2018 Mock drafts and top prospects

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Blokestradamus said:

Blokes has actually got a hot take for this draft.

 

If Marcell Ateman ran 4.5 or below, he'd be WR1.

I'm not overly influenced by the stopwatch measure. Whether he runs a 4.6 instead of a 4.4 what does it really matter when you are  on the football field? It's how you play, how you run routes and have good hands that should determine how the player is perceived. What makes some of the stopwatch times in these school settings even more deceptive is that players train for the test. I acknowledge that if a player is clocked at an exceedingly slow time that the measure Is significant but for me the tape is more illuminating than the clock is when evaluating a receiver. As an example Jerry Rice was far from being a speedster. He is one of the all-time greats in the game. Some teams mistakenly lowered his ranking on their boards because of his times. 

[Blokestradamus]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I'm not overly influenced by the stopwatch measure. Whether he runs a 4.6 instead of a 4.4 what does it really matter when you are  on the football field? It's how you play, how you run routes and have good hands that should determine how the player is perceived. What makes some of the stopwatch times in these school settings even more deceptive is that players train for the test. I acknowledge that if a player is clocked at an exceedingly slow time that the measure Is significant but for me the tape is more illuminating than the clock is when evaluating a receiver. As an example Jerry Rice was far from being a speedster. He is one of the all-time greats in the game. Some teams mistakenly lowered his ranking on their boards because of his times. 

 

I'm a big believer that good football players will typically be good as long as you can quantify how they win. If you can find a role for a player (I think this is especially true at linebacker), you can find value in players that aren't necessarily 'elite' athletes.

 

I like Ateman's physical makeup, even if he's got weirdly small hands for someone of his stature. His route running is pretty good for his size, probably has the best grip strength and spatial awareness since Josh Doctson. The simple issue is that running around a 4.6, a lot of his vertical threat is based off blown coverages or they'll likely be more contested. I don't mind his chances in contested catch situations but I'd rather not be banking on them a lot for chunk plays, you know? Deep balls are already a low-percentage play without lowering your odds.

 

In many regards, Ateman might end up falling into some of the same pitfalls as Kelvin Benjamin. I don't consider Kelvin a true #1 and I think you need to be in that classification to be a top draft pick. Not to say that Ateman can't have a good career, I just have trust issues with guys that miss certain athletic criteria.

[TigerJ]

It's tough to maintain separation if you're slow.  Yes, slow WRs can be successful in the NFL.  There are plenty of examples: Anquan Boldin, Cooper Kupp, Jarvis Landry are just a few.  It is OK to have receivers like that on your team, and to start them, but all things being equal, a speed receiver can maintain speed better, and has a better chance to get yards after the catch.  You'd like to have a guy like that on your team who is good enough to start if you can.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, TigerJ said:

It's tough to maintain separation if you're slow.  Yes, slow WRs can be successful in the NFL.  There are plenty of examples: Anquan Boldin, Cooper Kupp, Jarvis Landry are just a few.  It is OK to have receivers like that on your team, and to start them, but all things being equal, a speed receiver can maintain speed better, and has a better chance to get yards after the catch.  You'd like to have a guy like that on your team who is good enough to start if you can.

I don't disagree with what you and Bloke are saying about the desirability for speed in a receiver. However, the overwhelming percentage of passing plays are in the short to medium range. New England with one of the best qbs in the history of the game demonstrate the emphasis in the passing game that revolves around the short and medium plays. 

 

If I had a choice between Andre Reed or James Lofton, both HOF players, who represent the contrast in style we are discussing here I would prefer Andre Reed because he would be more suitable in the passing game in the way the game is currently played. As I stated in a prior post Jerry Rice who arguably is the best receiver in modern times was not considered a speed demon. 

 

We aren't basically disagreeing as we are emphasizing different attributes in what one would prioritize in a receiver.

[Blokestradamus]

11 minutes ago, JohnC said:

We aren't basically disagreeing as we are emphasizing different attributes in what one would prioritize in a receiver.

 

 

This is absolutely it. You're not wrong about the NFL being a short/intermediate game either, it's a chunk play league and not necessarily a big play one.

 

I've been pro Laquon Treadwell, Devin Funchess, De'Runnya Wilson (and he ran a poor TE time). I'm pro-Ateman and Auden Tate being 4.6 guys. Being an athlete alone won't get you graded well for me but if you have it all; Daddy like.

[JohnC]

10 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

This is absolutely it. You're not wrong about the NFL being a short/intermediate game either, it's a chunk play league and not necessarily a big play one.

 

I've been pro Laquon Treadwell, Devin Funchess, De'Runnya Wilson (and he ran a poor TE time). I'm pro-Ateman and Auden Tate being 4.6 guys. Being an athlete alone won't get you graded well for me but if you have it all; Daddy like.

It must be noted that if you don't have a qb that can make quick reads and throw in rhythm then you are going to be in a state of futility and exasperation. I don't want to reprise the Taylor issue because it causes intense reactions but if there is a desire to have a  modern passing game then he can't be taking the snaps for you. Although I find Lamar Jackson to be an intriguing prospect he doesn't fit the profile of a qb that Beane wants to build around. I would go so far as to say that if the GM had to choose between Rudolph and Jackson he would select Rudolph. If I had to guess the qb that Beane would salivate over is Rosen who is an accurate passer and can work from the pocket.  

[Blokestradamus]

Although I'm not a huge Rudolph guy, I don't hate keeping the capital.

 

R1 P12

OT CONNOR WILLIAMS

TEXAS

R1 P22

QB MASON RUDOLPH

OKLAHOMA STATE

R2 P21

DL HARRISON PHILLIPS

STANFORD

R2 P24

TE MIKE GESICKI

PENN STATE

R3 P1

DL RASHEEM GREEN

USC

R3 P32

WR MARCELL ATEMAN

OKLAHOMA STATE

R4 P21

LB MARQUIS HAYNES

OLE MISS

R5 P29

LB SHAUN DION HAMILTON

ALABAMA

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Blokestradamus said:

Although I'm not a huge Rudolph guy, I don't hate keeping the capital.

 

R1 P12

OT CONNOR WILLIAMS

TEXAS

R1 P22

QB MASON RUDOLPH

OKLAHOMA STATE

R2 P21

DL HARRISON PHILLIPS

STANFORD

R2 P24

TE MIKE GESICKI

PENN STATE

R3 P1

DL RASHEEM GREEN

USC

R3 P32

WR MARCELL ATEMAN

OKLAHOMA STATE

R4 P21

LB MARQUIS HAYNES

OLE MISS

R5 P29

LB SHAUN DION HAMILTON

ALABAMA

Let me pose a question to you that relates to your draft board. Let's say for the sake of argument you have an opportunity to draft a qb like Mayfield but have to move up to the 6th spot for him. Would you give up both of your first round picks (getting one back in the move up) and also giving up a second and third round pick, the third rounder would be the Cleveland pick which is at the top of third? 

 

I'm looking at your board and see a lot of positions being addressed with the infusion of talent, especially from the first three rounds. On this issue I am torn and go back and forth. Sad to say I have become an equivocator! I am so disappointed in myself. 

Edited March 28, 2018 by JohnC

[Blokestradamus]

15 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Let me pose a question to you that relates to your draft board. Let's say for the sake of argument you have an opportunity to draft a qb like Mayfield but have to move up to the 6th spot for him. Would you give up both of your first round picks (getting one back in the move up) and also giving up a second and third round pick, the third rounder would be the Cleveland pick which is at the top of third? 

 

I'm looking at your board and see a lot of positions being addressed with the infusion of talent, especially from the first three rounds. On this issue I am torn and go back and forth. Sad to say I have become an equivocator! I am so disappointed in myself. 

 

I'm a big believer in the trio of Rosen, Mayfield & Darnold being the guys that you can feasibly chase up the board. If Baker is still on the board at 6, I'd definitely make the call to Indy.

 

The starting point would be offering 12 & 22. Regardless of which trade value chart you look at, that's already a fair offer. I'd probably throw in 65 if they asked for a little more. That would give Ballard 7 picks within the top 67 selections. I think that's more than enough ammo for him to start reshaping that roster in his image. If I need to add a 2nd rounder to the mix, I'd probably rather it be a future one.

 

I said in another thread that I'd offer 12 and both 2nd round picks for the 6th selection. Throwing in 22 as a desperation measure because #6 is probably where your franchise QB options run dry. QB won't solve everything but it can definitely mask it. They need one from this class.

Edited March 28, 2018 by Blokestradamus

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

I'm a big believer in the trio of Rosen, Mayfield & Darnold being the guys that you can feasibly chase up the board. If Baker is still on the board at 6, I'd definitely make the call to Indy.

 

The starting point would be offering 12 & 22. Regardless of which trade value chart you look at, that's already a fair offer. I'd probably throw in 65 if they asked for a little more. That would give Ballard 7 picks within the top 67 selections. I think that's more than enough ammo for him to start reshaping that roster in his image. If I need to add a 2nd rounder to the mix, I'd probably rather it be a future one.

 

I said in another thread that I'd offer 12 and both 2nd round picks for the 6th selection. Throwing in 22 as a desperation measure because #6 is probably where your franchise QB options run dry. QB won't solve everything but it can definitely mask it. They need one from this class.

Thanks for the response. I'm open to all options as long as a quality qb prospect is included in the mix. I consider both Rudolph and Jackson in the quality category.

[Blokestradamus]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Thanks for the response. I'm open to all options as long as a quality qb prospect is included in the mix. I consider both Rudolph and Jackson in the quality category.

 

I think both Rudolph and Jackson are options but my theory on selecting them gets a little Utopian. I'd want a bona fide difference maker at 12 and then take the QB at 22. I know that if the other 4 guys go really early, it's naive to think that Arizona & Miami would both pass on the only other guys that might have starting potential at some point down the line.

 

I'm not a parrot for the 'trust the process' stuff but they clearly have a plan. You don't make the kind of severe moves that they've made (which in some industries would be considered asset-stripping) without a direction you want to go in. They'd just better hope that it's the correct one.

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

I think both Rudolph and Jackson are options but my theory on selecting them gets a little Utopian. I'd want a bona fide difference maker at 12 and then take the QB at 22. I know that if the other 4 guys go really early, it's naive to think that Arizona & Miami would both pass on the only other guys that might have starting potential at some point down the line.

 

I'm not a parrot for the 'trust the process' stuff but they clearly have a plan. You don't make the kind of severe moves that they've made (which in some industries would be considered asset-stripping) without a direction you want to go in. They'd just better hope that it's the correct one.

You may be an utopian but I am not. I am an unadulterated utilitarian. My favorite saying and notion is "don't let perfect be the enemy of the good". I also carry that philosophy in my political inclinations. I have nothing but contempt for political ideologues both on the right and left. If the top tier qbs are gone before we pick then I would prefer taking a qb with our first pick. I'm not willing to gamble on that position. 

 

I agree with you that this regime is much more strategic in their thinking than what this franchise has been previously subjected to. When McBeane took over they had a blueprint as to how this roster was going to be built from a player profile and from a cap distribution standpoint. While Whaley took a more patchwork approach to adding players this more thoughtful pairing is much more conceptual on how they make decisions. I very much trust their judgment. They are chess players compared to their predecessors who were checker players. 

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

I think both Rudolph and Jackson are options but my theory on selecting them gets a little Utopian. I'd want a bona fide difference maker at 12 and then take the QB at 22. I know that if the other 4 guys go really early, it's naive to think that Arizona & Miami would both pass on the only other guys that might have starting potential at some point down the line.

 

I'm not a parrot for the 'trust the process' stuff but they clearly have a plan. You don't make the kind of severe moves that they've made (which in some industries would be considered asset-stripping) without a direction you want to go in. They'd just better hope that it's the correct one.

Blokes, you don't think that Lamar Jackson can't/won't be a difference maker?

[Blokestradamus]

12 hours ago, the skycap said:

Blokes, you don't think that Lamar Jackson can't/won't be a difference maker?

 

I think he certainly could be but I was thinking more about a player that's a sure thing (I know, they don't actually exist) and can be a valuable asset from Day 1. I love Lamar's potential, I just class myself in the group that really wishes that he'd stayed at Louisville for another year. He's got his flaws to correct and I think if he managed to continue on his upward trajectory, he would've been the front runner for QB1 in the '19 class.

 

The way I think about it, Lamar is in the same bracket as Rudolph & Allen. If he's going to be good, it's probably not until the back end of Year 2 at the very earliest. Because I think they have starting potential in the best case scenario, I'd like to keep my assets and build the roster for them. Smith or Edmunds at LB, McGlinchey/Williams to play RT, I wouldn't even flinch at another pass rusher or corner. I worry less about that if I have one of the 'better' QB prospects because I think they'll elevate those around them a little easier.

 

I hope that answers that, I know it's a bit of a ramble

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

I think he certainly could be but I was thinking more about a player that's a sure thing (I know, they don't actually exist) and can be a valuable asset from Day 1. I love Lamar's potential, I just class myself in the group that really wishes that he'd stayed at Louisville for another year. He's got his flaws to correct and I think if he managed to continue on his upward trajectory, he would've been the front runner for QB1 in the '19 class.

 

The way I think about it, Lamar is in the same bracket as Rudolph & Allen. If he's going to be good, it's probably not until the back end of Year 2 at the very earliest. Because I think they have starting potential in the best case scenario, I'd like to keep my assets and build the roster for them. Smith or Edmunds at LB, McGlinchey/Williams to play RT, I wouldn't even flinch at another pass rusher or corner. I worry less about that if I have one of the 'better' QB prospects because I think they'll elevate those around them a little easier.

 

I hope that answers that, I know it's a bit of a ramble

I'm not disagreeing with your take as I am supporting it. My position is if it takes a year or two to groom a qb to be ready that shouldn't be a problem because that is the norm. With the three qbs you mentioned (Rudolph, Allen and Jackson) it seems that you are making an argument to draft them with a first round pick and still keep your other picks to bolster the roster. 

 

An example of your position is Goff. He wasn't ready in his rookie year but when he played his second year he was more prepared. It's safe to say that he will continue to get better. Too many people believe that the Bills are close to having a complete roster. We are not close to having a robust roster. The Bills bucked the odds last year to make the playoffs. They certainly didn't have a playoff roster, and they still have a way to go to get there.  

 

If the Bills have an interest with Jackson they need to take him with their first pick. If the Bills have an interest in Rudolph they might/should be able to get him with their second first round pick. For me,  if the Bills don't come out of this draft with a serious qb prospect I will be disappointed. 

[Blokestradamus]

7 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm not disagreeing with your take as I am supporting it. My position is if it takes a year or two to groom a qb to be ready that shouldn't be a problem because that is the norm. With the three qbs you mentioned (Rudolph, Allen and Jackson) it seems that you are making an argument to draft them with a first round pick and still keep your other picks to bolster the roster. 

 

An example of your position is Goff. He wasn't ready in his rookie year but when he played his second year he was more prepared. It's safe to say that he will continue to get better. Too many people believe that the Bills are close to having a complete roster. We are not close to having a robust roster. The Bills bucked the odds last year to make the playoffs. They certainly didn't have a playoff roster, and they still have a way to go to get there.  

 

If the Bills have an interest with Jackson they need to take him with their first pick. If the Bills have an interest in Rudolph they might/should be able to get him with their second first round pick. For me,  if the Bills don't come out of this draft with a serious qb prospect I will be disappointed. 

 

Teams tend not to draft a QB in the first round and stash them, simply because there's no patience in the league any more. I'm firmly of the belief that you should spend more time grooming them but between ownership and fan pressure, they often want to see the shiny new toy, regardless of whether he's ready. In an ideal world, I wouldn't take any of them in the 1st but between the 5th year option and the realities of the draft means that you kinda have to.

 

I know what you're getting at with Goff but I watched 2 years of his throws at Cal. I'm more than happy to attribute most of the blame on Jeff Fisher and his coaching staff. He was 'pro-ready' enough to play Week 1 but they seemed to botch his learning curve. He didn't magically become good again, he just had a more creative coach willing to simplify certain things for him and adjust to his skill set. I guess I'm not clued in enough on Brian Daboll to know if he would be smart enough to provide a similar structure for a rookie to thrive in.

 

I do agree with you that the Bills roster isn't anywhere close to being objectively 'good'. The OL could be an issue, WR is abysmal, LB/DB are one injury from carnage. With so much money being paid for players no longer on the roster, I think we're in for a rough year. If they can secure a QB from this class that they have a plan for, at least it'll buy the Bills some legitimacy when they do have funds to spend.

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

I would not be upset with this...

 

12: R1P12

QB JOSH ALLEN

WYOMING

22: R1P22

EDGE HAROLD LANDRY

BOSTON COLLEGE

53: R2P21

CB DONTE JACKSON

LSU

56: R2P24

OT BRIAN O'NEILL

PITTSBURGH

65: R3P1

DL TIM SETTLE

VIRGINIA TECH

96: R3P32

WR JORDAN LASLEY

UCLA

121: R4P21

LB OREN BURKS

VANDERBILT

166: R5P29

RB KALEN BALLAGE

ARIZONA STATE

187: R6P13

C BRADLEY BOZEMAN

ALABAMA

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I would not be upset with this...

 

12: R1P12

QB JOSH ALLEN

WYOMING

22: R1P22

EDGE HAROLD LANDRY

BOSTON COLLEGE

53: R2P21

CB DONTE JACKSON

LSU

56: R2P24

OT BRIAN O'NEILL

PITTSBURGH

65: R3P1

DL TIM SETTLE

VIRGINIA TECH

96: R3P32

WR JORDAN LASLEY

UCLA

121: R4P21

LB OREN BURKS

VANDERBILT

166: R5P29

RB KALEN BALLAGE

ARIZONA STATE

187: R6P13

C BRADLEY BOZEMAN

ALABAMA

Why do you believe that Allen will still be on the board at the twelve spot? If Baker slipped I could understand it but not Josh Allen. To be clear Baker is one of my favorite prospects. I would prefer him over Allen. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

7 hours ago, JohnC said:

Why do you believe that Allen will still be on the board at the twelve spot? If Baker slipped I could understand it but not Josh Allen. To be clear Baker is one of my favorite prospects. I would prefer him over Allen. 

I don't believe it, but it's what happened so I took it

[Billsfansinceday1]

On ‎3‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 11:02 PM, JohnC said:

Why do you believe that Allen will still be on the board at the twelve spot? If Baker slipped I could understand it but not Josh Allen. To be clear Baker is one of my favorite prospects. I would prefer him over Allen. 

Every year sure fire top round picks, frequently QBs, fall unexpectedly.  I am pretty sure we will see this again April 26th.