dave mcbride Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 Total QBR or not, he only got sacked once or twice- threw the ball away a few times on the run, had a couple batted down early, and had some drops. Other than that... he had a great pair of throws to matthews, the play to oleary was nice, and added some first downs with his legs. While i agree the jets will be bad, they didn't look inherently bad at any one facet of the game. Just young all over, and don't have a particularly threatening passing attack. The jets didn't look as awful as I thought they would, but I suspect that by midseason, they will look terrible after teams have enough film on them. Their offensive talent is ridiculously poor.
Crusher Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 I thought PFF was proven to be junk a long time ago?
Royale with Cheese Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 Huh? We have a stat for that: it's called an incompletion. In adjusted completion pct, it's also called an incompletion. You can't be serious with this. An incompletion measures if the ball was a bad ball or missing an open WR? No way you're serious with this. An incompletion is a bad that wasn't completed...that's it. So you're saying if a wide open WR is running down field and the QB doesn't throw him the ball....that's an incompletion?
dave mcbride Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 You know what I think NFL Teams use to evaluate a player? Film. Film tells the whole story. Eric Wood was talking about this on WGR last year and thinks PFF is a bunch of BS. He said if he pulls but the guard is pushed in the backfield and he can't get to his block....he would be graded negatively even though it wasn't his fault. Do you know where PFF is evaluated? It's evaluated in England with the "Experts" watching broadcast footage. Yep, it's a legit stat. [7] In contrast to the purely quantitative ratings released by sources like Football Outsiders, TeamRankings, and numberFire, PFF uses qualitative and opinion-based grading as the root of their ratings. As such, the ratings are not truly quantitative and could be seen as being prone to bias, poor sample sizing, or other issues. But you are not really addressing the core question: do teams factor in drops -- which are visible on film -- when evaluating a qb? They do, and they do it statistically because just about every team believes that accuracy is the most important gauge of a qb. Just because FO does it too is in no way a reason to discount them.
dave mcbride Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 You can't be serious with this. An incompletion measures if the ball was a bad ball or missing an open WR? No way you're serious with this. An incompletion is a bad that wasn't completed...that's it. So you're saying if a wide open WR is running down field and the QB doesn't throw him the ball....that's an incompletion? Your words -- "or throwing a bad ball should be counted too." That's what I was addressing. Regarding the first part of the sentence, I don't think it should be included because we don't know the play design. But yes,I do think that drops on good passes and badly thrown balls should both be included.
HappyDays Posted September 11, 2017 Author Posted September 11, 2017 You can't be serious with this. An incompletion measures if the ball was a bad ball or missing an open WR? No way you're serious with this. An incompletion is a bad that wasn't completed...that's it. So you're saying if a wide open WR is running down field and the QB doesn't throw him the ball....that's an incompletion? No one measures this because actual football analytics guys are smart enough to know you can't guess where the QB was supposed to throw the ball. This is only a thing in Buffalo. I tried finding similar analyses about other QBs and couldn't find any. Only Tyrod.
Royale with Cheese Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 But you are not really addressing the core question: do teams factor in drops -- which are visible on film -- when evaluating a qb? They do, and they do it statistically because just about every team believes that accuracy is the most important gauge of a qb. Just because FO does it too is in no way a reason to discount them. That wasn't the core question, the core question whether or not it's a legit stat. PFF is a discussion stat. Please provide proof with a link or something that coaches "do it statistically" with drops. They look at film and they know when a drop is a drop...they don't need to put it "statistically" because they know how to evaluate film.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 A summary of fan reactions on Taylor that I've seen today: 1) He was great. If not for his inept teammates, especially Clay, the Bills would have had 40 points. He is totally underrated. 2) He sucked. If not for the great play of his teammates the Bills would have lost. This team is all Shady and the defense. 3) He was average, which is a huge relief after a terrible preseason. 4) He was average, which is huge let down after all the talk of unleashing a new, modern offense. I'm with 3). In Game 15 last year, I thought he looked like he might be taking a step, yesterday looked like a positive continuation of Game 15 vs the "3 steps back" terrible preseason. Tyrod played a nice game. If you take back the drop in the end zone it was really good. I always judge a QB on a few things (because it's all that matters): TD to turnover, 3rd down and RZ efficiency. He played well in all of those areas. It wasn't perfect but it was a good and effective game. That was a solid "B" from me. Clay has got to f***ing catch that ball. If he can't catch it, he has to f***ing bat it out of bounds. That's what TEs being paid $4.5M with a $20M bonus on the books are expected to do. This kind of post just kills me. I have no problem with posters who think that Tyrod has hit his ceiling and think it isn't good enough; that he won't improve the areas of his game where he is weak. Especially when they point out specifics about his game they have a problem with. I'm personally taking a wait and see approach for this year, yet I do think the team can win with Tyrod. But to just say he sucks and blows is not only pointless, it is wrong. First of all, no one in the league sucks. The worst guy on the worst team is a phenomenal athlete. Secondly, the team won today and Tyrod played well. 222 yds passing, 43 yds. rushing, and 2 TDs is at least adequate, not sucking. If you're actually going to root against the QB of the team that you follow, you can at least discuss what specifically he did in today's game that bothered you. Ya know, actually add to the discussion of football. Phenomenal athlete Tom Savage sucked yesterday. Phenomenal athlete Andy Dalton sucked yesterday. Point being, we do judge NFL athletes on their performance as NFL athletes, not relative to what Armchair Arthur or Coors Lite Charlie could do. That said, you are correct on all points about Taylor and the post to whom you're responding.
Royale with Cheese Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 Your words -- "or throwing a bad ball should be counted too." That's what I was addressing. Regarding the first part of the sentence, I don't think it should be included because we don't know the play design. But yes,I do think that drops on good passes and badly thrown balls should both be included. Dave....I put "throwing a bad ball should be counted too" because you specifically stated drops are a valid indicator of a QB's performance. So by using your criteria, bad balls should be counted too. I don't think either should be used as a valid stat because they are opinion based.
Kelly the Dog Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 I think it also must be considered that TT just got out of the concussion protocol, played very sparingly in preseason, and had extremely little time in the off season with his top three WR targets, which matters. And the coaches clearly were playing the game and calling the plays to be conservative. He played well.
bobobonators Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 I think it also must be considered that TT just got out of the concussion protocol, played very sparingly in preseason, and had extremely little time in the off season with his top three WR targets, which matters. And the coaches clearly were playing the game and calling the plays to be conservative. He played well. YUP
Kirby Jackson Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 (edited) This is the Twilight Zone. The Bills won, the QB played a good game and people are STILL complaining!! Can't we just take it for what it is?!? I've never seen a fan base with so much disdain for their own team. It hasn't been easy to be a Bills fan for a while but there is no reason to not be happy when good things happen. Edited September 11, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
papazoid Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 TT ranked 8th this week in passer rating & total qbr
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 damn shame some folks just can't be happy with a win, a division win. but instead give little to no credit and feel the need to dissect every play to prove and carry out their agenda. ...on to carolina
dave mcbride Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 (edited) That wasn't the core question, the core question whether or not it's a legit stat. PFF is a discussion stat. Please provide proof with a link or something that coaches "do it statistically" with drops. They look at film and they know when a drop is a drop...they don't need to put it "statistically" because they know how to evaluate film. How you can gauge accuracy without a statistical measure? "I know it when I see it" doesn't work, so while I can't provide you with a link for this (obviously), simple common sense and a basic understanding of math dictates that they do in fact measure it. Feel free to discount my point through legalisms about officialness, but I think we both know that teams measure this. Anyway, to undercut my own point, I will offer this: the Jets led the league last year with 30-30+ odd drops, which means that as a baseline, the average nfl team has about 1.5 drops per game. Assuming most teams fall along the norm, the drops come out in the wash and a raw measure of accuracy pretty much tells you how accurate your qb is (because most teams' drop totals are around the same). That argument makes a certain amount of sense to me. Regardless, Clay should have caught that pass. Edited September 11, 2017 by dave mcbride
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 (edited) Dave...nothing can be official or real when it doesn't happen. Drops are part of the game, just like holding, pass interference, illegal motion, illegal player downfield etc.... It's a "what if" stat. You're not going to see an adjusted completion percentage stat in the record books. Do you see "total QBR" in "the record books"? [whose record books?] Some do believe it is a "real stat". If by "record books" you mean "official NFL records" and "NFL record books" then I agree, it's not an "official NFL stat". I don't like total QBR, personally, but I won't claim it isn't a "real stat" - there are plenty of "real stats" that get in official NFL records that are not meaningfully correlated with winning. QB passing yards per game for example. Anyway, drops are now part of total QBR, which is a real stat kept in real record books (although not official NFL record books) Edited September 11, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan
PolishDave Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 This is the Twilught Zone. The Bills won, the QB played a good game and people are STILL complaining!! Can't we just take it for what it is?!? I've never seen a fan base with so much disdain for their own team. It hasn't been easy to be a Bills fan for a while but there is no reason to not be happy when good things happen. There are obviously a handful of people on here just waiting for Taylor to fail miserably so their horrible takes on the guy can be validated. You saw plenty of them posting during the preseason around here. They would rather see Tyrod Taylor fail than see the Bills succeed. Truth is we had decent QB play and a good win this week. Let's hope we get that again next weekend.
Seasons1992 Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 This is the Twilught Zone. The Bills won, the QB played a good game and people are STILL complaining!! Can't we just take it for what it is?!? I've never seen a fan base with so much disdain for their own team. It hasn't been easy to be a Bills fan for a while but there is no reason to not be happy when good things happen. pfft. You've been here WAY longer than I have but even I know you're dreaming if you think it will ever change. Just imagine if/when we actually become a contender again. "12-4, should have been 14-2, we're a weak team that's going nowhere."
Royale with Cheese Posted September 11, 2017 Posted September 11, 2017 How you can gauge accuracy without a statistical measure? "I know it when I see it" doesn't work, so while I can't provide you with a link for this (obviously), simple common sense and a basic understanding of math dictates that they do in fact measure it. Feel free to discount my point through legalisms about officialness, but I think we both know that teams measure this. Anyway, to undercut my own point, I will offer this: the Jets led the league last year with 30-30+ odd drops, which means that as a baseline, the average nfl team has about 1.5 drops per game. Assuming most teams fall along the norm, the drops come out in the wash and a raw measure of accuracy pretty much tells you how accurate your qb is (because most teams' drop totals are around the same). That argument makes a certain amount of sense to me. Regardless, Clay should have caught that pass. A coach knows when a ball is accurate or not because he called the plays, he knows where the ball is supposed to go. Whether it was supposed to be on the back shoulder, low and away from the defender etc.... Completion percentage isn't the end all be all when it comes to determining accuracy. If it was, Sam Bradford last year was the most accurate passer in NFL history.
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