvement?
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 I gave you 2 full seasons of data, along with the 3 game sample this year. None of them were close to '25-30% weekly'. The 2017 team 3rd down #'s are worse than last year's, though not significantly. Not sure how that's improvement? think of that as a figure of speech and not literally factual please. We've seen some bad games in the last 32 wrt 3rd down. The good thing is we have seen improvement.
C.Biscuit97 Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 And this is where advance stats completely miss the boat. TT has a better qb than Rodgers, BigBen, and Wilson.
HappyDays Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 And this is where advance stats completely miss the boat. TT has a better qb than Rodgers, BigBen, and Wilson. ...and? It's only 3 games into the season so we need to wait for it all to shake out. But is it really that shocking to you that over a 3 game sample Tyrod could look better than those QBs? The Steelers offense has weapons all over the field and couldn't beat the Bears who have a poor defense. Russell Wilson has looked like crap this year, Tyrod has easily been a better QB than him so far. Rodgers is clearly far better than Tyrod but he has struggled as well.
C.Biscuit97 Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 ...and? It's only 3 games into the season so we need to wait for it all to shake out. But is it really that shocking to you that over a 3 game sample Tyrod could look better than those QBs? The Steelers offense has weapons all over the field and couldn't beat the Bears who have a poor defense. Russell Wilson has looked like crap this year, Tyrod has easily been a better QB than him so far. Rodgers is clearly far better than Tyrod but he has struggled as well. Yes, its completely nuts to put TT ahead of any of those guys. They are forced to carry a much bigger load than TT (79 attempts) vs. Big Ben (110), Rodgers (134), & Wilson (115). But maybe you are right and Beane should see if those teams would want to trade Qbs because TT is a top 10 qb in qbr.
transplantbillsfan Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 Why Not? See the - No punt game Buffalo @ SF. No team scores on every drive. What we need to see is the 3rd down conversion rate closer to 50% than 25-30% weekly. Yes I know not all TT's fault. Which game again? Seattle or Miami? Those are his 2 standout games from 2016. Why is it so wrong to want to see TT have 8 or 10 standout games? Taylor's 3rd down conversion % on 3rd down passes is 42.3% (guess you ignored my post above) and he's just about middle of the pack in the NFL. But that number is actually an improvement over the last 2 years.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 And this is where advance stats completely miss the boat. TT has a better qb than Rodgers, BigBen, and Wilson. Passer rating is computed from 4 stats. Completion %, YPA, TD%, and INT%. Tyrod currently has a better Completion % than all 3 of the guys you listed; a better YPA than all but Rodgers, whom he is .11 behind; a higher TD% than all of them; and is only ahead of Rodgers for INT% I personally use a different blend of stats for my ratings (and factor in attempts per game), which would place Tyrod last among the 3 you listed plus him. (Rodgers is 6, Wilson is 9, Ben is 15, Tyrod is 21 currently)
Kirby Jackson Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 @DOrlandoAJC Analytics: #Bills Tyrod Taylor 16th best quarterback in the NFL: https://www.myajc.com/sports/football/analytics-taylor-16th-best-quarterback-the-nfl/GaXkostfxozdeIaYg2hWgL/ That feels about right. With the regression of guys like Dalton, Flacco and Cam he bumps up higher than where I would have had him before the year (20ish).
HappyDays Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 Yes, its completely nuts to put TT ahead of any of those guys. They are forced to carry a much bigger load than TT (79 attempts) vs. Big Ben (110), Rodgers (134), & Wilson (115). But maybe you are right and Beane should see if those teams would want to trade Qbs because TT is a top 10 qb in qbr. You put Russell Wilson ahead of Tyrod this season? Try watching the games instead of looking up pass attempts. Is that seriously the metric you're using?? Not even pass yards, pass attempts??
BuffaloHokie13 Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 You put Russell Wilson ahead of Tyrod this season? Try watching the games instead of looking up pass attempts. Is that seriously the metric you're using?? Not even pass yards, pass attempts?? Russ, behind a terrible OL, has been asked to make a play 47.7 times per game so far this year. That's more than every QB except Rodgers and Palmer. Even at that high amount, here's how he stacks up, per attempt, to Tyrod: Yards per Touch: RW - 5.45; TT - 5.61 TD%: RW - 3.50%; TT - 3.57% TO%: RW - 0.70%; TT - 0.89% Total Attempts per Game: RW - 47.7; TT - 37.3
section122 Posted September 28, 2017 Posted September 28, 2017 What we need to see is the 3rd down conversion rate closer to 50% than 25-30% weekly. Yes I know not all TT's fault. Isn't 40 % closer to 50 than 25%? Further the best team in the league last year finished at 48.6% literally no team in the league does what you are asking... We're 39.1% this year, good for 15th. Last year we were 41%, good for 13th. in 2015 we were 37.9%, good for 21st. I have no idea where you're getting this sub 30% nonsense from. Thank you! think of that as a figure of speech and not literally factual please. Why exaggerate to make a point unless the point is too weak to stand on its own... Russ, behind a terrible OL, has been asked to make a play 47.7 times per game so far this year. That's more than every QB except Rodgers and Palmer. Even at that high amount, here's how he stacks up, per attempt, to Tyrod: Yards per Touch: RW - 5.45; TT - 5.61 TD%: RW - 3.50%; TT - 3.57% TO%: RW - 0.70%; TT - 0.89% Total Attempts per Game: RW - 47.7; TT - 37.3 People are losing their minds that Tyrod put up 3 against Carolina who has a top 3 defense by most metrics. However Russel put up 12 and 9 points against GB and SF defenses who aren't considered to be good defenses. Russel has led Seattle to 12 or fewer points 7 times since the start of last year (out of 21 games). So 33% of the time Russel leads his team to less than 12 points. How much would Tyrod be getting killed on here if he did that? Out of 18 games Tyrod has done it twice. That is 11% of the time. Everyone needs to step back and look at guys around the league. Tyrod IS outperforming Eli, Cam, Flacco, Wilson, Dalton, among others. Just because he is the Bills qb doesn't mean he sucks.
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