Lots of reasons to feel good

[Mikie2times]

Offensively in 2015 we finished 9th in DVOA in 2016 we finished 10th. In points in 2015 we finished 12th and in 2016 we finished 10th.

 

If you were provided this information without identifying the team and asked if this this phantom team was likely above/below average on offense the answer would have to be above average.

 

Defensively in 2014 we ranked 2nd in DVOA , 2015 24th, and 2016 27th. 2014 in points 4th, 2015 15th, 2016 we ranked 16th.

 

If you were provided this information without identifying the team and asked if this phantom team was likely above/below average on defense the answer would be? 2014, clearly above, that stat line is elite. 2015 and 2016 both show poor DVOA and just about dead middle of the pack in PPG. I would have to lean below average.

 

Have we fallen that far? I really don't think we have. It's assumed that we have, but it just doesn't pass the logic test.

 

In the stats above Sammy gave us something in the back half of 2015 and that was about it. Do you think it was Robert Woods who did it? Matthews=Woods. 2016 WR core or 2017? Keep in mind, no Sammy in 2016..... I would take 2017 all day. Shady is healthy and is the cornerstone. Is it reasonable to assume we will be top 15 in DVOA again? How isn't it?

 

On defense we have no clue.This was an elite defense 3 years ago with very few parts of that team left. Rex destroyed any ability for us to even get a reasonable barometer but I will try anyway. 3 pieces on the DL remain from 2014 with the 4th being Shaq. The secondary, despite the loss of two starting corners could be better with White and Gaines in zone roles compared to Gilmore and Darby on islands. Our Safety play will be vastly superior. Rex really messed things up. Is it reasonable to assume we will be in the top 15 in DVOA for defense? Certainly possible.

 

If we end up in the top 15 in both offense and defense we start to flirt with more likely than not to make the playoffs. As far as the fans right now, I think this is the opposite of 2015, instead of unrealistic optimism we have unrealistic doom.

Edited September 12, 2017 by KzooMike

[PromoTheRobot]

You could just see, unless you are a complete pessimist, the Bills looked like they had their s##t together all game. That's coaching. And it really magnifies what a clown show Rex ran. If I'm Terry Pegula, I'd sue for my money back.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

You could just see, unless you are a complete pessimist, the Bills looked like they had their s##t together all game. That's coaching. And it really magnifies what a clown show Rex ran. If I'm Terry Pegula, I'd sue for my money back.

One of the most important take-always from week 1, IMO. They looked well coached.

[Rocky Landing]

Of course, the fact that we share the division with the Pats* is still the elephant in the room. Some day, we will be discussing the real possibility of winning the division, not just a wildcard.

[Marty McFly]

It was just a relief to watch our offense get the plays in on time and not look cluelessly at the sidelines waiting for roman tommake the call. Needs improvement but there was no delay of game on offense or timeouts wasted because of it.

[Saxum]

Even special teams looked better aside from doink.

[Peace Frog]

The ultimate litmus test for this team, IMHO, is sweeping the Patriots. The last time we did that (1999) was the last time we made the playoffs.

[4merper4mer]

One of the most important take-always from week 1, IMO. They looked well coached.

Agree completely

Edited September 12, 2017 by 4merper4mer

[CATFAN]

Visiting Panther fan here but for what it's worth I think there is reason for optimism here. McD. was a great D.C. and was a good hire. He should cr ate consistency and competence.

[Peace Frog]

Visiting Panther fan here but for what it's worth I think there is reason for optimism here. McD. was a great D.C. and was a good hire. He should cr ate consistency and competence.

Welcome, Catfan. It should be a good game this Sunday. Maybe this is the year the Bills get off the snide.

[mannc]

Visiting Panther fan here but for what it's worth I think there is reason for optimism here. McD. was a great D.C. and was a good hire. He should cr ate consistency and competence.

Good to hear. About a third of the folks here wanted him fired before he'd coached a regular season game.

[CATFAN]

Welcome, Catfan. It should be a good game this Sunday. Maybe this is the year the Bills get off the snide.

Good to hear. About a third of the folks here wanted him fired before he'd coached a regular season game.

IMO Everybody wants an instant legacy and if it's not someone you think will deliver then it's a turn off.

 

i know it's cliche but I think the lunch pail approach which McD is a part of makes a big difference. The Panther D has the obvious headliner but there are a lot of other guys that are damn good. Take a well coached team with 5-7 hard nosed guys over a team with a superstar and a coach going thru the motions any day.

[JerseyBills]

 

IMO Everybody wants an instant legacy and if it's not someone you think will deliver then it's a turn off.

 

i know it's cliche but I think the lunch pail approach which McD is a part of makes a big difference. The Panther D has the obvious headliner but there are a lot of other guys that are damn good. Take a well coached team with 5-7 hard nosed guys over a team with a superstar and a coach going thru the motions any day.

Thanks for the insight.

Perfect description of this team and totally agree.

Looking forward to the matchup.. I think it's a good test for both teams. I know you guys are heavy favorites but I feel that's more perception versus matchup.. You're getting Shady in his prime still, very interested how we do versus that 3 headed monster at LB

[Mikie2times]

I forget the poster who said this, Magic something (please reveal yourself for posting what was a very rational contrarian view which I enjoy).

 

He said something like....

 

Watkins/Darby/Gilmore/Woods/TD Mike < White/Hyde/Poyer/Tolbert/Matthews/Zay/Gaines....

 

Most the board gave up when we lost the players to the left. Maybe we need to circle back on that one.

 

If you look at my post that is meant to be a barometer for the past, then look at the names on the left, how many of those guys drove the numbers toward that barometer and why specifically in 2016? Watkins didn't play. Darby was awful his second season. Gilmore was above average but soft in the run and had a down year. Woods was average. TD Mike was running behind one of the best run blocking lines in the league.

 

Hyde and Poyer are massive upgrades at Safety. Tolbert is a better compliment to McCoy. Pure bruiser and good at it running behind that same line Mike benefited from. Matthews > Woods, better size, catch radius, better production. White/Gaines, not your island corners, but for this defense, they have the perfect skill sets. Zay is athletic and will keep developing.

 

Where most of us saw the departures as reason to throw in the towel, you could just as easily argue that we upgraded this team. Oh by the way, we added a massive amount of draft picks in the process. This team is going in the right direction. Beane isn't afraid to make the decisions he feels are right despite public backlash. This is not a lost year. We have outside playoff aspirations and we have a lot of reasons to feel good about the coming years. Very excited about next week. I think we will "upset" Carolina.