The Insanity of Tanking Talk

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

This is my worry. I highly doubt that we'd be picking ahead of the Jets and Niners. Both, especially the Jets, as desperate for a QB and I don't see the Jets giving a division rival first crack at QB.

 

And if you could eliminate that worry, wouldn't you?

 

I would.

 

Take the sure bet. Trade shady and tyrod.

 

Tank for 2 wins.

[Albwan]

 

And if you could eliminate that worry, wouldn't you?

 

I would.

 

Take the sure bet. Trade shady and tyrod.

 

Tank for 2 wins.

all they need to do is get rid of shady. 4 win team at best

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

The problem that people are failing to see is that there may not be a taker for all of that draft capital. Jets, 49ers, Jags, Dolphins, Browns and Cardinals can all be worse than the Bills. They could all be looking at QB. It takes 2 to tango and you may not find the willing trade partner.

Not one active NFL QB's SuperBowl ring came from a tank.

 

0 out of 6. Only 1 was even drafted on the top 10.

 

Tanking for one guy doesn't work when you need 22 starters + ST and depth to compete.

[Guest NeckBeard]

I really like this posting OP. It was a pleasure to read!

 

I may have missed this in your original posting, but something to consider would be the tenure of the FO/HC. In regimes past they were both putrid, and that lead to change, and after the change didn't work, more change. If this organization is interested in winning, then going the distance with this regime is paramount. If the FO/HC can't make it work with a new QB, then they need to find another QB quickly, but at the same time they need to be given the time and space to let things work out. The same would go with any highly-drafted player, but obviously QB is an area in which this organization has failed multiple times. For me the whole thing comes down to picking players who perform (and who you can retain), and sticking to a plan and philosophy for the long(er) term.

[harmonkillebrew]

I know everyone seems to struggle with nuance here.

 

Up until recently "tanking" was not part of the sports vocabulary. You can build something without tanking. That is what the Bills are doing.

 

• The Bills already have 6 picks in the top 100 next year. They will have great flexibility to go after a QB if they are dissatisfied with Taylor at the end of 2017.

 

• Peterman was picked to be a backup. Mid-round rookie QBs occasionally turn into Kirk Cousins, but regardless they are great ways to have cost-controlled backups who turn into future trade assets. New England has been doing this for years (Hoyer, Mallet, Jimmy G, etc.) We could get lucky with him, but right now he is completing 50% of his passes against the 2nd and 3rd stringers. He is not remotely prepared to start an NFL football game.

 

• Taylor could probably garner a 3rd rounder at this point - not a game-changer given the ammo the Bills already have. Somehow one bad preseason game proves that he cannot play and yet we could get great value for him. Okay.

 

• McCoy was traded 2 1/2 years ago and the Eagles got nothing. The Bills would not profit from that trade and he would represent a ton of dead money. Trading Kyle Williams would get what, a 5th round pick?

 

• The idea that the Boldin retirement would trigger a tank is bizarre and would truly mean that this team has no plan. Up until he signed, most Bills fans had given up on the idea that he was coming in the first place.

 

McDermott and Beane know that they are in the mushy middle of the AFC - nowhere close to Pats and Steelers, but several steps above the misery of Jags, Browns, and Jets. They HAVE to build for 2018 and beyond - and they have been doing that starting with the trade down for Tre White. The Watkins trade fits in that framework, but IT DOES NOT REPRESENT A TANK. Look at the Bovada odds - the Bills expected win total did not go down. Watkins or not, they are at best a wild-card team this year. They are like 10 other teams in the AFC that could win between 6 and 10 games depending on injuries, officiating, schedule, penalties, etc. The wild card is a worthy and realistic goal to compete for and would be a huge step towards where the team wants to go. Even if they go 7-9 again, McDermott wants this team "in the hunt" until December. It doesn't help him to start of his coaching career by going 3-13 with Nate Peterman. You are always on the clock in the NFL.

 

One great indicator of an executive's success is his/her ability to be future-oriented. If you read War Room you will see Belichick/Pioli were looking at the future, even as their '02 team unexpectedly went on a run and made the Super Bowl. Because of Brady's unexpected rise, the Pats have always been able to focus on the future. This is the way that McDermott and Beane are trying to run the team but it does not mean strip-mining the current roster.

 

 

 

Saying "tank" is alot easier, but means the same. It's a strategic decision to win less games now for future gain. Nothing wrong with that so long as you do it right and don't sacrifice your organizational culture in the process. The Bills are doing it well so far by denying it to kingdom come. Then Boldin went and retired adding fuel to the fire that we're a lost cause.

[Billsfan1972]

So what you're saying is embrace a team that will again not make the playoffs, made trades that have made them worse and won't get them in the top 5 and trust rookie coaches and gm's to make the right decisions.

 

Good thing all 32 teams can play in empty stadiums, turn a profit and sell WNY fans on hope......

 

How about 2-3 tweaks, swinging for the fences and actually making the playoffs. Already the longest drought in the NFL and already anticipating another 3-4 years to get this regime acclimated and give them a chance?

 

And this was a great post??????

 

Wow, just wow......

[Fadingpain]

The problem that people are failing to see is that there may not be a taker for all of that draft capital. Jets, 49ers, Jags, Dolphins, Browns and Cardinals can all be worse than the Bills. They could all be looking at QB. It takes 2 to tango and you may not find the willing trade partner.

Then the picks can be used as picks.

That's the beauty of currency. You can spend it anyway you want.

[Saxum]

 

• McCoy was traded 2 1/2 years ago and the Eagles got nothing. The Bills would not profit from that trade and he would represent a ton of dead money.

 

Disagree on this point. They got a starting LB with potential and a low $$ contract. That player is still starting for another team so the issue was not on the trade but the coach/GM who was running the team.

 

Otherwise i mostly agree.

[BillsfanAZ]

I hate when I see people saying tank. The Bills are not trading Taylor or McCoy. The Bills are only slightly less talented after the trades than they were before. It wont be the reason for losses. I see the Jets, Browns, Jags, and 49ers all picking ahead of the Bills next year. Hopefully more than just two of the top QB's declare for the draft.

[outsidethebox]

I hate when I see people saying tank. The Bills are not trading Taylor or McCoy. The Bills are only slightly less talented after the trades than they were before. It wont be the reason for losses. I see the Jets, Browns, Jags, and 49ers all picking ahead of the Bills next year. Hopefully more than just two of the top QB's declare for the draft.

Good post. I agree. We are not tanking in my opinion.

[Saxum]

They're not going to intentionally tank, but the schedule may bring us a top 5 pick.

 

Maybe they can trade into it but the Bills will NOT be getting a top 5 pick due to record.

[WhoTom]

Good post, Flip. It's easy to say, "Go get a franchise QB!" but it's not so simple in reality. Meanwhile, you've got to play the hand you were dealt and draw/discard as best you can. You're right - at best, the Bills are a wildcard contender right now. That's the reality.

[Billsfan1972]

Good post, Flip. It's easy to say, "Go get a franchise QB!" but it's not so simple in reality. Meanwhile, you've got to play the hand you were dealt and draw/discard as best you can. You're right - at best, the Bills are a wildcard contender right now. That's the reality.

And made two trades that made them worse this year..... When you give away the best player in any trade you are trading down.

 

How is that trying to win????

[jethro_tull]

I know everyone seems to struggle with nuance here.

 

Up until recently "tanking" was not part of the sports vocabulary. You can build something without tanking. That is what the Bills are doing.

 

• The Bills already have 6 picks in the top 100 next year. They will have great flexibility to go after a QB if they are dissatisfied with Taylor at the end of 2017.

 

• Peterman was picked to be a backup. Mid-round rookie QBs occasionally turn into Kirk Cousins, but regardless they are great ways to have cost-controlled backups who turn into future trade assets. New England has been doing this for years (Hoyer, Mallet, Jimmy G, etc.) We could get lucky with him, but right now he is completing 50% of his passes against the 2nd and 3rd stringers. He is not remotely prepared to start an NFL football game.

 

• Taylor could probably garner a 3rd rounder at this point - not a game-changer given the ammo the Bills already have. Somehow one bad preseason game proves that he cannot play and yet we could get great value for him. Okay.

 

• McCoy was traded 2 1/2 years ago and the Eagles got nothing. The Bills would not profit from that trade and he would represent a ton of dead money. Trading Kyle Williams would get what, a 5th round pick?

 

• The idea that the Boldin retirement would trigger a tank is bizarre and would truly mean that this team has no plan. Up until he signed, most Bills fans had given up on the idea that he was coming in the first place.

 

McDermott and Beane know that they are in the mushy middle of the AFC - nowhere close to Pats and Steelers, but several steps above the misery of Jags, Browns, and Jets. They HAVE to build for 2018 and beyond - and they have been doing that starting with the trade down for Tre White. The Watkins trade fits in that framework, but IT DOES NOT REPRESENT A TANK. Look at the Bovada odds - the Bills expected win total did not go down. Watkins or not, they are at best a wild-card team this year. They are like 10 other teams in the AFC that could win between 6 and 10 games depending on injuries, officiating, schedule, penalties, etc. The wild card is a worthy and realistic goal to compete for and would be a huge step towards where the team wants to go. Even if they go 7-9 again, McDermott wants this team "in the hunt" until December. It doesn't help him to start of his coaching career by going 3-13 with Nate Peterman. You are always on the clock in the NFL.

 

One great indicator of an executive's success is his/her ability to be future-oriented. If you read War Room you will see Belichick/Pioli were looking at the future, even as their '02 team unexpectedly went on a run and made the Super Bowl. Because of Brady's unexpected rise, the Pats have always been able to focus on the future. This is the way that McDermott and Beane are trying to run the team but it does not mean strip-mining the current roster.

 

 

 

I agree with you and even with the Watkins trade not representing a tank move - on paper at least. However when your new GM gets rid of the best receiver on the team who has looked healthy and ready to commit during preseason- this move comes off as a tank move and not a "win now" move.

No matter how you look at it, rightly or wrongly, the Watkins trade sends a signal that many fans interpret as a rebuild move (and probably players as well). It is the psychological aspect that hits home, not the analytics side of the deal. Bean F'd up IMHO, big time.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

I know everyone seems to struggle with nuance here.

 

Up until recently "tanking" was not part of the sports vocabulary. You can build something without tanking. That is what the Bills are doing.

 

• The Bills already have 6 picks in the top 100 next year. They will have great flexibility to go after a QB if they are dissatisfied with Taylor at the end of 2017.

 

• Peterman was picked to be a backup. Mid-round rookie QBs occasionally turn into Kirk Cousins, but regardless they are great ways to have cost-controlled backups who turn into future trade assets. New England has been doing this for years (Hoyer, Mallet, Jimmy G, etc.) We could get lucky with him, but right now he is completing 50% of his passes against the 2nd and 3rd stringers. He is not remotely prepared to start an NFL football game.

 

• Taylor could probably garner a 3rd rounder at this point - not a game-changer given the ammo the Bills already have. Somehow one bad preseason game proves that he cannot play and yet we could get great value for him. Okay.

 

• McCoy was traded 2 1/2 years ago and the Eagles got nothing. The Bills would not profit from that trade and he would represent a ton of dead money. Trading Kyle Williams would get what, a 5th round pick?

 

• The idea that the Boldin retirement would trigger a tank is bizarre and would truly mean that this team has no plan. Up until he signed, most Bills fans had given up on the idea that he was coming in the first place.

 

McDermott and Beane know that they are in the mushy middle of the AFC - nowhere close to Pats and Steelers, but several steps above the misery of Jags, Browns, and Jets. They HAVE to build for 2018 and beyond - and they have been doing that starting with the trade down for Tre White. The Watkins trade fits in that framework, but IT DOES NOT REPRESENT A TANK. Look at the Bovada odds - the Bills expected win total did not go down. Watkins or not, they are at best a wild-card team this year. They are like 10 other teams in the AFC that could win between 6 and 10 games depending on injuries, officiating, schedule, penalties, etc. The wild card is a worthy and realistic goal to compete for and would be a huge step towards where the team wants to go. Even if they go 7-9 again, McDermott wants this team "in the hunt" until December. It doesn't help him to start of his coaching career by going 3-13 with Nate Peterman. You are always on the clock in the NFL.

 

One great indicator of an executive's success is his/her ability to be future-oriented. If you read War Room you will see Belichick/Pioli were looking at the future, even as their '02 team unexpectedly went on a run and made the Super Bowl. Because of Brady's unexpected rise, the Pats have always been able to focus on the future. This is the way that McDermott and Beane are trying to run the team but it does not mean strip-mining the current roster.

 

 

 

.

excellent post. very rational perspective.

[Kirby Jackson]

Not one active NFL QB's SuperBowl ring came from a tank.

 

0 out of 6. Only 1 was even drafted on the top 10.

 

Tanking for one guy doesn't work when you need 22 starters + ST and depth to compete.

That's exactly why you deal Shady and Tyrod. When you are ready to win will they be a part of that? I don't think so. Will the Bills pick earlier without them? I think so. If they pick earlier they are able to get their QB while preserving the other picks to fill out the roster.

[8-8 Forever?]

The problem that people are failing to see is that there may not be a taker for all of that draft capital. Jets, 49ers, Jags, Dolphins, Browns and Cardinals can all be worse than the Bills. They could all be looking at QB. It takes 2 to tango and you may not find the willing trade partner.

yep. tank with honor. that would be the best result. sorry to say it, but its true. this team needs to reload in next years draft and will need all its picks if at all possible. going 6-10 and having to blow next years 1st, both this years 1st's to move up (that may not be enough --- 6-10 is pretty bad situation) is not where you want to be. people need to consult the draft position value chart to see how expensive it is even to go from 6th to 1st in the draft.. it is steep

Edited August 22, 2017 by jmcraig44

[fansince88]

I didnt hear a Harumph from that guy. Give the governor a harumph

[chris heff]

And if you could eliminate that worry, wouldn't you?

 

I would.

 

Take the sure bet. Trade shady and tyrod.

 

Tank for 2 wins.

You keep pounding away at this. In three different threads I've asked the question when has tanking, in the NFL, as a planned thought out strategy prior to the season beginning ever been executed, resulting in the creation of a dynasty? The two examples are the Colts and Cowboys, both have been debunked. So know I ask give is an example?

[K D]

this is definitely not a tank but you better believe that a new GM and a new coach with all new positional coaches will want "their" guys and we are in a rebuild until our roster has those guys. Rex was overconfident in thinking his scheme was the end all be all and it didn't matter that he didn't have the correct personnel to run it because the scheme is more important than the players which is completely idiotic! the players make the plays and once you are out there it's all instinct.

 

so this isn't a tank. call it a "rebuild" or "re-tooling" or whatever you want to call it. but it will take a few years to get the right players so hopefully they give McBeane enough time to finish their "process"