Sammy watch

JohnC · October 21, 2017

JohnC. You criticize Whaley for thinking Sammy would have propped up EJ. Haven't theRams done the same thing with Goff? And EHJ looked better as a rookie compared to Goff.

Goff was an immensely better prospect than EJ. EJ was a fourth round talent taken in the first round by an inept organization. Goff was taken at the top of the draft by a team that gave up a lot of assets to acquire him. The point that EJ looked better than Goff in his rookie year is meaningless. So what is the point? Goff has the talent to be a franchise qb while EJ does not now or ever. The EJ pick in the first round was grotesquely stupid by a dumb organization.

oldmanfan · October 21, 2017

Goff was an immensely better prospect than EJ. EJ was a fourth round talent taken in the first round by an inept organization. Goff was taken at the top of the draft by a team that gave up a lot of assets to acquire him. The point that EJ looked better than Goff in his rookie year is meaningless. So what is the point? Goff has the talent to be a franchise qb while EJ does not now or ever. The EJ pick in the first round was grotesquely stupid by a dumb organization.

No. You don't get to use hindsight and all the crap about EJ being a fourth round talent and Goff went first round blah, blah, blah. Compare their rookie years. EJ looked better his rookie year than Goff did. All off-season people were saying the Rams blew it with Goff. And EJ looked decent for a rookie.

You want to give the Rams credit for trying to prop up a young QB with Sammy, and at the same time blast the Bills for doing the same thing with the same exact receiver. It's ridiculous. It just shows your bias.

Marty McFly · October 21, 2017

It's absolutely a guess. I wouldn't say it's a whacky guess though. They were a legit WR away from beating both Cinci and Carolina, that's a guess yes, but a rather strong guess.

Sammy's history and chemistry with Taylor, new offense or no, makes him far more dangerous than anyone else on their roster currently. If he's in those games, everything on offense goes differently. Especially for #25.

Thats right.

Magox · October 21, 2017

Let's put things in perspective and try to understand what McDermott/Beane want to accomplish in their new undertaking. They didn't come to Buffalo to be an extension of the Whaley patchwork approach to yearly roster building. They have a blue print and framework in which their individual transactions fall within. Keeping that reality in mind it has to be remembered that this is a rebuilding process---the antithesis of how Whaley operated.

McDermott is not being secretive about how he wants to build a roster and the type of player/person he wants. Talent is certainly a factor but so is how a player fits in with the unit. Some people such as Badol are mocking that approach while I don't. If done in a balanced way it works.

Again, going back to the rebuilding issue it's not only about players per se but it is also about how the cap is distributed and balanced out within the roster. An expensive cover player such as Gilmore was dispatched (Whaley decision also) and was replaced with cheaper players. Darby, whose contract was due in another year and was going to be more costly, was replaced by a player, Gaines, from the LA deal. If you review this particular unit you are getting better production at a cheaper price. This is a classic example of the use and application of analytics.

With respect to the Watkins deal if you put it in the context of how the wrestling coach wants to rebuild the roster from a cost and type of player/person he wants to work with this deal is very understandable. You don't have to agree with it but it makes sense under the new regime's paradigm.

Where I clash with Badol and others is if you look at the Watkins deal from a one year standpoint the trade is certainly questionable. But if you look at it from how this new staff wants to construct a roster beyond the short term it makes a lot of sense. There was a lot of howling when Watkins was dealt. There is a lot less howling now that he has played some games in LA. My point is when you review some of these transactions within a longer time frame and wider perspective then there is not only a rationality behind it but wisdom behind it.

This pretty much falls along my line of thinking. There is a blueprint to the way they want to run this organization and with that a formatted process to attempt to execute it. Doesn't necessarily guarantee success but in my view those that have clear, detailed plans that follow it with formatted processes typically succeed. Never did I get this sort of impression with Whaley. Whaley for me was a guy who had an eye for talent but didn't really have the organizational acumen or for that matter the ability to properly value talent to be successful.

We've all talked about the rationale behind the Watkins ad nauseum and where the disconnect lies is his perceived value. Yes, with Watkins in the lineup this offense is better than what it is today, despite his glaring inconsistent play. That's where most of the opponents of the trade seem to be hanging their hat, that with him in the lineup the offense is better. This really isn't what the dispute is about, the dispute is he worth $15m+ a year? That's most likely the minimum amount he would have accepted to stay in Buffalo. Yes, you could have kept franchised him next year but that would have cost lots of money and based on his production he isn't nearly worth that much. Plus you then get a player who could very well sit out preseason and isn't all in and that isn't the sort of players they want to build this team with.

They made a calculated decision that he wasn't worth that kind of money and they tried to get as much value as they could out of it. The fact that they got Gaines who has played at a very high level and a 2nd rounder along with lots of cap savings to sign more players next year is looking like a hell of a bargain. The windfall of all these moves was not expected to come about this year, but next year.

stinky finger · October 21, 2017

i wish we could talk about people with regular jobs like we talk about athletes. Word on the street is people knew coming out of college that Joe became an accountant for money. He's not trying to get his CFA. He's not a team guy. The most interesting comment: He's not a guy who would be an accountant for free.

You clearly don't get it. :wallbash:

@theMMQB

10 Things @Andy_Benoit Thinks: Sammy Watkins’s struggles, Falcons’ wrinkle for Brady, keys for Packers on defense

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/10/20/week-7-preview-analysis-sammy-watkins-rams-struggles

1. Rams fans are wondering why Sammy Watkins hasn’t produced. Don’t fret. For one, Watkins, who doesn’t have a great initial burst, has shown juice in his cuts once he gets into his route. He can work himself open. Secondly, the Rams have been designing plays for Watkins, and several times they’ve worked but the ball, for various reasons, didn’t find him. Head coach Sean McVay knows how to get playmakers involved. The Watkins-Goff relationship will blossom eventually—though maybe not this week, given that Watkins faces Cardinals shutdown corner Patrick Peterson in London.

Benoit sounds like so many on his board.

The Sammy thing has been on my mind so I wanted to go back and look at a few things to see what the reality of the "Sammy Situation" is/was.

37 receivers were drafted between 2014 and 2016. Statistically (Catch %, Rec/GM, Yrds/GM, TD/GM, Avg) they stack up like this

25/37 (67%)- Statistically worse than Sammy

8/37- (22%) Statistically better than Sammy

4/37- (11%) Statistically comparable to Sammy

The tough part about the analysis for both Sammy, and in the same sense the Bills organization is that of the 12 players who were better than or equal to Sammy’s production 7 or (7/12) 58% of them came from his draft class (15 players picked after Sammy). Which means Whaley picked a player at number four who would up being worse or equal to (7/15) 47% of the players drafted at his same position.

When you look at the overall statistical analysis Sammy compares favorably to players like Kelvin Benjamin, Sterling Shepard, Tyreek Hill and Jordan Matthews. Anyone who expects Sammy to breakout as elite in his fourth season isn’t playing the odds well, everyone needs to stop looking at Sammy as a wait until next week guy, and start seeing him for what he is, a second tier player who was picked too early in a draft that makes him look worse than he actually is.

However, this should also be seen as further proof that our front office is seeing things in a clear manner. Argue it all you want, they got a comparable player and a draft pick in return for a player who overvalues his own worth and would have been impossible to sign at the rate he has earned.

You have 75 posts.

What the hell do you know?

LA Grant · October 21, 2017

Almost midway through the season, and I'm still going back and forth on the trades.

At this point, it reads to me like the reason they moved on from Sammy was his attitude and injury history. I think Sammy was not expendable but he was a valuable asset, and McDermott was more convinced with getting the defense right in the first year. Next year they have 6 picks in the first three rounds (not gonna get a particularly high first rounder from KC, turns out) and that's where you'll see them rebuild the offense, imo. To that end, it's a win. The defense is great and it's because of the secondary, of which all four starters are new. That's not nothing.

We've all talked about the rationale behind the Watkins ad nauseum and where the disconnect lies is his perceived value. Yes, with Watkins in the lineup this offense is better than what it is today, despite his glaring inconsistent play. That's where most of the opponents of the trade seem to be hanging their hat, that with him in the lineup the offense is better. This really isn't what the dispute is about, the dispute is he worth $15m+ a year? That's most likely the minimum amount he would have accepted to stay in Buffalo. Yes, you could have kept franchised him next year but that would have cost lots of money and based on his production he isn't nearly worth that much. Plus you then get a player who could very well sit out preseason and isn't all in and that isn't the sort of players they want to build this team with.

I mentioned in the Matthews thread that he hasn't even done anything for the Bills and I'm kind of already a fan of him based purely on what I've heard from him in interviews and on WGR. Talk to any Eagles fans, they're all high on him. He has the exact same personality as from what I've seen/heard from McDermott and TreDavious White; McDermott this week talked specifically about White's mental toughness as a reason they valued him.

Watkins has more talent, but clearly less mental toughness. He alienated fans with his instagram, his demand to his agents for more targets, his "me" focused attitude and willingness to publicly blame others. People have pointed this out, and it's also been pointed out that Watkins was never specifically wrong necessarily, he should've received more targets and been more involved, but his approach wasn't great, and he didn't have the production to match his talk — it was all potential.

Matthews makes more sense, and he had a better injury history — ironic since obviously he's dealing with injury and Sammy isn't. Aside from the TNF game against the Niners, Sammy hasn't done anything with the Rams, so even though Matthews and the Bills offense have produced worse than last year, partly because you're without Sammy, it's not like Watkins has embarrassed the Bills by becoming a huge superstar in LA. Its not out of the question, though, because their offense is doing really well, and if Goff continues to improve, he has a lot of weapons around him. Is it more likely that Sammy becomes a megastar and makes the Bills look foolish, or do Matthews & Tyrod get into a rhythm and get things moving while Sammy deals with injuries and primadonna-ness on targets? Even money, I'd say.

The worst thing about the trade is how it screws over Tyrod, most of all. He and Sammy showed flashes of developing a rhythm. This offseason, you saw stories about Tyrod flying Sammy and others to him so they could practice and work on their dynamic.

Now his top 2 receivers (on the depth chart) he's just meeting. That's going to make a difference. And of course Tyrod's strength is the deep ball, which is where you really miss Sammy's potential for big plays downfield due to his speed.

It's very frustrating in this regard, because Matthews may end up being a great fit, enough so that they resign him (the idea of the trade being primarily about Watkins' contract doesn't work, since Matthews is also in a contract year). He fits McDermott better, and probably the type of offense they want to run better, but he doesn't fit Tyrod Taylor as much as Sammy Watkins did. That has to be a factor when you talk about the offense's lack of production in the passing game, as much as the o-line replacements or the new coach/scheme.

In a sense, you're trading offensive production for a better locker room. No doubt to me the locker room is better — the players have clearly all bought in, and especially on defense, you're seeing how that mentality translates to the field. How many penalties has the defense taken this year compared to the two Rex years? They're more like the Jim Schwartz defense with how they swarm to the ball, always go for the strip, and good tackle technique.

stinky finger · October 21, 2017

If you are playing "chances" take a look at the history with Bills second round picks.

Hint: not good.

'Twas a huge risk for the right to likely draft another Kujo or James Hardy etc...........and has resulted in what to this point is a historically bad WR corps by league standards.

Been 20 years or more since any WR corps has been less productive in the NFL thru this point of a season.........and the league was very less receiver friendly back then.

Excellent point.

Let's return the 2nd rounder to LA.

Wanting to win vs. commitment to winning.

That is a key underlying factor in why the Bills are an afterthought of an organization.

Ralph wanted to win.......but only on HIS terms.

The Rooney's WANTED to get rid of Ben Roethisberger after his motorcycle accident..........then after his sex crime charges.........but winning being the object of the game......they swallowed their pride and kept winning and nobody thinks any less of them as a result.

Beane and McDermott made a big mistake trading Watkins. They would be 5-0 and atop the AFC right now. They could have gotten Gaines and Matthews for next to nothing.......they were throw ins who both teams were looking to get rid of.

See my subsequent post.

When you come to Buffalo.......low expectations allow you to make moves that you wouldn't make in a good organization........because they aren't in the best interest of the team winning.

Wanting to win on your terms versus simply being committed to it.

I've said it before........arrogance disguised as "process".

I thought they horribly botched the draft trading out rather than picking a QB........which is par for the course for the Bills really. Nothing new. They've never taken a QB with their original first pick in round 1. EVER.

Comparison valid.

Tre is a good player.........Zay they traded up for and he's been one of the league's worst players.........Dawkins and Milano are only playing because they are McD's guys. I like what I've seen from Dawkins.......but on a curve.......not anything that tells me he's a starting tackle in the NFL. He could easily become another Terrance Pennington(thanks dave!).

For a know-it-all you know nothing.

On the qb issue I strenuously argued to draft a qb. So you and I are in accord on that issue. However, that is not to say that the new regime's stance was wrong. If they believed that the next draft class offered better opportunities then I'm not going to criticize them for not using a high pick on a qb in the last draft. On the other hand I will howl if they don't draft a qb with a high pick this year.

Your commitment vs wanting to win argument is utterly absurd. The HC and GM are making decisions that you disagree with and to a lesser extent I also don't agree with. To twist their decisions into your ludicrous paradigm of wanting vs commitment to win is so far fetched that it falls into the realm of nonsensical cosmic discussion that happens when smoking some potent dope.

Especially at the end of his reign Ralph Wilson was running a mom and pop operation in a new business world that he wasn't interested in seriously participating in. What is going on now has no relevancy to that exhausting and depressing era. Bringing in Wilson and Rooneys into the discussion are you patent non-sequitur responses that relate to nothing that was said.

Where you and I have a fundamental disagreement that won't be reconciled is that I believe that the wrestling coach came in with the intention of rebuilding the roster and the organization, top to bottom. You are making judgments based on a one year perspective. Your belief that the Bills could have been a 5-0 team with the retention of Watkins is a grand leap that has no basis. Let's face it the impact that Watkins is currently having in LA is far from demonstrating how important he could have been as a player in Buffalo. You are making an argument that goes against what you are concluding about him as a player.

Perfect

stinky finger · October 21, 2017

You mean like Zay Jones whose impact has been close to nil?

Should we cut him 5 games into his career?

stinky finger · October 21, 2017

Good post

excellent, really.

BADOLBILZ · October 21, 2017

On offense ranking their skill position players I would say that Watkins ranks maybe fifth behind Goff, Gurley, Kupp and Woods. Giving up a second round pick and a player indicates to me that they did want to lock him up. But now I'm sure their calculation has dramatically changed.

I never suggested that the Rams are a well oiled machine. But what is apparent to me is that this team has taken a dramatic step forward under the leadership of their new HC and with the major improvement of their young qb who was overwhelmed in his rookie year.

I have never compared Zay Jones to Watkins. You are creating one of your typical patented manufactured arguments to support your exaggerated claims about Watkins. First, two first round picks were invested in Watkins. Was that rich investment worth it? The obvious answer is no. Second, Watkins was a much more expensive player with his expectation of getting a bank vault level of contract. Is the production to cost ratio worth it for Buffalo or even LA? I would right now, no.

You may be giving up on Zay Jones but I am not. It's not unusual for receivers to struggle in their first year. What I can say for sure is that the high expectation that Whaley had for Watkins didn't materialize in Buffalo and the expectations that the Rams had for Watkins isn't materializing in LA.

I have never made the argument of diminishing Watkins's talent. But I understand why McDermott didn't want him on his roster. I'm starting to get the sense that the Rams have a better understanding as to why he wasn't in Buffalo's plans now that they have had an inside view of what he is as a player and as a teammate.

When you say that Woods is a better player than Watkins.........you basically announce yourself as an idiot with an agenda........the two lined up across from each other for 3 seasons and it was no contest. That's why only idiots are parroting you. :lol:

I'm not giving up on Zay Jones........that f*cker had better turn into a good player they coughed up a second and third round pick for him. :doh:

GG · October 22, 2017

No. You don't get to use hindsight and all the crap about EJ being a fourth round talent and Goff went first round blah, blah, blah. Compare their rookie years. EJ looked better his rookie year than Goff did. All off-season people were saying the Rams blew it with Goff. And EJ looked decent for a rookie.

You want to give the Rams credit for trying to prop up a young QB with Sammy, and at the same time blast the Bills for doing the same thing with the same exact receiver. It's ridiculous. It just shows your bias.

Goff didn't get benched toward the end of his rookie year, and his coach didn't throw a hissy fit in the off-season with the GM to bring in a real QB.

stinky finger · October 22, 2017

When you say that Woods is a better player than Watkins.........you basically announce yourself as an idiot with an agenda........the two lined up across from each other for 3 seasons and it was no contest. That's why only idiots are parroting you.

I'm not giving up on Zay Jones........that f*cker had better turn into a good player they coughed up a second and third round pick for him.

a differing opinion (well founded btw) = idiot with an agenda?

wrong again, stooge.

BADOLBILZ · October 22, 2017

Prefer less talented but more polished products?

In its own way extending a GM that likes going high talent with some red flags to maximize overall skill and then firing him for a regime that wants no red flags was a bit akin to the constant 34 - 43 - 34 shifts.

We had stocked the cabinet with a certain type of player and then brought in a guy that was incompatible with those players.

Exactly..........and that's where the real root of the problem with the organization is.........ownership doesn't understand football and the consequences of their hires.........and fwiw........time and again Pegula's hires don't seem to understand that Pegula isn't actually all-in on them.........he just gives them a lot of freedom and holds them accountable if it doesn't work out.

If they understood that.......perhaps they would not dig holes for themselves the way Rex did forcing his D system onto a successful group of defenders and McD has done unnecessarily dismantling a top 10 offense.

Coach Tuesday · October 22, 2017

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