Thoughts through 2 weeks

[Kirby Jackson]

What makes me nervous is if Kyle retires and Dareus is sent packing. WIll our DL be a force with Jerell Worthy and another decent vet in the middle?

 

You win with stars. Good role players are secondary to stars.

Good questions JMC (and realistic). Worthy and Washington are good rotational depth but you may need to get a high end replacement. I don't think that the Bills can use thei 2nd 1st round pick on a DT even if they don't need to trade up for a QB. They have to add to that offense. Maybe they try to sign Poe or Logan?

[BananaB]

Tyrod account for 80% of the rushing yards and 93% of the offense. When things get tough he has to make plays (and did). McCoy being the other playmaker that he looks to in the passing game. The receivers stink. You watched a different game than the one I was at. With the game on the line he did everything!! TT led them down the field and threw a game winning TD that was dropped. He did pretty much the exact opposite of what you are saying!! In fact in 2 of his last 3 starts he led drives that should have won the game. The defense/Carpenter/Rex blew one and Zay the other. He isn't the perfect QB but he is absolutely, undeniably a playmaker (and always has been. The question has been consistency not playmaking ability.

 

Alas, if you want to continue to complain about the QB there are 1,000 other threads to do that.

I agree and disagree depending on the part. McDermott looks like he can manange games and coach. He looks to me to be a good find but did a bad job assembling the offensive staff. Beane on the flip side hasn't impressed me at all. This roster is less talented than previous rosters (by a lot). They are more disciplined and better coached. I loved the trades for Tre and Zay and hated the Sammy trade. Dumping guys like Gillislee and Williams to give carries to Tolbert is beyond stupid. They tried to build a roster that needs 13-15 play drives to score. It's like competing with Indians by trying to hit singles or the Warriors but dumping it in the post. Teams score fast and in bunches in sports now and we adopted Jauron's offense. I'm not sure how anyone can like the look of it? At its core its flawed.

 

The defense looks fixed to me. I always thought the problem was Rex. I'm not sure anyone would disagree. They have the same guys in the front 7 and look like a totally different group. It's a great start for them.

There is no sense me continuing with the conversation in this thread. Anybody who thinks Tyrod did his job on Sunday is completely lost. We had 3 points and you want to blame everybody but the guy who touches the ball on every play. Real nice! A poor throw to Zay at the end, two 4yard scrambles in the closing minute of the game. 6 net passing yards at halftime. Yeah, that's real good! Edited September 20, 2017 by BananaB

[JerseyBills]

Winnable for Denver, I assume you mean.

 

No way we win that game.

I know guy's that don't have a team, they just bet. Study all types of analytics, matchups, etc.. They love Buffalo for whatever reason, I do too because the initial line and I have faith the O looks more like week 1 then week 2

[Kirby Jackson]

There is no sense me continuing with the conversation in this thread. Anybody who thinks Tyrod did his job on Sunday is completely lost. We had 3 points and you want to blame everybody but the guy who touches the ball on every play. Real nice! A poor throw to Zay at the end, two 4yard scrambles in the closing minute of the game. 6 net passing yards at halftime. Yeah, that's real good!

I blame the offensive coaches. They found nothing in any facet. Everntually Tyrod tried to make plays. He was the best offensive player for the Bills Sunday (and that's not saying much). You say the same thing every time but it's because you aren't paying attention. If Zay catches the ball (which every former WR and he himself agrees should have happened) the Bills win the game. It isn't that complicated. Listen to Donald Jones break down the play, hopefully it will help.

 

Again, he's average. If people think he's the biggest problem with that offense they don't know what they are watching. That's why his grades always end up average or better. His rating and QBR on Sunday were both above the league average.

I know guy's that don't have a team, they just bet. Study all types of analytics, matchups, etc.. They love Buffalo for whatever reason, I do too because the initial line and I have faith the O looks more like week 1 then week 2

FWIW I loved the Bills getting 7.5 in Carolina. Those teams are mirror images of each other. Denver is better than the team that we played last week. Edited September 20, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[SoTier]

Kirby, I've heard a bit of it on the radio, but the offense on this team reminds me a lot of the Dick Jauron era.

 

It's certainly not much to get excited for.

 

No, no, no! It's totally ridiculous to dare compare the Bills offensive offense against Carolina to Jauron's great offensive offenses. After all, McDermott went for a first down on 4th and 1 at mid-field so they're NOTHING alike! //sarcasm off

 

 

we knew this is what they would be this year. there is a new regime in town top to bottom, and complete (and refreshing) change in approach and attitude toward the game / roster and they are rebuilding to fit the new requirements. its like an expansion team but with a decent NFL-competitive roster to start.

 

we knew Sammy wasn't going to get paid after this year when they passed on his 5th year option.

 

we knew they weren't paying Woods once his contract was up and that Goodwin was a brittle track guy, not an NFL player

 

we knew TT wasn't their guy when they kept redoing his contract to keep the numbers down; even moreso not the guy now, with Dennison's offense forcing TT to be a pocket QB,

 

we knew therefore, that top FAs, especially WR types like Jeremy Maclin who want the ball, et al weren't coming to a rebuilding, run-oriented , bad QB, traditionally sh-t franchise if other options existed. So the free agent period was, as expected, pretty thin for our Bills

 

we knew after the trades for high draft choices (which in retrospect were smart as h-ll, , BTW), they were thinking longer term, not win or bust in 2017

 

So, we knew well before the season started this would be another season of great competitive spirit and very few wins.

 

It's not a tank, it just year 1 of the latest rebuild. But these guys look like the first decent management team we've had in a while. and 2018 draft is loaded with QB talent. frankly, the Bills are a lot better than I expected through 2 games. they may again screw up their 2018 draft position after all.....

 

 

Y'know, you may be fine with another iteration of the never ending rebuild of the championship caliber team that never was and never will be, but after 18 years, I'm pretty sick of it. I have no patience left any more. There is no light at the end of the tunnel with the Bills. McDermott will be out in three years or maybe even less, and the perpetual rebuild will return to square one with another has-been, neophyte, buffoonish incompetent running the show.

 

 

What makes me nervous is if Kyle retires and Dareus is sent packing. WIll our DL be a force with Jerell Worthy and another decent vet in the middle?

 

You win with stars. Good role players are secondary to stars.

 

Alexander is 32 or something, and Hughes 29. On the offensive side, all the RBs are 29 or older. DiMarco the FB is 28. On the OL, Wood is 30 and Incognito is 34. That's beside the point that the Bills don't have an NFL caliber WR corps.

 

The idea that drafting a franchise QB in the first round will put the Bills on the fast track to the Super Bowl within a couple of years is ludicrous. Most of the starters need to be upgraded or replaced in the near future. That's even assuming that the QB the Bills draft in 2018 doesn't turn out to be another Losman or Manuel.

Edited September 20, 2017 by SoTier

[eball]

I think you sum up my feelings through two weeks quite well. I fear this season is going to be another 6-10 to 8-8 affair in which all of the games are reasonably close but the Bills are incapable of making a big play offensively when needed.

 

The defense has been a wonderful revelation, and Schmidt looks fantastic as well.

[Dr. K]

Good:

- Buffalo still has an NFL team

 

Bad;

- I don't like football anymore

Yep

[Kirby Jackson]

I think you sum up my feelings through two weeks quite well. I fear this season is going to be another 6-10 to 8-8 affair in which all of the games are reasonably close but the Bills are incapable of making a big play offensively when needed.

 

The defense has been a wonderful revelation, and Schmidt looks fantastic as well.

Schmidt is a guy that belongs on the good. He had a terrible year last year but looks to be back to a good punter. I found it odd that they brought a punter in Monday.

[eball]

Schmidt is a guy that belongs on the good. He had a terrible year last year but looks to be back to a good punter. I found it odd that they brought a punter in Monday.

 

He needed the rest!

[JohnC]

I have been in Charlotte for the last few days and haven't been following much on here so forgive me if this is redundant. Just wanted to sum up some thoughts and concerns through 2 weeks.

 

Good:

- I knocked Poyer when they signed him. So far I look like an idiot. He's been arguably their best player.

- Welcome back 4-3 defense. The DL looks good as to do the LBs and secondary.

- So far I was right, Rex was the problem.

- Team is more disciplined and takes less stupid penalties, waste less timeouts and in general play at a good pace.

- This defense can play.

 

Bad:

- Playmakers!!! I was right here too (unfortunately). We may have the worst skill players in the NFL. McCoy and Tyrod are the only legit playmakers that we have. That receiving group is worse than even I could have imagined. Gross!!

- People asked "will you win more games with Sammy" as their reasoning for accepting the trade. I will point to Sunday, with virtual certainty and say that he would have been the difference in that game. He would have been the go to guy late.

- Dennison's running game (as uncle Kirby said during camp).

- Castillo vs. Kromer

- Beane's lack of appreciation for speed. I pounded the table that 13+ plays to score isn't sustainable. You need to make big plays sometimes. I'd bet when the season ends that the Bills are bottom 5 in the NFL in plays 50 yards or more.

 

This team feels terribly boring. I have not enjoyed these 1st 2 weeks. I do like the fact that we are good on defense. They can invest in the offense next year. In general though I would give them a "c" so far. Next week is an opportunity, a winnable game at home. I think that we'd have all been happy with a 2-1 start. Get it done!!

Excellent analysis. But let's put things in perspective. The defense has been stabilized in short order and is functioning well. (As you noted.) Clearly the offense is devoid of playmakers and in my opinion an inadequate qb. (I'm aware you are more positive on TT than I.) While your exasperating tone on the offense is proper and understandable it must be understood that not every issue was going to be addressed in the first year.

 

The organization has accumulated a bucket of picks for next year's draft. That's better than gratuitously giving up picks for marginal gain at best. If the Bills don't come up with a legitimate franchise qb and a burst of talent with their numerous high picks then the McDermott/Beane strategy of rebuilding will fail. When the new regime entered the scene it should have been expected that this team was going to take its lumps in the first couple of years. What did you expect? The same Whaley patchwork approach to building an 8-8 type of roster?

 

I consider Watkins to be a sterling talent. But with or without him the Bills were not going to make the playoffs. We ended up with a second round pick and a starting CB for a player that we might not have been able to keep.

 

A new regime no matter how smart it is was not going to quickly revive the sclerotic organization that it was taking over. This year's product was predictably going to be difficult to digest. What's so surprising? Maybe you don't but I do prefer enduring the pain of the early years of a thorough remake than enduring another dispiriting generational status quo of a woeful operation.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

On more big positive, we really upgrade our "R. Bush" this year from Reggie to Rachel .

[BringBackOrton]

Good questions JMC (and realistic). Worthy and Washington are good rotational depth but you may need to get a high end replacement. I don't think that the Bills can use thei 2nd 1st round pick on a DT even if they don't need to trade up for a QB. They have to add to that offense. Maybe they try to sign Poe or Logan?

I don't think Washington lasts in this regime either. I wasn't impressed with him last game, his few chances to make plays, Cam made him look silly. Cam does that to a lot of folks but Adolphus didn't do much for me.

On more big positive, we really upgrade our "R. Bush" this year from Reggie to Rachel .

She has more yards than Reggie this season than last too. Triple threat.

[GunnerBill]

Again, he's average. If people think he's the biggest problem with that offense they don't know what they are watching. That's why his grades always end up average or better. His rating and QBR on Sunday were both above the league average.

Tyrod's style of play confounds rating systems. He was bad on Sunday. Not his worst bad... but bad enough that you can't win with him. And before anyone says he was one play away from winning.... yep, he was... and he missed the throw.

Edited September 20, 2017 by GunnerBill

[yungmack]

First of all if he is going to fire "Rico" (I am assuming you mean Rick Dennison and cannot spell) and Juan Castillo he needs to find replacements. They were brought in to change the offense philosophy otherwise why would he dump the coaches under contract? When Anthony Lynn got an head coach offer he needed to be allowed to leave but he could have made those with contracts stay.

[Note: I really wish there was a sportrac for coaches contracts]

 

Now he needs to find replacements and fast - if they are part of current coaching staff then few changes will be made especially if both coaches are replaced. Anthony Lynn mostly used previous OC's plays but just simplified them last year. Otherwise he needs to find them from college or coaches who are unemployed or retired. Tyrod has not had a lot of time with WRs and OL due to various injuries so jumping off a bridge just to reach your goal of #1 draft pick does not make sense.

He's widely called Rico, it's his nickname.

[Zac]

Good questions JMC (and realistic). Worthy and Washington are good rotational depth but you may need to get a high end replacement. I don't think that the Bills can use thei 2nd 1st round pick on a DT even if they don't need to trade up for a QB. They have to add to that offense. Maybe they try to sign Poe or Logan?

 

 

Star Latulelei is a UFA i believe. They are going to need to plug a few holes via free agency, there's too many to address by just the draft. QB/WR/OT/LB.

[BuffaloBaumer]

The good news is that Cleveland is probably getting a win this week vs Indy.

[C.Biscuit97]

Great post Kirby. I never thought Tyrod was as good as you did but they gave him no chance to succeed this year with the Sammy trade and the new offense.

 

I love, love, love the Bills but I'm just kinda indifferent this year. I worried about this being a Jauron type year. I e reached the point where I expect them to lose but I can still be entertained. I have just been kinda numb the first 2 weeks and it sucks. I skipped the home opener for the first time in like 10 years.

 

I just wanted to be entertained by favorite sports team.

[Kirby Jackson]

Tyrod's style of play confounds rating systems. He was bad on Sunday. Not his worst bad... but bad enough that you can't win with him. And before anyone says he was one play away from winning.... yep, he was... and he missed the throw.

Not trying to be argumentative but to about "confounds ratings systems." He's unconvential for sure but if Zay doesn't fall/drop it (that's what happened) he finishes 18-25 with the game winning TD. We way undervalue his lack of mistakes. That's why he confounds ratings systems. People like Eli Manning and he's turned it over 40 times in his last 34 starts. He single handidly ended 40 drives!!

Great post Kirby. I never thought Tyrod was as good as you did but they gave him no chance to succeed this year with the Sammy trade and the new offense.

 

I love, love, love the Bills but I'm just kinda indifferent this year. I worried about this being a Jauron type year. I e reached the point where I expect them to lose but I can still be entertained. I have just been kinda numb the first 2 weeks and it sucks. I skipped the home opener for the first time in like 10 years.

 

I just wanted to be entertained by favorite sports team.

Thinks C. Biscuit!! I'm having a hard time caring and I hate that!!! It is a boring brand of football. Even the end of the game kind of was what it was. My heart wasn't beating out of my chest. I was excited but at the same time not devastated. I see some positives but this team has a long way to go.

[boyst]

 

I realize Denver is a different team on the road, but their defense just smoked one of the best offensive lines and rushing attacks in the league, and their QB is hot right now, especially when it comes to picking apart soft short- and intermediate- zones. This is going to be ugly.

this could be one of those games where our offense gets us to kick a field goal or two and have a pick 6. We could win this game with 12 points.

 

I don't see either team getting to 20 unless the QBs or fumblerooskies do so.

[corta765]

 

Good stuff Kirby.

 

I too feared in the offseason that we'd be in for a season of boring football, especially on offense. Sunday was borderline unwatchable. The Bills are in the entertainment business and if they're not going to win games (which they're not), they should at least try to look somewhat threatening or explosive. Beane seems to want a team full of Tolberts at every position. I don't know how long I can stand for this.

 

Agreed. One thing I always liked with Stevie Johnson was the fact he was entertaining. Regardless of my opinion on trading Sammy (I was in favor) his leaving was one more less exciting player to watch. This offense feels basically like the 2010 year all over where we are waiting for Tyrod to get replaced, except Shady is a legit HR dominate back unlike CJ who was a rookie. Watching that offense that year was painful a lot and I keep harking back to that season when I see our guys out there. Most of this offense will be different next year so we have a very stale placeholder.

Edited September 20, 2017 by corta765