The Insanity of Tanking Talk

[Flip Johnson]

I know everyone seems to struggle with nuance here.

 

Up until recently "tanking" was not part of the sports vocabulary. You can build something without tanking. That is what the Bills are doing.

 

• The Bills already have 6 picks in the top 100 next year. They will have great flexibility to go after a QB if they are dissatisfied with Taylor at the end of 2017.

 

• Peterman was picked to be a backup. Mid-round rookie QBs occasionally turn into Kirk Cousins, but regardless they are great ways to have cost-controlled backups who turn into future trade assets. New England has been doing this for years (Hoyer, Mallet, Jimmy G, etc.) We could get lucky with him, but right now he is completing 50% of his passes against the 2nd and 3rd stringers. He is not remotely prepared to start an NFL football game.

 

• Taylor could probably garner a 3rd rounder at this point - not a game-changer given the ammo the Bills already have. Somehow one bad preseason game proves that he cannot play and yet we could get great value for him. Okay.

 

• McCoy was traded 2 1/2 years ago and the Eagles got nothing. The Bills would not profit from that trade and he would represent a ton of dead money. Trading Kyle Williams would get what, a 5th round pick?

 

• The idea that the Boldin retirement would trigger a tank is bizarre and would truly mean that this team has no plan. Up until he signed, most Bills fans had given up on the idea that he was coming in the first place.

 

McDermott and Beane know that they are in the mushy middle of the AFC - nowhere close to Pats and Steelers, but several steps above the misery of Jags, Browns, and Jets. They HAVE to build for 2018 and beyond - and they have been doing that starting with the trade down for Tre White. The Watkins trade fits in that framework, but IT DOES NOT REPRESENT A TANK. Look at the Bovada odds - the Bills expected win total did not go down. Watkins or not, they are at best a wild-card team this year. They are like 10 other teams in the AFC that could win between 6 and 10 games depending on injuries, officiating, schedule, penalties, etc. The wild card is a worthy and realistic goal to compete for and would be a huge step towards where the team wants to go. Even if they go 7-9 again, McDermott wants this team "in the hunt" until December. It doesn't help him to start of his coaching career by going 3-13 with Nate Peterman. You are always on the clock in the NFL.

 

One great indicator of an executive's success is his/her ability to be future-oriented. If you read War Room you will see Belichick/Pioli were looking at the future, even as their '02 team unexpectedly went on a run and made the Super Bowl. Because of Brady's unexpected rise, the Pats have always been able to focus on the future. This is the way that McDermott and Beane are trying to run the team but it does not mean strip-mining the current roster.

 

 

 

[Steptide]

Talking realistically will. Get you nowhere with bills fans. Good post

[Bills fan since 87]

Heck of a post, agree 100%

[26CornerBlitz]

Good perspective.

[outsidethebox]

While I agree with much of what you said. The fact that everyone seems to be forgetting is, we have a rookie coach and a rookie GM. I don't think they will come in and set the NFL on fire. They will have to learn the nuances of the game that they never had to think about before. I expect them to make mistakes. That's part of the learning curve. If we want them to be successful, we have to let them do what they think is the right moves for team.

This may mean 2-3 years of losing football. But it doesn't mean they will all of a sudden turn into the Browns.

Just my 2 cents. But, what the hell do I know. Lol

Go Bills!!!!

[Kirby Jackson]

The problem that people are failing to see is that there may not be a taker for all of that draft capital. Jets, 49ers, Jags, Dolphins, Browns and Cardinals can all be worse than the Bills. They could all be looking at QB. It takes 2 to tango and you may not find the willing trade partner.

[QCity]

I know everyone seems to struggle with nuance here.

 

Up until recently "tanking" was not part of the sports vocabulary. You can build something without tanking. That is what the Bills are doing.

 

• The Bills already have 6 picks in the top 100 next year. They will have great flexibility to go after a QB if they are dissatisfied with Taylor at the end of 2017.

 

• Peterman was picked to be a backup. Mid-round rookie QBs occasionally turn into Kirk Cousins, but regardless they are great ways to have cost-controlled backups who turn into future trade assets. New England has been doing this for years (Hoyer, Mallet, Jimmy G, etc.) We could get lucky with him, but right now he is completing 50% of his passes against the 2nd and 3rd stringers. He is not remotely prepared to start an NFL football game.

 

• Taylor could probably garner a 3rd rounder at this point - not a game-changer given the ammo the Bills already have. Somehow one bad preseason game proves that he cannot play and yet we could get great value for him. Okay.

 

• McCoy was traded 2 1/2 years ago and the Eagles got nothing. The Bills would not profit from that trade and he would represent a ton of dead money. Trading Kyle Williams would get what, a 5th round pick?

 

• The idea that the Boldin retirement would trigger a tank is bizarre and would truly mean that this team has no plan. Up until he signed, most Bills fans had given up on the idea that he was coming in the first place.

 

McDermott and Beane know that they are in the mushy middle of the AFC - nowhere close to Pats and Steelers, but several steps above the misery of Jags, Browns, and Jets. They HAVE to build for 2018 and beyond - and they have been doing that starting with the trade down for Tre White. The Watkins trade fits in that framework, but IT DOES NOT REPRESENT A TANK. Look at the Bovada odds - the Bills expected win total did not go down. Watkins or not, they are at best a wild-card team this year. They are like 10 other teams in the AFC that could win between 6 and 10 games depending on injuries, officiating, schedule, penalties, etc. The wild card is a worthy and realistic goal to compete for and would be a huge step towards where the team wants to go. Even if they go 7-9 again, McDermott wants this team "in the hunt" until December. It doesn't help him to start of his coaching career by going 3-13 with Nate Peterman. You are always on the clock in the NFL.

 

One great indicator of an executive's success is his/her ability to be future-oriented. If you read War Room you will see Belichick/Pioli were looking at the future, even as their '02 team unexpectedly went on a run and made the Super Bowl. Because of Brady's unexpected rise, the Pats have always been able to focus on the future. This is the way that McDermott and Beane are trying to run the team but it does not mean strip-mining the current roster.

 

 

 

 

A great post and you are 100% correct. Unfortunately, it will likely fall on deaf ears. Since UFA began in the 90s, this organization has never had a front office attempt to build a team through the draft, so this fan base has never seen it first hand. All they know is how to build through free agency, aka the "Win Now" approach (which is of course absolutely moronic). Sustained winning requires a constant infusion of cheap, young talent from the draft. That and a QB.

 

Also, the years of losing have clearly taken their emotional toll, as evidenced by the hysterics over every offseason move.

[Nick the Greek]

Hope you're right.. I wanna good season!

Edited August 22, 2017 by Idandria

[Big C]

Any draft pick is a risk. You can trade up for a sure-fire guy that ends up busting out. You can luck into the greatest QB of your era in the 6th round. Sucking for Luck still hasn't gotten the Colts a Super Bowl appearance.

 

There is practically as much chance as Nathan Peterman becoming our guy than whoever we might tank for next year - again we don't even know who that might be.

 

There is no reason to tank for an unknown unless you really have no talent on your roster. We still have plenty of talent. And if we were really tanking, Shady, Tyrod, Kyle and Wood would all be gone by now.

[thurst44]

The problem that people are failing to see is that there may not be a taker for all of that draft capital. Jets, 49ers, Jags, Dolphins, Browns and Cardinals can all be worse than the Bills. They could all be looking at QB. It takes 2 to tango and you may not find the willing trade partner.

This is such a key point. There's also the Bears and Rams, and I could see the Bengals falling apart (but that's just a hunch). This is one of the worst possible years to try to tank (imo it's a dumb game plan at any time). We still have a decent amount of talent, and there have even been some good signs even in what seems like a dreadful start to pre-season (defense, run game), so let's hope we do well (and if the Rams are truly as bad as they could be, we'll have three picks in the first 33, and can use them to bolster a promising team.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

Good post

 

 

 

CBF

[QCity]

The problem that people are failing to see is that there may not be a taker for all of that draft capital. Jets, 49ers, Jags, Dolphins, Browns and Cardinals can all be worse than the Bills. They could all be looking at QB. It takes 2 to tango and you may not find the willing trade partner.

 

Most around here believe that we are going to trade all this capital for the highest pick we can get and draft a QB. I don't think that's necessarily the case. I certainly think we will draft a QB in the 1st round, but trading up for one is not a given. This team is not a QB away from contending. Beane is preaching the future-orientated approach, and I can tell you that some of our most talented players like Kyle W, Shady, Wood, Incognito are not part of our future. There's no shortage of positions to use draft picks on.

 

I don't think anything better highlights the confusion over this than fans screaming "Tank." This isn't a one-year-and-done approach, where we will sink back to spending big money on FA's next year. I expect an average of 8-9 draft picks every year, not the 6-7 we were getting in the Whaley regime. That's how the top front offices build teams.

 

When T.J.Yates starts game 1 under center, then you can yell "Tank."

[4_kidd_4]

Overall, it looks like a proper rebuild for the long term.

 

A "mini-tank" only for 2017 season fits in with that. All that 'capital' plus a potential top 5 overall pick in 2018. Not a bad idea.

[nedboy7]

Wow. An intelligent post? Bless you.

[Boatdrinks]

The problem that people are failing to see is that there may not be a taker for all of that draft capital. Jets, 49ers, Jags, Dolphins, Browns and Cardinals can all be worse than the Bills. They could all be looking at QB. It takes 2 to tango and you may not find the willing trade partner.

I agree Kirby. I've also thought from the Sammy trade on that this is not a tank. That would involve trading McCoy, maybe Tyrod, and lopping off high priced vets like K Williams , Wood etc.

[H2o]

They're not going to intentionally tank, but the schedule may bring us a top 5 pick. The defense will keep us in games. But up to this point, Tyrod hasn't been a guy to win us games with his arm. If Shady misses any time the offense will be abysmal. There are teams we have to watch out for, who I think may be in front of us, as far as drafting a QB. I think San Fran gets their guy in Cousins for 2018 and beyond. Jacksonville will definitely be in the QB market. The Jets without a doubt. The Browns may be in the market still, but I think Kizer might be their answer at the position. I have said all along he reminds me of Donovan McNabb and I'm sticking to that. Arizona is going to need a replacement for Palmer and soon. Don't be surprised if a few of these team with aging QB's start looking to the future like NO and the Chargers. It's all about Darnold and Allen if you ask me. Hopefully we are in a position to get one or the other.

Edited August 22, 2017 by H2o

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

The problem that people are failing to see is that there may not be a taker for all of that draft capital. Jets, 49ers, Jags, Dolphins, Browns and Cardinals can all be worse than the Bills. They could all be looking at QB. It takes 2 to tango and you may not find the willing trade partner.

EXXXXXACTLY

 

if we don't get a QB we're !@#$ed. Taylor is horrible.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I know everyone seems to struggle with nuance here.

 

Up until recently "tanking" was not part of the sports vocabulary. You can build something without tanking. That is what the Bills are doing.

 

• The Bills already have 6 picks in the top 100 next year. They will have great flexibility to go after a QB if they are dissatisfied with Taylor at the end of 2017.

• Peterman was picked to be a backup. Mid-round rookie QBs occasionally turn into Kirk Cousins, but regardless they are great ways to have cost-controlled backups who turn into future trade assets. New England has been doing this for years (Hoyer, Mallet, Jimmy G, etc.) We could get lucky with him, but right now he is completing 50% of his passes against the 2nd and 3rd stringers. He is not remotely prepared to start an NFL football game.

• Taylor could probably garner a 3rd rounder at this point - not a game-changer given the ammo the Bills already have. Somehow one bad preseason game proves that he cannot play and yet we could get great value for him. Okay.

• McCoy was traded 2 1/2 years ago and the Eagles got nothing. The Bills would not profit from that trade and he would represent a ton of dead money. Trading Kyle Williams would get what, a 5th round pick?

• The idea that the Boldin retirement would trigger a tank is bizarre and would truly mean that this team has no plan. Up until he signed, most Bills fans had given up on the idea that he was coming in the first place.

McDermott and Beane know that they are in the mushy middle of the AFC - nowhere close to Pats and Steelers, but several steps above the misery of Jags, Browns, and Jets. They HAVE to build for 2018 and beyond - and they have been doing that starting with the trade down for Tre White. The Watkins trade fits in that framework, but IT DOES NOT REPRESENT A TANK. Look at the Bovada odds - the Bills expected win total did not go down. Watkins or not, they are at best a wild-card team this year. They are like 10 other teams in the AFC that could win between 6 and 10 games depending on injuries, officiating, schedule, penalties, etc. The wild card is a worthy and realistic goal to compete for and would be a huge step towards where the team wants to go. Even if they go 7-9 again, McDermott wants this team "in the hunt" until December. It doesn't help him to start of his coaching career by going 3-13 with Nate Peterman. You are always on the clock in the NFL.

 

One great indicator of an executive's success is his/her ability to be future-oriented. If you read War Room you will see Belichick/Pioli were looking at the future, even as their '02 team unexpectedly went on a run and made the Super Bowl. Because of Brady's unexpected rise, the Pats have always been able to focus on the future. This is the way that McDermott and Beane are trying to run the team but it does not mean strip-mining the current roster.

 

 

Good read! I've still yet to see one defensible argument on tanking in the NFL as the best path to success

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

They're not going to intentionally tank, but the schedule may bring us a top 5 pick. The defense will keep us in games. But up to this point, Tyrod hasn't been a guy to win us games with his arm. If Shady misses any time the offense will be abysmal. There are teams we have to watch out for, who I think may be in front of us, as far as drafting a QB. I think San Fran gets their guy in Cousins for 2018 and beyond. Jacksonville will definitely be in the QB market. The Jets without a doubt. The Browns may be in the market still, but I think Kizer might be their answer at the position. I have said all along he reminds me of Donovan McNabb and I'm sticking to that. Arizona is going to need a replacement for Palmer and soon. Don't be surprised if a few of these team with aging QB's start looking to the future like NO and the Chargers. It's all about Darnold and Allen if you ask me. Hopefully we are in a position to get one or the other.

 

Why should it be "hopefully" when with willful action it CAN be.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

The problem that people are failing to see is that there may not be a taker for all of that draft capital. Jets, 49ers, Jags, Dolphins, Browns and Cardinals can all be worse than the Bills. They could all be looking at QB. It takes 2 to tango and you may not find the willing trade partner.

This is my worry. I highly doubt that we'd be picking ahead of the Jets and Niners. Both, especially the Jets, as desperate for a QB and I don't see the Jets giving a division rival first crack at QB.