Bills Fan of St Augustine Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 (edited) And how, pray tell, has the battle to 7-9 worked out for us? Has it built us a winning culture? Has it improved us? I don't think the problem is 7-9. The Pats continue to exceed year over year in spite of the hugely positive winning record each year. The issue has been that we are a very poor organization from talent evaluation to coaching to finances. Whaley by himself set us back nearly a decade. 2013 Draft: E.J. Manuel, Robert Woods, Kiko Alonso, Marquise Goodwin, Duke Williams, Jonathan Meeks, Dustin Hopkins, Chris Gragg - Grade: F 2014 Draft: Sammy Watkins, Cyrus Kouandjio, Preston Brown, Ross Cockrell, Cyril Richardson, Randell Johnson, Seantrel Henderson - Grade: F Doug Whaley gave up 3 picks to move up to No. 4 in 2014 to draft Sammy Watkins. 5 receivers from that draft have more TDs than he does! 2015 Draft: Ronald Darby, John Miller, Karlos Williams, Tony Steward, Nick O'Leary, Dezmin Lewis - Grade: C+ 2016 Draft: Shaq Lawson, Reggie Ragland, Adolphus Washington, Cardale Jones, Jonathan Williams, Kolby Listenbee, Kevon Seymour - Grade: C (TBD could only move lower) Rex made the hole deeper and squandered the talent he had at the time. The new guys offer a breath of fresh air that I welcome. Time will tell as to whether they are the real deal and help us become successful. Edited August 23, 2017 by Bills Fan of Maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Formerly Allan in MD Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Ownership and management of teams may want to tank as it bodes well for the future, i.e. accumulating high draft picks and ginning up interest and ticket sales for future seasons. And if in tanking you get rid of high salaried players not in your future plans, you save money and cap space. The ultimate is when owners in some pro sports, and some have done it, do everything they can to save money and not strive to build a winning team because this will keep fans away and lead to big tax write offs (remember the Rigas family that owned the Sabres?). However, players don't tank. It's detrimental to their individual reputations, future salaries, and stature to have bad seasons. It's thus illogical to believe players buy into the notion of tanking to possibly benefit the team down the road. They're generally too selfish these days to collectively think tanking will benefit them personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thurst44 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 No need to tank according to this ESPN Fantasy writer: @MikeClayNFL They say you learn something every day. Today I learned that many Bills fans are in massive denial as to how bad this team will be in 2017. Some writer says some form of this every year. I honestly don't get the logic. Does he think Rex Ryan was a genius? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Beane said it himself, 'the preferred financial model is to have a significant number of good players under their rookie contracts' you need to be able to afford what you have, knowing that free agency equals overpayment. amassing picks is good management, but it comes at a cost. if we hadn't traded at all this year we'd have malik hooker, darby, and sammy ready to kickass. Our team would be better now than it is, we took a short term hit for long term leverage. that's what some people call tanking, but it's simply gambling on personnel with a careful eye on the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris heff Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 And how, pray tell, has the battle to 7-9 worked out for us? Has it built us a winning culture? Has it improved us? You didn't answer the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 so this isn't a tank. call it a "rebuild" or "re-tooling" or whatever you want to call it. but it will take a few years to get the right players so hopefully they give McBeane enough time to finish their "process" How come the Fish didn't have to go through this get the right players nonsense? Their rookie HC was able to get them in in the first year. Is he smater than our new coach? gosh I hope not, we have to play them twice a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#34fan Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 (edited) How come the Fish didn't have to go through this get the right players nonsense? Their rookie HC was able to get them in in the first year. Is he smater than our new coach? gosh I hope not, we have to play them twice a year. Gase is very smart.... Too bad his first major f__k-up might cost him a season.... Jay Cutler is a sack waiting to happen on every down... At least our defense will get some highlight-reel material. Edited August 23, 2017 by #34fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 You didn't answer the question. The question is ridiculous. And your so-called debunking of the cowboys and colts was as well, that's why I haven't answered it. Do you seriously believe we wouldn't have been better off losing in the years that luck Winston or mariota were available? We need a QB. The team needs to do everything possible to get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 How come the Fish didn't have to go through this get the right players nonsense? Their rookie HC was able to get them in in the first year. Is he smater than our new coach? gosh I hope not, we have to play them twice a year. Because they kept most of the same coaches including the entire defense. We change schemes every 2 years from 3-4 to 4-3 and have to get different players on defense and then learn the new plays. They only changed the offense. But don't get too excited, the Dolphins stink too. Do you really aspire to be the Dolphins? That's depressing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpleman Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 (edited) There is no reason to tank for an unknown unless you really have no talent on your roster. We still have plenty of talent. And if we were really tanking, Shady, Tyrod, Kyle and Wood would all be gone by now. The question is how valuable is the talent you have. Tyrod is just a mediocre starter, he is far from a Franchise QB. On offense we have Shady, who IS top shelf talent. At WR we have hopeful potential in Jones, but don't yet know if he will fulfill our wishes. On the OL we have a top shelf LT with an injury history, a top shelf LG approaching the end of his career. A starting TE with a serious injury history. We have question marks starting at S, LB. Kyle is probably in his last year. We have Dareus who is top shelf, but does not always give the effort he should to be top shelf. Hughes who is top shelf, but is a penalty machine because of his lack of control. White who is a rookie that we hope will fulfill our dreams, but is unproven. An unproven Lawson we have hopes for but don't yet know if he is capable of fulfilling our hopes. Building for the future, that is not a lot of talent to build on two years out. The rest of the team is either unproven, nearing the end of their career, or is easily replaceable and can be swapped out with similar talent. Not a lot of basis to build on two years out. And we have already effectively sacrificed this year by downgrading our talent to build for that "future". We lost Sammy, Darby, Woods, Gillmore, Gillislee. All proven talent. This year we have huge drop in the level of proven talent from last year. While it might not be a full tank, it is definitely a team much weaker in talent than the previous year. And it is that way from the choices made by of the management of the team. Call it sacrificing the present in the hopes of being better in the future, or call it a partial tank, they are the same thing whatever you call it. Isn't in fact "tanking" defined as making decisions than weaken your team this year in hopes of being a stronger team in a future year. Edited August 23, 2017 by simpleman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 I know everyone seems to struggle with nuance here. Up until recently "tanking" was not part of the sports vocabulary. You can build something without tanking. That is what the Bills are doing. The Bills already have 6 picks in the top 100 next year. They will have great flexibility to go after a QB if they are dissatisfied with Taylor at the end of 2017. Peterman was picked to be a backup. Mid-round rookie QBs occasionally turn into Kirk Cousins, but regardless they are great ways to have cost-controlled backups who turn into future trade assets. New England has been doing this for years (Hoyer, Mallet, Jimmy G, etc.) We could get lucky with him, but right now he is completing 50% of his passes against the 2nd and 3rd stringers. He is not remotely prepared to start an NFL football game. Taylor could probably garner a 3rd rounder at this point - not a game-changer given the ammo the Bills already have. Somehow one bad preseason game proves that he cannot play and yet we could get great value for him. Okay. McCoy was traded 2 1/2 years ago and the Eagles got nothing. The Bills would not profit from that trade and he would represent a ton of dead money. Trading Kyle Williams would get what, a 5th round pick? The idea that the Boldin retirement would trigger a tank is bizarre and would truly mean that this team has no plan. Up until he signed, most Bills fans had given up on the idea that he was coming in the first place. McDermott and Beane know that they are in the mushy middle of the AFC - nowhere close to Pats and Steelers, but several steps above the misery of Jags, Browns, and Jets. They HAVE to build for 2018 and beyond - and they have been doing that starting with the trade down for Tre White. The Watkins trade fits in that framework, but IT DOES NOT REPRESENT A TANK. Look at the Bovada odds - the Bills expected win total did not go down. Watkins or not, they are at best a wild-card team this year. They are like 10 other teams in the AFC that could win between 6 and 10 games depending on injuries, officiating, schedule, penalties, etc. The wild card is a worthy and realistic goal to compete for and would be a huge step towards where the team wants to go. Even if they go 7-9 again, McDermott wants this team "in the hunt" until December. It doesn't help him to start of his coaching career by going 3-13 with Nate Peterman. You are always on the clock in the NFL. One great indicator of an executive's success is his/her ability to be future-oriented. If you read War Room you will see Belichick/Pioli were looking at the future, even as their '02 team unexpectedly went on a run and made the Super Bowl. Because of Brady's unexpected rise, the Pats have always been able to focus on the future. This is the way that McDermott and Beane are trying to run the team but it does not mean strip-mining the current roster. this really was a fantastic post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Tanking in the NFL is stupid and pointless. Rosters are too big. Draft picks are too unpredictable. Careers are too short. The salary cap is too complicated. In the NBA, tanking makes a ton of sense. You can trade away your aging talent, bottom out, get a couple high draft picks, land 1-2 young superstars and completely turn a franchise around for the next decade. You don't really need to be a brilliant GM to find success. You just need to make a few smart moves. Once you get the pieces in place, it's easy to maintain. In the NFL, you are constantly juggling 22 starting positions and 50+ roster slots. By the time you start drafting the finishing pieces, the other parts of your roster are hitting free agency or getting old and ineffective. The only way to maintain consistent success in the NFL is through good drafting, year after year, always keeping the pipeline full and replacing old productive players with younger and cheaper players without a drop-off. You can get lucky as a GM a few times, but if you don't know what you are doing, pretty soon your weakness will be exposed and the team will fall apart. Having a ton of draft picks in 2018 is nice. But (by trading Watkins and Darby) we now have two extra roster spots to fill. Instead of needing to hit on 3 picks next year, Brandon Beane needs to hit on 5 to really make progress with the team. And then we have the impending roster turnover of Kyle Williams, LeSean McCoy, Eric Wood, Ritchie Incognito, etc., which is bound to happen within the next 1-3 seasons. We will need a constant influx of young talent to fill those spots. Truthfully, bottoming out in 2017 will gain us nothing in the long run. We just need to cross our fingers that Beane is the right guy for the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Even if we get the 5th pick in the draft we will more than likely get the 4th choice in the QB's in the draft. There is no way we will be worse than the Jets, Cleveland, San Francisco. We could have 10 #1's and we will not get ahead of any one of those teams. So Tanking would not help our draft position to get better than the 4th QB on the board. The premise here is that I think the 49ers will get Cousins in FA 2018. That is Shanahan's guy and the writing is on the wall. Cousins can say all the right things if he wants to for now, but I truly find it hard to believe he will re-sign with the Skins after Allen's childish behavior in the offseason. Second, I think it is quite possible Hue will stick with Kizer. Donovan McNabb reincarnate imo, but they could look elsewhere. Also, don't be surprised if the Browns sneak up on a few teams to win 5 or 6 games this year. I think that is our ceiling at this point in time so we could end up in front of them. The Jets without a doubt are a team that will be in the market. No questioning this. I think the other team that will surely be in the market is Jax. Bortles seems to be a lost cause and Henne is, well, Henne. Their defense should be good enough to win them some games, but they are a team to watch in the QB sweepstakes. Our schedule puts us right there if you ask me, but things could shake out different. My hope is for Darnold or Allen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCBongo Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Best case scenario TT or Peterman turn out to be reliable, serviceable quarterbacks where you can use the depth of draft picks to build a supporting cast around them. Team have been competitive and won Super Bowls without stud QBs. Bucs and Ravens won without a HOF QB and the Mario Dolphins went to one, but won none. We need to wait and see if the WR corps has anything reliable and linebackers and secondary are currently unproven. McDermott is showing potential as a long term coach and hopefully will be a better game day planner than his predecessor. I think the days are getting better for Bills fans and while this year may be tough and fun, I feel we will be heading out of the perpetual 8-8 and become a consistent contender. I also have one month twins and not sleeping as much as I should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris heff Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 (edited) The question is ridiculous. And your so-called debunking of the cowboys and colts was as well, that's why I haven't answered it. Do you seriously believe we wouldn't have been better off losing in the years that luck Winston or mariota were available? We need a QB. The team needs to do everything possible to get one. I didn't say the Bills didn't need a QB and the question is valid. The reason you can't answer it is because no franchise in the history of the NFL has employed the strategy you continue to rant about. The Colts didn't actively plan to tank for unless you believe they planned Payton's injury. Aikman and Irvin were already on the Cowboy's roster and they were 0-5 when they traded Walker. Furthermore why trade Taylor or McCoy now? Why not wait until a team that has an injury, that believes they are a contender is desperate. Edited August 23, 2017 by chris heff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Everybody is so focused on where the Bills are going to draft next year. The real issue and root of the problem is how good Beane and his scouting staff are at identifying talent. If they are very good at identifying talent, then they will get a quarterback no matter where the Bills start out on draft day. If Beane and his staff are not good at identifying talent, then the Bills are screwed no matter where they end up drafting on draft day. That is what really matters. That is the root of the issue. Draft position is mostly irrelevant. The Bills already have enough ammo to move higher on day 1 if they really feel the need to because they aren't high enough to start with. The Pegulas and Beane ought to be focused on figuring out how to identify talent better than any other team. If they can do that, the Bills will be making playoff appearances for the next couple decades. If they suck at it, the Bills will not be making playoff appearances for at least another few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Everybody is so focused on where the Bills are going to draft next year. The real issue and root of the problem is how good Beane and his scouting staff are at identifying talent. If they are very good at identifying talent, then they will get a quarterback no matter where the Bills start out on draft day. If Beane and his staff are not good at identifying talent, then the Bills are screwed no matter where they end up drafting on draft day. That is what really matters. That is the root of the issue. Draft position is mostly irrelevant. The Bills already have enough ammo to move higher on day 1 if they really feel the need to because they aren't high enough to start with. The Pegulas and Beane ought to be focused on figuring out how to identify talent better than any other team. If they can do that, the Bills will be making playoff appearances for the next couple decades. If they suck at it, the Bills will not be making playoff appearances for at least another few years. Could not agree any more with this perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWins Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Tanking is certainly not "pointless". We are talking about the Bills ability to draft the "face of their franchise" for anywhere between the next 15-20 yrs. Just look at the longetivity of the top QB's currently in the NFL. QB's can play well into their late 30's and early 40's. If "tanking" results in a 3 win season in 2017 vs a 7 win season so what. 7-9 gets you nothing but a worse draft position. You are not making the playoffs without reaching 10 wins in most seasons. Who the Bills are able to draft in 2018 will have a tremendous effect on McD's coaching career. Those who subscribe to the belief that TT is NOT the answer at QB should embrace the idea of trading TT now and suffering for 1 year knowing that the future will be a hell of a lot brighter afterwards. Yes that assumes that Beane and McD are as good at their jobs as we are being told. If they are not then we are F$cked anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfan1972 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Tanking in the NFL is stupid and pointless. Rosters are too big. Draft picks are too unpredictable. Careers are too short. The salary cap is too complicated. In the NBA, tanking makes a ton of sense. You can trade away your aging talent, bottom out, get a couple high draft picks, land 1-2 young superstars and completely turn a franchise around for the next decade. You don't really need to be a brilliant GM to find success. You just need to make a few smart moves. Once you get the pieces in place, it's easy to maintain. In the NFL, you are constantly juggling 22 starting positions and 50+ roster slots. By the time you start drafting the finishing pieces, the other parts of your roster are hitting free agency or getting old and ineffective. The only way to maintain consistent success in the NFL is through good drafting, year after year, always keeping the pipeline full and replacing old productive players with younger and cheaper players without a drop-off. You can get lucky as a GM a few times, but if you don't know what you are doing, pretty soon your weakness will be exposed and the team will fall apart. Having a ton of draft picks in 2018 is nice. But (by trading Watkins and Darby) we now have two extra roster spots to fill. Instead of needing to hit on 3 picks next year, Brandon Beane needs to hit on 5 to really make progress with the team. And then we have the impending roster turnover of Kyle Williams, LeSean McCoy, Eric Wood, Ritchie Incognito, etc., which is bound to happen within the next 1-3 seasons. We will need a constant influx of young talent to fill those spots. Truthfully, bottoming out in 2017 will gain us nothing in the long run. We just need to cross our fingers that Beane is the right guy for the job. Now this is a good post. The OP was okay until commenting on Watkins. The loss could potentially be huge as he is a proven talent and could be a superstar if two things happened as a Bill. 1. 10 Targets/game, which is in line with what #1 receivers with his talent get 2. Stays healthy Sorry to me that was not a stretch. Trading him and Darby resulted in a worse team. Heck as I state it is a crapshoot and look at how lucky they got with Lorenzo Alexander, who was almost out of football and now better then many drafted Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Everybody is so focused on where the Bills are going to draft next year. The real issue and root of the problem is how good Beane and his scouting staff are at identifying talent. If they are very good at identifying talent, then they will get a quarterback no matter where the Bills start out on draft day. If Beane and his staff are not good at identifying talent, then the Bills are screwed no matter where they end up drafting on draft day. That is what really matters. That is the root of the issue. Draft position is mostly irrelevant. The Bills already have enough ammo to move higher on day 1 if they really feel the need to because they aren't high enough to start with. The Pegulas and Beane ought to be focused on figuring out how to identify talent better than any other team. If they can do that, the Bills will be making playoff appearances for the next couple decades. If they suck at it, the Bills will not be making playoff appearances for at least another few years. this is all very true. it looks like the bills dumped a ton of resources into the scouting dept this off season, (or at least people seem to really like the hires, but we know how that can go) so i'm mildly optimistic about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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