10 Reasons the Bills will be better (or worse)

[BisonMan]

Culled from things I’ve read on this forum and others….along with my own twisted mind. It’s easy to see why fans can have completely different outlooks on 2017 or, like me, have no idea what we’re about to see starting at 1pm today.

 

10 Reasons the Bills will be better

1. Better Coach/GM – Rex+Doug was a dumpster fire and it’s hard to imagine McBean being worse.
2. New offensive scheme – The Bills were the top rushing team but one of the worst through the air. Dennison’s scheme will improve Tyrod’s play by making it simpler for him.
3. New defensive scheme – It was hard to imagine a Rex coached defense would drop into the bottom half of the league from being top-5. That turns around under McDermott with largely the same/better personnel. The defensive line will excel. Basically, the Bills’ D-Line personnel are 4-3 guys, particularly Hughes. He’ll return to Pro-Bowl form. Darius will also be better because he needs tough love to grow up. Kyle's on his last tour and will leave it all on the field. Shaq will finally get to demonstrate his draft value.
4. Bringing Down the Hauschka – The return of Schmidt and the addition of Hauschka should improve the team’s kicking game. Last year, lack of confidence in the FG kicker took points off the board along with his missed XPs. Points equals wins.
5. The secondary will be better. OK, a lot of folks think they won’t but the safety play will definitely be better than last year’s post Aaron Williams group. I actually think the CBs will be better based on the scheme and fit. I’ll take White/Gaines over last year’s duo in a zone scheme.
6. Discipline has returned to Buffalo. Some think this is overrated and that talent is all that matters. Bellicheat shows that’s not true. A reduction of the stupid penalties alone will help add to the win total in 2017. Aside from the penalties and the “our best ten are out there” defense, a ton of other “discipline” related mistakes cost the Bills plenty in 2016. Missed assignments, poor technique, etc. are all signs of a poorly disciplined team. That goes away in 2017…mostly.
7. Charles Clay – Clay was mostly an afterthought in 2016. Dennison’s scheme has typically focused more attention on the TE’s and Clay will benefit. He is arguably the best receiving option on the team and this offense utilizes/schemes for the TE. Clay will have a monster year. We may even see the emergence of a future Pro-Bowler in Logan Thomas.
8. That O-Line is still good. The Bills return their road-grading offensive line from 2016. A second year together typically helps a line get better. That’s something we haven’t seen from the Bills in many years. Dion Dawkins could improve that as the year goes on which should frighten other teams.
9. The AFC East won’t be as good as 2016. The Jets are in full-tank. The Dolphins have “team killer” Jay Cutler at the help (someone no other team in the NFL thought could help them even with the lack of talent at the QB position we see on many teams). Even the SB Champs have looked ordinary at times. The Chiefs delivered the 2nd half that the Falcons didn’t in the SuperBowl. Tom Brady is still great but he’s going to have more days like last Thursday as the season rolls on. You can forestall Father Time only so far. Like Michael Jordan and many other past greats, age starts to show with uneven performances. One week, Brady will look great but with greater regularity we’ll see his performance drop off.
10. Climate Change (yes I’m going there) – Climate change brings warmer and WETTER weather. The Bills’ are a run-first team which is what you want to be in the rain and snow. Add a couple of games in the pouring rain/snow in 2017 and the Bills will have the upper hand again the modern pass-first teams in the upper NFL echelon. Bengals, Bucs, Saints and 2 against the Pats could have weather related aid for the Bills.

10 Reasons the Bills will be Worse in 2017

1. New Coaching staff – it’s typically a down year for teams with staff turnover. This is especially true for “rookie” coaches. McDermott may not be immune to this ailment.
2. New Offensive running scheme – The Bills were obviously the top rushing team in 2016 and a zone-blocking scheme may not fit this O-Line group. Shady may also not thrive in a “one-cut” running game.
3. Talent loss – a lot has been written about the losses of Sammy, Darby and Gilleslee. In each case, the talent that replaced them was seen by the league as unequal. Hell, the Bills saw it that way too by demanding attritional picks with each trade or FA loss. It’s hard to argue that a drop-off in talent will improve a team.
4. Tyrod doesn’t fit the new offense - The scheme typically has QBs rolling out to throw. While many think this will help Tyrod, he is not very good throwing from outside the pocket on the run. An unstable “platform” is not a recipe for success for a QB with accuracy issues. Also, Tyrod’s scrambling has come from the center of the field. Rollouts limit the field to one-side for this type of improvisation/panic. That could further limit his effectiveness.
5. Shady is older – There is no doubt that with each carry, more of the tread comes off the tires on RBs. Shady, while immensely talented is no exception. We could see the beginning of the inevitable decline as it’s rare that RBs hitting 30 get better or stay as effective.
6. The “Process” – at some point, this type of leadership turns to autocracy. By that I mean that underlings start to see that the process is the only thing that matters instead of victory. If you’ve ever seen Clint Eastwood’s Heartbreak Ridge, you know the type of leader I’m talking about. They are more concerned with doing things in an “orderly and efficient manner” than they are in killing the enemy. I’ve worked for people like this and they tend to get the least out of people because they lose sight of the goal…winning.
7. The schedule – Yes, the Bills had an easier schedule in 2016. This year they face loaded divisions in the AFC West and NFC South. 7 of these 8 teams have true “franchise” QBs and we don’t. That is not a good ratio. The remaining non-division teams both have franchise QBs (provided Luck returns by the time we plan the Colts in December).
8. The Pats – The schedule hits us again by having the Bills play the Pats late in the season when they typically have reached peak form. Catching them early (like the Chiefs) is better. Having to play the perennial SB contender twice each year doesn’t help you improve your record.
9. Our WR group stinks – I doubt many teams are terrified of a second round rookie at the #1 slot and Jordan Matthews. Neither appears to be a down-field threat. That means the Bills will likely see more “8 in the box” defenses which will limit the effectiveness of the running scheme. Jones may end up being better than Bob Woods but a rookie year has its learning curve. The Bills could be out of the playoffs before Zay “gets it”.
10. Rookie GM – As much as a rookie HC has trouble succeeding, a rookie GM can make mistakes that really damage a team long-term. There are a lot of questions still remaining about Beane and his ability to build a roster. He’s never done it and moves he’s made this year could hurt both in the short and long-term. Are we too thin at RB now? No WR to stretch the defense? An entire revamping of the secondary? A rookie QB for when Tyrod is inevitably injured? That’s all on the GM if it doesn’t work.

Go Bills!

 

EdW

Edited September 10, 2017 by BisonMan

[Dr. K]

Good analysis. I think the "Reasons they will be worse" are more convincing, but I'm wrong a lot.

[MarlinTheMagician]

Agree, really good analysis. Just don't agree the "WR Group" is worse than what was on the field last year. Sammy was never right, Woods (who I like) was just a guy most of the year -- seemed to be emerging by Bengals game and got hurt. The rest were poor. Seemed like we were throwing to street free agents and Glass much of the year. This group can be better.

[K D]

Worse - new offense with a QB that doesn't fit that offense.

 

Better - we are bad so we will get a top 10 draft pick

[The Frankish Reich]

1. Climate Change (yes I’m going there) – Climate change brings warmer and WETTER weather. The Bills’ are a run-first team which is what you want to be in the rain and snow. Add a couple of games in the pouring rain/snow in 2017 and the Bills will have the upper hand again the modern pass-first teams in the upper NFL echelon. Bengals, Bucs, Saints and 2 against the Pats could have weather related aid for the Bills.

I have seen some "winners and losers of global warming" stories (Canada: longer growing season!), but this goes straight to the top of the list ... benefits the Bills!

EDIT: seriously though, for this year, the Dolphins essentially lose their bye week. Nov 19 was their scheduled bye; now they get the Bucs that week. Bills get them twice in the last 3 games, so I can see a little advantage there ...

 

Edited September 10, 2017 by The Frankish Reich

[Dragonborn10]

Better: Rex gone and return of the 4-3; new safeties

Worse: trading Sammy. He was going to be a star this year. I like Gaines over Darby. If Mathews/Jones combine for 1750 then they will be fine

[BisonMan]

 

EDIT: seriously though, for this year, the Dolphins essentially lose their bye week. Nov 19 was their scheduled bye; now they get the Bucs that week. Bills get them twice in the last 3 games, so I can see a little advantage there ...

Good point. Edited September 11, 2017 by BisonMan