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Posted

Drops are a definitely "real" statistic in my opinion because they are important plays and can be measured with at least a decent degree of accuracy. I just could care less about whether it's "official." That's my point. You're stressing "official," which -- to repeat -- I couldn't care less about as it pertains to this.

 

In any event, hadn't we switched to sacks taken? That is a "real" stat by your measure.

Dave, do you count the Int as a drop by Clay? Because if you do, I think that would be exhibit A in the criticism of the PFF approach. It would have been, at the very least, a very good catch by Clay.

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Posted

I thought the Tyrod of yesterday looked a lot like the Tyrod who excelled in that last Miami game last year......maybe even a little improved awareness.

 

Only differences were about 100 less yards passing and a subsequently drawn out competitive portion of the game because of a lesser WR corps........and of course, a lesser opponent.

 

If Watkins catches that same pass Matthews does it would have been a 21 mph house call by the time he was done.........and there would have likely been other downfield ops just like vs Miami.

Posted (edited)

Dave, do you count the Int as a drop by Clay? Because if you do, I think that would be exhibit A in the criticism of the PFF approach. It would have been, at the very least, a very good catch by Clay.

I think it would qualify as a solid catch by Clay - not "very good." That sort of catch is made *literally all of the time* by good NFL receivers, and Clay is definitely paid like one. You think Anquan Boldin in his prime drops that? No way.

 

It obviously wasn't a perfect throw but it was still highly catchable - eye-level with the receiver literally facing the QB and with the ball slightly to his left side. You guys have crazy high standards for catchable balls by NFL receivers if you think that constitutes a very good catch.

 

Having said all of this, drops happen on every team, and the Bills weren't really plagued by them yesterday.

Edited by dave mcbride
Posted

I think it would qualify as a solid catch by Clay - not "very good." That sort of catch is made *literally all of the time* by good NFL receivers, and Clay is definitely paid like one. You think Anquan Boldin in his prime drops that? No way.

 

It obviously wasn't a perfect throw but it was still highly catchable - eye-level with the receiver literally facing the QB and with the ball slightly to his left side. You guys have crazy high standards for catchable balls by NFL receivers if you think that constitutes a very good catch.

 

Having said all of this, drops happen on every team, and the Bills weren't really plagued by them yesterday.

So you would have counted it as a drop?

 

Obviously, we disagree about how hard a catch it would have been (I've watched the replay about 10 times and it appears to me the ball was high and Clay was drilled hard in the back the second the ball touched his hands while he was running at full speed), but the fact that two reasonable people watching the same tape have such opposing views of it shows the flaw in the PFF approach. It will be interesting to see the play from a different angle on the all-22s; the television replay just isn't very good.

Posted (edited)

So you would have counted it as a drop?

 

Obviously, we disagree about how hard a catch it would have been (I've watched the replay about 10 times and it appears to me the ball was high and Clay was drilled hard in the back the second the ball touched his hands while he was running at full speed), but the fact that two reasonable people watching the same tape have such opposing views of it shows the flaw in the PFF approach. It will be interesting to see the play from a different angle on the all-22s; the television replay just isn't very good.

If you have a good clip from the backside, it'd be great to see it again. I watched it 3-4 times yesterday, but during the game. I can't find one now. He was indeed hit hard, but it had already gone right through his hands by that point. He never got a hold on it, so the hit was kind of a moot issue (except perhaps for the hearing-footsteps possibility).

Edited by dave mcbride
Posted

So you would have counted it as a drop?

 

Obviously, we disagree about how hard a catch it would have been (I've watched the replay about 10 times and it appears to me the ball was high and Clay was drilled hard in the back the second the ball touched his hands while he was running at full speed), but the fact that two reasonable people watching the same tape have such opposing views of it shows the flaw in the PFF approach. It will be interesting to see the play from a different angle on the all-22s; the television replay just isn't very good.

I thought he should have caught it, too.

 

But more importantly, what constitutes "a drop" varies widely from fan to fan. Plus, and you pointed out both of these, the angle you see the replay has a huge influence on whether you think it was a drop or not. Sometimes it looks like a clear drop and the fourth angle shows the DB got a fingernail on it that changed the trajectory of the ball and made it way harder to catch.

Posted

So you would have counted it as a drop?

 

Obviously, we disagree about how hard a catch it would have been (I've watched the replay about 10 times and it appears to me the ball was high and Clay was drilled hard in the back the second the ball touched his hands while he was running at full speed), but the fact that two reasonable people watching the same tape have such opposing views of it shows the flaw in the PFF approach. It will be interesting to see the play from a different angle on the all-22s; the television replay just isn't very good.

It was by no means an acrobatic catch. He just had to make it a smidge behind his body. It was not high. Not low. Literally eye level to his left shoulder. The hit came after he already missed it. It hit his hands at eye level within the radius of his left shoulder pad. Its a clear drop to me.

Posted

Dave, do you count the Int as a drop by Clay? Because if you do, I think that would be exhibit A in the criticism of the PFF approach. It would have been, at the very least, a very good catch by Clay.

FWIW, sportingcharts.com defines a dropped pass as follows:

 

"This statistic counts the number of times an intended receiver touches the ball but fails to catch it. If the ball is thrown but the receiver never gets his hands on it, it is not recorded as a drop."

 

I believe that would count the INT as a drop.

Posted

FWIW, sportingcharts.com defines a dropped pass as follows:

 

"This statistic counts the number of times an intended receiver touches the ball but fails to catch it. If the ball is thrown but the receiver never gets his hands on it, it is not recorded as a drop."

 

I believe that would count the INT as a drop.

It would, and it would be wrong.
Posted

He didn't play well enough that I wouldn't move on.

 

He's the same QB no matter how you slice it.

Which QBs in the league do you really feel confident in as starters moving forward?

Posted (edited)

Which QBs in the league do you really feel confident in as starters moving forward?

Objectively?

 

Brady, Rodgers, Ben, Brees, Rivers, Carr, Winston, Mariota, Cousins, Smith, Stafford, Luck, Wilson

 

Subjectively?

 

Add Wentz to the group above.

Edited by jmc12290
Posted

I can't believe guys are still bashing Tayloy. I really don't knot think they are even watching the same game or just don't understand the position. He missed a couple of passes but so did Brady does that mean Brady sucks too, to be honest Brady played worse than Tyrod. I wish you would tell me what he should have done better. First the coach called the plays, second if the Reciever was covered, he threw the ball away. Third there were dropped passes. Fourth, when guys were covered he ran and picked up yardage. Fifth the interception hit Clay in the hands and was picked off.

Posted

Objectively?

 

Brady, Rodgers, Ben, Brees, Rivers, Carr, Winston, Mariota, Cousins, Smith, Stafford, Luck

 

Subjectively?

 

Add Wentz to the group above.

You are comfortable with Alex Smith but not Russell Wilson?
Posted

I thought the Tyrod of yesterday looked a lot like the Tyrod who excelled in that last Miami game last year......maybe even a little improved awareness.

 

Only differences were about 100 less yards passing and a subsequently drawn out competitive portion of the game because of a lesser WR corps........and of course, a lesser opponent.

 

If Watkins catches that same pass Matthews does it would have been a 21 mph house call by the time he was done.........and there would have likely been other downfield ops just like vs Miami.

I think a lot of that had to do that we threw the ball very little down the stretch.....because we didnt need to like the Miami game.

 

To me it will be about consistancy.....can he do this game to game.

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