Sammy watch

[IDBillzFan]

i wish we could talk about people with regular jobs like we talk about athletes. Word on the street is people knew coming out of college that Joe became an accountant for money. He's not trying to get his CFA. He's not a team guy. The most interesting comment: He's not a guy who would be an accountant for free.

 

If Joe were guaranteed $20M for four years of work in spite of being considered a malcontent slacker who kept complaining about his job, perhaps we WOULD talk about him like we talk about athletes.

[26CornerBlitz]

@theMMQB

10 Things @Andy_Benoit Thinks: Sammy Watkins’s struggles, Falcons’ wrinkle for Brady, keys for Packers on defense

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/10/20/week-7-preview-analysis-sammy-watkins-rams-struggles

 

1. Rams fans are wondering why Sammy Watkins hasn’t produced. Don’t fret. For one, Watkins, who doesn’t have a great initial burst, has shown juice in his cuts once he gets into his route. He can work himself open. Secondly, the Rams have been designing plays for Watkins, and several times they’ve worked but the ball, for various reasons, didn’t find him. Head coach Sean McVay knows how to get playmakers involved. The Watkins-Goff relationship will blossom eventually—though maybe not this week, given that Watkins faces Cardinals shutdown corner Patrick Peterson in London.

[BringBackOrton]

@theMMQB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 Things @Andy_Benoit Thinks: Sammy Watkinss struggles, Falcons wrinkle for Brady, keys for Packers on defense

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/10/20/week-7-preview-analysis-sammy-watkins-rams-struggles

 

1. Rams fans are wondering why Sammy Watkins hasnt produced. Dont fret. For one, Watkins, who doesnt have a great initial burst, has shown juice in his cuts once he gets into his route. He can work himself open. Secondly, the Rams have been designing plays for Watkins, and several times theyve worked but the ball, for various reasons, didnt find him. Head coach Sean McVay knows how to get playmakers involved. The Watkins-Goff relationship will blossom eventuallythough maybe not this week, given that Watkins faces Cardinals shutdown corner Patrick Peterson in London.

Doesn't have great initial burst?

 

Opinion discarded.

[thenorthremembers]

The Sammy thing has been on my mind so I wanted to go back and look at a few things to see what the reality of the "Sammy Situation" is/was.

 

37 receivers were drafted between 2014 and 2016. Statistically (Catch %, Rec/GM, Yrds/GM, TD/GM, Avg) they stack up like this

 

25/37 (67%)- Statistically worse than Sammy

8/37- (22%) Statistically better than Sammy

4/37- (11%) Statistically comparable to Sammy

 

The tough part about the analysis for both Sammy, and in the same sense the Bills organization is that of the 12 players who were better than or equal to Sammy’s production 7 or (7/12) 58% of them came from his draft class (15 players picked after Sammy). Which means Whaley picked a player at number four who would up being worse or equal to (7/15) 47% of the players drafted at his same position.

 

When you look at the overall statistical analysis Sammy compares favorably to players like Kelvin Benjamin, Sterling Shepard, Tyreek Hill and Jordan Matthews. Anyone who expects Sammy to breakout as elite in his fourth season isn’t playing the odds well, everyone needs to stop looking at Sammy as a wait until next week guy, and start seeing him for what he is, a second tier player who was picked too early in a draft that makes him look worse than he actually is.

 

However, this should also be seen as further proof that our front office is seeing things in a clear manner. Argue it all you want, they got a comparable player and a draft pick in return for a player who overvalues his own worth and would have been impossible to sign at the rate he has earned.

[boyst]

The Sammy thing has been on my mind so I wanted to go back and look at a few things to see what the reality of the "Sammy Situation" is/was.

 

37 receivers were drafted between 2014 and 2016. Statistically (Catch %, Rec/GM, Yrds/GM, TD/GM, Avg) they stack up like this

 

25/37 (67%)- Statistically worse than Sammy

8/37- (22%) Statistically better than Sammy

4/37- (11%) Statistically comparable to Sammy

 

The tough part about the analysis for both Sammy, and in the same sense the Bills organization is that of the 12 players who were better than or equal to Sammys production 7 or (7/12) 58% of them came from his draft class (15 players picked after Sammy). Which means Whaley picked a player at number four who would up being worse or equal to (7/15) 47% of the players drafted at his same position.

 

When you look at the overall statistical analysis Sammy compares favorably to players like Kelvin Benjamin, Sterling Shepard, Tyreek Hill and Jordan Matthews. Anyone who expects Sammy to breakout as elite in his fourth season isnt playing the odds well, everyone needs to stop looking at Sammy as a wait until next week guy, and start seeing him for what he is, a second tier player who was picked too early in a draft that makes him look worse than he actually is.

 

However, this should also be seen as further proof that our front office is seeing things in a clear manner. Argue it all you want, they got a comparable player and a draft pick in return for a player who overvalues his own worth and would have been impossible to sign at the rate he has earned.

elite decoy, though.

[BringBackFergy]

The Sammy thing has been on my mind so I wanted to go back and look at a few things to see what the reality of the "Sammy Situation" is/was.

 

37 receivers were drafted between 2014 and 2016. Statistically (Catch %, Rec/GM, Yrds/GM, TD/GM, Avg) they stack up like this

 

25/37 (67%)- Statistically worse than Sammy

8/37- (22%) Statistically better than Sammy

4/37- (11%) Statistically comparable to Sammy

 

The tough part about the analysis for both Sammy, and in the same sense the Bills organization is that of the 12 players who were better than or equal to Sammy’s production 7 or (7/12) 58% of them came from his draft class (15 players picked after Sammy). Which means Whaley picked a player at number four who would up being worse or equal to (7/15) 47% of the players drafted at his same position.

 

When you look at the overall statistical analysis Sammy compares favorably to players like Kelvin Benjamin, Sterling Shepard, Tyreek Hill and Jordan Matthews. Anyone who expects Sammy to breakout as elite in his fourth season isn’t playing the odds well, everyone needs to stop looking at Sammy as a wait until next week guy, and start seeing him for what he is, a second tier player who was picked too early in a draft that makes him look worse than he actually is.

 

However, this should also be seen as further proof that our front office is seeing things in a clear manner. Argue it all you want, they got a comparable player and a draft pick in return for a player who overvalues his own worth and would have been impossible to sign at the rate he has earned.

I'm pretty much in this boat. There's a chance...a chance we traded away a super star/elite WR. But the probabilities are that we traded an above average WR for another above average CB and a second round pick while not having the burden of a hefty, elite WR contract next year had we kept him. Either that, or he walks and we stand there with our dicks hanging out of our pants. I'm good with what our new FO did.

[JohnC]

I have been in the column of people who have acknowledged Watkins's talents. But regardless of the issue of being overrated or not what is obvious is that he is not the type of guy that McDermott wants to invest heavily in $$$$. The new HC made a decision very early in his tenure when he was assessing the roster that he wasn't going to pick up his option. The HC and GM have a template for the type of players they want to work with, and he doesn't fit their preferred mold.

 

Although Watkins has not been much of a factor in LA I'm confident that he will emerge as a player. As far as I'm concerned the Bills made the right decision for themselves and in the long run so will LA. And odds are that the lesser talent, Matthews, will end up being as productive a player as the one that left the scene in western NY.

Edited October 20, 2017 by JohnC

[BADOLBILZ]

I'm pretty much in this boat. There's a chance...a chance we traded away a super star/elite WR. But the probabilities are that we traded an above average WR for another above average CB and a second round pick while not having the burden of a hefty, elite WR contract next year had we kept him. Either that, or he walks and we stand there with our dicks hanging out of our pants. I'm good with what our new FO did.

 

 

If you are playing "chances" take a look at the history with Bills second round picks.

 

Hint: not good.

 

'Twas a huge risk for the right to likely draft another Kujo or James Hardy etc...........and has resulted in what to this point is a historically bad WR corps by league standards.

 

Been 20 years or more since any WR corps has been less productive in the NFL thru this point of a season.........and the league was very less receiver friendly back then.

[Kelly the Dog]

If you are playing "chances" take a look at the history with Bills second round picks.

 

Hint: not good.

 

'Twas a huge risk for the right to likely draft another Kujo or James Hardy etc...........and has resulted in what to this point is a historically bad WR corps by league standards.

 

Been 20 years or more since any WR corps has been less productive in the NFL thru this point of a season.........and the league was very less receiver friendly back then.

Just curious as to why you would think that any one of the last 66 years of Bills number two picks have any relevance whatsoever to how Beane and McD are going to draft.

 

I can help. It's zero.

[BADOLBILZ]

I have been in the column of people who have acknowledged Watkins's talents. But regardless of the issue of being overrated or not what is obvious is that he is not the type of guy that McDermott wants to invest heavily in $$$$. The new HC made a decision very early in his tenure when he was assessing the roster that he wasn't going to pick up his option. The HC and GM have a template for the type of players they want to work with, and he doesn't fit their preferred mold.

 

Although Watkins has not been much of a factor in LA I'm confident that he will emerge as a player. As far as I'm concerned the Bills made the right decision for themselves and in the long run so will LA. And odds are that the lesser talent, Matthews, will end up being as productive a player as the one that left the scene in western NY.

 

Wanting to win vs. commitment to winning.

 

That is a key underlying factor in why the Bills are an afterthought of an organization.

 

Ralph wanted to win.......but only on HIS terms.

 

The Rooney's WANTED to get rid of Ben Roethisberger after his motorcycle accident..........then after his sex crime charges.........but winning being the object of the game......they swallowed their pride and kept winning and nobody thinks any less of them as a result.

 

Beane and McDermott made a big mistake trading Watkins. They would be 5-0 and atop the AFC right now. They could have gotten Gaines and Matthews for next to nothing.......they were throw ins who both teams were looking to get rid of.

Just curious as to why you would think that any one of the last 66 years of Bills number two picks have any relevance whatsoever to how Beane and McD are going to draft.

 

I can help. It's zero.

 

 

See my subsequent post.

 

When you come to Buffalo.......low expectations allow you to make moves that you wouldn't make in a good organization........because they aren't in the best interest of the team winning.

 

Wanting to win on your terms versus simply being committed to it.

 

I've said it before........arrogance disguised as "process".

 

I thought they horribly botched the draft trading out rather than picking a QB........which is par for the course for the Bills really. Nothing new. They've never taken a QB with their original first pick in round 1. EVER.

 

Comparison valid.

 

Tre is a good player.........Zay they traded up for and he's been one of the league's worst players.........Dawkins and Milano are only playing because they are McD's guys. I like what I've seen from Dawkins.......but on a curve.......not anything that tells me he's a starting tackle in the NFL. He could easily become another Terrance Pennington(thanks dave!).

[Kelly the Dog]

Wanting to win vs. commitment to winning.

 

That is a key underlying factor in why the Bills are an afterthought of an organization.

 

Ralph wanted to win.......but only on HIS terms.

 

The Rooney's WANTED to get rid of Ben Roethisberger after his motorcycle accident..........then after his sex crime charges.........but winning being the object of the game......they swallowed their pride and kept winning and nobody thinks any less of them as a result.

 

Beane and McDermott made a big mistake trading Watkins. They would be 5-0 and atop the AFC right now. They could have gotten Gaines and Matthews for next to nothing.......they were throw ins who both teams were looking to get rid of.

 

 

See my subsequent post.

 

When you come to Buffalo.......low expectations allow you to make moves that you wouldn't make in a good organization........because they aren't in the best interest of the team winning.

 

Wanting to win on your terms versus simply being committed to it.

 

I've said it before........arrogance disguised as "process".

 

I thought they horribly botched the draft trading out rather than picking a QB........which is par for the course for the Bills really. Nothing new. They've never taken a QB with their original first pick in round 1. EVER.

 

Comparison valid.

 

Tre is a good player.........Zay they traded up for and he's been one of the league's worst players.........Dawkins and Milano are only playing because they are McD's guys. I like what I've seen from Dawkins.......but on a curve.......not anything that tells me he's a starting tackle in the NFL. He could easily become another Terrance Pennington(thanks dave!).

I agree with your analysis of the players, although I think Zay will come around. But totally disagree on Beane and McD having low expectations (or that the low expectations on them) would change their draft thinking.

 

It's possible that is true for someone who has been part of taking over franchises before who later comes here. But not two young guys in their first jobs. You can tell that by their merit badge versus meritocracy approach already. These guys think they have the right idea on how to build a team only becaus they have never done it before. Their expectations are sky high because they haven't failed yet.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Kelly the Dog

[BADOLBILZ]

I agree with your analysis of the players, although I think Zay will come around. But totally disagree on Beane and McD having low expectations (or that the low expectations on them) would change their draft thinking.

 

It's possible that is true for someone who has been part of taking over franchises before who later comes here. But not two young guys in their first jobs. You can tell that by their merit badge versus meritocracy approach already. These guys think they have the right idea on how to build a team only becaus they have never done it before. Their expectations are sky high because they haven't failed yet.

 

 

Oh I agree with you on THEIR expectations.

 

I am saying that the organization doesn't have the kind of expectations that a team like the Steelers has.

 

You don't come to Pittsburgh after a disappointing season and tear the place down.

 

But Donahoe could do it here.

 

And that's been the case with most incoming regimes.

 

They might not get a blank check but they are allowed to f*ck up just about anything else they want.

 

Bills be Billsy.

 

That goes up to the owners box........football cluelessness up there is a problem.

[CommonCents]

 

Wanting to win vs. commitment to winning.

 

That is a key underlying factor in why the Bills are an afterthought of an organization.

 

Ralph wanted to win.......but only on HIS terms.

 

The Rooney's WANTED to get rid of Ben Roethisberger after his motorcycle accident..........then after his sex crime charges.........but winning being the object of the game......they swallowed their pride and kept winning and nobody thinks any less of them as a result.

 

Beane and McDermott made a big mistake trading Watkins. They would be 5-0 and atop the AFC right now. They could have gotten Gaines and Matthews for next to nothing.......they were throw ins who both teams were looking to get rid of.

 

 

 

See my subsequent post.

 

When you come to Buffalo.......low expectations allow you to make moves that you wouldn't make in a good organization........because they aren't in the best interest of the team winning.

 

Wanting to win on your terms versus simply being committed to it.

 

I've said it before........arrogance disguised as "process".

 

I thought they horribly botched the draft trading out rather than picking a QB........which is par for the course for the Bills really. Nothing new. They've never taken a QB with their original first pick in round 1. EVER.

 

Comparison valid.

 

Tre is a good player.........Zay they traded up for and he's been one of the league's worst players.........Dawkins and Milano are only playing because they are McD's guys. I like what I've seen from Dawkins.......but on a curve.......not anything that tells me he's a starting tackle in the NFL. He could easily become another Terrance Pennington(thanks dave!).

It's like you spent the last month attending Bad Takes University.

 

Big Ben and Watkins comparison. Strettttttttch.

 

Big Ben (*^*&%^$^#off the field.

Sammy Watkins (*^*&%^$^#on and off the field.

 

A teams best players need to do more than just cash checks. Big Ben came in and won games. Sammy is all about Sammy and occasionally torches a bad secondary.

 

The WR position has been mismanaged a ton but at this point you would be better editing your posts. Take out the Watkins and put in Woods, it would still suck but a little bit less.

[BADOLBILZ]

It's like you spent the last month attending Bad Takes University.

 

Big Ben and Watkins comparison. Strettttttttch.

 

Big Ben (*^*&%^$^#off the field.

Sammy Watkins (*^*&%^$^#on and off the field.

 

A teams best players need to do more than just cash checks. Big Ben came in and won games. Sammy is all about Sammy and occasionally torches a bad secondary.

 

The WR position has been mismanaged a ton but at this point you would be better editing your posts. Take out the Watkins and put in Woods, it would still suck but a little bit less.

 

 

Dude, you've ALWAYS been an idiot.......that's not likely to change so excuse me if I take your opinion with a .

 

The list of people who were dead certain that trading Marshawn Lynch for some magic beans was a good move was LOONNNNNNNNNGGGGGGG.........and they still have a hard time getting off of that opinion("we had no choice" ) despite the subsequent championship team Lynch became the identity of.

 

Same with Peters.

 

Rather than point out that obvious duo............I just gave you a perfect example of a player that a good organization wanted GONE...........for very real, very bad reasons.......not the subjective or contractual bickering nonsense that the Bills succumb too............but they held on to because they were committed to winning.

[JohnC]

 

Wanting to win vs. commitment to winning.

 

That is a key underlying factor in why the Bills are an afterthought of an organization.

 

Ralph wanted to win.......but only on HIS terms.

 

The Rooney's WANTED to get rid of Ben Roethisberger after his motorcycle accident..........then after his sex crime charges.........but winning being the object of the game......they swallowed their pride and kept winning and nobody thinks any less of them as a result.

 

Beane and McDermott made a big mistake trading Watkins. They would be 5-0 and atop the AFC right now. They could have gotten Gaines and Matthews for next to nothing.......they were throw ins who both teams were looking to get rid of.

 

 

 

On the qb issue I strenuously argued to draft a qb. So you and I are in accord on that issue. However, that is not to say that the new regime's stance was wrong. If they believed that the next draft class offered better opportunities then I'm not going to criticize them for not using a high pick on a qb in the last draft. On the other hand I will howl if they don't draft a qb with a high pick this year.

 

Your commitment vs wanting to win argument is utterly absurd. The HC and GM are making decisions that you disagree with and to a lesser extent I also don't agree with. To twist their decisions into your ludicrous paradigm of wanting vs commitment to win is so far fetched that it falls into the realm of nonsensical cosmic discussion that happens when smoking some potent dope.

 

Especially at the end of his reign Ralph Wilson was running a mom and pop operation in a new business world that he wasn't interested in seriously participating in. What is going on now has no relevancy to that exhausting and depressing era. Bringing in Wilson and Rooneys into the discussion are you patent non-sequitur responses that relate to nothing that was said.

 

Where you and I have a fundamental disagreement that won't be reconciled is that I believe that the wrestling coach came in with the intention of rebuilding the roster and the organization, top to bottom. You are making judgments based on a one year perspective. Your belief that the Bills could have been a 5-0 team with the retention of Watkins is a grand leap that has no basis. Let's face it the impact that Watkins is currently having in LA is far from demonstrating how important he could have been as a player in Buffalo. You are making an argument that goes against what you are concluding about him as a player.

[Deranged Rhino]

For his best takes... He has to go all the way back to Marshawn and Peters.

 

Badnuts is about a season away from becoming a full blown Al Bundy.

[teef]

Everytime a poster mentions that this teamwould be 5-0 without the Sammy trade, a baby is set on fire somewhere.

[Deranged Rhino]

Everytime a poster mentions that this teamwould be 5-0 without the Sammy trade, a baby is set on fire somewhere.

 

 

It's still more than likely true.

[teef]

 

It's still more than likely true.

It's just a guess. We could easily assume Taylor is off the mark on a few throws, or that it's Watkins that got hurt as opposed to Matthews. It's all a whacky guess.

[Deranged Rhino]

It's just a guess. We could easily assume Taylor is off the mark on a few throws, or that it's Watkins that got hurt as opposed to Matthews. It's all a whacky guess.

 

It's absolutely a guess. I wouldn't say it's a whacky guess though. They were a legit WR away from beating both Cinci and Carolina, that's a guess yes, but a rather strong guess.

 

Sammy's history and chemistry with Taylor, new offense or no, makes him far more dangerous than anyone else on their roster currently. If he's in those games, everything on offense goes differently. Especially for #25.