WEEK 1: ALL 22 REVIEW - O LINE PASS PROT /QB UNFORCED ERRORS

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Amazing breakdown. Fantastic.

 

Looks like a guard is on the list for April 2018.

 

Miller's interviews really tell a lot, he's a very meek kind of person, very quiet and soft spoken. Tells a lot IMHO.

 

Maybe 2 if we don't plan on trying Groy at one of the OG spots. Incognito is no spring chicken.

[Bocephuz]

Finished reading it. Excellent breakdown! Did you see any plays with receivers running wide open that Tyrod missed? This is the prevailing narrative about Tyrod but I haven't seen it from any reviews of this game.

 

Buffalo News should have Bocephuz and Shaw66 as columnists. I'm not paying a monthly subscription fee to read Jerry Sullivan whine abour random crap. Crazy that content provided for free right here on TSW is better than the paid professionals.

 

Jerry Sullivan is awful.. If I see his name in the byline I skip over it. He adds no value. And the fact that they charge now? Please. There are so many other good sources (BillsWire, Buffalo Rumblings etc...) to get better informed Bills content.

 

As to your question.. in the past I would usually see several instances of TT not looking the way of open receivers.. or .. TT seeing them but not daring to pull the trigger. For this Jets game however.. I really didn't see that at all. On the several plays where they were clearly trying to focus on deeper routes the WRs really didn't have any separation

Amazing breakdown. Fantastic.

 

Looks like a guard is on the list for April 2018.

 

Miller's interviews really tell a lot, he's a very meek kind of person, very quiet and soft spoken. Tells a lot IMHO.

 

Thanks.

 

I'm really hoping Miller turns it around so we don't have to start at square 1 again. Regardless of Miller ..Incognito is getting older too so I hope they draft a guard in 1st 3 rounds next year

[Herb62]

 

thanks.. they take a while to create. .glad some people find them useful

Yes very much appreciated

[Magox]

I mentioned it at least a few times how the biggest mistake on that interception wasnt the placement of the throw Or the non catch by Clay rather the timing of TT's throw. If TT had made the right read and threw it on time which would have been when Clay made his break it would have been an easy touchdown

[billykaykay]

These are great as usual. Thanks, again.

 

I think that gif of the goalline play to Clay again shows that he should have caught the ball, hits him in two hands, in addition to being a late throw and behind him. But he has to catch that. I would expect Nick O'Leary to catch that.

 

One thing that came to mind though as I read the post was that there probably was a good chance that TT waited so long because the play before the ball was batted down at the line. If you look close, the Jets DE is in his eyeline when waiting for Clay to get open. If he throws early as everyone wanted him to, including me, it could be batted down again. So he waits the extra beat, the DE is taken a little wider by Glenn, and then TT throws. That could be it in a nutshell, rather than he holds it way too long like he often does.

 

Still not a good pass and still needs to be caught anyway.

Yup. Four paragraphs and I agree with everything you said.

[Herb62]

 

Exactly, no one will ever agree with everything. I certainly enjoy reading peoples thoughts out opinions on things like this, so big kudos to the time it takes to do it all. And like I said, I rather enjoyed the write up, bang up job bud. The one thing I am just adamant about is Clay not getting this excuse that it was a bad pass because he has continually come up short in his time in Buffalo.

 

He is very talented and athletic, but his mental focus and lapses just frustrate me and at some point he needs to be held accountable. Too many times on key plays he runs a sloppy route, seems to dog it, drop a pass, or not even look for the ball despite running a passing route.

 

The last 2 years, there have been times where Clay was open and TT just didn't see him, and TT stated he's aware of that and talked to Clay about it. So I am hoping that some of those mental lapses came out of frustration by Clay and that an offense where TT looks for him more and the OC calls his number more will keep Clay more mentally engaged from play to play. Not that frustration is an acceptable excuse, because you need to give 100% all the time, but at least if that was a factor its possible to reduce it with a higher usage rate.

Agree can we get out of his contract next year?

[Mat68]

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not?

 

I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did /

How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate)

 

Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field.

 

DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play)

 

 

_______ ______________________

 

TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 36

 

LINE BREAKDOWNS: 7/36 or 19% In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 19% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.. so lets say the O Line was average against the Jets.

 

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 29/36 or 81%. In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 81% of the time.

 

UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 4/36 or 11% . Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 4 unforced errors by my count. Which is under the danger line.

 

BOTTOM LINE

 

 

CORDY GLENN Cordy Glenn was not his old dominant self but he was ok. He gave up a pressure in Q1 and was rotated out for Dawkins several times.

 

DION DAWKINS - was ok rotating in at LT for Glenn a few times. Did give up a pressure in Q1 but for a rookie debut coming off bench he did as well as could have been expected

 

INCOGNITO SOLID Richie was his usual stout self in pass protect.

ERIC WOOD up and down. He was generally solid. He did a good job picking up a stunt in q1 but on the other hand missed a stunt in Q2.

 

JOHN MILLER SHAKY- Miller had a really rough day. Of the 7 O Line breakdowns he was responsible for 3. He and Wood did a good job picking up a stunt in q1.. however.. he was manhandled by Leonard Williams several times. Granted Williams is an elite DT .. but Miller was pretty much dominated.

 

Q1 15:00 Miller whiffs on 99 first play of game. Gives up pressure

 

 

 

 

Q2- 6:34 Miller manhandled by 92 again

 

 

 

 

JORDAN MILLS had a really nice day. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.

 

 

 

 

O LINE PASS BLOCK GRADES

 

CORDY GLENN - B-

DION DAWKINS B-

RICHIE INCOGNITO B+

ERIC WOOD - B

JOHN MILLER - D

JORDAN MILLS - A

 

TYROD GOALLINE ERRORS - Of the 4 Unforced Errors TT committed.. 2 of them came in the first quarter on back to back plays in the redzone. If the Bills punch it in here for 7 the Jets are likely demoralized and the route is on. These 2 back to back mistakes were the only real stains on an otherwise solid day from TT

 

POOR THROWS

Q1 9:06 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT telegraphs an out route to Clay on the goalline and the DE clearly sniffs it out.. stalls his rush and jumps up to bat the ball down. TT needs to learn to not stare down here.

 

Q1 9:02 UNFORCED ERROR - TT is late and behind to Clay on the goalline causing an INT. As the Gif shows.. Clay is open right over the middle when TT hits his drop. TT has a clean pocket and should have let it go right then.. but for some reason he drifts left and by the time he throws to Clay the safety comes up and smacks him in the back causing an INT

 

 

 

TYROD POSITIVES -

MIDDLE/TIGHT END - TT continued the trend of effectively using the middle of the field (carrying that over from the last few games of 16). His footwork was also better for the most part (barring a few exceptions) and he was generally getting the ball out on time. With that being said..the Jets LBs and DBs really struggled covering the short middle area and he didnt really have to fit many of these throws into tight windows. See example below.. Matthews is wide open here.. not exactly a high degree of difficulty here

 

 

 

However.. still progress here with slants and crossing routes over the middle. The next step will be to see him complete some deep seam routes down the middle (none really attempted against Jets)

 

MOBILITY - TT generally made sound decisions to tuck and run .. picking up a few key first downs. His play at the end of Q1 (shown below) where he escapes pressure and Houdinis a throw to Matthews for a first down was simply incredible. Not many QBs have the athleticism to pull that off.

 

 

 

 

 

 

STANDING IN POCKET TAKING HIT AND DELIVERING - TT has been criticized for not standing tall in the pocket, delivering a strike and taking a hit. In the play below he hangs tough, delivers to Clay and gets popped. I hope to see more of this going forward

 

 

GAME SUMMARY

Typically when the Bills throw more than 30 times with TT at the helm they lose. Against the Jets they threw 25 times in the first half alone and 36 times overall for the game. So in this game they overcame the 30+ attempts per game curse.. let's hope that is a trend that continues. Also of note is that the assumption was that TT would predominantly be under center in this offense.. for week 1 it was the opposite.. he was in Shotgun 23 out of 36 snaps.

 

Outside of John Miller the O Line had a reasonably solid day .. giving TT time to throw on 81% of his dropbacks. TT did a decent job going over his reads and didnt really leave too much on the table. His WRs were blanketed on the deep ball attempts and in general had trouble getting any separation down the field. Great job by Dennison of carving up the middle of the field and taking advantage of what the Jets were giving them and the weakness of them defending the middle.

__ _____

 

 

POSITIVES -

 

JORDAN MILLS - i'll admit I've been a Mills basher after his performance in '16.. however.. he was very very solid against the Jets. If he can play at that level all year this offense has a shot to be decent.

 

QUICK GAME PROGRESS CONTINUES - TT is showing signs of being able to hit his drop and get the ball out quickly

.

MOBILITY - TTs mobility can be a blessing and a curse.. but at the end of the day his ability to scramble, buy time and run if necessary (when properly implemented) was an asset today.

 

MOVING THE CHAINS TT did something he hasnt necessarily done well in the past.. move the chains. TT consistently put the Bills in good situations and executed on getting first downs and controlling the ball.

 

 

NEGATIVES

 

JOHN MILLER - granted Miller was lined up against a beast in Leonard Williams.. but ouch.. he got tossed around pretty bad Sunday. I'm really hoping this was more of a case of Leonard Williams and less Miller's decline in play. Let's hope he rebounds .. because the alternative ( Ducassse) is not pretty.

 

DEEP BALL - hard to pin this on Taylor .. more on the WRs not getting behind the D.. but

 

RED ZONE - TTs 2 unforced errors on the first drive had a major impact on the flow of the 1st half. In looking back at older posts this seems to be a trend .. where he commits most of his errors in Q1 but then settles down during the game.

 

 

SIGNIFICANT PLAYS

 

Q1 15:00 - Miller whiffs on 99 gives up pressure

 

q1 14:18- Wood and Miller do a great job picking up a stunt allowing TT completion over the middle

 

q1 13:25 - O'Leary slips on out route .. TT good throw but slip causes incompletion

 

q1 - 9:06 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT telegraphs out route to Clay and DE jumps up and bats it down

 

q1 9:02 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT is late and behind Clay on goalline causing INT

 

q1 5:39 - Cordy glen beaten to the inside results in scramble/sack

 

q1 1:28 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws high and behind Clay on an open in route

 

q1 1:22 - Dawkins beaten to outside..gives up pressure.. TT has incredible escape and makes completion to Matthews

 

q2 6:34 - John Miller run over by 92 ... TT delivers ball to Clay and takes a hit

 

q2 4:51 - John Miller manhandled by 92 again

 

q2 - :57 - Clay drops out route

 

q2 :51 - Wood doesn't pick up a stunt .. SACK

 

q3 11:27 - Deep ball to Matthews is good throw but CB has good coverage

 

q3 8:36 - 5 Step drop, nice throw to Matthews over the middle

 

q4 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws a screen pass at Jordan Mills' feet.. just a plain old dud throw

I applaud your effort here. Some of the line work is easy to see and break down. I wonder on the Clay redzone series. After the batted down pass that drift you refer too, is it possible he drifted and was late so be would have a better passing lane amd avoid to passes batted?

[Alphadawg7]

I mentioned it at least a few times how the biggest mistake on that interception wasnt the placement of the throw Or the non catch by Clay rather the timing of TT's throw. If TT had made the right read and threw it on time which would have been when Clay made his break it would have been an easy touchdown

 

Ok, lets say the play could have been thrown a second sooner (you can say that about a lot of throws by even the best QB's in the league every week). The defender still had no play on the ball, it still hit Clay in both hands in front of his face, was essentially the equivalent of a back shoulder throw that any NFL receiver or TE is expected to make, and was put where only Clay could get it for the TD. You don't think our highly paid TE needs to make that catch?

Agree can we get out of his contract next year?

 

Not sure, but I am really hoping that the effort between Dennison and Tyrod to both get Clay involved more and featured more will help keep Clay fully engaged to the point he is starts to really earn that big contract. The one thing I do like about Clay is he is a complete TE in terms of a good blocker too. So I am pulling for him, but no more excuses.

[Magox]

So you don't agree with some that Int should have been a routine catch for Clay?

It's not the throw that is the criticism it's when he threw it.

[jr1]

nice job. Thanks for all the work you put into this

[Magox]

 

Ok, lets say the play could have been thrown a second sooner (you can say that about a lot of throws by even the best QB's in the league every week). The defender still had no play on the ball, it still hit Clay in both hands in front of his face, was essentially the equivalent of a back shoulder throw that any NFL receiver or TE is expected to make, and was put where only Clay could get it for the TD. You don't think our highly paid TE needs to make that catch?

 

 

 

Yes, I do think Clay should have made the catch but I also believe that there was a missed opportunity to throw the ball earlier to Clay.

 

Listen, I'm by no stretch of the imagination a TT hater or critic, I happen to believe he is a good enough QB to take us to the playoffs with a solid defense and ground game, and I also believe he had a decent to good game. From a 1 to 10 I'd have given him a solid 7.5.

 

But since we are discussing this play, I believe the biggest error was not reading that Clay had one on one coverage vs a LB and that he had an unevaded path to where his break was to be and where the ball should have been. 33 was the only true risk to Clay but he had drifted towards Zay and away from Clay and the center of field early on and by the time TT started setting his sights on Clay, it allowed him to get back into the play forcing TT to not throw the ball out in front to avoid 33. I think that's why the ball was thrown behind to avoid 33.

[Bill Murray]

what does CARs front 4 look like and how does it compare to the Jets? I suspect if our guys held up this well against a known good front in NYJ, we should probably give TT a fair amount of clean pockets next week

[The Wiz]

Can you post a clip of the pass to O'Leary that he almost took in for a TD? I don't think it was and "error" exactly but I believe on the play Taylor missed Clay open closer to the middle of the field and about 5-10 yards closer to the EZ that likely would have resulted in a TD. They ended up scoring on that drive I believe anyways but just one of those things that I was curious about.

[Bocephuz]

what does CARs front 4 look like and how does it compare to the Jets? I suspect if our guys held up this well against a known good front in NYJ, we should probably give TT a fair amount of clean pockets next week

 

According to PFF rankings the D Line rankings are about the same.

 

JETS FRONT 4

MARTIN - 47.4

WILLIAMS -81.0

WILKERSON - 46.9

JENKINS - 78.9

 

 

PANTHERS FRONT 4

JOHNSON - 41.7

PEPPERS - 48.7

SHORT - 88.6

ADDISON - 80.4

 

 

The big difference are Carolina's LBs. I doubt the short/intermediate middle stuff will be as wide open as it was against the Jets. I think the WRs will have to play a bigger role and win some more one on one battles this week.

 

JETS LBS

Lee - 37.5

Davis - 35.2

 

PANTHERS LBS

Keuchly - 82.3

Davis - 85

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Finished reading it. Excellent breakdown! Did you see any plays with receivers running wide open that Tyrod missed? This is the prevailing narrative about Tyrod but I haven't seen it from any reviews of this game.

 

Buffalo News should have Bocephuz and Shaw66 as columnists. I'm not paying a monthly subscription fee to read Jerry Sullivan whine abour random crap. Crazy that content provided for free right here on TSW is better than the paid professionals.

 

I know. I just took after someone with 62 posts shown who crapped on TBD. Yes, we have people who really don't know their football, but we also have an astounding amount of strong football knowledge and people willing to put in effort and time to share with their fellow fans. This thread being Exhibit 1.

[Bocephuz]

 

I know. I just took after someone with 62 posts shown who crapped on TBD. Yes, we have people who really don't know their football, but we also have an astounding amount of strong football knowledge and people willing to put in effort and time to share with their fellow fans. This thread being Exhibit 1.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

According to PFF rankings the D Line rankings are about the same.

 

JETS FRONT 4

MARTIN - 47.4

WILLIAMS -81.0

WILKERSON - 46.9

JENKINS - 78.9

 

 

PANTHERS FRONT 4

JOHNSON - 41.7

PEPPERS - 48.7

SHORT - 88.6

ADDISON - 80.4

 

 

The big difference are Carolina's LBs. I doubt the short/intermediate middle stuff will be as wide open as it was against the Jets. I think the WRs will have to play a bigger role and win some more one on one battles this week.

 

JETS LBS

Lee - 37.5

Davis - 35.2

 

PANTHERS LBS

Keuchly - 82.3

Davis - 85

 

Just a nit I guess - I don't think anyone would argue that Keuchly and Davis are far better players than Lee and Davis at LB.

 

I really dislike PFF's OL and DL ratings - I think they're bogus. Both are positions where results are highly dependent upon the unit working as a whole, and very difficult to break down an individual's role.

Example, as I recall under PFF's ranking in 2013 and 2014, Wood sucked as a center while playing between Kraig Urbik and Doug Legursky or Kraig Urbik and Eric Pears.

The previous year, playing between Urbik and LeVitre, Wood was decent and 2015, playing between Incognito and Miller, he also magically improved. Huh.

 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

This explains why when we kept running to the right side we had very little success. It was painful to watch at times as we seemed to wanna force it behind miller only to watch it go for a yard or two at most.

[Bocephuz]

 

Just a nit I guess - I don't think anyone would argue that Keuchly and Davis are far better players than Lee and Davis at LB.

 

I really dislike PFF's OL and DL ratings - I think they're bogus. Both are positions where results are highly dependent upon the unit working as a whole, and very difficult to break down an individual's role.

Example, as I recall under PFF's ranking in 2013 and 2014, Wood sucked as a center while playing between Kraig Urbik and Doug Legursky or Kraig Urbik and Eric Pears.

The previous year, playing between Urbik and LeVitre, Wood was decent and 2015, playing between Incognito and Miller, he also magically improved. Huh.

 

That's a good point on the OL rankings for PFF. My OL grades are only on pass protect.. it's too hard for me to analyze run blocking. And I do take into account teamwork and how the line handles stunts and things like that. Wood did really look bad when his guards sucked a few years ago..he had to bail them out a lot and they were really sloppy picking up stunts.

 

PFF does give out run blocking grades as well I believe (not sure what their methodology is but..)

This explains why when we kept running to the right side we had very little success. It was painful to watch at times as we seemed to wanna force it behind miller only to watch it go for a yard or two at most.

I can't speak for Miller's run blocking.. my analysis was only on pass protect.

 

I will say anecdotally though that Miller seemed to be standing around lost on a few run plays based on the broadcast feed.

Edited September 13, 2017 by Bocephuz

[Scott7975]

 

That's a very catchable ball with no defenders around. But how many receivers complete the catch as they're bringing the ball in and a safety barrels his helmet into the small of the back?

The ball was through his hands before he was touched so that point is moot