WEEK 2 - AT CAR: ALL 22 REVIEW: O LINE/ QB UNFORCED ERRORS

[Bocephuz]

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not?

I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did /
How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalties but this should be 95% accurate)

Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field.

DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play)


_______ ______________________

TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 35 - (Last week was 36)

LINE BREAKDOWNS: 7/35 or 20% ( last week was 7/36 or 19% ). In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 20% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.. so lets say the O Line was average again against the Panthers.

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 28/35 or 80% ( last week was 29/36 or 81%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 80% of the time.

UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 7/35 or 20% ( last week was 4/36 or 11%). Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 7 unforced errors by my count which is over the danger line.

BOTTOM LINE


CORDY GLENN – Cordy Glenn started the game but did not finish. He gave up one pressure I believe. Definitely not his old lock down self but passable.

 

DION DAWKINS - Dawkins was beaten on an inside move in the 3^rd quarter giving up a pressure.. but other than that was solid enough in pass protect

RICHIE INCOGNITO – Richie didn’t do so well figuring out stunts today. A rare down day for 64

 

Q2 –9:16 – Incognito does not pick up stunting DE and TT has to check down

 

ERIC WOOD – Wood also appears to have not properly identified/blocked several stunts. He wasn’t physically beaten however.. which is saying something based on their DTs.

 

q3 9:03 - SACK - Wood doesn't pick up the stunt from the DE. Incognito is being distracted by Kuechly and doesn't help out. Mills also beaten to the outside.

 

.

 

JOHN MILLER - Miller was better today. However he too appeared to have misplayed a stunt in q2 and he and Wood did not seem to be on the same page at all. He also had a blatant illegal hands to the face that wiped out a first down. Like Wood however.. he was not really physically beaten all day so that’s a step in the right direction

JORDAN MILLS – well.. the old Mills showed back up today. He was beaten to the outside multiple times and also appeared to have misplayed a stunt. Out of the 7 line breakdowns he was involved in 3.









O LINE PASS BLOCK GRADES

CORDY GLENN - C
DION DAWKINS – C
RICHIE INCOGNITO – C-
ERIC WOOD - C
JOHN MILLER – C
JORDAN MILLS – C-

TYROD ERRORS - Of the 7 Unforced Errors TT committed.. 3 of them came on the last drive. As shown below.. some of the not pulling the trigger was on him.. some wasn’t his fault

 

TT BAILING ON PLAY TO EARLY - There were several rather clear examples where TT could have shuffle stepped into a pocket window and thrown but he tucked and ran a half sec too early. Overall I don’t feel as mad at TT as I did watching broadcast.. however.. he is still to blame for bailing on the play a few times as we shall see here.

 

Q1 1:09 – UNFORCED ERROR – tucking head down bailing too early. Had WR open deep over middle of field



Q3 13:45 – SACK – UNFORCED ERROR - If TT shuffle steps up into the small window on the right side.. trusts his eyes and sees there is no safety deep to double Clay and lets it go before he makes his break you likely have 6 points here. Instead.. TT puts his head down a half sec to early and takes a sack. This is the difference between a Pro Bowl QB and an average QB.



Here’s another view of this same play from the endzone. You can see Miller holding up his guy just long enough. TT has a nice throwing lane to take a quick step into to let it go to Clay. Unfortunately he gets skittish and tucks and runs



TT WISELY CHECKING DOWN OR RUNNING - Here are a few examples where TT was justified in tucking and running or checking down


q2 10;47 – GOOD SCRAMBLE Tolbert has decent block on LB . Incognito not sure who to help… should have helped Cordy. TT scrambles to get 1st down

 

Q2:9:16 – GOOD CHECK DOWN - Incognito does not pick up stunting DE



BAD ROUTES? - There were several head scratchers where the routes looked all jumbled up. Here is an example below. Not much for TT to work with here on this play

q2 1:51 - BAD PLAY DESIGN.. OR SOMEONE RAN WRONG ROUTE
--- I doubt Dennison drew it up this way. All 5 receivers to the intermediate middle.. hut. I think the slot receiver on the right likely ran the wrong route and probably was supposed to run an out route here to clear some space. TT turns his read right for first read.. doesn’t like what he sees… turns left.. no one open and then a cluster F where all receivers end up bunched up close to each other in the middle. Can’t fault TT for scrambling here.. can’t really fault the O Line either

GAME SUMMARY
Typically when the Bills throw more than 30 times with TT at the helm they lose. Last week they bucked that trend. This week they reverted back to the norm. Upon further review the line played just about as well this week as they did against the Jets in pass protect. The Bills were very stout physically against the strong DTs of the Panthers. The RBs also generally did a good job of picking up blitzers. Carolina really didn’t blitz that much.. they didn’t need to. Their stunt game was strong. The O line was outwitted several times as the Panthers continually executed stunts, confusing the Bills linemen and causing pressure. CAR also appeared to be playing simple Cover 2 or Cover 4 mostly with the LBs excellent in coverage clogging up the middle pretty well. Poorly timed penalties wiped out a few first downs and killed what little rhythm they were starting ( Miller illegal hands to face, Holmes push off). As far as big plays go.. one of them was blown up by Dawkins giving up an inside pressure. That being said.. there were two examples I showed where TT could have hung in the pocket for a half sec more and if he would have kept his head up he could have had 2 big plays as there were open receivers past the safeties.
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SIGNIFICANT PLAYS
Q1 8:22 – Zay Jones drops curl route
Q1 1:09 – UNFORCED ERROR – Line does good job picking up the blitz but TT tucks and runs too early.. not seeing an open receiver deep behind the safeties
Q2 10:47 – Tolbert can’t hold block on LB, Incognito not sure who to block.. TT scrambles for 1st down
Q2 9:16 – Incognito does not pick up stunting DE and TT has to check down
Q2 2:02 – SACK – Miller and Mills don’t identify stunt.. Glenn loses his block. TT doesn’t have much of a chance
Q2 1:57 – John Miller grabs facemask.. penalty wipes out would be completion for 1st down
Q2 1:51 - cluster F of bad route running or possibly bad play design leads to TT scramble
Q3 13:16 – TT stands tall takes hit and completes over middle to Clay
q3 13:45 - SACK - unforced error

q3 12:46 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT has O'Leary open over middle on bootleg to the left but checks down to DiMarco

Q3 12:03 – UNFORCED ERROR - TT ball slips out of hand on blooper throw

q3 9:03 - SACK - Wood and Incognito don't pick up stunt ant TT sacked. Mills also beaten to the outside.

Q3 - 9:13 - Dawking beaten to the inside blows up planned deep throw to Holmes

q3 3:39 -UNFORCED ERROR - TT leads Zay Jones too much on out route
Q4 :53 – UNFORCED ERROR – TT has decent protection.. window to step into but tucks too early and does not see wide open Clay behind the safeties
Q4 :30- UNFORCED ERROR – TT throws to wrong shoulder.. Jones cannot make catch. Game over.

Edited September 19, 2017 by Bocephuz

[jrober38]

30+ throws and only a handful of examples of what Taylor should have done different if afforded an aerial view of the field.

 

Our receivers are really bad.

[JM2009]

30+ throws and only a handful of examples of what Taylor should have done different if afforded an aerial view of the field.

 

Our receivers are really bad.

So is Miller.

[jrober38]

So is Miller.

 

This Sunday is going to be tough to watch. The right side of our line and our receivers vs the Broncos D is going to be very hard to watch.

[Domdab99]

interesting

[Mark Vader]

Great write up. Thank you very much.

 

Tyrod needs to be more patient or aware. He did have opportunities.

 

That play with all 5 WR's moving to the middle was bizarre. No way it was drawn up like that.

 

Are you going to make an All-22 of our defense from this game? I would very much like to see how they looked.

Edited September 19, 2017 by Mark Vader

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

i know that he missed oleary on that one... but he did throw it to dimarco passed the sticks for what should have been a first.

 

Felt like he saw oleary but knew with pressure in his face he was going to have to loft that thing up there.

Edited September 19, 2017 by dneveu

[ALF]

Great breakdown Bocephuz your work is very much appreciated .

 

The Panthers being able to shut down the Bill's running game was a shock to me.

 

How are you at evaluating college QBs for the 2018 draft ?

[SoCal Deek]

It's always easy to say that the players are 'bad'...but much of what happens in an NFL game is controlled by the Offensive and Defensive Coordinator. For example, I was hugely impressed with the half time adjustment that Leslie Frazier made to the defense. Our Corners were giving the Panther receivers way too much cushion in the first half. He closed that space down after halftime and the game looked much different. On the flipside, the Bills offense didn't seem to change up much of anything in the second half...and the results were more of the same.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Great breakdown, as per the usual, so thank you!

 

Really wish we had some way to know what the intended play calls were for a few of these. It's been discussed ad naseum, but would love to know, e.g., which route Zay Jones was supposed to run on the last play of the game, whether that proves he ran the correct or incorrect route. Sucks we have to speculate on plays like that as far as attempting to assign blame to see who is and who is not doing their job.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Cheers! Thanks for the effort!

[PolishDave]

Nice work Bocephuz!

 

Notice on the first two plays you linked to (Tryod unforced errors) where Tyrod runs instead of staying in the pocket that extra second - Take note of the giant gaping running holes that open up in front of him on both those plays.

 

I am thinking that had everything to do with why he took off running there. Tyrod sometimes rips off big runs there. This time he didn't. Credit Carolina's fast closing speed with defensive end and linebacker.

 

I don't think Tyrod was skittish there - I think he was trying to make a play with his legs based on those wide holes - not trying to avoid phantom pressure.

Edited September 19, 2017 by PolishDave

[Bocephuz]

Great write up. Thank you very much.

 

Tyrod needs to be more patient or aware. He did have opportunities.

 

That play with all 5 WR's moving to the middle was bizarre. No way it was drawn up like that.

 

Are you going to make an All-22 of our defense from this game? I would very much like to see how they looked.

 

thanks. have my hands full just getting out all 22 for o line/ qb. hopefully someone else will do that though

i know that he missed oleary on that one... but he did throw it to dimarco passed the sticks for what should have been a first.

 

Felt like he saw oleary but knew with pressure in his face he was going to have to loft that thing up there.

 

yeah.. it was just an example for him settling for "ok" instead of "more"

[Gugny]

Great stuff, as always, Bo. Many thanks for your time and effort.

[Bocephuz]

Great breakdown Bocephuz your work is very much appreciated .

 

The Panthers being able to shut down the Bill's running game was a shock to me.

 

How are you at evaluating college QBs for the 2018 draft ?

 

we'll see. Here's how I rated the guys from 2017 class..

Nice work Bocephuz!

 

Notice on the first two plays you linked to (Tryod unforced errors) where Tyrod runs instead of staying in the pocket that extra second - Take note of the giant gaping running holes that open up in front of him on both those plays.

 

I am thinking that had everything to do with why he took off running there. Tyrod sometimes rips off big runs there. This time he didn't. Credit Carolina's fast closing speed with defensive end and linebacker.

 

I don't think Tyrod was skittish there - I think he was trying to make a play with his legs based on those wide holes - not trying to avoid phantom pressure.

 

Good point.. however. It's a matter of choices. He could go for "good" which is tucking and running and maybe getting 10 or 15 yards.. or .. "great" which is hang in there a half second and throw it to a receiver who is 20 yards downfield past the safeties for a TD

 

This is the frustrating thing with his running ability.

Edited September 19, 2017 by Bocephuz

[PolishDave]

 

Good point.. however. It's a matter of choices. He could go for "good" which is tucking and running and maybe getting 10 or 15 yards.. or .. "great" which is hang in there a half second and throw it to a receiver who is 20 yards downfield past the safeties.

 

This is the frustrating thing with his running ability.

 

I agree. In both instances when he looks back on it, I am sure he is going to wish he had hung in there. That may or may not come as the season progresses and he gets more chemistry with these receivers. And of course that is also assuming he remains the starter which he might not.

[ALF]

 

we'll see. Here's how I rated the guys from 2017 class..

 

 

That would be great if Peterman is at the least a good backup but we can hope for starter.

[Koko78]

More important that the offense missteps, who took out the ref?

[JohnBonhamRocks]

More important that the offense missteps, who took out the ref?

 

I heard a certain floor mat familiar with Kevin Kolb was seen lurking on the Bills sideline...

Edited September 19, 2017 by JohnBonhamRocks

[Bocephuz]

 

That would be great if Peterman is at the least a good backup but we can hope for starter.

I think Trevor Simiean is Peterman's ceiling.. which is not bad