WEEK 1: ALL 22 REVIEW - O LINE PASS PROT /QB UNFORCED ERRORS

[yungmack]

Fine work, Greek horse. Much appreciated.

[Rochesterfan]

I think the biggest thing where he can improve on is the pre snap read. If you get your read right then it helps to compartmentalize what you are looking at. I know this sounds nit picky but on that play there were only 2 possible threats to Clay, the LB that was covering him and #33. He looks out to the left to Zay, he can see that the DB on him is in zone and #33 is drifting that direction, at that point you'd hope that TT would immediately recognize that #33 is taking himself out of the play in the middle of the field and that Clay now has one on one coverage with a LB, who subsequently would be entering into that wide open space of the middle of the field. From there you'd hope he'd look back to Clay as soon as he sees #33 drifting away and find Clay for an easy TD.

 

I know, sounds like nitpicking, but I do believe that if he had a better pre snap read he'd have recognized that. Doesn't matter now, hopefully that's something he'll get better at recognizing. Still, all in all he played a good solid game.

This is literally exactly what I said in the TT thread. My issue is the safety Adams (I think) is the key. TT first read is to Zay, but the key is Adams. TT knows that Zay is coming toward the middle and that Clay is moving from the middle out. QB 101 on that play is what does the safety do. TT is looking right at him and the safety drifts outside and back. Immediately in his drop - TT should be thinking the throws goes to Clay and he should of hit the end of his drop and hit Clay right after the break at the 3 yard line with no one around him.

 

Instead TT keeps watching Zay and finally slides 2 steps 2 the left in the pocket and comes off to Clay. He makes an acceptable throw to Clay and one that I would of like to see caught, but Clay is running toward the sideline with his shoulders toward the sideline And the throw is behind him. That is a difficult catch. Most back shoulder throws are a guy running down field and then stopping and turning back , but this was a guy going 1 way having to reach behind him. It is not impossible, but it is not a catch everyone makes - especially knowing he hit is coming.

 

I do not expect Clay to make that play - I do not think he is an elite level TE. I think he is good, but Whaley and Rex wanted him and way overpayed to get him. The attempt was adequate, but he is not an elite level pass catcher. My only issue with the play and I agree fully with Magox is the read should of happened faster to get off Zay and to Clay or he had to hold it longer for Zay to clear the Safety and LB on the end line, but Clay on time was an easy TD - unless the call the push off on Clay.

[billsfan905]

The first video isn't on John Miller. He gives up quickly on the block because he doesn't want to risk a block in the back call if he stays on. On an outside zone play action Eric Wood should have given a punch with his right hand to the left shoulder of 99 on the first play while stepping with his left foot and "passing" him off to Miller. Miller wasn't in position to take over that block yet, which would technically still be in Wood's "zone".

[xRUSHx]

Wow lots of work in this thread, thanks OP I enjoyed it.

[ALF]

Great job Bocephuz , thank you especially for OL breakdown.

 

Very glad to hear Mills did well in this system , surprised Miller is having a hard time.

 

Fix RT but unfix RG . That should be easier to correct. I take back my harsh judgement of Castillo till we see more.

 

thanks also to billsfan905 , Made be feel better about Miller.

 

Edited September 14, 2017 by ALF

[Coach Tuesday]

The first video isn't on John Miller. He gives up quickly on the block because he doesn't want to risk a block in the back call if he stays on. On an outside zone play action Eric Wood should have given a punch with his right hand to the left shoulder of 99 on the first play while stepping with his left foot and "passing" him off to Miller. Miller wasn't in position to take over that block yet, which would technically still be in Wood's "zone".

 

Good stuff - please post more often!

[Max Fischer]

In re: to -

 

LINE BREAKDOWNS: 7/36 or 19% In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 19% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.. so lets say the O Line was average against the Jets.

 

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 29/36 or 81%. In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 81% of the time.

 

UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 4/36 or 11% . Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 4 unforced errors by my count. Which is under the danger line.

 

 

Do you have the completion % and yardage for each? Yards if TT took off?

[JohnnyBuffalo]

Nice work! That INT to Clay was nauseating! He needs to catch that ball period. The time TT waited to throw does look like he waited for the play to develop too long but he may have been staring down the receiver who was ultimately double covered (tough to tell with the clip) but either way Clay needs to come up with that. If TT leads him with that throw he gets his head torn off. Because it was behind him he had a chance to protect the ball from the defender, take the hit, and make the catch.

[Bocephuz]

 

...IF you have the perseverance to wade through all of the PG-13 Yipping "experts" here (was same on BBMB), you come across someone in the vein of the OP, highly knowledgeable, football astute and one who provides a critical OBJECTIVE analysis.....damn, he's good...makes "wading" worthwhile IMO...........

 

thank you sir.. I aim to be objective

Great job Bocephuz , thank you especially for OL breakdown.

 

Very glad to hear Mills did well in this system , surprised Miller is having a hard time.

 

Fix RT but unfix RG . That should be easier to correct. I take back my harsh judgement of Castillo till we see more.

 

thanks also to billsfan905 , Made be feel better about Miller.

 

 

Count me surprised on Mills, Miller and Castillo as well. This was a good start.. we'll see how it plays out on the road against a recent Super Bowl contender this week.

The first video isn't on John Miller. He gives up quickly on the block because he doesn't want to risk a block in the back call if he stays on. On an outside zone play action Eric Wood should have given a punch with his right hand to the left shoulder of 99 on the first play while stepping with his left foot and "passing" him off to Miller. Miller wasn't in position to take over that block yet, which would technically still be in Wood's "zone".

 

If he takes a better angle and is a little quicker there then he wouldn't have been in the position to block in the back.

[tlfcbb]

Shout out to the OP. This is a fantastic job. I also found it very refreshing that the OP listened to subjective argument and changed his opinion on the Clay goal line drop. Very well done OP.

 

 

Mark Campbell would've caught it.

 

EDIT: Anyone else care to give a ratio of Taylor/Clay fault on that play? To repeat, mine is 35/65 Taylor/Clay.

 

Mine is 10/90 Taylor/Clay (and I really like Clay). A catchable ball is never a bad throw. I agree a better/perfect throw would have made the catch easier but at the level Clay plays, that should have been a catch. You will see many more of that type of pass caught that dropped in the NFL today.

[YattaOkasan]

Shout out to the OP. This is a fantastic job. I also found it very refreshing that the OP listened to subjective argument and changed his opinion on the Clay goal line drop. Very well done OP.

 

 

Mine is 10/90 Taylor/Clay (and I really like Clay). A catchable ball is never a bad throw. I agree a better/perfect throw would have made the catch easier but at the level Clay plays, that should have been a catch. You will see many more of that type of pass caught that dropped in the NFL today.

Agreed on the OP listening to poster about the reads. I think Clay can make that catch.

 

Any thoughts on going back to Zay on that read? I didn't notice until today but hes coming across the back of the EZ open at the start of the throw. I am with poster above at 35/65 Taylor Clay. Sorta just a crappy play. Hopefully its cleaned up for this weekend.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Mine is 10/90 Taylor/Clay (and I really like Clay). A catchable ball is never a bad throw. I agree a better/perfect throw would have made the catch easier but at the level Clay plays, that should have been a catch. You will see many more of that type of pass caught that dropped in the NFL today.

 

Amen. The QB's job is to give the player a chance to make a play.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This is literally exactly what I said in the TT thread. My issue is the safety Adams (I think) is the key. TT first read is to Zay, but the key is Adams. TT knows that Zay is coming toward the middle and that Clay is moving from the middle out. QB 101 on that play is what does the safety do. TT is looking right at him and the safety drifts outside and back. Immediately in his drop - TT should be thinking the throws goes to Clay and he should of hit the end of his drop and hit Clay right after the break at the 3 yard line with no one around him.

 

Instead TT keeps watching Zay and finally slides 2 steps 2 the left in the pocket and comes off to Clay. He makes an acceptable throw to Clay and one that I would of like to see caught, but Clay is running toward the sideline with his shoulders toward the sideline And the throw is behind him. That is a difficult catch. Most back shoulder throws are a guy running down field and then stopping and turning back , but this was a guy going 1 way having to reach behind him. It is not impossible, but it is not a catch everyone makes - especially knowing he hit is coming.

 

I do not expect Clay to make that play - I do not think he is an elite level TE. I think he is good, but Whaley and Rex wanted him and way overpayed to get him. The attempt was adequate, but he is not an elite level pass catcher. My only issue with the play and I agree fully with Magox is the read should of happened faster to get off Zay and to Clay or he had to hold it longer for Zay to clear the Safety and LB on the end line, but Clay on time was an easy TD - unless the call the push off on Clay.

 

I'm afraid you're right about Clay (except I think Roman/Rex wanted him and told Whaley/Overdorf to do whatever it took to get him). I think that was the story of Rex's first year: the D was great, he was going to make them a #1 D, so we had to grab the pieces Roman needed to work the offense, RIGHT NOW, and pay whatever it took. We overpaid for a couple other guys too, Felton for one IIRC. Then when that didn't work out, left the Bills in Cap Coventry.

 

I guess I do think that a non-elite but good TE makes that catch and that's what I thought Clay was.

 

I was thinking about this issue while listening to Romo's debut as a football announcer. It was pretty clear that Romo was speed-reading the D and had the appropriate offensive reaction programmed on speed dial. (I will love to see if he can work it the same way with the Pats and Seasnakes). I am sure he would be just as fast as the play develops during the game. I think it's this, the ability to speed-read and react appropriately, that differentiates QB in the NFL. The college offenses and defenses don't prepare college QB for it these days, and it strikes me as quite likely a QB coach/OC who has many years dissecting plays on film, might not be able to teach it. It may be hard to teach - I'm sure Romo could do a "film room" on the plays after the fact and dissect them a la OC, but I wonder if he even knows what he's seeing and processing IN REAL TIME on the field to make the call. I don't know if I'm explaining myself well - I think in real time, the QB doesn't have time to say "OK the safety drifts outside and back", there's probably something in the way the guy's hips or chest move that would make Romo say "he's going back")

 

I think Taylor is really still "look at the Choo Choo" in this regard. I think it's probably a skill that can be taught - but probably NOT by conventional film room work.

Edited September 14, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

I'm late, but this was a great little breakdown and observation. Well done!

 

Couple of things I'd like to mention:

 

- Not only did Taylor show signs of improvement in some areas as a passer (even if only one game), he has also shown positives in the mental aspect of the position. Two great examples were the throw away on 2nd down, and the slide near the end of the game. The throw away brought about a long 3rd down, but Taylor converted by scrambling for the sticks, which led to the Holmes TD on the following play. A throw away isn't a "positive" play, but it's not a "negative" play either, and you live to see another play. On the slide, Taylor had the awareness to make sure he picked up the 1st down before beginning his slide (that's where the ball is spotted), and not run out of bounds and stop the clock. The Bills ran off about another 90 seconds after that play, all but sealing the deal that late in a two score game.

 

Also, his leadership has been noticed and mentioned by players. Taylor has between his ears what some QBs with cannon arms desperately lack (Cutler).

 

Another thing; I said months ago that this offense would better suit Taylor, and while none of us truly knew exactly what type of offense we would see, we had a good idea. But many people disagreed and said the opposite. But if Sunday was any indication of what we can expect going forward, we should all feel comfortable with Taylor in this scheme. I still don't think we'll see big numbers from the WRs, but McCoy and the TEs may see a significant increase in their production in the passing game, balancing out the "lacking" WR numbers in a way. If that's what keeps the chains moving, who cares? But the fact that the Bills we're in shotgun so much tells me that the coaches are smart enough to not completely change the offense. There were many concepts that worked well over the last 2 years with Taylor, and just scrapping them in order to force the players to cater to scheme would be foolish. This allows the offense to have a more diverse arsenal, and gives the OC flexibility calling plays.

 

We'll still see a bunch of the Kubiak influenced offense at times, but the offense will probably use a strategy similar to modern defenses. Defenses are 4-3/3-4 in base scheme, but are in nickel more often than base. People tend to put too much emphasis on 4-3/3-4 than they should, based on that fact. It's usually nickel around 60%, base around 40%. Our offense will probably be similar to that idea, in that they'll not be in a traditional formation as often as people may have assumed would be the case.

 

That's all I wanted to add. Do you do these for the defense as well?

[Bocephuz]

I'm late, but this was a great little breakdown and observation. Well done!

 

Couple of things I'd like to mention:

 

- Not only did Taylor show signs of improvement in some areas as a passer (even if only one game), he has also shown positives in the mental aspect of the position. Two great examples were the throw away on 2nd down, and the slide near the end of the game. The throw away brought about a long 3rd down, but Taylor converted by scrambling for the sticks, which led to the Holmes TD on the following play. A throw away isn't a "positive" play, but it's not a "negative" play either, and you live to see another play. On the slide, Taylor had the awareness to make sure he picked up the 1st down before beginning his slide (that's where the ball is spotted), and not run out of bounds and stop the clock. The Bills ran off about another 90 seconds after that play, all but sealing the deal that late in a two score game.

 

Also, his leadership has been noticed and mentioned by players. Taylor has between his ears what some QBs with cannon arms desperately lack (Cutler).

 

Another thing; I said months ago that this offense would better suit Taylor, and while none of us truly knew exactly what type of offense we would see, we had a good idea. But many people disagreed and said the opposite. But if Sunday was any indication of what we can expect going forward, we should all feel comfortable with Taylor in this scheme. I still don't think we'll see big numbers from the WRs, but McCoy and the TEs may see a significant increase in their production in the passing game, balancing out the "lacking" WR numbers in a way. If that's what keeps the chains moving, who cares? But the fact that the Bills we're in shotgun so much tells me that the coaches are smart enough to not completely change the offense. There were many concepts that worked well over the last 2 years with Taylor, and just scrapping them in order to force the players to cater to scheme would be foolish. This allows the offense to have a more diverse arsenal, and gives the OC flexibility calling plays.

 

We'll still see a bunch of the Kubiak influenced offense at times, but the offense will probably use a strategy similar to modern defenses. Defenses are 4-3/3-4 in base scheme, but are in nickel more often than base. People tend to put too much emphasis on 4-3/3-4 than they should, based on that fact. It's usually nickel around 60%, base around 40%. Our offense will probably be similar to that idea, in that they'll not be in a traditional formation as often as people may have assumed would be the case.

 

That's all I wanted to add. Do you do these for the defense as well?

 

The Taylor side in bounds to keep the clock running was heady on his part. I think Clay stayed in bounds late to keep clock running at one point too. Attention to detail.. hopefully they'll be able to keep that attention to detail for 16 games.

[QB Bills]

So this is the thread where the intelligent posters dwell now. Good to see. The percentage of quality posts and posters on this board went downhill around the same time BBMB shut down. Maybe just a coincidence. So it's been refreshing to read through this. Thanks OP.

 

 

Agree with most that there were a lot of good signs with the passing game on Sunday. Would still like that threat of the deep ball just to keep the defenses honest. We'll see how they handle that going forward.

[Bocephuz]

So this is the thread where the intelligent posters dwell now. Good to see. The percentage of quality posts and posters on this board went downhill around the same time BBMB shut down. Maybe just a coincidence. So it's been refreshing to read through this. Thanks OP.

 

 

Agree with most that there were a lot of good signs with the passing game on Sunday. Would still like that threat of the deep ball just to keep the defenses honest. We'll see how they handle that going forward.

thanks.. I'll try and do one of these each week .. time permitting.

[dave mcbride]

thanks.. I'll try and do one of these each week .. time permitting.

It's greatly appreciated!

[Alphadawg7]

Shout out to the OP. This is a fantastic job. I also found it very refreshing that the OP listened to subjective argument and changed his opinion on the Clay goal line drop. Very well done OP.

 

 

Mine is 10/90 Taylor/Clay (and I really like Clay). A catchable ball is never a bad throw. I agree a better/perfect throw would have made the catch easier but at the level Clay plays, that should have been a catch. You will see many more of that type of pass caught that dropped in the NFL today.

 

This is where I am at too.

So this is the thread where the intelligent posters dwell now. Good to see. The percentage of quality posts and posters on this board went downhill around the same time BBMB shut down. Maybe just a coincidence. So it's been refreshing to read through this. Thanks OP.

 

 

Agree with most that there were a lot of good signs with the passing game on Sunday. Would still like that threat of the deep ball just to keep the defenses honest. We'll see how they handle that going forward.

 

Yeah, and thats one of the reasons I have been so active in this thread and Shaws thread...finally a thread with real discussion and debate. Im cool with the opposing opinions, and even though I greatly disagree on the Clay play with a few people, I respect their opinion and approach to that opinion. Rather enjoyed real back and forth discussion on a topic here rather than the usual stream of non sense thats plagued topics on this board most the off season.

 

TBH, I am floored that a topic like the TT and Clay subject of the INT has NOT turned into a TT bashing session like any topic usually does around here. It actually stayed almost predominantly on analytics of just the play and not some TT sucks rants. Very refreshing to say the least

[Rochesterfan]

I'm afraid you're right about Clay (except I think Roman/Rex wanted him and told Whaley/Overdorf to do whatever it took to get him). I think that was the story of Rex's first year: the D was great, he was going to make them a #1 D, so we had to grab the pieces Roman needed to work the offense, RIGHT NOW, and pay whatever it took. We overpaid for a couple other guys too, Felton for one IIRC. Then when that didn't work out, left the Bills in Cap Coventry.

 

I guess I do think that a non-elite but good TE makes that catch and that's what I thought Clay was.

 

I was thinking about this issue while listening to Romo's debut as a football announcer. It was pretty clear that Romo was speed-reading the D and had the appropriate offensive reaction programmed on speed dial. (I will love to see if he can work it the same way with the Pats and Seasnakes). I am sure he would be just as fast as the play develops during the game. I think it's this, the ability to speed-read and react appropriately, that differentiates QB in the NFL. The college offenses and defenses don't prepare college QB for it these days, and it strikes me as quite likely a QB coach/OC who has many years dissecting plays on film, might not be able to teach it. It may be hard to teach - I'm sure Romo could do a "film room" on the plays after the fact and dissect them a la OC, but I wonder if he even knows what he's seeing and processing IN REAL TIME on the field to make the call. I don't know if I'm explaining myself well - I think in real time, the QB doesn't have time to say "OK the safety drifts outside and back", there's probably something in the way the guy's hips or chest move that would make Romo say "he's going back")

 

I think Taylor is really still "look at the Choo Choo" in this regard. I think it's probably a skill that can be taught - but probably NOT by conventional film room work.

I agree fully- it is easy to diagnose after the fact, but live it may be difficult, but I think you are right that is what differentiates QBs at the his level.

 

I think that is why a guy like Peyton could play the way he does, but I do not think he could teach someone to do what he did.