The Insanity of Tanking Talk

[Billsfan1972]

Good a year where I have minimal interest in my team with a GM and coaching staff who has assessed the talent and decided it is no up to their standards (and really they know that?).

 

Yes they traded away their best young player and another good young player in hopes of what?

 

And if they don't get that star QB and build around him?

 

Again as a coaching staff shouldn't they be the ones protecting TT and saying that he was hurt by the OC and bad playcalling? Isn't this the worst passing team in the NFL for years now incapable of a 300 yard game?

 

Shouldn't they be able if competent to rebuild the core defense who was near the top of the league just 2 years ago?

 

I want coaches & GMs that make the team better, not worse.

 

Those happy to be 6-10 or worse and dreaming of the draft are just losers.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I know everyone seems to struggle with nuance here.

 

Up until recently "tanking" was not part of the sports vocabulary. You can build something without tanking. That is what the Bills are doing.

 

• The Bills already have 6 picks in the top 100 next year. They will have great flexibility to go after a QB if they are dissatisfied with Taylor at the end of 2017.

 

• Peterman was picked to be a backup. Mid-round rookie QBs occasionally turn into Kirk Cousins, but regardless they are great ways to have cost-controlled backups who turn into future trade assets. New England has been doing this for years (Hoyer, Mallet, Jimmy G, etc.) We could get lucky with him, but right now he is completing 50% of his passes against the 2nd and 3rd stringers. He is not remotely prepared to start an NFL football game.

 

• Taylor could probably garner a 3rd rounder at this point - not a game-changer given the ammo the Bills already have. Somehow one bad preseason game proves that he cannot play and yet we could get great value for him. Okay.

 

• McCoy was traded 2 1/2 years ago and the Eagles got nothing. The Bills would not profit from that trade and he would represent a ton of dead money. Trading Kyle Williams would get what, a 5th round pick?

 

• The idea that the Boldin retirement would trigger a tank is bizarre and would truly mean that this team has no plan. Up until he signed, most Bills fans had given up on the idea that he was coming in the first place.

 

McDermott and Beane know that they are in the mushy middle of the AFC - nowhere close to Pats and Steelers, but several steps above the misery of Jags, Browns, and Jets. They HAVE to build for 2018 and beyond - and they have been doing that starting with the trade down for Tre White. The Watkins trade fits in that framework, but IT DOES NOT REPRESENT A TANK. Look at the Bovada odds - the Bills expected win total did not go down. Watkins or not, they are at best a wild-card team this year. They are like 10 other teams in the AFC that could win between 6 and 10 games depending on injuries, officiating, schedule, penalties, etc. The wild card is a worthy and realistic goal to compete for and would be a huge step towards where the team wants to go. Even if they go 7-9 again, McDermott wants this team "in the hunt" until December. It doesn't help him to start of his coaching career by going 3-13 with Nate Peterman. You are always on the clock in the NFL.

 

One great indicator of an executive's success is his/her ability to be future-oriented. If you read War Room you will see Belichick/Pioli were looking at the future, even as their '02 team unexpectedly went on a run and made the Super Bowl. Because of Brady's unexpected rise, the Pats have always been able to focus on the future. This is the way that McDermott and Beane are trying to run the team but it does not mean strip-mining the current roster.

 

 

 

 

"Stop making sense"

 

Seriously good post

And how, pray tell, has the battle to 7-9 worked out for us? Has it built us a winning culture? Has it improved us?

 

How, pray tell, has the battle to tank worked out for teams that have done it? Has it built them a winning culture? Has it improved them? See other post on this topic.

[Fan in Chicago]

 

AND THAT IS WHY YOU TANK.

Which is the last team that tanked and this set themselves up for long term success ? Tanking, mini or full blown, is a totally stupid strategy in today's NFL.

[chris heff]

Which is the last team that tanked and this set themselves up for long term success ? Tanking, mini or full blown, is a totally stupid strategy in today's NFL.

I asked that question in this thread and another. The only two attempts at an answer are the Colts "suck for Luck" and Cowboys Walker trade. I contend neither were planned tanks.

[May Day 10]

I would say the Titans have done things pretty well so far.

 

Let's take the word 'tank' out of the conversation.

 

 

The team needs to look to the future. Of course they should and will try to win every game.... realism about the present needs to be embraced by management. Everything should be done with 2019 and beyond in mind. Does McCoy, Kyle, and Tyrod etc help you become the best team you can in 2019 (with salary structure in mind)? If not, get what you can for them. Keep trading down and accumulating picks. For way too long this team has been stuck in 'now', patching up a flawed ship.

 

 

The suck for Luck thing is strange. That was a flawed team that was kept afloat by the fact that Peyton Manning is a robot. They were an aged/aging team who did not properly retool and continues to do so.

[Fadingpain]

So we should look forward to a playoff appearance in four years. I can't wait.

Hey man, it's been 17 so far.

 

What's a few more?

 

Besides, it's not like the playoffs are somehow expected or guaranteed if we don't tank!

[chris heff]

I would say the Titans have done things pretty well so far.

 

Let's take the word 'tank' out of the conversation.

 

 

The team needs to look to the future. Of course they should and will try to win every game.... realism about the present needs to be embraced by management. Everything should be done with 2019 and beyond in mind. Does McCoy, Kyle, and Tyrod etc help you become the best team you can in 2019 (with salary structure in mind)? If not, get what you can for them. Keep trading down and accumulating picks. For way too long this team has been stuck in 'now', patching up a flawed ship.

 

 

The suck for Luck thing is strange. That was a flawed team that was kept afloat by the fact that Peyton Manning is a robot. They were an aged/aging team who did not properly retool and continues to do so.

 

I agree that "tank" should be out of the conversation, but what are you going to get for Kyle or Taylor at this point? Maybe they could get something for McCoy, but why not wait? If the Bills are 0-5 and a team that is in contention and desperate for a RB, then trade him.

[Fadingpain]

It's a great way to get yourself fired as GM/Head coach.

 

Watch. When the Jets blow this year, Mike Maccagnan or Todd Bowles or both will be fired after the season.

It's not such a great way to get fired if the owner of the team is not only on board with the strategy, but orders it.

 

I have no idea if Pegula has done that with the Bills; he did it with the Sabres however.

[May Day 10]

I agree that "tank" should be out of the conversation, but what are you going to get for Kyle or Taylor at this point? Maybe they could get something for McCoy, but why not wait? If the Bills are 0-5 and a team that is in contention and desperate for a RB, then trade him.

 

 

I agree. Kyle, probably nothing. Tyrod, we will see the first injury to a contending team's QB. Probably the same with McCoy. These guys aren't burning a hole in my pocket or anything. I think overall, the Bills have adopted a 'rebuild' mentality.

[John from Riverside]

I just cant bring myself to even talk about a tank

 

If we suck....fine we suck but to lose intentionally...

 

Its worked so well for the jags. They are about to cut the QB that they tanked for

[Fan in Chicago]

I asked that question in this thread and another. The only two attempts at an answer are the Colts "suck for Luck" and Cowboys Walker trade. I contend neither were planned tanks.

And yet they prove the point that tanking is a terrible strategy

[26CornerBlitz]

And yet they prove the point that tanking is a terrible strategy

 

It's a completely unproven strategy and unnecessary IMO.

[Billsmovinup]

Nobody is giving us a third for Tyrod.

[reddogblitz]

When the Cowboys traded Herschel, they already had Michael Irvin from the year before (Tom Landry's Last season). They also already had Troy Aiknen who they got with the first pick in the draft. Does anyone think Tom Landry lost ON PURPOSE to get that pick?

[BillsFan4]

I just don't see tanking as necessary in football, like it is in Hockey.

 

In this day and age in the NHL, you almost need a top 3 pick to get that truly elite franchise changing center/player. Guys like McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, Kane, Toews, Doughty don't fall in the draft. They go top 3. If you look at the teams that have won Cups recently, basically every single one of them has had at least 1 top 3 pick.

 

Where as football just seems different to me.

 

Yes, you need a top 3 pick to get those truly elite QBs (like Luck, Eli/Payton Manning etc) when there is even 1 in the draft to get.

But so many good franchise QBs have been fond outside the top 5 (and even the top 10) as well. Some of the best QBs in the NFL were found outside the top 5-10.

There is also plenty of game changing talent (outside the QB position) all through the first 2 (and even 3) rounds of the draft, and there have been quite a few SB winning teams built without a top 3 pick.

 

 

 

Just looking at the list of teams who have won the Super Bowl recently -

only a couple of them had top picked QBs. Just going back 10 years, 3 of those 10 winners had top picked QBs, and 1 of those 3 was an old, decrepit Peyton Manning playing as a shell of himself. The other 7 had QBs that were picked outside of the top 5 (and really, the top 10).

 

And actually, if you go back further than 10 years there are a lot more SB winning QBs taken outside the top of the draft - just going back to 2000, 13 of the 17 SB winning QBs were not top 5 draft picks (if I counted correctly...)

 

http://www.topendspo...inners-list.htm

 

 

IMO, all you really need to rebuild in the NFL is good drafting and some extra draft picks and a coaching staff that gives you the ability to develop those drafted players. I'm very hopeful that Beanehas assembled the scouting and personnel staff to draft well, an that McDermott and his staff will be able to develop these players (McD did a pretty good job of it in Carolina IMO).

 

Obviously you need to hit on a QB eventually too. But I'm more of the opinion that you need to just keep taking shots in the draft to get one. Even the top QB picks are not always sure things. The changes to college football have made it harder and harder to project what these QBs will be in the NFL.

 

I'm not all about trading away the entire 2018 draft for a QB either. Trade ups to the top of the draft rarely ever work out for the team trading up. The Bills are lacking starters and depth at too many positions to be trading away so many draft assets anyway. The 2018 draft is supposed to be strong at many positions. It's looking like it might be a great year to hold so many extra picks.

Take a shot on a QB at our draft spot, or trade away minimal assets to move up a bit. If that QB don't work, take another shot at a QB again...

Edited August 26, 2017 by BillsFan4

[JerseyBills]

I'd take It a step further and say if we can stay relatively healthy we could be a contender now.

 

Imo it all comes down to how improved our defense is, and I believe through scheme and coach change,they will vastly improve.

 

A top 10 D combined with our Elite run game has always been a recipe for success in the NFL, through every era, including today's NFL, and we could realistically have both , I also have hope Taylor will improve his pass game but at the very least he will not lose us games

[26CornerBlitz]

I would take the embarrassment of a winless season if it would give us a shot of drafting franchise QB , we pretty much tried everything for the past 17 years , and that's in it's self ( IMO ) is even a bigger embarrassment then one winless season ,

+1

 

Previous mediocre results don't justify pursuing an unproven strategy.

[Thunderstealer]

I know everyone seems to struggle with nuance here.

 

Up until recently "tanking" was not part of the sports vocabulary. You can build something without tanking. That is what the Bills are doing.

 

 

• The Bills already have 6 picks in the top 100 next year. They will have great flexibility to go after a QB if they are dissatisfied with Taylor at the end of 2017.

• Peterman was picked to be a backup. Mid-round rookie QBs occasionally turn into Kirk Cousins, but regardless they are great ways to have cost-controlled backups who turn into future trade assets. New England has been doing this for years (Hoyer, Mallet, Jimmy G, etc.) We could get lucky with him, but right now he is completing 50% of his passes against the 2nd and 3rd stringers. He is not remotely prepared to start an NFL football game.

• Taylor could probably garner a 3rd rounder at this point - not a game-changer given the ammo the Bills already have. Somehow one bad preseason game proves that he cannot play and yet we could get great value for him. Okay.

• McCoy was traded 2 1/2 years ago and the Eagles got nothing. The Bills would not profit from that trade and he would represent a ton of dead money. Trading Kyle Williams would get what, a 5th round pick?

• The idea that the Boldin retirement would trigger a tank is bizarre and would truly mean that this team has no plan. Up until he signed, most Bills fans had given up on the idea that he was coming in the first place.

McDermott and Beane know that they are in the mushy middle of the AFC - nowhere close to Pats and Steelers, but several steps above the misery of Jags, Browns, and Jets. They HAVE to build for 2018 and beyond - and they have been doing that starting with the trade down for Tre White. The Watkins trade fits in that framework, but IT DOES NOT REPRESENT A TANK. Look at the Bovada odds - the Bills expected win total did not go down. Watkins or not, they are at best a wild-card team this year. They are like 10 other teams in the AFC that could win between 6 and 10 games depending on injuries, officiating, schedule, penalties, etc. The wild card is a worthy and realistic goal to compete for and would be a huge step towards where the team wants to go. Even if they go 7-9 again, McDermott wants this team "in the hunt" until December. It doesn't help him to start of his coaching career by going 3-13 with Nate Peterman. You are always on the clock in the NFL.

 

One great indicator of an executive's success is his/her ability to be future-oriented. If you read War Room you will see Belichick/Pioli were looking at the future, even as their '02 team unexpectedly went on a run and made the Super Bowl. Because of Brady's unexpected rise, the Pats have always been able to focus on the future. This is the way that McDermott and Beane are trying to run the team but it does not mean strip-mining the current roster.

The heavy lifting is done. We can go 12/4 and still have great draft possibilities. However when Thanksgiving rolls around, if we're not looking good, I can see us folding like a lawn chair.

[JerseyBills]

I don't think the problem is 7-9. The Pats continue to exceed year over year in spite of the hugely positive winning record each year. The issue has been that we are a very poor organization from talent evaluation to coaching to finances. Whaley by himself set us back nearly a decade.

2013 Draft: E.J. Manuel, Robert Woods, Kiko Alonso, Marquise Goodwin, Duke Williams, Jonathan Meeks, Dustin Hopkins, Chris Gragg - Grade: F

2014 Draft: Sammy Watkins, Cyrus Kouandjio, Preston Brown, Ross Cockrell, Cyril Richardson, Randell Johnson, Seantrel Henderson - Grade: F

 

Doug Whaley gave up 3 picks to move up to No. 4 in 2014 to draft Sammy Watkins.

5 receivers from that draft have more TDs than he does!

2015 Draft: Ronald Darby, John Miller, Karlos Williams, Tony Steward, Nick O'Leary, Dezmin Lewis - Grade: C+

2016 Draft: Shaq Lawson, Reggie Ragland, Adolphus Washington, Cardale Jones, Jonathan Williams, Kolby Listenbee, Kevon Seymour - Grade: C (TBD could only move lower)

 

Rex made the hole deeper and squandered the talent he had at the time. The new guys offer a breath of fresh air that I welcome. Time will tell as to whether they are the real deal and help us become successful.

Last year's draft should end up as a goodie I'm. Feel Shaq will be a stud, Adolphus is going to be good, Seymour and Williams as well. That's four major contributors plus a talented Ragland who hopefully comes on.

This year's draft I like too. White being a stud allowed the Darby trade and we have a number one cb for five years.

[Boatdrinks]

I'd take It a step further and say if we can stay relatively healthy we could be a contender now.

Imo it all comes down to how improved our defense is, and I believe through scheme and coach change,they will vastly improve.

A top 10 D combined with our Elite run game has always been a recipe for success in the NFL, through every era, including today's NFL, and we could realistically have both , I also have hope Taylor will improve his pass game but at the very least he will not lose us games

Scheme and Coaching changes on D won't mask the lack of talent and depth on this unit. They will make marginal improvements from last year, but stats may look worse overall because the Offense will be less productive than last season . They will be in worse situations most of the year .