Extreme Moneyball - Bills version

[Magox]

 

I think it's just an honest admission that scouting/talent evaluation is an inexact science.

I'd agree that it is, but I think there are some evaluators who are more often right than others. And it's not just a matter of who is better but how each player fits into what they are trying to do. Which is why it's very important for scouting, management and coaches are all on the same page.

 

Continuity goes along way with this which we know is something we haven't had in a long time.

[The Frankish Reich]

I'd agree that it is, but I think there are some evaluators who are more often right than others. And it's not just a matter of who is better but how each player fits into what they are trying to do. Which is why it's very important for scouting, management and coaches are all on the same page.

 

Continuity goes along way with this which we know is something we haven't had in a long time.

I was bored a few days ago so I did a little research in response to the "Bills draft reaches" thread ... since 2011, the only clear "stretch" I could come up with in the first 3 rounds was EJ Manuel, and that kind of thing happens every year with QBs. I see absolutely no reason other than bad luck for why Cyrus Kouandjio was a bust and some guys picked right around him weren't, or why Sammy Watkins has been unable to stay healthy whereas Mike Evans has. About all I could conclude was this: the Bills problem hasn't been with talent evaluation in the draft; it's been caused by drafting based on short-term perceived need rather than the best player available, and trading up for that perceived "one missing piece" when the team in reality had many missing pieces. These are strategic/competition cycle errors, not talent evaluation errors.

[Boatdrinks]

I'd agree that it is, but I think there are some evaluators who are more often right than others. And it's not just a matter of who is better but how each player fits into what they are trying to do. Which is why it's very important for scouting, management and coaches are all on the same page.

Continuity goes along way with this which we know is something we haven't had in a long time.

Yes there are. I'm not sure if Bill Polian was just a great evaluator, got really lucky , or both. There's that old saying about being lucky rather than good. Of course, the continuity thing is huge too. If you are always scouting guys to fit into the Steelers 3-4 defense, for example, you get pretty good at it. The Bills have tried to reinvent the wheel every few years for ages.

[Philly McButterpants]

You Lost Us At "Bleacher Reports"....

 

Truly. why does any one read this dreck? Other than AP reports, this "writer" didn't know $hite about the Bills. OMG, we traded Cardale Jones!!?! The sky in indeed falling.

[elroy16]

A particularly stupid take from Bleacher Report. Buried in there amidst all the derision is a hint at what Beane (hah! Get it...Moneyball, Billy Beane, Brandon Beane) and company may be thinking. The BR article pokes fun at the apparent obsession with collecting 2nd round picks. And look what the Bills (ostensibly Whaley, but really, this was McD and probably more than a few late night chats with Beane) did in this draft:

 

- traded down from overall pick # 10 to # 27 (White)

- traded up a few slots to pick # 37 (Zay)

- traded up to pick # 63 (Dion)

 

And then it continued with the Sammy trade bringing another 2nd rounder; unless the Rams improve dramatically, the pick will likely fall in that 35-45 range.

 

Remember, Moneyball was all about exploiting a market inefficiency. Back then, it was mostly about how the baseball market undervalued on-base percentage and players who put together successful college careers. If this isn't just haphazard, I'd have to guess the McD and Beane think the "sweet spot" in the draft is in that 2nd round - the most bang for your buck. They come cheaper than the first half of the Round 1, and teams desperate for that one guy they just gotta have are willing to give you too much, usually including one or more 2nd rounders plus a good player (think Gaines + a likely high 2nd round pick). Whether you agree or disagree with what Beane is doing, my hunch is that this is based on some cold, hard study and strategy rather than just an excuse for purging players who aren't "our guys" as many of the critics charge.

 

 

 

This is an interesting thought and it would be interesting to see how this plays out with this FO. I was pretty excited when they were stocking up on picks during the draft, but then felt somewhat discouraged when they traded up twice. They gave away a late 3rd to move up and pick Zay while they gave up two fifths to move up and pick Dawkins, so their moves line up pretty well with your theory. My guess is you are right and it's possible they value those late drafts as potential trade currency more than flyers on guys with a small chance of making the team.

[Cash]

I'd agree that it is, but I think there are some evaluators who are more often right than others. And it's not just a matter of who is better but how each player fits into what they are trying to do. Which is why it's very important for scouting, management and coaches are all on the same page.

 

Continuity goes along way with this which we know is something we haven't had in a long time.

 

I do think that there's cases of outright incompetence - Matt Millen comes to mind - but once your scouts/GM hit a certain level of quality, I wonder if it basically just tops out? The analytics on this are far from perfect, but the ones I've seen suggest that maybe no one really has a long-term scouting advantage, and "great drafters" are a combination of luck and having a lot of high picks. I wonder if there's just X% uncertainty in player scouting, and the best you can get is 100-X% sure of anyone? Is it actually possible to know before the draft whether Sammy Watkins or Odell Beckham will be better, or can you just guess right?

 

Anecdotal evidence: Donahoe and Modrak had amazing drafts in Pittsburgh for while, then the quality fell off once Modrak left. Must be that Modrak was the great talent evaluator. But Donahoe's first draft with the Bills was by far his best, and they sharply fell off once Modrak joined him in Buffalo the following year. Did Modrak lose his ability to scout, or was it that Donahoe/Modrak got lucky with a few drafts and unlucky with a few others?

[TigerJ]

I think it is about 80% #1 Bradys age. I dont see Bill coaching after Brady. They seem to be going all in for the next year or 2. Get 3 titles in a row and off to the sunset goes both.

It's also the fact that they can sign quality veterans for under market value because said veterans are looking for championship rings.

[dave mcbride]

 

Truly. why does any one read this dreck? Other than AP reports, this "writer" didn't know $hite about the Bills. OMG, we traded Cardale Jones!!?! The sky in indeed falling.

It was a good piece, and he wasn't saying that Jones was "good." He was saying that the Bills were dumping a whole bunch of guys that they had recently invested draft capital in. They dumped Jones for TJ Yates, who Dennison coached in Houston (i.e., "his guy", which is the point of the section on the Bills). Take another look at the piece.

[Big C]

While I like the idea of getting a leg up on the competition via more draft choices, he basically implies that he believes talent evaluation is overrated.

 

With that I disagree

 

But this is the Browns we are talking about.